Nevada Adds 2,800 Jobs in September to 1,394,100 While Unemployment Remains Unchanged at 4.5%

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1 For Immediate Release October 17, 2018 SEPTEMBER STATEWIDE LABOR MARKET RELEASE Nevada Adds 2,800 Jobs in September to 1,394,100 While Unemployment Remains Unchanged at 4.5% CARSON CITY, NV - The state s unemployment rate remained unchanged in September by holding steady at 4.5 percent over the month, but is down 0.4 percentage point over the year. Overall job growth is up 45,300 jobs and grew by 3.2 percent year-over-year. Nevada s over the year job growth rate has remained at or over three percent since July of this year, according to the state Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation s (DETR) September 2018 economic report. "I m excited to see that Nevada continues to have one of the fastest growing private sectors in the nation, Governor Brian Sandoval said. Our workforce demographics are continuing to improve and job levels have surged to record highs. What s more, our unemployment rate has been cut by more than nine full percentage points from its peak we must continue our efforts to ensure quality job opportunities for all Nevadans. DETR s report also notes that estimates show that Nevada s labor force has averaged 1.49 million through the third quarter of 2018, up from 1.45 million during the same period in The conditions of the State s labor market continue to fare well. Job growth has been fairly consistent of late, and appears to be trending at about 40,000 new jobs, on an annualized basis. Initial claims for unemployment insurance continued to improve this month and are at the lowest levels they ve been in two decades. Another positive indication of Nevada s recovery that should be noted is the improvement in the long-term unemployment rate, which remained high well into the current expansion. The longterm rate is 0.8 percent and is back to levels consistent with a healthy labor market. said David Schmidt, Chief Economist for DETR. Additional September Report Notes: The Statewide unemployment rate at 4.5% remained unchanged from last month, but is down 0.4 percentage point over the year. Unemployment in all age groups is on the downward trend and remains the lowest rate since July Over the month, seasonally-adjusted employment grew by 2,800 jobs to 1,394,100. The state added 43,500 jobs over the year (seasonally-adjusted), a gain of 3.2 percent. Initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits decreased to 8,289, the lowest level for any month since 1998.

2 Nevada s labor force has increased by 2.8 percent over the year through the third quarter of That compares to a one percent increase seen nationwide. Statewide, employment across all industries is projected to increase by 19.9 percent or 268,000 jobs over the ten-year period. Nevada s average personal income growth has exceeded that for the U.S. over 16 of the past 18 quarters. The manufacturing industry s year-to-date average employment growth is experiencing record highs and is up nearly 14 percent (6,500 jobs) over the same period last year. The construction industry s year-to-date average employment growth has seen the largest nominal gains over the same period last year, increasing by 7,500 jobs or 9.1 percent. Nevada s Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund ended the first half of 2018 with a balance of $1.29 billion, another record level. Year-to-date through September, 226,872 ads have been posted for jobs in Nevada, an increase of 64,000 (39.3 percent) from the same period last year. ---###--- Visit us and Follow us on Twitter: ABOUT THE RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS BUREAU The Research and Analysis Bureau is Nevada s premier source for labor market information. A part of DETR, the Bureau is responsible for creating, analyzing, and reporting Nevada s labor market information, in cooperation with the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

3 RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS BUREAU BRIAN SANDOVAL GOVERNOR DON SODERBERG DIRECTOR DAVID SCHMIDT CHIEF ECONOMIST NEVADA LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW September 2018 Nevada Recovery Scorecard 2018:IIIQ Employment In Nevada, 184,700 jobs were lost as the recession unfolded. Since then, 281,500 jobs have been added, with employment levels over 1.39 million. Nevada had the most pronounced private sector job losses in the nation during the recession. Currently, Nevada has the 4 th fastest-growing private sector in the nation.* Small businesses in Nevada support 634,000 jobs, nearly 48,000 more than the previous peak reached in 2007 and 124,000 more than at the depth of the recession.* The number of employers in Nevada stands at 70,960, the highest reading on record and an increase of 15,000 since the recession. ** Unemployment Nevada s unemployment rate reached a high of 13.7 percent during the Great Recession. Since then, the jobless rate has decreased by over nine full percentage points, to 4.5 percent. Initial claims for unemployment insurance peaked at a 12-month average of 28,600 per month during the recession. Since then, that measure has dropped by over 71 percent to 8,290 claims. Trust fund balance at record high of nearly $1.3 billion, after reaching a low of negative $798.9 million during the recession.** Wages Average weekly wages in Nevada are $977, a new record-high and up 4.9% over the year.* * QCEW data is for 2018:IQ ** Number of employers and Trust Fund balance are from 2018:IIQ, low from 2012:IQ Nevada Nonfarm Jobs: August - September Change Expected Seasonally Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted Change Movement Change Total Nonfarm Jobs 9,700 6,900 2,800 Private Sector 1,200-1,100 2,300 Public Sector 8,500 8, Labor market information from the third quarter (July through September) of 2018 has been released, allowing us to once again take stock of Nevada s progress over the course of the economic expansion via the Silver State s quarterly Recovery Scorecard. The State continues to see positive trends across a range of measures, including ongoing job gains, the 4th fastest-growing private sector in the nation, strong small business employment, and low unemployment rates and unemployment insurance claims activity. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released 2018:IQ personal income data. Personal income is the income received by all persons from all sources: net earnings, property income, and personal current transfer receipts. It is one of the broadest measures of economic activity at the state-level. Information for the second quarter of 2018 shows personal income in Nevada reached $145 billion, up 5.8 percent from a year ago. In fact, personal income has increased in 32 of the past 33 quarters starting late Nevada s average personal income growth has exceeded that for the U.S. over 16 of the past 18 quarters. During 2018:IIQ, personal income in the nation as a whole grew 4.6 percent, 1.17 percentage point below the 500 E. Third St. Carson City, Nevada (775) Fax (775)

4 Silver State s gain. Nevada s year-overyear growth is the 3rd strongest in the U.S. Since the beginning of 2014, income gains in Nevada averaged 5.9 percent, annually compared to 4.4 percent in the U.S. Nevada saw 2,800 new jobs in September, seasonally-adjusted, bringing total employment to 1,394,100. This month s overthe-month gain was 3,200 jobs lower than the Statewide increase seen in September of The August estimate was revised up by 1,900, bringing the total two-month gain to 5,900 jobs. September s positive seasonally adjusted gain comes as a result of the State adding 9,700 jobs, unadjusted, when only 6,900 jobs were expected to be added based on historical patterns. The private sector saw the largest share of gains, adding 2,300 jobs, while the public sector added 500. The Silver State has added 43,500 jobs since the same month last year, a gain of 3.2 percent. National employment grew by 1.7 percent over the period, meaning the Silver State is growing almost twice as fast as the national average. Year to date, manufacturing is growing at the fastest rate (up 14.8 percent), after adding annual job growth (SA) 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Nevada Job Growth vs. Year Ago O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S '17 '18 jobs pct. change 6,900 through September (versus the same period last year). Construction has added the most jobs, with a gain of 7,800 or 9.5 percent. Education and health services grew by five percent and other services grew by 4.9 percent. Information remains the only sector to see fewer jobs year to date. In the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Program, the Research and Analysis Bureau collects and compiles employment and wage data for workers covered by Nevada unemployment insurance laws, and federal civilian workers covered by Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% annual percent change Nevada Nonfarm Job Growth by Industry Construction Manufacturing Education & Health Services Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Government Professional & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Financial Activities Mining & Logging Information -1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 YTD job growth Much thought has been given to diversify the State s economy over the years. This month we analyze the composition of industries in the Silver State and how it changed from 2012 to In recent history, Nevada s largest industry in absolute terms and as a percentage of total workforce has been accommodation and food services. In 2017, this industry accounted for 24 percent of total employment. This represents a decrease from 25.8 percent in 2012.

5 Industries who saw an increase in their share of total employment were construction, administrative and waste services, and transportation and warehousing up by 1.68 percent,.74 percent, and.49 percent respectively. The industries, in addition to accommodation and food services, that experienced a decrease in their share of total employment were retail trade, -.69 percent, and public administration,.6 percent. As a further indication that the State s economy is diversifying, in 2017 there were 16 industries that accounted for at least two percent of total employment. This compares to 2012, where there were 14 industries which accounted for the same share. Statewide, employment across all industries is projected to increase by 19.9 percent or 268,000 jobs over the ten-year period. Industries with the largest projected nominal job growth over the ten-year period consist of food services/drinking places (+31,376 jobs, $422/week), administrative/support services (+21,976, $630/week), accommodation, including hotels/motels (+17,704, $804/week), educational services (+17,096, $884/week), specialty trade contractors (+16,996, $1,030/ week), and professional/scientific/technical services (+14,366, $1,431/week). In total, these industries account for nearly 119,500 jobs or 45 percent of all job growth to be added in the State by Industries with the fastest cumulative annual growth rates consist of electrical equipment/ component manufacturing (28.17 percent, $1,295/week), crop production (4.62percent, $724/week), beverage and tobacco product manufacturing (4.49percent, $980/week), warehousing/storage (3.37 percent, $728/ week), textile product mills (3.37 percent, $713/week), and data processing/hosting/ services (3.35 percent, $1,877/week). Sizable employment growth is projected in high wage industries such as electrical equipment/component manufacturing, data processing/hosting/services, specialty trade contractors, and professional/scientific /technical services which are projected to expand their employment levels by nearly 1100 percent, 39 percent, 30 percent and 26 percent respectively. Collectively, 45,000 jobs are projected to be created in these industries, all which pay average weekly wages greater than $1,000, well above the Statewide average of $977. The industries with high growth rates contain small existing employment bases, which can explain why such fast growth is expected over the ten-year term. Long-term diversification is a process that takes time but the State is beginning to add a high number of jobs in industries unfamiliar to the past. All told, we expect Nevada s long-term employment to continue to expand and to be one of the fastest growing in the nation. The unemployment rate in Nevada remained unchanged from August, holding steady at 4.5 percent in September. This is down from 4.9 percent a year ago, and is the lowest rate since July 2007, nearly eleven years ago. Nationally, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point from July, to 3.7 percent in September, and is the lowest rate since December of The gap between Nevada s rate and the nation s now stands at 0.8 percentage point, increasing by 0.2 percentage point this month. Information from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program, produced by state agencies in cooperation and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, allows us to assess growth/decline in Nevada s labor force, employment, unemployment and the unemployment rate (unemployment-labor force ratio). Estimates show that Nevada s labor force

6 16% 14% 12% Unemployment Rate: Nevada vs. U.S. During the period, when labor market conditions were healthy in the Silver State, the long-term unemployment rate averaged 0.7 percent. unemployment rate (SA) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 18 Nevada U.S. has averaged 1.49 million through the third quarter of 2018, up from 1.45 million during the same period in This translates into an increase of 40,750 more Nevadans in the labor force, either working or actively seeking employment. Over the same period, employment increased by 45,450. The number of unemployed fell by 4,700 relative to the third quarter of These trends have resulted in a slight decline in the unemployment rate. Through the third quarter of 2017, the unemployment rate averaged 5.1 percent. With solid employment growth and a reduction in unemployment, it has declined to 4.7 percent through September of this year. Nevada s labor force has increased by 2.8 percent over the year through the third quarter of That compares to a one percent increase seen nationwide. Information from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), allows for the analysis of the Nevada s long-term unemployment rate from the monthly CPS. Those counted amongst the long-term unemployed have been without a job for at least 27 weeks. Toward the end of the 2007 recession, the long-term unemployment rate peaked at seven percent in late Since then, it has declined significantly. For the past five months, the rate has been below one percent. For the 12-month period ending in September 2018, the long-term rate is 0.8 percent, down 6.2 percentage points from the peak. Rates in the second half of this year have started to become close to our average rates prior to the recession. During the 2007 recession, the number of long-term unemployed in Nevada totaled 92,900. For year ending in September 2018 the number of Nevadans unemployed for 27 weeks or more stands at 12,270. Information from the CPS also allows for the analysis of the unemployment rate in the Silver State by race. In early 2006, the unemployment rate for Blacks was 7.4 percent (expressed as a 12-month moving average), compared to that for Whites at four percent. The rate for people of Hispanic origin was 4.1 percent. The unemployment rate for Blacks peaked at 22.6 percent in early 2012, while the rate for Whites topped out at 13.9 percent in late The rate for Hispanics peaked at 18.7 percent in mid For year ending in September 2018, Blacks have an unemployment rate of 7.1 percent, down from 10.5 percent a year ago. The rate for Whites is 4.2 percent, down from 4.7 percent last year. The rate for Hispanics stands at 5.4 percent slightly up from 5.1 percent

7 last year. In September the overall unemployment rate is 4.6 percent 1. The BLS, indicates that labor market differences across racial groups are associated with many factors, not all of which are measurable. These factors include variations across the groups in educational attainment, the occupations and industries in which they work, and the geographic areas in which the groups are concentrated (including urban or rural settings). In addition to information by race, the CPS also allows for the analysis of the labor market status of the Silver State s veteran population. The CPS estimates for veteran unemployment rate are available since According to the BLS, Veterans are men and women who previously served on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces and who were civilians at the time they were surveyed. In January 2007, the veteran unemployment rate in Nevada stood at 2.6 percent (expressed as a 12-month moving average), compared to 3.7 percent nationwide. During the 2007 economic downturn, Nevada s rate exceeded the national average by more than six percentage points. At its peak in mid-2011, the veteran unemployment rate stood at 14.7 percent. Nationwide, the veteran rate peaked at 8.7 percent in early However, since 2012, considerable improvement is evident, as the veteran unemployment rate in the Silver State tumbled all the way down to an average of 4.2 percent in late Nationwide, the veteran rate was 4.3 percent in For the first time in nearly a decade Nevada s veteran unemployment rate fell lower than the nations. As of September 2018, veterans in Nevada have an unemployment rate of five percent, compared to 3.5 percent in the nation as a whole. The nation s rate is 1.5 percentage points lower than Nevada. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple measure: the ratio of the labor force relative to the population (16 years and older). It measures the extent to which Nevadans are participating in the workforce, either as workers or job seekers. The CPS also allows for the analysis of LFPR estimates dating back to In the Silver State, the LFPR topped out at 73.6 percent in mid-1982; measured on a 12-month moving average. During the same period, the U.S. rate stood at 63.8 percent. In fact, from 1977 to early 2016 the Silver State s LFPR was higher than the nation s, which amounts to nearly four decades. Since early-2016 Nevada s LFPR has been below the nation s by less than one percentage point. As of September 2018, the LFPR in Nevada stands at 62.4 percent compared to 62.8 percent nationwide. This September is up from 62.1 percent a year ago. Information about the LFPR by race in the Silver State is available in the CPS estimates dating back to In 2004, Whites LFPR averaged 66.5 percent compared to 65 percent for Blacks. The LFPR for people of Hispanic origin was 73.1 percent. The LFPR for the State as a whole during this period was 66.9 percent. As of September 2018, the LFPR for Whites stands at 61.8 percent, the LFPR for Blacks is 65.5 percent, and the LFPR for Hispanics is 71 percent. CPS estimates show that Hispanics LFPR tends to be higher compare to the that of Whites and Blacks. Also, over time all race groups follow similar trends. The CPS 2 also allows for the analysis of fulltime and part-time employment by industry in Nevada. Full-time workers include those persons who usually work 35 hours or more during the week. Part-time workers include those who typically work less than 35 hours 1 It should be noted that utilizing information solely from the CPS results in a slightly different total unemployment rate than what is officially reported. The State s official rate incorporates information regarding job trends and unemployment insurance claims activity into the calculation, in addition to CPS results. 2 The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households. Respondents are interviewed to obtain information about the employment status of each member of the household 16 years of age and older. Each employed person is counted only once, even if he or she holds more than one job.

8 during the week. Information from the CPS, available since 1994, provides employment estimates for three major industries: manufacturing, retail trade, and wholesale trade. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 In the manufacturing industry from 20, to 2005, Nevadans employed full-time represented 93.4 percent 15,000 of total employment in the industry while those working part-time 10,000 accounted for 6.6 percent. By November 2009, full-time workers in 5,000 0 manufacturing fell to 71.6 percent of total employment in the industry and part-time employment rose to 28.4 percent. The effects of the 2007 recession, in part, provoked the increase of part-time positions in From 2011 to Aug 2018, Nevadans employed full-time in manufacturing represented 91.3 percent of total manufacturing employment, while part-time accounted for 8.7 percent. As of August 2018, Nevadans employed full-time in manufacturing represented 93.1 percent of the industry while those working part-time accounted for 6.9 percent. Yearover-year full-time positions are up from 92.4 percent in August 2017 while part-time positions are down from 7.6 percent. During period, 89.7 percent of Nevadans in the wholesale trade industry worked full-time. Those working part-time accounted for 10.3 percent. By October 2014, full-time employment in wholesale trade fell to 87.5 percent of the total employment while part-time employment increased to 12.5 percent of the total as a result of the 2007 recession. From 2011 to August 2018, Nevadans employed full-time in wholesale trade represented 89.6 percent of total employment in the industry, while part-time accounted for only 10.4 percent. As of August 2018, Nevadans employed full-time in this industry accounted for 90.7 percent, while part-time employment stood at 9.3 percent. Year-overyear full-time positions are down from 91.4 Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 claims 12-month moving average percent in August 2017, while part-time positions are up from 8.6 percent. In the retail trade industry, Nevadans employed full-time represented 78.6 percent of total retail employment from 1994 to Those working part-time accounted for 21.4 percent. By December 2009, full-time employment in retail trade fell to 76.6 percent while part-time increased to 23.4 percent. The effects of the 2007 recession motivated the increase in part-time positions, realized in 2009, in the retail trade industry. From 2011 to August 2018, Nevadans employed full-time in retail trade represented 75.4 percent of total retail employment, while parttime accounted for 24.6 percent. As of August 2018, Nevadans employed full-time in retail trade accounted for 75.5 percent of the industry while part-time employment in retail trade stood at 24.5 percent. Year-over-year full-time positions are up from 74 percent in August 2017 while part-time positions are down from 26 percent. In the Silver State, employment gains have been concentrated in full-time positions in these three major industries. In the manufacturing and wholesale trade industries, full-time jobs have accounted for around 90 percent of all jobs. In the retail trade industry, full-time jobs have represented around 80

9 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Job Postings 12-Month Moving Average percent of total jobs. Nevada Online Job Postings Initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits totaled 8,290 this month, the lowest September reading for initial claims since Further, this is the lowest nominal reading since August September s initial claims are down by 8.6 percent, or almost 780 claims, relative to last September. This continues the trend of year-over-year declines in initial claims activity seen in each month of 2018, so far. These continued decreases are also putting downward pressure on multiple computed measures of UI trends. For example, the UI benefits exhaustion rate is down nearly 2.8 percentage points over the year, at 33.4 percent of claimants exhausting their UI benefits. Nevada s Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund ended the first half of 2018 with a balance of $1.29 billion, another record level. The most common measure of UI Trust Fund solvency is the Average High Cost Multiple (AHCM), which provides an estimate of the amount of time the current Trust Fund balance could pay benefits at the average of a state s three highest cost years in the last two decades. The federally recommended minimum AHCM is 1.0, which represents one year of benefits. With a balance of $1.29 billion, Nevada s current AHCM of 1.11 at the end of the second quarter of 2018 indicates that the Silver State s Trust Fund would cover just over 13 months of benefits if a similar recession were to occur. Alternatively, a more stringent measure of UI Trust Fund solvency would be the High Cost Multiple (HCM), which considers only the highest cost year in the past two decades. According to this measure, Nevada s UI Trust Fund could weather just over ten months of recessionary conditions similar to the worst recession year in Nevada s history. The solvency gap for this measure is $204.4 million. According to the latest UI Trust Fund forecasts, taking into account the newly recommended UI tax rate of 1.85 percent, down from 1.95 percent, a HCM of 1.0 will likely be achieved in the first quarter of Looking further out, an AHCM of 2.0 is likely to be achieved in the second quarter of 2022 if the tax rate remains the same through that period. With real-time labor market information obtained as part of DETR s Silver State Solutions Initiative, we can provide an alternative assessment of the health of the State s economy via an analysis of current online job posting activity 3. Year-to-date through September, 226,872 ads have been posted for jobs in Nevada, an increase of 64,000 (39.3 percent) from the same period last year. Full time jobs accounted for 83 percent of listings so far this year, a decline of 3.5 percent from Online job postings are obtained through DETR s Silver State Solutions initiative. Online job posting volume does not necessarily correlate with the level of job openings or hiring. Internal company hiring and union hiring are often not captured by online ads. High ad volume often occurs for occupations/ industries that are having difficulty finding qualified candidates, high turnover positions/recurring openings, or when companies are building large candidate pools. Online job postings should only be used with caution when developing/analyzing time series trends due to the constant changes in the rate of online advertising usage and in the methods used for collecting the data. 4 Not all job ads specify whether the advertised position is full-time or part-time. This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The U.S. Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/ or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.

10 Nevada Labor Market Briefing: September 2018 Special Topics

11 Recovery Scorecard * QCEW data is for 2018:IQ ** Number of employers and Trust Fund balance are from 2018:IIQ, low from 2012:IQ

12 Personal Income on the Rise in 32 of the Past 33 Quarters; Growth Trending Higher than the U.S., 3rd Strongest Gain in the Nation in 2018:IIQ Personal income in Nevada reached $145 billion, up 5.8% from a year ago. Nevada s average personal income growth has exceeded that for the U.S. over 16 of the past 18 quarters. Since the beginning of 2014, income gains in Nevada averaged 5.9% annually vs. 4.4% in the U.S. personal income; thousands of $; seasonally adjusted annual rates $160,000,000 $140,000,000 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $0 Personal Income in Nevada '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 percentage change personal income 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% year-over-year percentage change

13 Industry Concentration Over Time; Construction and Administrative and Waste Services Experiences Growth in Share of Total Employment All Others, 17.58% 72 - Accommodation and Food Services, 25.75% All others, 17.41% 72 - Accommodation and Food Services, 24.06% Manufacturing, 3.46% Manufacturing, 3.60% 54 - Professional and Technical Services, 4.25% 54 - Professional and Technical Services, 4.27% 23 - Construction, 4.58% 92 - Public Administration, 4.67% Retail Trade, 11.05% Transportation and Warehousing, 4.66% Retail Trade, 11.74% Transportation and Warehousing, 5.05% 92 - Public Administration, 5.26% 61 - Educational Services, 6.38% 56 - Administrative and Waste Services, 6.88% 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance, 9.46% 61 - Educational Services, 6.27% 23 - Construction, 6.27% 56 - Administrative and Waste Services, 7.62% 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance, 9.91%

14 Growth Projected in High Wages Industries Statewide : projected to increase by 19.9% or 268,000 jobs 6.0% Long-Term Industry Projections **335 - Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing (+12,875 jobs, $1,295/week)-not charted due to scaling {28% CAGR/4.8% of total growth by 2026} Largest projected nominal job growth: food services/ drinking places (+31,376 jobs, $422/week) Fastest annual growth rate consist of electrical equipment/component manufacturing (28.17%,13k jobs, $1,295/week) -Tesla 45,000 jobs are projected to be created in industries which pay average weekly wages greater than $1,000/week cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Crop Production (+921 jobs, $724/week) Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing (+271 jobs, $980/week) Textile Product Mills (+256 jobs, $713/week) Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services (+684 jobs, $1,877/week) Warehousing and Storage (+6,137 jobs, $728/week) Specialty Trade Contractors (+16,996 jobs, $1,030/week) Educational Services (+17,096 jobs, $884/week) Administrative and Support Services (+21,976 jobs, $630/week) Professional, Scientific, and Technical 1.0% Services (+14,366 jobs, $1,431/week) Food Services and Drinking Places (+31,376 jobs, $422/week) Accommodation, including Hotels and Motels (+17,704 jobs, $804/week) 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% fastest growing largest growing percent of total growth by 2026

15 Strong Growth in Labor Force Continues Through 2018 Third Quarter Nevada Labor Force (2018: IIIQ YTD average growth) labor force employment unemployment unemployment rate 2017: IIIQ YTD 1,458,740 1,383,670 75, % 2018: IIIQ YTD 1,499,490 1,429,120 70, % Change 40,750 45,450-4, % * Nevada s labor force has increased 2.8 percent over the year through 2018 third quarter That compares to one percent increase nationwide *Numbers in chart may not sum due to rounding.

16 Nevada s Long-Term Unemployment Rate Returns to Average Levels Associated with a Healthy Labor Market Long-term Unemployment Rate History: Peak, 2011: 7% or 92,900 Sep. 2018: 0.8% or 12,270 5 th month the rate is below 1% long-term unemployment rate; 12-month moving average 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD Nevada Long-term Unemployment Rate

17 Nevada s Unemployment Rate Trending Down in Multiple Race Categories Rate Peaks 2012, Black: 22.6% 2010, White:13.9% 2010, Hispanic: 18.7% Rates as of September 2018: Black : 7.1% White: 4.2% Hispanic: 5.4% unemployment rate; 12-month moving average 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Nevada Unemployment Rate by Race 0% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 White Hispanic Black total rate

18 Nevada s Veteran Unemployment Rate is Slightly Higher than in the Nation Jan. 2007: NV veteran UR 2.6% vs. US 3.7% 2011 peak: NV veteran UR 14.7% vs. US 8.7% 2016: NV veteran UR 4.2% vs. US 4.3% Sep. 2018: NV veteran UR 5% vs. US 3.5% veteran unemployment rate; 12-month moving average 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% '07 '08 NV vs. US Veteran Unemployment Rate '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD U.S. Nevada

19 Labor Force Participation Rate Varies Across Race Groups labor force participation rate; 12-month moving average 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% NV vs. US LFPR '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD NV U.S. As of September 2018, Nevada s LFPR is 62.4%, up from 62.1% a year ago. Compares to 62.8% nationwide labor force participation rate; 12-month moving average 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 Nevada LFPR by Race '09 '10 '11 White LFPR Hispanic LFPR Black LFPR NV LFPR As of September 2018, LFPR for Whites stands at 61.8%, Blacks is 65.5%, and Hispanics 71% '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD

20 Nevada s UI Trust Fund Balance Capable of Sustaining Ten to Twelve Months of Recession Conditions Trust Fund Balance as of 2018IIQ: $1.29 billion Nevada s current AHCM of 1.11 (13 months of benefits could be covered if a similar recession were to occur) Nevada s current HCM could weather just over ten months. The solvency gap for this measure is $204.4 million HCM of 1.0 will likely be achieved in the first quarter of AHCM vs. HCM AHCM of 2.0 is likely to be -1 achieved in the second quarter of 2022 if the tax rate remains 1.85% through AHCM HCM

21 High Concentrations of Full-time Employment in Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade, and Retail Trade full-time employment; 12-month moving average 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% Full-time vs. Part-time '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD manufacturing wholesale trade retail trade

22 NEVADA Employment & Unemployment September 2018 Employment Growth M/M Y/Y Y/Y% Nevada % (Seasonally Adjusted) Nevada % (Non-Seasonally Adjusted) United States 134 2, % (Seasonally Adjusted) (Employment in thousands) Unemployment Rates: Nevada Statewide 4.5% (Seasonally Adjusted) Nevada Statewide 4.4% (Non-Seasonally Adjusted) United States 3.7% (Seasonally Adjusted) Employment estimates are produced by the Current Employment Statistics program. Labor Force estimates are produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics program. Research and Analysis Bureau, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation operates these programs in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone (775)

23 Nevada Labor Force Summary Statewide (Estimates In Thousands) Sep-18 Sep-17 CHANGE % CHANGE Aug-18 Seasonally Adjusted LABOR FORCE % EMPLOYMENT % UNEMPLOYMENT % 68.0 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.5% 4.9% % Non-Seasonally Adjusted LABOR FORCE % EMPLOYMENT % UNEMPLOYMENT % 70.4 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.4% 4.9% % UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BASED ON UNROUNDED DATA Employment adjusted by census relationships to reflect number of persons by place of residence. Information compiled by DETR's Research & Analysis Bureau

24 Seasonally Adjusted Establishment Based Industrial Employment Nevada Statewide Total All Industries (Estimates In Thousands) Sep-18 Sep-17 CHANGE % CHANGE Aug % Natural Resources & Mining % 14.6 Construction % 92.3 Manufacturing % 55.2 Durable Goods % 36.8 Non-durable Goods % 18.4 Trade, Transportation & Utilities % Wholesale % 35.9 Retail % Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities % 70.8 Information % 14.6 Financial Activities % 66.1 Real Estate & Rental Leasing % 29.8 Professional & Business Services % Professional, Scientific and Technical % 60.0 Management of Companies and Enterprises % 26.9 Administrative & Support and Waste Mgt % Education and Health Services % Educational Services % 15.0 Health Care and Social Assistance % Leisure and Hospitality % Arts, Entertainment and Recreation % 32.0 Accommodation and Food Service % Other Services % 43.5 Government % Federal % 19.2 State % 43.6 Local % 104.7

25 Total All Industries Goods Producing Non-Seasonally Adjusted Establishment Based Industrial Employment Nevada Statewide (Estimates In Thousands) Sep-18 Sep-17 CHANGE % CHANGE Aug % % Natural Resources & Mining % 14.8 Metal Ore Mining % 11.2 Construction % 94.2 Construction of Buildings % 16.4 Specialty Trade Contractors % 69.9 Manufacturing % 55.3 Durable Goods % 36.9 Miscellaneous durable goods % 7.1 Other Miscellaneous (Includes Slot Mfg.) % 6.4 Non-durable Goods % 18.4 Service Providing % Private Service Providing % Trade, Transportation & Utilities % Wholesale % 35.9 Retail % Food & Beverage Stores % 24.2 Health and Personal Care Stores % 9.3 Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities % 70.7 Utilities % 4.0 Transportation & Warehousing % 66.7 Air Transportation % 7.3 Transit and Ground Passenger % 12.7 Taxi and Limousine Service % 8.2 Information % 14.5 Telecommunications % 3.9 Financial Activities % 65.9 Finance and Insurance % 36.0 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities % 19.8 Real Estate & Rental Leasing % 29.9 Professional & Business Services % Professional, Scientific and Technical % 59.5 Management of Companies % 27.1 Administrative & Support and Waste Mgt % Administrative & Support Services % 99.5 Employment Services % 22.8 Education and Health Services % Educational Services % 14.5 Health Care and Social Assistance % Ambulatory Health Care Services % 57.6 Hospitals % 31.2 Leisure and Hospitality % Arts, Entertainment and Recreation % 33.0 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries % 25.4 Accommodation and Food Service % Accommodation % Casino Hotels and Gaming % Casino Hotels % Gaming Industries % 9.7 Food Services and Drinking Places % Full-Service Restaurants % 63.2 Limited-Service Restaurants % 55.0 Other Services % 43.7 Government % Federal % 19.4 State % 40.8 Local % 100.5

26 2018 Seasonally Adjusted Industrial Employment (Estimates In Thousands) Nevada Statewide JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC AVERAGE Total All Industries Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-durable Goods Trade, Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Information Financial Activities Real Estate & Rental Leasing Professional & Business Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative & Support and Waste Mgt Education and Health Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Leisure and Hospitality Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Accommodation and Food Service Other Services Government Federal State Local Detail may not add due to rounding. This report reflects non-ag employment by place of work. It does not necessarily coincide with labor force concept. Includes multiple jobholders. Sep-18 Information compiled by DETR's Reseach & Analysis Bureau

27 2018 Non-Seasonally Adjusted Industrial Employment (Estimates In Thousands) Nevada Statewide JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC AVERAGE Total All Industries Goods Producing Natural Resources & Mining Metal Ore Mining Construction Construction of Buildings Specialty Trade Contractors Manufacturing Durable Goods Computer & Electronic Products Other Miscellaneous,Includes Slot Mfg Non-durable Goods Service Providing Private Service Providing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Retail Food & Beverage Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Utilities Transportation & Warehousing Air Transportation Transit and Ground Passenger Taxi and Limousine Service Information Telecommunications Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Credit Intermediation & Related Real Estate & Rental Leasing Professional & Business Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Management of Companies Administrative & Support and Waste Mgt Administrative & Support Services Employment Services Education and Health Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Ambulatory Health Care Services Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Service Accommodation Casino Hotels and Gaming Casino Hotels Gaming Industries Food Services and Drinking Places Full-Service Restaurants Limited-Service Restaurants Other Services Government Federal State Local Detail may not add due to rounding. This report reflects non-ag employment by place of work. It does not necessarily coincide with labor force concept. Includes multiple jobholders. Information compiled by DETR's Reseach & Analysis Bureau Sep-18

28 2018 LABOR FORCE SUMMARY DATA (Estimates In Thousands) Nevada Statewide JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG NEVADA SA* LABOR FORCE EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.7% NEVADA NSA** LABOR FORCE EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 4.7% 4.4% 4.7% Note: Unemployment rates are based on unrounded data. Sep-18 Employment adjusted by census relationships to reflect number of persons by place of residence. *Seasonally Adjusted **Non-Seasonally Adjusted