CBER Indexes for Nevada and Southern Nevada

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1 CBER Indexes for Nevada and Southern Nevada Published June 23, 2017 Stephen M. Miller, PhD, Director Nicolas Prada, Graduate Research Assistant

2 Summary of CBER s Nevada Indexes Coincident Index (March) Leading Index (April) Mo. to Mo. 0.8 % -0.9 % Taxable Sales Gross Gaming Revenue Nonfarm Initial Claims* 10-Year Treasury* Housing Commercial Airline Passengers S&P % 3.7% 0.1% -2.4% -0.1% 4.4% -12.3% -0.1% -0.6% 4.2 % 2.6 % Yr. to Yr. Taxable Sales Gross Gaming Revenue Nonfarm 15.1% 7.6% 3.1% Initial Claims* 10-Year Treasury* Housing Commercial Airline Passengers S&P % 0.6% 13.1% 11.0% 4.4% 13.7% Note: The coincident index is a month behind relative to other indexes because of a two-month delay in the release of taxable sales. * Inverted ** Data are partly forecasted as Henderson s permit reports are not available for March 2017 and onward 2

3 CBER s Indexes of Nevada Economic Activity Coincident Index Components Leading Index Components Nevada Taxable Sales Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue Nevada Nonfarm Nevada Initial Claims for Unemployment (inverted) Real 10-Year Treasury Rate (inverted) Nevada Housing Permits Nevada Commercial Permits Nevada Airline Passengers Standard & Poor s Stock Market Index The CBER Nevada coincident and leading indexes use the Department of Commerce index construction method. The CBER Nevada coincident index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy, while the CBER Nevada leading index provides an indication for the future direction of the coincident index. The coincident index provides the benchmark series that defines the business cycle or reference cycle in Nevada. The leading index then tracks the economy relative to that reference cycle. The coincident index peaked in February 2007 and then fell dramatically through June Prior to the Great Recession, identified by the benchmark Nevada coincident index, the Nevada leading index peaked in November 2005, 14 months before the Nevada coincident index peaked. Then the Nevada leading index troughed in May 2009, 13 months before the Nevada coincident index troughed. All series are seasonally adjusted (SA). A full description of the methodology used to construct the indexes can be found at: 3

4 Nevada Coincident Index The CBER Nevada coincident index continued to rise year-over-year in March Recession Coincident Index The CBER Nevada coincident index grew 0.8 percent monthover-month in March. All of its components increased on a monthly basis. Seasonally adjusted taxable sales and gaming revenue increased 6.0 and 3.7 percent, respectively, from February to March. Nonfarm employment was also higher in March, and although it grew at a slow rate of 0.1 percent, it reached a new historical maximum at over 1.3 million workers. On a yearly basis, all three components grew significantly. Taxable sales, in particular, posted its largest increase since March 2005, up 15.1 percent year-over-year in March. Gaming revenue and nonfarm employment also registered annual gains of 7.6 and 3.1 percent, respectively. The overall index continued its yearly upward trend in March, up by 4.2 percent, its largest increase in that month since the Great Recession. Series Date Latest Period Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year Taxable Sales (SA) Mar-17 4,994,855, % 15.1% Gaming Revenue (SA) Mar ,242, % 7.6% Nonfarm (SA) Mar-17 1,325, % 3.1% Overall Index Change Mar % 4.2% 4

5 Nevada Leading Index The CBER Nevada leading index fell month-over-month in April but rose from a year ago Recessions Leading Index Date Index Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year Apr % 2.3% May % 4.1% Jun % 1.4% Jul % 5.9% Aug % 6.5% Sep % 3.7% Oct % 2.8% Nov % 6.7% Dec % 4.7% Jan % 4.7% Feb % 0.3% Mar % 2.8% Apr % 2.6% The CBER Nevada leading index decreased 0.9 percent in April from the previous month. Nearly all of its components fell from a month ago. Commercial building permits posted a significant monthly decline of 12.3 percent. Similarly, seasonally adjusted Nevada airport passengers, the S&P 500 index, and initial claims for unemployment (inverted) fell 0.1, 0.6, and 2.4 percent, respectively. Also, the 10-year bond yield (inverted) decreased 0.1 percentage point in April. In contrast, residential permits increased from March to April, although at a slower-than-usual rate of 4.4 percent. On a yearly basis, however, the index rose 2.6 percent in April. In general, all six components registered higher levels compared to a year ago. Housing and commercial permits increased 13.1 and 11.0 percent, respectively, from April 2016, which mainly reflected higher construction activity in Washoe County. The S&P 500 index and the 10-year Treasury bond yield (inverted) posted annual gains of 13.7 percent and 0.6 percentage point, respectively, in April. Finally, the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) grew 2.3 percent, which reflected an improving labor market. 5

6 Summary of CBER s Southern Nevada Indexes - Coincident Index and Leading Index Coincident Index (March) Leading Index (April) Mo. to Mo. 1.2 % -0.3 % Taxable Sales Gross Gaming Revenue Nonfarm Initial Claims* 10-Year Treasury* Housing Commercial McCarran Passengers S&P % 3.3% -0.1% -2.4% -0.1% 6.8% -24.1% 0.1% -0.6% 4.0 % 1.3 % Yr. to Yr. Taxable Sales Gross Gaming Revenue Nonfarm Initial Claims* 10-Year Treasury* Housing Commercial McCarran Passengers S&P % 7.7% 3.1% 2.3% 0.6% -2.5% -17.4% 3.9% 13.7% Note: The coincident index is a month behind relative to other indexes because of a two-month delay in the release of taxable sales. * Inverted ** Data are partly forecasted as Henderson s permit reports are not available for March 2017 and onward 6

7 Summary of CBER s Southern Nevada Indexes - Construction Index and Tourism Index Construction Index (April) Tourism Index (April) Mo. to Mo. 0.6 % -0.3 % Construction Housing Permits* Commercial Permits* McCarran Passengers Gross Gaming Revenue LV Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate 4.6% 6.8% -24.1% 0.1% -2.9% -0.8% Yr. to Yr. 2.9 % 1.0 % Construction Housing Permits* Commercial Permits* McCarran Passengers Gross Gaming Revenue LV Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate 16.0% -2.5% -17.4% 3.9% 1.3% 1.1% * Data are partly forecasted as Henderson s permit reports are not available for March 2017 and onward 7

CBER s Indexes of Southern Nevada Economic Activity Coincident Index Leading Index Construction Index Tourism Index CC Taxable Sales CC Gaming Revenue CC Nonfarm NV Initial Claims for Unemployment

8 CBER s Indexes of Southern Nevada Economic Activity Coincident Index Leading Index Construction Index Tourism Index CC Taxable Sales CC Gaming Revenue CC Nonfarm NV Initial Claims for Unemployment (inverted) Real 10-Year Treasury Rate (inverted) CC Housing Permits CC Commercial Permits McCarran Passengers S&P 500 CC Construction CC Housing Permits CC Commercial Permits McCarran Passengers CC Gaming Revenue LV Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate Note: CC = Clark County The CBER Southern Nevada coincident and leading indexes use the Department of Commerce index construction method. The coincident index measures the ups and downs of the Southern Nevada economy. The leading index provides a signal about the future direction of the coincident index. The coincident index peaked in February 2007 and then fell dramatically through June Prior to the Great Recession, identified by the benchmark Southern Nevada coincident index, the Southern Nevada leading index peaked in September 2005, 16 months before the Southern Nevada coincident index peaked. Then the Southern Nevada leading index troughed in May 2009, 13 months before the Southern Nevada coincident indexed troughed. Finally, both the CBER Southern Nevada construction and tourism indexes also use the Department of Commerce index construction method. All series are SA. 8

9 Southern Nevada Coincident Index The CBER Southern Nevada coincident index rose on a monthly and yearly basis in March Recession Coincident Index The CBER Southern Nevada coincident index rose 1.2 percent in March from the previous month, recovering its loss in February. This increase resulted from monthly gains in taxable sales and gaming revenue. As shown in the table below, taxable sales and gaming revenue registered gains of 7.1 and 3.3 percent, respectively, compared to February Nonfarm employment, however, fell 0.1 percent in March from a month ago, after five consecutive months of expansion. On a yearly basis, all three components rose in March. Clark County taxable sales and gaming revenue were up strongly by 10.0 and 7.7 percent, respectively. Also, nonfarm employment continued to grow at 3.1 percent from last year. These gains resulted in a robust 4.0 percent yearly increase of the Southern Nevada coincident index. Series Date Latest Period Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year Taxable Sales (SA) Mar-17 3,546,365, % 10.0% Gaming Revenue (SA) Mar ,413, % 7.7% Nonfarm (SA) Mar , % 3.1% Overall Index Change Mar % 4.0% 9

10 Southern Nevada Leading Index The CBER Southern Nevada leading index fell slightly month-over-month but increased from a year ago. Date Index Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year Apr % 1.8% May % 1.6% Jun % 1.6% Jul % 1.0% Aug % 1.6% Sep % 2.3% Oct % 1.3% Nov % 2.0% Dec % 2.0% Jan % 2.2% Feb % 1.3% Mar % 2.2% Apr % 1.3% Recessions Leading Index The CBER Southern Nevada leading index posted a slight monthly decrease in February of 0.3 percent, mainly due to a large monthly drop in commercial building permits, down by 24.1 percent in April. In contrast, residential permits increased 6.8 percent. Among the other components, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) and the S&P 500 index, declined 2.4 and 0.6 percent. Also, the 10-year Treasury bond yield (inverted) registered a lower rate in April, slightly down by 0.1 percentage point. The overall index, however, posted a 1.3 increase compared to April of last year. This increase resulted from firm gains in the S&P 500 index, McCarran airport passengers, and initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), up by 13.7, 3.9 and 2.3 percent, respectively. Additionally, the inverted 10-year bond yield increased 0.6 percentage point in April. In contrast, housing and commercial building permits fell on an annual basis, down by 2.5 and 17.4 percent, respectively, compared to April Despite lower construction activity compared to a year ago, the CBER leading index for Southern Nevada was higher in April

11 Southern Nevada Construction Index The CBER Southern Nevada construction index was higher in April compared to a month and year ago Recession Construction Index The CBER Southern Nevada construction index posted a slight monthly increase of 0.6 percent in April. Construction employment, in particular, climbed 4.6 percent, the highest monthly rate registered in more than a decade. This increase reflected continued strengthening of the construction industry. Similarly, housing permits rose 6.8 percent in April after three months of consecutive drops. Although commercial building permits fell significantly on a monthly basis (24.1 percent), the overall index registered a monthly gain. Construction permits fell year-over-year in April. In particular, commercial and residential permits fell 17.4 and 2.5 percent, respectively. Construction employment, however, rose 16.0 percent in April and reached its highest level since the end of the 2007 recession, at 62,649 workers (seasonally adjusted). As a result, the overall index was up strongly by 2.9 percent from a year ago. Series Date Latest Period Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year Construction (SA) Apr-17 62, % 16.0% Housing Permits (SA) Apr-17 1, % -2.5% Commercial Permits (SA) Apr % -17.4% Overall Index Change Apr % 2.9% 11

12 Southern Nevada Tourism Index The CBER Southern Nevada tourism index rose in April from a year ago, despite a slight monthly decline. The CBER Southern Nevada tourism index fell slightly by 0.3 percent in April compared to the previous month. This loss resulted from a monthly decline in hotel/motel occupancy and gaming revenue, down by 0.8 percentage point and 2.9 percent, respectively. Despite higher passenger activity in the McCarran airport, up 0.1 percent, the overall index fell from the previous month. On a yearly basis, however, the index grew 1.0 percent in April. All three components, McCarran passengers, gaming revenue, and hotel/motel occupancy rate, increased compared to April Specifically, McCarran passengers and gaming revenue grew 3.9 and 1.3 percent, respectively. The seasonally adjusted hotel/motel occupancy rate increased 1.1 percentage points and is currently at 89.2 percent (seasonally adjusted) Recession Tourism Index Series Date Latest Period Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year McCarran Passengers (SA) Apr-17 4,008, % 3.9% Gaming Revenue (SA) Apr ,598, % 1.3% LV Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate (SA) Apr % 1.1% Overall Index Change Apr % 1.0% 12

13 Sources Nevada Indexes: Nevada Department of Taxation Nevada Gaming Control Board Nevada Department of, Training and Rehabilitation U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Various Permitting Agencies Yahoo Finance Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Reno-Tahoe International Airport McCarran International Airport CBER, UNLV Southern Nevada Indexes: Nevada Department of Taxation Nevada Gaming Control Board Nevada Department of, Training and Rehabilitation U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Various Permitting Agencies Yahoo Finance Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System McCarran International Airport Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority CBER, UNLV The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily express those of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas or the Nevada System of Higher Education

CBER Economic Indexes for Nevada and Southern Nevada

CBER Economic Indexes for Nevada and Southern Nevada Published December 19, 2017 Stephen M. Miller, PhD, Director Nicolas Prada, M.A., Graduate Research Assistant Summary of CBER s Nevada Indexes Coincident