CURRENT ECONOMIC REVIEW April 21, Brian Bonnenfant

Transcription

1 CURRENT ECONOMIC REVIEW April 21, 2015 Brian Bonnenfant

2 Current Employment Reno-Sparks MSA 230, ,000 Dec-06: 228, , , , ,000-23,300 Dec-14 = 204, , , ,000 Dec-11: 191, ,300 Feb ,100 (+1.7%) 185, ,000 8 Years Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Source: Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation (CES data)

3 Employment Increases by Sector Between Feb 2014 & Feb Reno MSA (% of sector) Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 1, % Education and Health Services % Leisure & Hospitality % Manufacturing % State Government % Wholesale % Information % Other Services % Retail % Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation, CES data TOTAL 4,900 Construction -400 Professional & Business Services -600

4 35,000 30,000 Employment by Industry Washoe County 2014 represents averages through the 3rd quarter. Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation, QCEW data Health Care Retail Gaming Industry Educ. Services Accomm. & Food Serv. - No Gaming 25,000 Administrative and Waste Services Manufacturing 20,000 Transp. & Warehousing Construction Prof. & Tech. Services 15,000 Wholesale Government Finance & Insur. 10,000 Other Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Arts, Entertain., & Rec. - No Gaming 5,000 Management * Winners Admin/Waste Serv. +37% Accomm/Food Serv. No Gaming +37% Health Care +29% Prof./Technical Serv. +24% Educ. Services +18% Transp./Warehousing +15% Information Utilities Mining Agriculture Losers Gaming -35% Construction -29% Retail -21% Manufacturing -9%

5 Projected Employment Reno/Sparks MSA Year EDAWN Tesla Primary Tesla Secondary EDAWN Primary EDAWN Secondary Unassisted Existing Primary Job Attrition ,148 4,000 5,040 1,150-1,500 10, ,000 1,640 3,500 4,410 1,151-1,500 10, ,000 4,920 3,000 3,780 1,152-1,500 14, ,800 2,952 2,500 3,150 1,153-1,500 10, ,000 2,520 1,154-1,500 4,174 5 Year Estimates 6,500 10,660 15,000 18,900 5,760-7,500 49,320 Total Jobs

6 Projected Employment Reno/Sparks MSA 270, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , source: Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation, CES data, Reno-Sparks MSA source: EDAWN, Northern Nevada

7 New Commercial Construction per New Job Year New Retail/Service Square Feet New Office Square Feet Washoe County, Nevada New Industrial Square Feet Total Commercial Square Feet New Jobs New Commercial Sq Ft per New Job , ,722 1,564,960 2,563, , ,301 1,190,331 2,030,580 3, ,342 71,616 1,704,597 2,049,555 6, ,278 56, ,804 1,722,088 6, ,379 56,868 3,260,192 3,896,439 4, , ,904 2,564,945 3,723,982 5, , ,717 3,929,860 5,393,548 3,179 1, ,446, ,393 3,253,109 4,986,387 5, ,540, ,574 2,010,741 3,937,605 6, ,112, ,567 1,561,258 3,248, , , ,538 4,057,300 5,181,146 6, ,322, ,673 1,140,633 2,899,006 4, ,027, , ,179 2,426,967 1,749 1, ,327, ,212 1,270,136 2,813,686 2,163 1, ,430, ,069 1,626,094 3,991,966 2,693 1, ,673, ,914 1,640,585 6,140,473 2,105 2, , ,564 1,492,053 2,959,667 6, ,163, ,858 1,882,238 3,316,641 2,126 1, ,757, ,789 1,267,696 3,233,280-2,427 (1,332.21) ,825 39, ,512 1,037,186-7,708 (134.56) ,316 76,176 10, ,692-1,152 (353.90) , , , (1,154.73) ,758 2, , ,049 1, ,553 49, , ,061 2, ,909 10,020 2,655,825 2,909,754 5, Average: Average: Sources: Washoe County Assessor Data & Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation

8 Projected Demand of Commercial Square Feet Commercial Square Feet of Demand Per New Job 757 EDAWN Emp Projection Commercial Sq Ft Demand Retail/Service Sq Ft Demand Office Sq Ft Demand Industrial Sq Ft Demand ,538 7,977,266 3,056, ,851 4,177, ,201 7,722,157 2,958, ,095 4,044, ,352 10,864,464 4,162,651 1,011,709 5,690, ,055 7,611,635 2,916, ,803 3,986, ,174 3,159,718 1,210, ,236 1,654,856 Five Year Total 49,320 37,335,240 14,304,764 3,476,693 19,553,783 Vacant 9,973,387 2,340,000 1,183,387 6,450,000 Demand Net Vacant 27,361,853 11,964,764 2,293,306 13,103, Weighted Average Of New Construction by Use 38.3% 9.3% 52.4% Washoe County Assessor s Office, EDAWN, Dickson Commercial (retail & industrial vacancy), & Collier s International (office vacancy).

9 Year New Residential Construction per New Job New Single- Family Units Total New Residential Units Washoe County, Nevada New Jobs New Single-Family Homes per New Job New Residential Units per New Job ,680 2, ,514 2,214 3, ,804 1,998 6, ,074 2,331 6, ,810 3,699 4, ,107 2,346 5, ,350 3,271 3, ,006 4,543 5, ,973 3,731 6, ,422 5, ,848 4,030 6, ,862 5,836 4, ,237 5,548 1, ,533 4,492 2, ,120 5,100 2, ,942 6,006 2, ,791 4,952 6, ,047 2,547 2, ,136 2,308-2,427 (0.47) (0.95) ,708 (0.07) (0.09) ,152 (0.34) (0.36) (0.70) (0.94) , , ,110 1,376 5, Average: Average: Sources: Washoe County Assessor Data & Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation, LAU data

10 Demand New Housing Unit Demand Based on EDAWN Employment Projections & Historical Employment-Housing Unit Relationship Low Estimate High Estimate ,744 10, ,529 10, ,185 14, ,435 10, ,671 4,174 Five Year Total 31,565 49,320 Washoe County Assessor s Office & EDAWN Approved-Unbuilt Residential Units Supply Washoe County, Nevada CONDO MF SENIOR SF Total Approved 1,696 5, ,533 18,367 In Active Developments 360 1, ,692 8,660 In Paused Developments 628 1,491 2,119 Total Approved-Unbuilt 2,684 7, ,716 29,146 Pending Approval 109 2,131 16,088 18,328 Center for Regional Studies based on documented approvals of tentative maps as of 4Q Expired and inactive tentative maps are included in totals.

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12 Single-Family Sales Activity by Subregion # of New & Existing Dec-14 Single-Family Sales 4Q14 Median 4Q14 Median Active Subregion in 2014 % Ch. YOY Sales Price % Ch. YOY Price Per SF % Ch. YOY Listings % Ch. YOY Spanish Springs 1, % $ 280, % $ % % North Valleys 1, % $ 184, % $ % % New Southeast % $ 312, % $ % % Sparks (balance) % $ 189, % $ % % New Northwest % $ 289, % $ % % Old Southwest % $ 350, % $ % % North Urban % $ 189, % $ % % New Southwest % $ 600, % $ % % Old Southeast % $ 199, % $ % % Greater Reno Sparks 7, % $ 264, % $ % 1, % Fernley % $ 149, % % Dayton Valley Corridor % $ 164, % % Center for Regional Studies analysis of Washoe County Assessor & Northern Nevada Regional MLS data.

13 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Annual Change Q1/14-Q1/15: 17.4% Quarterly Change Q2/14: 6.3% Q3/14: 3.3% Q4/14: 4.8% Q1/15: 1.9% Single-Family Home Value "Bubble" $350,000 1% Quarterly Appreciation Rate Greater Reno-Sparks Median Price = 0.97% average appreciation rate per quarter (red trendline) Q1/15: $278,921 $250,000 Peak (3Q/05): $156,909 "Bubble" $200,000 $150,000 $193,091 Q1/15: $265,000 $100,000 Center for Regional Studies analysis of Northern Nevada Regional MLS data.

14 140 $400,000 New Single-Family Home Sales & Median Values - Washoe County 120 Number of New Home Sales $350,000 $321,500 Number of New Home Sales Median New Home Sales Price $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Median New Home Sales Price : 1,063 sales (89/month) 2009: 739 sales (62/month) 2010: 527 sales (44/month) 2011: 427 sales (36/month 2012: 546 sales (46/month) 2013: 714 sales (60/month) $50,000 $0 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb : 970 sales (81/month) Center for Regional Studies analysis of Washoe County Assessor s data.

15 5.0% 4.0% Percent Change in Population, School Enrollment, & Employment Washoe County 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% % -3.0% WCSD Enrollment State Demographer Pop Average Employment -4.0% -5.0%

16 Mobility in Past Year by Age Range of Resident Washoe County Moved from Different State % ch. Total Persons 13,837 16,972 15,980 16,525 22, % 1 to 4 years 936 1, , % 5 to 17 years 1,375 2,006 1,756 1,479 2, % 18 and 19 years , % 20 to 24 years 807 1,616 2,335 3,031 3, % 25 to 29 years 1,588 2,312 2,452 1,802 2, % 30 to 34 years 946 2, % 35 to 39 years 1, , , % 40 to 44 years 867 1, , % 45 to 49 years , % 50 to 54 years 1, , % 55 to 59 years 677 1, , % 60 to 64 years 1, , % 65 to 69 years , % 70 to 74 years % 75 years and over , % 65 years and over 1,626 1,172 1,796 1,144 3, % US Census Bureau

17 $60,000 $57,392 Washoe County Median Household Income Avg Wage $55,000 $52,297 $54,343 $52,833 $53,588 $50,000 $50,556 $50,733 $49,026 $45,000 $40,000 $39,520 $41,340 $42,172 $42,224 $42,380 $43,004 $43,576 $44, Wage Growth = 4.4% CPI Growth = 6.3% $43,971 Thru Third Quarter $35, * US Census Bureau (income) & Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation (wages)

18 Per Capita Per Capita Per Capita Earned Income Unearned Personal (by Place of US US US Income Income Area Name Res.) RANK RANK RANK Douglas, NV $ 29, $ 22, $ 59, Washoe, NV $ 25,327 1,036 $ 13, $ 45, Carson City $ 24,475 1,145 $ 11, $ 43, Esmeralda, NV $ 26, $ 10, $ 45, Churchill, NV $ 31, $ 8, $ 47, Humboldt, NV $ 34, $ 7,718 1,102 $ 47, Storey, NV $ 20,277 1,840 $ 7,713 1,104 $ 35,723 1,795 Clark, NV $ 23,883 1,243 $ 7,664 1,129 $ 37,457 1,515 Mineral, NV $ 17,297 2,397 $ 7,366 1,225 $ 35,073 1,888 Nye, NV $ 16,186 2,580 $ 7,363 1,226 $ 34,392 2,013 Lincoln, NV $ 13,270 2,960 $ 6,903 1,402 $ 27,955 2,904 White Pine, NV $ 26, $ 6,807 1,432 $ 40,291 1,140 Eureka, NV $ 28, $ 6,322 1,662 $ 39,068 1,288 Lyon, NV $ 17,328 2,392 $ 6,199 1,719 $ 30,993 2,550 Elko, NV $ 32, $ 5,915 1,871 $ 42, Lander, NV $ 38, $ 5,839 1,908 $ 49, Pershing, NV $ 17,758 2,306 $ 5,318 2,177 $ 28,386 2,858 Total Number of Counties: 3,113 Bureau of Economic Analysis Per Capita Income

19 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% Percentage Change in Quarterly Taxable Sales 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% NEVADA WASHOE CLARK BALANCE -25.0% 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Department of Taxation Storey County FYTD = +242% ($154M) Dec-14 = +531% ($52M)

20 6,000,000 Visitors - Washoe County 5,500,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000, January Visitation +15% February +5% Annual Change in Cash-Occupied Rooms Downtown Reno Suburban Reno Sparks Non-Gaming FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015* 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% Average Cash Rate Downtown Reno Suburban Reno Sparks Non-Gaming $ $ $ $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 *FY2015 Thru February. RSCVA FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015* $50.00

21 Percent Change in Taxable Gaming Revenue 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% NEVADA CLARK WASHOE 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Nevada Gaming Control Board January: +10.9% February: +3.1%