The US and Northern Virginia Economy Trends and Outlook
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1 NVBCC Annual Meeting The US and Northern Virginia Economy Trends and Outlook Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University November 8, 1 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough 198-Q 1991-Q1 1-Q 9-Q Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
2 ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg N-Mfg Source: Institute for Supply Management (s) Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year Oct = M GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3 U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Oct 11 Oct 1 Ranked by Size in 11 Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Wlse Trade Construction Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total = 1, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % U.S. Unemployment Rate Oct= 7.9 GI FCST Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 Consumer Confidence Expectations Current Situation 1 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (s) 7 Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5 % U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 7 1 Forecast > > > > > Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight The Washington Area and Northern Virginia Economy GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6 (s) 1 Annual Job Change MOTYC Washington MSA (s) 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC District of Columbia GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 (s) 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC Suburban yland (s) 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC Northern Virginia GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 (s) 1 1 Largest Job kets Job Change: Washington + 1, Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 11 1 Washington MSA (s) Total = 1, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 (s) Annual Data Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Nov Nov Nov Nov Tot 11 = 88,7 (s) Annual Data Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Nov Nov Nov Nov Tot 11 = 8, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia Jun Dec Annual Month over Year Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector 11 1 Northern Virginia (s) Total 8, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11 Unemployment Rate DC 7.8 U.S.. SMD. MSA. - NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) Housing ket Trends GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
12 Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 1, MSA = -.% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1 Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through tember Month Moving Average Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
13 Total Active Listings Per Sale tember Each Year LDN PG PW DC ARL MONT FFX Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) 1 1 Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $ 9K 1 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
14 Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
15 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban yland All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
16 1 1 Washington MSA Building Permits 1, -Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Economic Outlook (GRP) 1 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
17 Employment Change by Sub-state Region (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change =, Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 9-1 based on 1 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised /1/1 NOTE: 11 Total is the sum of subregions and does not agree with the 1, 1 published MSA total. % GDP/GRP - 1 Washington U.S Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 17
18 GMU Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 18
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