Nevada. Economy In Brief. September 2018

Transcription

1 Nevada Economy In Brief A Monthly Review of Workforce and Economic Information Economic Summary Labor market information from the third quarter (July through September) of 2018 has been released, allowing us to once again take stock of Nevada s progress over the course of the economic expansion via the Silver State s quarterly Recovery Scorecard. The State continues to see positive trends across a range of measures, including ongoing job gains, the 4th fastest-growing private sector in the nation, strong small business employment, and low unemployment rates and unemployment insurance claims activity. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released 2018:IQ personal income data. Personal income is the income received by all persons from all sources: net earnings, property income, and personal current transfer receipts. It is one of the broadest measures of economic activity at the state-level. Information for the second quarter of 2018 shows personal income in Nevada reached $145 billion, up 5.8 percent from a year ago. Economic Indicators UNEMPLOYMENT RATES grew 4.6 percent, 1.17 percentage point below the Silver State s gain. Nevada s year-over-year growth is the 3rd strongest in the U.S. Since the beginning of 2014, income gains in Nevada averaged 5.9 percent, annually compared to 4.4 percent in the U.S. Nevada saw 2,800 new jobs in September, seasonally-adjusted, bringing total employment to 1,394,100. This month s over-themonth gain was 3,200 jobs lower than the Statewide increase seen in September of The August estimate was revised up by 1,900, bringing the total two-month gain to 5,900 jobs. September s positive seasonally adjusted gain comes as a result of the State adding 9,700 jobs, unadjusted, when only 6,900 jobs were expected to be added based on historical patterns. The private sector saw the largest share of gains, adding 2,300 jobs, while the public sector added 500. Nevada* Las Vegas MSA Reno-Sparks MSA Carson City MSA United States* 4.5% 4.7% 3.4% 4.2% 3.7% JOB GROWTH (YOY) Nevada* Las Vegas MSA* Reno-Sparks MSA* Carson City MSA* United States* 3.2% 3.5% 4.0% 1.6% 1.7% GAMING WIN (YOY) August 2018 Nevada Clark County - 7.7% % TAXABLE SALES (YOY) July 2018 Nevada Clark County Washoe County In fact, personal income has increased in 32 of the past 33 quarters starting late Nevada s average personal income growth has exceeded that for the U.S. over 16 of the past 18 quarters. During 2018:IIQ, personal income in the nation as a whole Year to date, manufacturing is growing at the fastest rate (up 14.8 percent), after adding 6,900 through September (versus the same period last year). Construction has Unemployment Rate by County Humboldt Elko Pershing Lander Eureka White Pine Churchill Lyon Storey P: (775) % 8.8% 7.2% *Seasonally Adjusted Washoe The Silver State has added 43,500 jobs since the same month last year, a gain of 3.2 percent. National employment grew by 1.7 percent over the period, meaning the Silver State is growing almost twice as fast as the national average. 7.4% Washoe County Carson Douglas Mineral Esmeralda Nye Lincoln Less Than or Equal to 4.0% Between 4.1% and 4.8% Clark Between 4.9% and 5.5% Between 5.6 and 6.3% Betweem 6.4 and 7.0% Greater Than or Equal to 7.1% RESEARCH Nevada s premier source of & workforce and economic ANALYSIS information and analysis

2 Economic Summary added the most jobs, with a gain of 7,800 or 9.5 percent. Education and health services grew by five percent and other services grew by 4.9 percent. Information remains the only sector to see fewer jobs year to date. In the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Program, the Research and Analysis Bureau collects and compiles employment and wage data for workers covered by Nevada unemployment insurance laws, and federal civilian workers covered by Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees Recovery Scorecard Much thought has been given to diversify the State s economy over the years. This month we analyze the composition of industries in the Silver State and how it changed from 2012 to In recent history, Nevada s largest industry in absolute terms and as a percentage of total workforce has been accommodation and food services. In 2017, this industry accounted for 24 percent of total employment. This represents a decrease from 25.8 percent in Industries who saw an increase in their share of total employment were construction, administrative and waste services, and transportation and warehousing up by 1.68 percent,.74 percent, and.49 percent respectively. The industries, in addition to accommodation and food services, that experienced a decrease in their share of total employment were retail trade, -.69 percent, and public administration,.6 percent. Personal Income on the Rise in 32 of the Past 33 Quarters; Growth Trending Higher than the U.S., 3rd Strongest Gain in the Nation in 2018:IIQ personal income; thousands of $; seasonally adjusted annual rates $160,000,000 $140,000,000 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 Personal Income in Nevada $0 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 percentage change personal income Industry Concentration Over Time; Construction and Administrative and Waste Services Experiences Growth in Share of Total Employ- 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% year-over-year percentage change As a further indication that the State s economy is diversifying, in 2017 there were 16 industries that accounted for at least two percent of total employment. This compares to 2012, where there were 14 industries which accounted for the same share. All Others, 17.58% Accommodation and Food Services, 25.75% All others, 17.41% Accommodation and Food Services, 24.06% Manufacturing, 3.46% Manufacturing, 3.60% Statewide, employment across all industries is projected to increase by 19.9 percent or 268,000 jobs over the ten-year period Professional and Technical Services, 4.25% 23 - Construction, 4.58% Transportation and Warehousing, 4.66% Retail Trade, 11.74% 54 - Professional and Technical Services, 4.27% 92 - Public Administration, 4.67% Transportation and Warehousing, 5.05% Retail Trade, 11.05% Industries with the largest projected nominal job growth over the ten-year period consist of food services/drinking places (+31,376 jobs, $422/ week), administrative/support services (+21,976, $630/week), accommodation, including hotels/ motels (+17,704, $804/week), educational ser Public Administration, 5.26% 61 - Educational Services, 6.38% 56 - Administrative and Waste Services, 6.88% 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance, 9.46% 61 - Educational Services, 6.27% 23 - Construction, 6.27% 56 - Administrative and Waste Services, 7.62% 62 - Health Care and Social Assistance, 9.91%

3 Economic Summary vices (+17,096, $884/week), specialty trade contractors (+16,996, $1,030/week), and professional/scientific/technical services (+14,366, $1,431/week). In total, these industries account for nearly 119,500 jobs or 45 percent of all job growth to be added in the State by Industries with the fastest cumulative annual growth rates consist of electrical equipment/ component manufacturing (28.17 percent, $1,295/week), crop production (4.62percent, $724/week), beverage and tobacco product manufacturing (4.49percent, $980/week), warehousing/storage (3.37 percent, $728/week), textile product mills (3.37 percent, $713/week), and data processing/hosting/services (3.35 percent, $1,877/week). Sizable employment growth is projected in high wage industries such as electrical equipment/ component manufacturing, data processing/ hosting/services, specialty trade contractors, and professional/scientific /technical services which are projected to expand their employment levels by nearly 1100 percent, 39 percent, 30 percent and 26 percent respectively. Collectively, 45,000 jobs are projected to be created in these industries, all which pay average weekly wages greater than $1,000, well above the Statewide average of $977. The industries with high growth rates contain small existing employment bases, which can explain why such fast growth is expected over the ten-year term. Long-term diversification is a process that takes time but the State is beginning to add a high number of jobs in industries unfamiliar to the past. All told, we expect Nevada s long-term employment to continue to expand and to be one of the fastest growing in the nation. The unemployment rate in Nevada remained unchanged from August, holding steady at 4.5 percent in September. This is down from 4.9 percent a year ago, and is the lowest rate since July 2007, nearly eleven years ago. Nationally, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point from July, to 3.7 percent in September, and is the lowest rate since December 1 It should be noted that utilizing information solely from the CPS results in a slightly different total unemployment rate than what is officially reported. The State s official rate incorporates information regarding job trends and unemployment insurance claims activity into the calculation, in addition to CPS results. cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Growth Projected in High Wages Industries Crop Production (+921 jobs, $724/week) Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing (+271 jobs, $980/week) Textile Product Mills (+256 jobs, $713/week) Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services (+684 jobs, $1,877/week) Warehousing and Storage (+6,137 jobs, $728/week) Long-Term Industry Projections **335 - Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing (+12,875 jobs, $1,295/week)-not charted due to scaling {28% CAGR/4.8% of total growth by 2026} Specialty Trade Contractors (+16,996 jobs, $1,030/week) Educational Services (+17,096 jobs, $884/week) Administrative and Support Services (+21,976 jobs, $630/week) Professional, Scientific, and Technical 1.0% Services (+14,366 jobs, $1,431/week) Food Services and Drinking Places (+31,376 jobs, $422/week) Accommodation, including Hotels and Motels (+17,704 jobs, $804/week) 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% fastest growing largest growing percent of total growth by 2026 Strong Growth in Labor Force Continues Through 2018 Third Quarter Nevada Labor Force (2018: IIIQ YTD average growth) labor force employment unemployment unemployment rate 2017: IIIQ YTD 1,458,740 1,383,670 75, % 2018: IIIQ YTD 1,499,490 1,429,120 70, % Change 40,750 45,450-4, % long-term unemployment rate; 12-month moving average Nevada s Long-Term Unemployment Rate Returns to Average Levels Associated with a Healthy Labor Market 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Nevada Long-term Unemployment Rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD

4 Economic Summary of The gap between Nevada s rate and the nation s now stands at 0.8 percentage point, increasing in by 0.2 percentage point this month. Information from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program, produced by state agencies in cooperation and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, allows us to assess growth/decline in Nevada s labor force, employment, unemployment and the unemployment rate (unemployment-labor force ratio). Estimates show that Nevada s labor force has averaged 1.49 million through the third quarter of 2018, up from 1.45 million during the same period in This translates into an increase of 40,750 more Nevadans in the labor force, either working or actively seeking employment. Over the same period, employment increased by 45,450. The number of unemployed fell by 4,700 relative to the third quarter of These trends have resulted in a slight decline in the unemployment rate. Through the third quarter of 2017, the unemployment rate averaged 5.1 percent. With solid employment growth and a reduction in unemployment, it has declined to 4.7 percent through September of this year. Nevada s labor force has increased by 2.8 percent over the year through the third quarter of That compares to a one percent increase seen nationwide. Information from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), allows for the analysis of the Nevada s long-term unemployment rate from the monthly CPS. Those counted amongst the long-term unemployed have been without a job for at least 27 weeks. During the period, when labor market conditions were healthy in the Silver State, the long-term unemployment rate averaged 0.7 percent. Toward the end of the 2007 recession, the longterm unemployment rate peaked at seven percent in late Since then, it has declined significantly. For the past five months, the rate has been below one percent. For the 12-month period ending in, the long-term rate is 0.8 percent, down 6.2 percentage points from the peak. Rates in the second half of this unemployment rate; 12-month moving average veteran unemployment rate; 12-month moving average Nevada s Unemployment Rate Trending Down in Multiple Race Categories 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Nevada Unemployment Rate by Race 0% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 White Hispanic Black total rate 16% 14% 12% 10% Nevada s Veteran Unemployment Rate is Slightly Higher than in the Nation 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% '07 '08 NV vs. US Veteran Unemployment Rate '09 '10 '11 U.S. '12 '13 Nevada '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD

5 Economic Summary year have started to become close to our average rates prior to the recession. During the 2007 recession, the number of long-term unemployed in Nevada totaled 92,900. For year ending in the number of Nevadans unemployed for 27 weeks or more stands at 12,270. Information from the CPS also allows for the analysis of the unemployment rate in the Silver State by race. In early 2006, the unemployment rate for Blacks was 7.4 percent (expressed as a 12-month moving average), compared to that for Whites at four percent. The rate for people of Hispanic origin was 4.1 percent. The unemployment rate for Blacks peaked at 22.6 percent in early 2012, while the rate for Whites topped out at 13.9 percent in late The rate for Hispanics peaked at 18.7 percent in mid For year ending in, Blacks have an unemployment rate of 7.1 percent, down from 10.5 percent a year ago. The rate for Whites is 4.2 percent, down from 4.7 percent last year. The rate for Hispanics stands at 5.4 percent slightly up from 5.1 percent last year. In September the overall unemployment rate is 4.6 percent 1. Halfway Through 2018, Nevada s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Balance Nearly $1.3 Billion labor force participation rate; 12-month moving average labor force participation rate; 12-month moving average 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% NV vs. US LFPR '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 NV U.S. Nevada LFPR by Race '09 '10 '11 White LFPR Hispanic LFPR Black LFPR NV LFPR '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD The BLS, indicates that labor market differences across racial groups are associated with many factors, not all of which are measurable. These factors include variations across the groups in educational attainment, the occupations and industries in which they work, and the geographic areas in which the groups are concentrated (including urban or rural settings) Nevada s UI Trust Fund Balance Capable of Sustaining Ten to AHCM vs. HCM In addition to information by race, the CPS also allows for the analysis of the labor market status of the Silver State s veteran population. The CPS estimates for veteran unemployment rate are available since According to the BLS, Veterans are men and women who previously served on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces and who were civilians at the time they were surveyed It should be noted that utilizing information solely from the CPS results in a slightly different total unemployment rate than what is officially reported. The State s official rate incorporates information regarding job trends and unemployment insurance claims activity into the calculation, in addition to CPS results. 0-1 AHCM HCM

6 Economic Summary In January 2007, the veteran unemployment rate in Nevada stood at 2.6 percent (expressed as a 12-month moving average), compared to 3.7 percent nationwide. During the 2007 economic downturn, Nevada s rate exceeded the national average by more than six percentage points. At its peak in mid-2011, the veteran unemployment rate stood at 14.7 percent. Nationwide, the veteran rate peaked at 8.7 percent in early However, since 2012, considerable improvement is evident, as the veteran unemployment rate in the Silver State tumbled all the way down to an average of 4.2 percent in late Nationwide, the veteran rate was 4.3 percent in For the first time in nearly a decade Nevada s veteran unemployment rate fell lower than the nations. As of, veterans in Nevada have an unemployment rate of five percent, compared to 3.5 percent in the nation as a whole. The nation s rate is 1.5 percentage points lower than Nevada. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple measure: the ratio of the labor force relative to the population (16 years and older). It measures the extent to which Nevadans are participating in the workforce, either as workers or job seekers. The CPS 2 also allows for the analysis of LFPR estimates dating back to In the Silver State, the LFPR topped out at 73.6 percent in mid-1982; measured on a 12-month moving average. During the same period, the U.S. rate stood at 63.8 percent. In fact, from 1977 to early 2016 the Silver State s LFPR was higher than the nation s, which amounts to nearly four decades. Since early-2016 Nevada s LFPR has been below the nation s by less than one percentage point. As of, the LFPR in Nevada stands at 62.4 percent compared to 62.8 percent nationwide. This September is up from 62.1 percent a year ago. full-time employment; 12-month moving average High Concentrations of Full-time Employment in Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade, and Retail Trade Twelve Months of Recession Conditions 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 YTD Information about the LFPR by race in the Silver State is available in the CPS estimates dating back to In 2004, Whites LFPR averaged 66.5 percent compared to 65 percent for Blacks. The LFPR for people of Hispanic origin was 73.1 percent. The LFPR for the State as a whole during this period was 66.9 percent. As of, the LFPR for Whites stands at 61.8 percent, the LFPR for Blacks is 65.5 percent, and the LFPR for Hispanics is 71 percent. CPS estimates show that Hispanics LFPR tends to be higher compare to the that of Whites and Blacks. Also, over time all race groups follow similar trends. The CPS 2 also allows for the analysis of full-time and part-time employment by industry in Nevada. Full-time workers include those persons who usually work 35 hours or more during the week. Full-time vs. Part-time manufacturing wholesale trade retail trade Part-time workers include those who typically work less than 35 hours during the week. Information from the CPS, available since 1994, provides employment estimates for three major industries: manufacturing, retail trade, and wholesale trade. In the manufacturing industry from 1994 to 2005, Nevadans employed full-time represented 93.4 percent of total employment in the industry while those working part-time accounted for 6.6 percent. By November 2009, full-time workers in manufacturing fell to 71.6 percent of total employment in the industry and part-time employment rose to 28.4 percent. The effects of the 2007 recession, in part, provoked the increase of part-time positions in From 2011 to Aug 2018, Nevadans employed full-time in manufacturing represented 91.3 percent of total manufacturing employment, while part-time accounted for 8.7 percent. As of August 2018, Nevadans employed 2 The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households. Respondents are interviewed to obtain information about the employment status of each member of the household 16 years of age and older. Each employed person is counted only once, even if he or she holds more than one job.

7 Economic Summary full-time in manufacturing represented 93.1 percent of the industry while those working part-time accounted for 6.9 percent. Year-over-year full-time positions are up from 92.4 percent in August 2017 while part-time positions are down from 7.6 percent. During period, 89.7 percent of Nevadans in the wholesale trade industry worked full-time. Those working part-time accounted for 10.3 percent. By October 2014, full-time employment in wholesale trade fell to 87.5 percent of the total employment while part-time employment increased to 12.5 percent of the total as a result of the 2007 recession. From 2011 to August 2018, Nevadans employed full-time in wholesale trade represented 89.6 percent of total employment in the industry, while part-time accounted for only 10.4 percent. As of August 2018, Nevadans employed full-time in this industry accounted for 90.7 percent, while parttime employment stood at 9.3 percent. Year-over-year full-time positions are down from 91.4 percent in August 2017, while part-time positions are up from 8.6 percent. In the retail trade industry, Nevadans employed full-time represented 78.6 percent of total retail employment from 1994 to Those working part-time accounted for 21.4 percent. By December 2009, full-time employment in retail trade fell to 76.6 percent while part-time increased to 23.4 percent. The effects of the 2007 recession motivated the increase in part-time positions, realized in 2009, in the retail trade industry. From 2011 to August 2018, Nevadans employed full-time in retail trade represented 75.4 percent of total retail employment, while parttime accounted for 24.6 percent. As of August 2018, Nevadans employed fulltime in retail trade accounted for 75.5 percent of the industry while part-time employment in retail trade stood at 24.5 percent. Year-over-year full-time positions are up from 74 percent in August 2017 while part-time positions are down from 26 percent. In the Silver State, employment gains have been concentrated in full-time positions in these three major industries. In the manufacturing and wholesale trade industries, full-time jobs have accounted for around 90 percent of all jobs. In the retail trade industry, fulltime jobs have represented around 80 percent of total jobs. Initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits totaled 8,290 this month, the lowest September reading for initial claims since Further, this is the lowest nominal reading since August September s initial claims are down by 8.6 percent, or almost 780 claims, relative to last September. This continues the trend of year-over-year declines in initial claims activity seen in each month of 2018, so far. These continued decreases are also putting downward pressure on multiple computed measures of UI trends. For example, the UI benefits exhaustion rate is down nearly 2.8 percentage points over the year, at 33.4 percent of claimants exhausting their UI benefits. Nevada s Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund ended the first half of 2018 with a balance of $1.29 billion, another record level. The most common measure of UI Trust Fund solvency is the Average High Cost Multiple (AHCM), which provides an estimate of the amount of time the current Trust Fund balance could pay benefits at the average of a state s three highest cost years in the last two decades. The federally recommended minimum AHCM is 1.0, which represents one year of benefits. With a balance of $1.29 billion, Nevada s current AHCM of 1.11 at the end of the second quarter of 2018 indicates that the Sil- ver State s Trust Fund would cover just over 13 months of benefits if a similar recession were to occur. Alternatively, a more stringent measure of UI Trust Fund solvency would be the High Cost Multiple (HCM), which considers only the highest cost year in the past two decades. According to this measure, Nevada s UI Trust Fund could weather just over ten months of recessionary conditions similar to the worst recession year in Nevada s history. The solvency gap for this measure is $204.4 million. According to the latest UI Trust Fund forecasts, taking into account the newly recommended UI tax rate of 1.85 percent, down from 1.95 percent, a HCM of 1.0 will likely be achieved in the first quarter of Looking further out, an AHCM of 2.0 is likely to be achieved in the second quarter of 2022 if the tax rate remains the same through that period. With real-time labor market information obtained as part of DETR s Silver State Solutions Initiative, we can provide an alternative assessment of the health of the State s economy via an analysis of current online job posting activity 3. Year-to-date through September, 226,872 ads have been posted for jobs in Nevada, an increase of 64,000 (39.3 percent) from the same period last year. Full time jobs accounted for 83 percent of listings so far this year, a decline of 3.5 percent from Online job postings are obtained through DETR s Silver State Solutions initiative. Online job posting volume does not necessarily correlate with the level of job openings or hiring. Internal company hiring and union hiring are often not captured by online ads. High ad volume often occurs for occupations/industries that are having difficulty finding qualified candidates, high turnover positions/recurring openings, or when companies are building large candidate pools. Online job postings should only be used with caution when developing/analyzing time series trends due to the constant changes in the rate of online advertising usage and in the methods used for collecting the data. 4 Not all job ads specify whether the advertised position is full time or part time.

8 Sub-State Economic Summary Statewide, seasonally adjusted employment increased by 2,800 jobs in September, relative to August. As for Nevada s major population centers, gains were realized in the Las Vegas and Reno metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) this month. Las Vegas employment saw a seasonally-adjusted increase of 3,700 jobs, the result of increasing by 7,400 jobs when only 3,700 were expected to be added. Reno employment realized a seasonally-adjusted increase of 300 jobs, the result of increasing by 3,100 jobs when an increase of only 2,800 jobs was expected in the area. Carson City employment remained unchanged and in line with seasonal expectations. Year-over-year employment increased in the State as a whole and in all MSAs in September. Reno and Las Vegas both added jobs at a faster rate than the State as a whole this month. Statewide, jobs increased by 3.2 percent, which correlates to 43,500 new jobs added since September of last year. Las Vegas accounted for the majority of nominal employment gains this month. In Las Vegas, jobs increased by 34,200 year over year, which correlates to a growth rate of 3.5 percent. Specifically, goods-producing industries added 9,200 jobs to payrolls while serviceproviding industries added 26, In Reno, 9,200 jobs were added over the year, translating to a growth rate of four percent. That area saw an increase of 3,400 goods-producing jobs and 5,100 service-providing jobs. In Carson City, 500 jobs were added relative to last year, resulting in a growth rate of 1.6 percent. That area saw an increase of 200 goods-producing jobs and 600 service-providing jobs. Transportation and Warehousing Has Higher Concentration in Reno-Sparks than in Similar Size Metropolitan Areas Industry Reno Fort Collins Provo Spokane Vallejo Accommodation and Food Services Heath Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Manufacturing Administrative and Waste Services Construction Professional and Technical Services Wholesale Trade Finance and Insurance Nevada s Economy Has Grown in Each Metropolitan Statistical Area 2017;GDP Growth on the Rise year-over-year growth 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Nevada MSA Gross Domestic Product In the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Program, the Research and Analysis Bureau collects and compiles employment and wage data for workers covered by Nevada unemployment insurance laws, and federal civilian workers covered by Unemployment Compensation for Fed- -15% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Las Vegas Reno Carson City 1 References to total MSA employment are adjusted for seasonality, whereas references to goods-producing and service-providing industries are not.

9 Sub-State Economic Summary eral Employees. This month, we analyze how the Reno- Sparks industry concentration compares to similar cities in the western United States. The rankings are based on that industry s (2-Digit NAICS) share of total employment in the respective MSA. Cities were chosen on the basis of being of similar population (2015) and geography similar to the Reno- Sparks MSA. Transportation and Warehousing is an industry where Reno-Sparks concentration far exceeds that of Fort Collins, Colorado, Provo, Utah, Spokane, Washington, and Vallejo, California. It ranks fourth in Reno- Sparks while being no higher than 10th in the others. Accommodation and food services is the number one industry in the Reno-Sparks area making it similar to the other metro areas listed. It ranks no lower than third in the other four cities. Retail trade and health care and social assistance rank the highest in the others. The top ten industries are fairly similar amongst all five metro areas albeit in different order with transportation and warehousing typically falling lower in the rankings. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) provides state gross domestic product (GDP) metro information, the most comprehensive measure of economic activity. GDP by metropolitan area is derived as the sum of the GDP originating in all the industries in the metropolitan area. This month, we analyze the GDP in each of the State s population centers. Gross domestic product in the Las Vegas MSA totaled $96.1 billion in Las Vegas s 2017 GDP is up $2.5 billion from 2016 or 2.7 percent. Since 2011, Las Vegas s GDP has increased over the year in each year leading up to Gross domestic product in the Reno MSA totaled $23.1 billion in Reno s GDP increased by 1.2 billion, or 5.6 percent from this same time in After experiencing two straight years of declines in GDP over the year in 2011 and 2012, the Reno MSA has realized steady increases in GDP since Carson City s GDP totaled three billion dollars in From 2016 to 2017, Carson City s GDP increased by $170 million, or 5.9 percent. Gross domestic product in Carson City has increased over the year in the last two years following decline seen in Labor Force Growing in Urban Areas; Up in Most Rural Counties 2018 Year-to-Date (through September) Change vs County labor unemployment employment unemployment force rate Clark 30,993 34,084-3, % Washoe 8,671 9, % Eureka % Mineral % Elko % Pershing % Lincoln % White Pine % Storey % Esmeralda % Lander % Carson City % Nye % Douglas % Humboldt % Churchill % Lyon % Unemployment rates decreased in all of the State s major population centers on year-over-year 2 and a month-over-month basis in September. In Las Vegas, the unemployment rate is at 4.7 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from from August, and down half a percentage point from September last year. Reno s unemployment rate is at 3.4 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from August, and down half a percentage point from this time last year. The unemployment rate in Carson City is at 4.2 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from August, and down 0.3 percentage point from September of last year. Unemployment rates declined on an over-the-year basis in 15 of 17 counties this month. Rate declines ranged from 0.2 percentage point (Lincoln) to 0.8 percentage point (Lander, Nye, and Pershing). Mineral and Esmeralda realized the only rate increases of half and 0.3 percentage point, respectively, this month. Nye, at 5.7 percent, has the highest unemployment rate in the Silver State this month. All counties remain below six percent unemployment in September with ten counties at or below four percent. Eureka, at 2.2 percent, is home to the State s lowest unemployment rate. Eureka s rate this month marks the lowest rate it s had on record which dates 2 The State s seasonally adjusted unemployment rates is 4.5 percent in September, unchanged from August and down from 4.9 percent in September Unemployment rates for the State s metropolitan areas and counties reported here are not adjusted for seasonality. Hence, comparisons to the State s seasonally adjusted rate should be avoided. Legitimate comparisons, however, can be made to the State s unadjusted rate percent in September, down from 4.7 percent in August and down from 4.9 percent in September 2017.

10 Sub-State Economic Summary back to Elko and Lander (both at three percent) also maintain relatively low unemployment rates. The Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program, produced by State agencies in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, allows us to assess growth/decline in each county s labor force, employment, unemployment and the unemployment rate (unemployment-labor force ratio). Figures mentioned below are not seasonally adjusted. Labor force includes those actively involved in the labor market, either employed or actively looking for work. For the purpose of this analysis, an urban area is defined as a metropolitan area, and all other areas are considered rural areas. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines metropolitan statistical areas as an area that has at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties. Over-the-year estimates through September 2018 show that labor force growth is concentrated in the State s urban areas: Clark County, Reno-Sparks (which includes Washoe County and Storey County), and Carson City. Urban areas in Nevada have been experiencing strong employment increases. Despite the decrease in unemployment, the other component of labor force, strong employment growth has led to an increase in overall labor force growth. This likely reflects that unemployed Nevadans are finding jobs. Clark County s labor force is up 30,990, Washoe s has increased by 8,670, Storey is up 71, and Carson City s is up 810 in 2018 through September, compared to the first nine months of last year. These urban areas show an increase in employment and a decrease in unemployment. Washoe s unemployment rate is down by half a percentage point relative to the first nine months of 2017, Storey s rate is down 0.6 percentage point, Clark County rate decline registered at 0.4 percentage point, while Carson City rate declined 0.3 percentage point. Similarly, half of the rural counties are showing the same pattern as the urban areas during this period. All six counties had an increase in employment and a decrease in unemployment. Although these areas have fewer industries compared to the urban area, they still have a broad distribution. On the other hand, the remaining seven rural counties had a reduction in labor force. Five experienced decreases in employment and unemployment, while Esmeralda had a decrease in employment and an increase in unemployment. These areas have a smaller number of industries and a higher concentration in mining. Over this period, only Esmeralda County saw an increase in unemployment. This increase reflects an increase in unemployment claims in the construction industry and in the mining industry. The largest declines in the unemployment rate are found in Lander (down 0.91 percentage points), followed by Humboldt with a decline of 0.69 and Nye with a decline of 0.64 percentage points. Statewide weekly unemployment insurance (UI) initial claims for unemployment insurance, using a 13-week moving average, have declined by nearly 7.11 percent through the end of September, when compared to the same period last year. However, this decrease was largely localized in Clark County, which experienced a decline of 6.6 percent, or more than 140 claims. Washoe County s initial claims declined by 15.2 percent, down 42 claims from a year ago. The only county to experience a marked increase in claims was Storey, up 16 claims in the reference period. The rest of the State s counties were stagnant or experienced nominal declines of no more than seven. Year-to-date online job posting activity decreased in 13 of 17 counties in September 3. Clark (+53,500) experienced the largest increase in ad volume over last year, totaling 163,800 ads yearto-date. Washoe has also seen a notable increase in ad volume over last year (+16,500), totaling 43,200 ads year-to-date. Eureka (+23) and Storey (+23), are the only other counties who saw increases in ad volume over last year. Carson City has realized the largest decrease of ads (-1,300) over last year, totaling 5,600 ads through September of this year. Other notable declines in job ads were realized in Douglas (-1,100), Elko (-1,100), and Churchill (-800) counties. Despite job posting volume being down in many of Nevada s smaller counties, Statewide job posting activity continues to show improvement. The State as a whole has posted 226,900 ads through September, up 64,000 ads over the year. 3 Online job postings are obtained through DETR s Silver State Solutions initiative. Online job posting volume does not necessarily correlate with the level of job openings or hiring. Internal company hiring and union hiring are often not captured by online ads. High ad volume often occurs for occupations/industries that are having difficulty finding qualified candidates, high turnover positions/recurring openings, or when companies are building large candidate pools. Online job postings should only be used with caution when developing/analyzing time series trends due to the constant changes in the rate of online advertising usage and in the methods used for collecting the data.

11 Trends at a Glance Industry Employment in April Over-the-Month Change Total seasonally adjusted jobs = 9,700 Las Vegas seasonally adjusted jobs = 7,400 Reno seasonally adjusted jobs = 3,100 Carson City seasonally adjusted jobs = 0 Nevada Nonfarm Jobs Seasonally Adjusted Change Expected Seasonally Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted Change Movement Change Total Nonfarm Jobs 9,700 6,900 2,800 Private Sector 1,200-1,100 2,300 Public Sector 8,500 8, Las Vegas 7,400 3,700 3,700 Reno 3,100 2, Carson City Annual Change 55,000 Nevada Job Growth (Seasonally Adjusted) 4.5% 1,394,100 non-farm jobs in March 50, % 43,5000 jobs added over-the-year September marks 93 straight months of growth in Nevada. annual job growth (SA) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20, % 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% annual percent change 15,000 10, % 5, % 0 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0.0% '17 '18 jobs pct. change Annual Growth Nevada = 3.2 percent U.S. = 1.7 percent Growth in Nevada has exceeded that in the U.S. for 74 straight months. employment; annual percent change 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Job Growth: Nevada vs. U.S. (Year-Over-Year Percent Change; Seasonally Adjusted) -10% -12% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Nevada U.S.

12 Trends at a Glance Industry Employment in April Year-to-Date Growth Las Vegas MSA = 3.1 percent year-to-date Reno-Sparks MSA = 4.1 percent year-to-date Carson City = 3.0 percent year-to-date job growth; annual percentage change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Job Growth by Region (Percent Change) Year-to-Date Change Construction added 7,800 jobs, more than any other sector. 0.0% '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Construction Manufacturing Las Vegas Reno Carson City Job Growth by Industry (Year-to-Date) Education & Health Services Ten sectors added jobs through May Total job growth = 45,200 jobs Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Government Professional & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Financial Activities Mining & Logging Information -1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 YTD job growth

13 Trends at a Glance Unemployment September Nevada = 4.5 percent; unchanged from August; down from 4.9 percent a year ago. U.S. = 3.7 percent; down 0.2 from August; down from 4.2 percent a year ago. 0.8 point gap between Nevada and the Nation compares to 4.4 points at the height of the recession. unemployment rate (SA) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Unemployment Rate: Nevada vs. U.S. (Seasonally Adjusted) 2% 0% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 18 Nevada U.S. September (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Nevada = 4.5 percent; down 0.4 percentage point from September Las Vegas-Paradise MSA = 4.7 percent; down 0.5 percentage points from September Reno-Sparks MSA = 3.4 percent; down 0.5 percentage points from September Carson City = 4.2 percent; down 0.3 percentage point from September unemployment rate 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Unemployment Rate by Metro Area 4.0% September (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Unemployment rates ranged from 5.7 percent (Nye) to 2.2 percent (Eureka). Clark = 4.7 percent; Washoe = 3.4 percent; Carson City = 4.2 percent. 3.0% O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S '16 '17 '18 Las Vegas Reno Carson City Unemployment Rate by County Nye Mineral Lyon Clark Nevada Lincoln Carson City Esmeralda Douglas Storey Churchill Pershing Washoe Humboldt White Pine Lander Elko Eureka 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% unemployment rate April 2017

14 Trends at a Glance Unemployment September Initial claims = 8,300 Exhaustion rate (the percentage of unemployment insurance claimants who exhausted UI benefits prior to finding a job) = percent. initial claims for unemployment insurance Nevada Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims and Exhaustion Rate 40,000 70% 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% exhaustion rate for unemployment insurance claims 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 claims 12-month moving average exhaustion rate 0%

15 Trends at a Glance Demographics of the Unemployed September Male unemployment rate = 4.6 percent; down 0.1 percentage point from August; down 0.8 percentage point from a year ago. Female unemployment rate = 4.7 percent; unchanged from August; down 0.3 percentage point from a year ago. 6% 5% 4% 3% Unemployment Rate by Gender (12-Month Moving Average) 2% 1% 0% Male September 2017 Female September White unemployment rate = 4.2 percent; down 0.1 percentage point from August; down 0.5 percentage point from a year ago. Black unemployment rate = 7.1 percent; up 0.1 percentage point from August; down 3.4 percentage points from a year ago. Hispanic unemployment rate = 5.3 percent; unchanged from August; up 0.2 percentage point from a year ago. 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Unemployment Rate by Ethnicity (12-Month Moving Average) 2% 0% White Black Hispanic September 2017 September Age unemployment rate = 8.1 percent; up 0.2 percentage point from August; down 2.7 percentage points from a year ago. Age unemployment rate = 5.3 percent; unchanged from August; up 0.5 percentage point from a year ago. Age unemployment rate = 3.3 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from August; unchanged from a year ago. Age unemployment rate = four percent; down 0.2 percentage point from August; down 0.7 percentage point from a year ago. Age 55+ unemployment rate = 3.7 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from August; down 0.8 percentage point from a year ago. 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Unemployment Rate by Age Group (12-Month Moving Average) Age Age Age Age Age 55+ September 2017

16 Trends at a Glance Demographics of the Unemployed September Veteran unemployment rate = five percent; unchanged from August; up 1.1 percentage point from a year ago. unemployment rate; 12-month moving average 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Unemployment Rate by Veterans Status (12-Month Moving Average) 0% September 2017

17 Trends at a Glance Economic Indicators August Gross gaming win = $913 million Down 7.7 percent year-over-year; up 2.1 percent year-to-date over $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 Nevada Gross Gaming Win (Millions of Dollars) $900 $800 $700 $600 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 gaming win 12-month moving average July Taxable sales = $5.05 billion Up 4.7 percent year-over-year $6,000 $5,500 Statewide Taxable Sales (Millions of Dollars) $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 taxable sales 12-month moving average August 3,555,000 visitors 7,800 visitor decrease from prior year (-0.2 percent); down 1.1 percent year-to-date over ,900,000 3,700,000 3,500,000 Las Vegas Visitor Volume 3,300,000 3,100,000 2,900,000 2,700,000 2,500,000 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 visitor volume 12-month moving average

18 Trends at a Glance Economic Indicators August 476,000 visitors 34,400 visitor decrease from prior year (6.7 percent); down 1.6 percent year-to-date over , , ,000 Reno Visitor Volume 400, , , ,000 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 visitor volume 12-month moving average

19 Trends at a Glance Real-Time Labor Market Information September For every job posting there are 3.8 unemployed persons, unchanged from September Unemployed per Online Job Posting Unemployed Per Posting 12-Month Moving Average September Jobs became available at a rate of 1.21 percent, indicating employment prospects are trending up. The job openings rate is the ratio of the number of online job postings to the sum of job postings and employment. 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% Job Openings Rate 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Job Openings Rate 12-Month Moving Average September For occupations earning above-average wages, physical therapists have the highest job openings rate. Occupations with Above Average Wages Job Openings Rates for Online Postings Physical Therapists Medical and Health Services Managers Food Service Managers Software Developers, Applications Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Managers, All Other Human Resources Specialists Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Registered Nurses General and Operations Managers 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

20 Trends at a Glance Real-Time Labor Market Information: Spotlight on Nevada September Nevada Job Postings Nevada online job postings total 30,500; up from 15,100 a year ago. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Job Postings 12-Month Moving Average September The industries with the most postings are traveler accommodation followed by general medical and surgical hospitals. Traveler Accommodation General Medical and Surgical Hospitals Restaurants and Other Eating Places Top Industries National Security and International Affairs Elementary and Secondary Schools Insurance Carriers Business Support Services Gambling Industries Depository Credit Intermediation Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Job Postings September The top occupations in demand are retail salespersons, followed by registered nurses. Retail Salespersons Registered Nurses Top Occupations Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing (except Technical and Scientific Products) Customer Service Representatives Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers All other Managers Hand Laborers for Freight/Stock/Material Movers Medical and Health Services Managers Applications Software Developers ,000 1,250 Job Postings

21 Trends at a Glance CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes August The Nevada Coincident Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy using an index of employment variables. The peak of the last employment cycle in Nevada occurred in March The coincident index then regressed steadily through October 2009, where it bottomed out. The August release tells a generally consistent, positive story for the coincident and leading indexes on a year-over-year basis. For the coincident index, the unemployment rate (inverted), household employment, nonfarm employment, and the insured unemployment rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident Employment Index For the coincident index, household employment, nonfarm employment, and the insured unemployment rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction while the unemployment rate (inverted) moved in a negative direction. 0 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Recessions Coincident Index August The Nevada Leading Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy, providing a signal about the future direction of the coincident index. For the current employment recession, the leading index provided a clear signal by peaking in January 2006, fourteen months before the coincident index reached its peak, and reached a bottom in May 2009, five months before the coincident index reached its bottom. For the leading index, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), the short-duration unemployment rate (inverted), construction employment, and the real 10-year Treasury interest rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction, while commercial permits and housing permits both moved in a negative direction. For the leading index, housing permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), the short-duration unemployment rate (inverted), and commercial permits moved in a positive direction, while construction employment and the real 10-year Treasury interest rate (inverted) moved in a negative direction CBER-DETR Nevada Leading Employment Index '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Recessions Leading Index