Economic Outlook and Housing Market Forecast
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1 Economic Outlook and Housing Market Forecast NVAR Housing Finance Summit Terry L, Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University May
2 Annual Job Change - Washington MSA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 000 s Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3,300 3,250 3,200 3,150 3,100 3,050 3,000 2,950 2,900 2,850 Apr 16- Apr K Apr-17 Total: 3,268 K
3 (000s) Federal Government Washington MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (000s) Apr 16- Apr 17 +1,000 MOTYC Total Jobs Apr-17 Total: 367K
4 (000s) 25 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Apr 16- Apr K MOTYC Total Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Apr-17 Total: 750.3K 620
5 (Ranked by Size in 2016) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing -3.4 Job Change by Sector Apr 2016 Apr 2017 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 38, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6 Annual Job Change Northern VA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 000 s Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1,480 1,460 1,440 1,420 1,400 1,380 1,360 1,340 1,320 1,300 1,280 Apr 16- Apr K Apr-17 Total: 1,458 K
7 (Ranked by Size in 2016) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector Apr 2016 Apr 2017 Northern Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (000s) Total 20,
8 Population Change Elements of Population Change Washington MSA 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40, % 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% +1.0% +0.9% 22,979 5,525 3,827 37,714 38,895 36,749 40,119 42,240 40,581 49,005 49,178 47,773 48,669 46,424 43,886-26,362-29,417-31,010 Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2016
9 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (December 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change = 37,300
10
11 Where are we? We are growing: Some diversification Recent job growth across all wage levels Growth will continue in 2017, but at a moderating pace Uncertainty reigns! Advantages Government Center International Institutions Connectivity to the World High Quality-of-Life Diverse Population Higher Education Educated Work Force Challenges Drain the swamp/sequester Further market shifts Cost of living/business Mobility Regional cooperation Globally competitive? Understanding changing nature of jobs
12 Median House Sales Price (000s) per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Fairfax County) Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Fairfax County Housing Market Outlook 2,000 1,500 Housing Sales (units) $600,000 Median Sales Price 1, $400,000 $200,000 $- 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Housing Inventory (month end) Md Price Sales Inventory Dec % 3.1% 6.0% May % 2.9% 2.4%
14 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Arlington County Housing Market Outlook Housing Sales (units) $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 Median Housing Prices - $200,000 $- 1,000 Housing Inventory (month end) Md Price Sales Inventory 500 Dec % 9.1% 9.9% - May % 6.5% 8.9%
15 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Alexandria Housing Market Outlook Housing Unit Sales $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $- Median Housing Price Housing Inventory (month end) Md Price Sales Inventory Dec % -5.6% 24.2% May % 3.6% 20.7%
16 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
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