Vermont s Unemployment Rate at Historic Low

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1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 11, 2019 Contact: Mathew Barewicz, E & LMI Chief State of Vermont Department of Labor Mathew.Barewicz@vermont.gov Vermont s Unemployment Rate at Historic Low Today, the Vermont Department of Labor released data on the Vermont economy for the time period covering January According to household data, the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for January was 2.5 percent. This reflects a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised December rate. At 2.5 percent, this is the lowest monthly estimate for the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for Vermont since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics online historical series started in Commissioner s Message On its face, the idea of a historically low unemployment rate sounds like a positive outcome and for current job seekers, it is. However, for employers and the state overall, this level of unemployment is impeding economic growth. The lack of available individuals to work means Vermont businesses are having difficulty growing, and it is becoming harder for businesses to maintain current workforce size if an employee quits. The Department is actively working to get the message out there that there are great jobs in Vermont for individuals of all skillsets and backgrounds. Efforts to recruit need to be focused on bringing new workers into the state, and also bringing current residents back into the labor market. To learn about employment or training opportunities in your area, please contact one of the Department s 12 Career Resource Centers spread across the state, said Labor Commissioner Lindsay Kurrle. Chart 1. Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted Percent 6.0 Chart 2. Vermont Nonfarm Payroll Employment Thousands New England Vermont United States Seasonally Adjusted Unadjusted 0.0 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

2 State of Vermont Overview The Vermont seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate declined by one-tenth of one percentage point in January to a level of 2.5 percent. The comparable United States rate in January was 4.0 percent, which was an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised December estimate. The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for January show the Vermont civilian labor force increased by 71 from the prior month s revised estimate. The number of employed persons increased by 323 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 252. Changes to the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were statistically significant in the seasonallyadjusted series. The January unemployment rates for Vermont s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.0 percent in White River Junction and Woodstock to 5.8 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the January unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.8 percent which was an increase of five-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted December level and a decrease of five-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago. Analysis of Job Changes by Industry Not-Seasonally-Adjusted The preliminary not-seasonally-adjusted jobs estimates for January show a decrease of 8,700 jobs when compared to the revised December numbers. There was an increase of 4,100 jobs between the preliminary and the revised December estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly decrease seen in the January numbers was primarily attributable to seasonal activity related to education and construction. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the overthe-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary not-seasonally-adjusted January data, Total Private industries have increased by 2,300 jobs (0.9 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has increased by 600 jobs (1.1 percent) in the past year. Seasonally-Adjusted The seasonally-adjusted data for January reports a decrease of 1,200 jobs from the revised December data. As with the not-seasonally-adjusted data, this over-the-month change is from the revised December numbers which experienced an increase of 3,300 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in January varied at the sector level. Those with a notable increase include: Mining & Logging (+100 jobs or +14.3%), Manufacturing (+300 jobs or +1.0%), and Other Services (+100 jobs or +1.0%). Sectors with a notable decrease include: State Government (-1,200 jobs or -6.1%) and Private Educational Services (-400 jobs or -3.0%). The Unemployment and Jobs Report for February is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 22, 2019 at 10:00 a.m.

3 Table 1. Vermont Labor Force Estimates, seasonally adjusted Change From: January December January December January Civilian Labor Force 345, , , ,166 Employed 336, , , Unemployed 8,791 9,043 9, Unemployment Rate (%) Vermont s labor force, employment and unemployment statistics are produced from a combination of a Statewide survey of households and statistical modeling. The data are produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS), a cooperative program with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics ( and the Vermont Department of Labor ( Table 2. Vermont Labor Market Areas, Labor Force Estimates not seasonally adjusted January 2019 Unemployment Rate² (%) Labor Market Area ¹ Civilian Labor Force Employed Unemployed Jan-19 Dec-18 Jan-18 Vermont Total 344, ,975 9, Barre-Montpelier 25,827 24, Bennington 11,179 10, Brattleboro 22,072 21, Burlington-South Burlington 124, ,749 2, Derby 13,115 12, Highgate 10,116 9, Manchester 11,815 11, Middlebury 18,178 17, Morristown-Waterbury 17,866 17, Newbury 2,776 2, Northfield-Waitsfield 7,084 6, Randolph 7,258 7, Rutland 21,154 20, Springfield 11,375 11, St. Johnsbury 13,450 12, White River Junction 19,781 19, Woodstock 4,242 4, The area names above are common language titles; for official names of areas including encompassing cities and towns please refer to the Vermont Labor Market Area map ( 2 Rate is an estimate for number of unemployed divided by total labor force, expressed as a percent. Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS) produced by the Vermont Department of Labor ( in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (

4 Table 3. Vermont Nonfarm Payroll Employment, seasonally adjusted (thousands) NAICS Industry Jan-19 Dec-18 Jan-18 Change From: % Change From: Prelim Revised Revised Dec-18 Jan-18 Dec-18 Jan-18 Statewide, Total Nonfarm Total Private Mining, Logging and Construction Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Trade, Transportation and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans., Warehousing & Utilities Information Financial Activities Finance & Insurance Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Professional and Business Services Professional & Technical Services Administrative & Waste Services Education and Health Services Private Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Leisure and Hospitality Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services Other Services Government Federal State Local Burlington-S. Burlington Metro (NECTA) Total Nonfarm Source: Current Employment Statistics Program (CES) produced by the Economic and Labor Market Information Division, Vermont Department of Labor ( in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ( Estimates are preliminary and subject to revision. See Annual Summary for details.

5 Table 4. Vermont Nonfarm Payroll Employment, not seasonally adjusted NAICS Industry Jan-19 Dec-18 Jan-18 Change From: % Change From: Prelim Revised Revised Dec-18 Jan-18 Dec-18 Jan-18 TOTAL NONFARM 313, , ,900-8,700 2, TOTAL PRIVATE 258, , ,100-4,900 2, GOODS-PRODUCING 43,600 45,400 43,300-1, MINING, LOGGING AND CONSTRUCTION 13,500 15,100 14,200-1, Mining & Logging Construction 12,800 14,400 13,500-1, MANUFACTURING 30,100 30,300 29, , Durable Goods 18,800 19,000 17, Non-Durable Goods 11,300 11,300 11, Food Mfg. 5,400 5,400 5, SERVICE-PROVIDING 270, , ,600-6,900 2, TRADE, TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITES 53,700 55,100 54,300-1, Wholesale Trade 9,200 9,300 8, Retail Trade 36,700 37,500 37, Food & Beverage Stores 10,000 10,100 10, General Merchandise Stores 3,400 3,500 3, Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 7,800 8,300 8, Transportation & Warehousing 6,600 7,100 6, Utilities 1,200 1,200 1, INFORMATION 4,300 4,300 4, FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES 11,600 11,700 11, Finance & Insurance 8,800 8,800 9, Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 2,800 2,900 2, PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES 27,900 28,700 27, Professional & Technical Services 14,100 14,500 14, Administrative & Waste Services 11,600 12,100 11, EDUCATION AND HEALTH SERVICES 66,000 67,400 65,100-1, Educational Services 12,900 13,800 13, Colleges and Universities 8,000 8,600 8, Health Care & Social Assistance 53,100 53,600 51, , Ambulatory Health Care Services 18,000 17,900 17, Hospitals 14,700 14,700 14, Nursing & Residential Care Facilities 7,400 7,500 7, Social Assistance 13,000 13,500 12, LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY 41,400 40,600 39, , Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 4,300 4,300 4, Accommodation & Food Services 37,100 36,300 35, , Accommodation 16,100 15,000 15,700 1, Hotels & Motels 15,000 14,000 14,700 1, Food Services & Drinking Places 21,000 21,300 20, , OTHER SERVICES 9,900 10,100 9, GOVERNMENT 55,400 59,200 54,800-3, Federal Government 7,000 7,000 7, State Government Education 8,500 11,400 7,900-2, Other State Government 9,600 9,400 9, Local Government Education 22,900 23,900 23,100-1, Other Local Government 7,400 7,500 7, Source: Current Employment Statistics Program (CES) produced by the Economic and Labor Market Information Division, Vermont Department of Labor ( in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ( Estimates are preliminary and subject to revision. See Annual Summary for details. ###