Washington Area & Northern Virginia Economic Performance and Outlook
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1 Washington Area & Northern Virginia Economic Performance and Outlook Presentation to Northern Virginia Association of Realtors Economic Summit Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University November 1, 16
2 Annual Job Change Washington MSA, Annual Data (s) 5 8 Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3 (s) Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Data Annual Month over Year Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 8 5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6 Total: 369.8
4 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, TOTAL = $1,35.9 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
5 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Total: Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 8 5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Washington MSA (s) Total = 76, (.) (1.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util Total 81 9 Total Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s)
8 15 Largest Job kets Job Change: % 3.5% 3.%.5%.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Washington +.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
9 1, 8, 6, 4,495 WDC Metro Area Population Components of Change 36,871 43,7 47,495 4,, 47,989 47,15 46,96 Net Domestic Migration Net International Migration Natural Increase - (,) (4,) (4,741) (7,97) Source: Census Bureau
10 Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, (s) Annual Data 5 8 Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Northern Virginia (s) Total 7, (1.) (5.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 5. U.S. 3.7 SMD 3.9 MSA 3.4 NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
13 Housing ket Trends
14 16, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through 16 14, 1, 1, 1-Month Moving Average 8, 6, 4,, Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 (s) (s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $381.4K 16 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
16 Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types 3 1 % 5 Annual % Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
17 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types Annual Change % Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
18 Dec Dec Dec Dec % Annual Change Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Detached 4 Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % : DC = +.7; SM = -5.7; NV = +.6
19 Dec Dec Dec Dec % Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Attached Annual Change % Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % : DC = -9.; SM = -3.8; NV = +.
20 Dec Dec Dec Dec % Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Condos Annual Change - Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % : DC =.8; SM = +9.6; NV = +1.6
21 4,5 4, 3,5 3,,5, 1,5 1, 5 Washington MSA Building Permits 3 16, 3-Month Moving Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 Economic Outlook
23 Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 1.% 5.%.% -5.%.% 1-Month Moving Average 5.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
24 % % Economic Outlook (GRP), 7- Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 16
25 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 16) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change = 36,
26 Where are we? We are growing: Some diversification Some catch-up Recent job growth across all wage levels Advantages Government Center International Institutions Connectivity to the World Concentration of Leaders High Quality-of-Life Diverse Population Higher Educational Services Educated Work Force High Labor Force Participation Advanced Occupational Specializations Challenges Sequester? Further market shifts needed Cost of living/housing Cost of doing business Mobility Access to capital Lack of regional branding, cooperation Globally competitive? Understanding changing nature of jobs
27 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
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