IMPACTS OF TESLA GIGAFACTORY IN STOREY COUNTY, NV

Transcription

1 IMPACTS OF TESLA GIGAFACTORY IN STOREY COUNTY, NV Brian Bonnenfant Center for Regional Studies University of Nevada, Reno Eugenia Larmore Ekay Economic Consultants October 9, 2014

2

3 Total Annual Avg Direct Jobs 8,950 2,983 Indirect Jobs 4,665 1,555 Total 13,614 4,538 Economic Impact $ 1,600,000,000 $ 531,400,000 Source: Governor's Office of Economic Development Washoe 10,552 Lyon 474 Carson City 873 Douglas 943 Storey 159 Total 13,001 Tesla as a % of Currrent Total 34.9% Peak Construction Employment (2006, above counties) 29,176 Source: Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation Construction ( ) Current Construction Employment (2013) Equipment Installation ( ) Total Annual Avg Direct Jobs 12, Indirect Jobs 6, Total 18,277 1,306 Economic Impact $ 2,100,000,000 $ 152,900,000 Total Equipment Expenditure $ 9,000,000,000 $ 642,857,143 Source: Governor's Office of Economic Development Washoe $5,824,726,136 Lyon $305,525,152 Carson City $779,297,546 Douglas $592,823,014 Storey $77,728,883 Total $7,580,100,731 Source: Department of Taxation Total Taxable Sales (FY13)

4 Direct Jobs 6,500 Total Jobs 22,700 Employment Multiplier Source: Governor's Office of Economic Development Tesla Operating Impacts (GOED) Job Direct Nevada Input-Output Model (IMPLAN) Alkalies and chlorine manufacturing Multiplier Jobs Other basic organic chemical manufacturing Plastics material and resin manufacturing Ground or treated mineral and earth manufacturing Other engine equipment manufacturing Aluminum product manufacturing from purchased aluminum Carbon and graphite product manufacturing N/A 617 Storage battery manufacturing N/A 4,650 (Highlighted industries represent the direct Tesla industries used in GOED's economic impact analysis. National averages were used to create the nonexistent industries in Nevada.) Job Arizona Input-Output Model (IMPLAN) Other basic organic chemical manufacturing Multiplier Aluminum product manufacturing from purchased aluminum Storage battery manufacturing Carbon and graphite product manufacturing (The direct Tesla industries currently exist in Arizona. The Center for Regional Studies used the AZ IMPLAN model to determine secondary industry impacts. The supporting industries were then analyzed for current activity in the region on the next slide.)

5 Job Impacts Sorted by Industry Indirect 2013 Location Quotients Arizona IMPLAN Model Jobs Washoe Lyon Carson City Storage battery manufacturing 4,651.7 na na na Wholesale trade businesses Food services and drinking places Aluminum product manufacturing from purchased aluminum na na na All other basic inorganic chemical manufacturing na na na Carbon and graphite product manufacturing na na na Real estate establishments Services to buildings and dwellings Employment services na 0.74 Management of companies and enterprises Transport by truck Offices of physicians, dentists, and other health practitioners Securities, commodity contracts, investments, and related activities na 0.04 na Retail Stores - General merchandise na 1.54 Private hospitals na 1.65 Maintenance and repair construction of nonresidential structures Retail Stores - Food and beverage Architectural, engineering, and related services Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services Retail Stores - Motor vehicle and parts Management, scientific, and technical consulting services Automotive repair and maintenance, except car washes Monetary authorities and depository credit intermediation activities Retail Nonstores - Direct and electronic sales na 0.94 Direct Jobs = 6,500 Indirect Jobs = 11,690 Total Jobs = 18,190 Employment Multiplier = 2.80 Industries directly operated by Tesla Higher share of emp versus nation Lower share of emp versus nation

6 Manufacturing Employment by Industry Northwest Nevada Year Period Area Ind Code Industry Avg Employment % of NV st Qtr Nevada Manufacturing 41, st Qtr NW Nevada Manufacturing 19, % Industries Associated with Electric Vehicle Battery Manufacturing th Qtr Nevada 325 Chemical Manufacturing 1, st Qtr Nevada 326 Plastics & Rubber Products Manufacturing 2, st Qtr Nevada 327 Nonmetallic Mineral Product Mfg 2, st Qtr Nevada 331 Primary Metal Manufacturing 1, st Qtr Nevada 332 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 5, st Qtr Nevada 333 Machinery Manufacturing 1, st Qtr Nevada 334 Computer and Electronic Product Mfg 2, st Qtr Nevada 335 Electrical Equipment and Appliances st Qtr Nevada 336 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 1, st Qtr Nevada 339 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 7,838 27, st Qtr NW Nevada Chemical Manufacturing % st Qtr NW Nevada Plastics & Rubber Products Manufacturing 1, % st Qtr NW Nevada Nonmetallic Mineral Product Mfg % st Qtr NW Nevada Primary Metal Manufacturing % st Qtr NW Nevada Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 3, % st Qtr NW Nevada Machinery Manufacturing 1, % st Qtr NW Nevada Computer and Electronic Product Mfg 2, % st Qtr NW Nevada Electrical Equipment and Appliances % st Qtr NW Nevada Transportation Equipment Manufacturing % st Qtr NW Nevada Miscellaneous Manufacturing 2, % 12, % 1. Northwest Nevada counties include Carson City, Churchill, Douglas, Lyon, Storey, & Washoe Disclosure limitations for detailed industries occur where limited establishments exists. Source: Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation

7 Year of New Residential Construction per 100 New Jobs Single Family Condo or Washoe County, Nevada Condo or Townhouse valued as apartment Two or More Attached Total Residential Construction Residence Townhouse use Units Units , , , ,017 4, , ,121 4, , , , , , , , , , , , ,055 1, Year Employment Emp Ch. New Single-Family Homes per 100 New Jobs New Residential Units per 100 New Jobs , ,521 4, ,270 1, ,433 2, ,126 2, ,231 2, ,519 6, ,645 2, ,218-2,427 (47) (52) ,510-7,708 (7) (8) ,358-1,152 (34) (35) , (70) (71) ,793 1, ,292 2, Avg (positive #s only): Sources: Washoe County Assessor Data & Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation

8 Approved-Unbuilt Residential Units Washoe County, Nevada CONDO MF SENIOR SF Total Approved 2,065 4, ,065 17,087 Under Construction 362 1, ,652 10,573 Stopped Construction 629 1,560 2,189 Total Approved-Unbuilt 3,056 5, ,277 29,849 Source: Center for Regional Studies based on documented approvals of tentative maps. Expired and inactive tentative maps are included in totals.

9 Tesla Incentives Package A 100 percent sales tax abatement for 20 years: Storey County to receive majority of local sales tax revenue, if properly administered (use vs. sales tax) Other counties: Loss of Storey County s guaranteed status-fy SCCRT payment of $1.48 million, County generated $1.36 million Direct purchases of construction materials and equipment from other counties or purchases taxed under use tax State of Nevada: 2% sales tax rate (some argument this rate is not included in the abatement )

10 Tesla Incentives Package A 100 percent real and personal property tax abatement for 10 years: Storey County to receive all local property tax revenue No revenue for other counties State of Nevada: $0.17 tax rate per $100 of assessed value A 100 percent modified business tax (payroll tax) abatement for 10 years: State of Nevada General Fund

11 Tesla Incentives Package Transferable tax credits worth approximately $195 million State of Nevada Discounted electricity rates for eight years: $8 million Taxpayers

12 Using Existing Data Tesla promised at least 50% of employees will be local 3,250 employees will be new to the area GOED estimates 16,200 indirect jobs No restrictions Maximum impact scenario-all jobs will be new to the area

13 Using Existing Data 59% of Storey County employees live in Washoe County, 15% in Lyon County, 7% in Storey County, 4% in Carson City, and 4.6% outside of the State Unlikely new residents will live in Storey County On average, there are approximately 2.04 residents per 1.0 employee in the State There are 2.69 people per household in the State

14 Using Existing Data This results in approximately 6,322 new residents and 2,350 new households in the State from direct impacts Up to an additional 31,542 new residents and 11,726 households can be added if all indirect employees are new to the area Direct Impact Estimated New Residents Estimated New Households Indirect Impact Estimated New Residents Estimated New Households County Washoe 4,214 1,566 21,023 7,815 Lyon 1, ,184 1,927 Storey Carson City , Mineral , Douglas Other Nevada , Total 6,322 2,350 31,542 11,726

15 What is Needed Infrastructure/Capital Improvements-roads, water, sewer, expanded administrative offices, parks, schools, etc. Residential services-police, fire, judicial, parks, education, recreation, road maintenance Commercial services-business licenses, permitting, police, fire, judicial, road maintenance

16 Can We Do It? We ve done it before: High in-migration Population increased by 19,705 people between 2000 and 2001, over 63,000 new residents in five year period ( ) Enough units planned to house majority of new residents

17 Can We Do It? What s different: Older Demographics-different impacts: Fewer school impacts % of home buyers had adult or no children, % Median buyer age 49.5 in 2012, 40 in 2013, and 50 in 2014 Shift in demand from Fire/EMS to parks and recreation services

18 Can We Do It? What s different: Service level reductions: WC from 3,199 FTEs in FY to 2,546 in FY (-20%) From 7.82 to 5.90 FTE per 1,000 residents Reno from 1,883 FTEs in FY to 1,205 in FY (-35%) From 8.89 to 5.20 FTE per 1,000 residents Sparks from 860 FTEs in FY to 574 in FY (-32%) From 9.34 to 6.27 FTE per 1,000 residents

19 Who Pays Impacts of Tesla abatement on Lyon and Washoe Counties not expected to be significant Impacts of residents in these counties will be significant Adjusting FY budgeted General Fund revenues and expenditures to include only residential sources results in the following: Entity City of Reno City of Sparks Washoe County Per Capita Revenues $ 511 $ 470 $ 562 Per Capita Expenditures Difference $ (102) $ (83) $ (107) Adjustments include residential portion of property tax revenue, exclusion of all business licenses and permits, and community development related revenues and costs.

20 Who Pays School impacts: Average of 0.14 students per capita in Washoe County Estimated 596 new students in Washoe County from direct employees and up to 2,974 from indirect (1% and 5% of current enrollment) $5,585 FY Basic Support per student

21 Who Pays School impacts: 51% of operating expenditures provided through local sources (property tax $0.25, sales tax 2.6% and charter school revenue) 49% of operating expenditures provided through State General Fund, funded in part by Modified Business Tax, sales tax, and property tax revenue Tesla to contribute $37.5 million over 5 years to Education Gift Fund (starting 2018)

22 Tesla Difference Resident revenues will be higher than average Average Washoe County wage (1Q 2014) was $21.40 compared to $27.35 estimated by GOED for direct employees and $25.16 for indirect employees Higher sales and property tax revenues (51% of Reno GF revenue, 62% for Sparks and 72% for Washoe County) Expenditures are unlikely to increase Assessed values region-wide will increase with increased demand for housing

23 Tesla Difference Increased service levels for existing residents (Southeast connector, RTC, etc.) Revenues from indirect and non-related businesses Property tax, sales tax, business licenses and permits, and construction-related fees High wages likely to create competition for employees, resulting in higher region-wide wages for high demand industries Higher sales and property tax revenues

24 Discussion