MICHIANA BUSINESS. The Bureau of Business and Economic Research Presents: Page 1

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1 The Bureau of Business and Economic Research Presents: MICHIANA BUSINESS 1 st Quarter 2017 Judd Leighton School of Business & Economics Indiana University South Bend Page 1 INSIDE THIS ISSUE Introduction 1 st Quarter 2017 Summary Summary of Regional Economic Conditions in the 1 st Quarter of 2017 Regional Economic Indicators 3d121 st Quarter 2017 Summary This issue presents an analysis of economic conditions in the South Bend Mishawaka and Elkhart Goshen metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) as of March 2017, the latest month during the quarter for which all data are available for the indicators shown in the tables and graphs on pages 3-7. These indicators are for the most part, seasonally adjusted index numbers that permit a comparison of conditions in the two metropolitan areas. The data are collected and processed by the Judd Leighton School of Business and Economics Bureau of Business and Economic Research. 1. SUMMARY OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2017 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data 1 during the first quarter of 2017 showed that the labor force declined slightly in the South Bend Mishawaka MSA by losing 839 people, whereas expanded by 817 workers in the Elkhart Goshen MSA. Meanwhile, payroll employment decreased by 976 workers in the South Bend-Mishawka MSA yet gained 854 workers in the Elkhart Goshen MSA. The number of unemployed went up by 137 people in the South Bend Mishawaka area while declined by 37 people in the Elkhart Goshen metropolitan area. Consequently, under the above labor market dynamics the jobless rate in the two areas showed different changes with South Bend-Mishawaka s unemployment rate tipping up 0.17 percentage point to a quarterly average of 4.40 percent and Elkhart-Goshen s unemployment rate edging down 0.03 percentage point to a quarterly average of 3.17 percent by the end of the first quarter of In line with the payroll employment decline, total nonfarm employment in the South Bend Mishawaka MSA lost 3967 jobs in the first quarter of 2017, representing a 2.82 percent job decline from the fourth quarter of Disappointedly, the employment data by industry2 showed a prevalent job loss in this region. The sectors that experienced job decreases included: percent in natural resources, mining and construction (-467 jobs); percent in manufacturing (-367 jobs); percent in trade, transportation and utilities (-600 jobs); percent in information (-67 jobs); percent in professional and business

2 services (-333 jobs); percent in private educational and health services (-1,600 jobs); percent in leisure and hospitality (-433 jobs); percent in other services (-33 jobs); and 0.42 percent in government (-67 jobs). Only financial activities saw no job change from the fourth quarter of Despite the gain in payroll employment in the first quarter of 2017, total nonfarm employment in the Elkhart Goshen MSA declined slightly by losing 567 workers, down 0.43 percent from the last quarter of The sectoral employment data revealed job losses in the following industries: percent in natural resources, mining and construction (-433 jobs); percent in trade, transportation and utilities (-367 jobs); percent in financial activities (-67 jobs); percent in professional and business services (-200 jobs); percent in leisure and hospitality (-433 jobs); and percent in government (-67 jobs). Job growth was observed in manufacturing adding 933 jobs (+1.48 percent) and in private educational and health services adding 67 jobs (+0.53 percent). No employment changed in information and other services in the first quarter of Page 2 2. REGIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS As the table below displays, the monthly average total non-farm employment index in South Bend Mishawaka edged up 0.13 point to in the first quarter of 2017 from the last quarter. Further decomposition shows that the manufacturing employment index of the area went up 3.37 points yet the non-manufacturing employment index lost 0.52 point in this quarter. The index of industrial electricity usage in South Bend-Mishawaka gained 2.28 points in the first quarter of 2017, indicating more active production activities. The housing sector of the South Bend- Mishawaka MSA seemed to be active in the first quarter of The average index of new building permits of singlefamily housing went up points to in the first quarter of The total value of these permits increased significantly by points to a quarterly average of 154. Nevertheless, the average seasonally adjusted index of the average value of new permits tipped down 1.16 points to in the first quarter of In addition, data from Indiana Association of Realtors showed that the number of existing singlefamily homes sold rose year-over-year in March by 14.1 percent and the median sales price increased by 22.3 percent from March 2016 to March On the other hand, the supply of homes in South Bend- Mishawaka continued to decline. The region s monthly supply of inventories decreased 19.0 percent in March 2017 than one year ago coupled with the fall of year-over-year inventory of homes for sale by 15.9 percent in March The average seasonally adjusted index of monthly nonfarm employment ended up 7.83 points higher in the Elkhart Goshen metro area during the first quarter of Especially, the monthly average manufacturing employment index gained points yet the monthly average non-manufacturing employment index lost 0.17 point in the same period. Meanwhile, the average index of electricity usage went down by 3.49 points to a quarterly average of Overall, the labor market conditions did not show signs of improvement in the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA in the first quarter of The continuous contraction in the labor force and payroll employment and the increase in unemployment resulted in the higher unemployment rate implying a stagnant local labor market. Furthermore, the total nonfarm sectors witnessed modest job loss in the first quarter of Job losses were observed in almost all sectors in South Bend-Mishawaka except financial activities staying intact from the last quarter. Albeit the dismal labor market conditions, the housing sector continued to grow in the first quarter

3 of 2017 with more housing permits issued, more closed sales and higher median sales prices. The Elkhart-Goshen MSA performed better in the first quarter of 2017 exhibiting tepid growth in the labor force and employment as well as decrease in unemployment. As a result, the unemployment rate declined further in this area ending at 2.8 percent in March 2017, the lowest unemployment rate since the Great Recession. Job growth was observed in manufacturing which has been growing for two consecutive quarters and in private educational and health services whose growth has lasted for three consecutive quarters. Other sectors experienced either job losses or no changes in the first quarter of South Bend - Mishawaka Total Non-farm Manufacturing Non-manufacturing 1st Quarter 2016 January February March Monthly Average Unemployment Rate Electricity Usage Single Family Housing Number of New Permits Total Value of New Permits Average Value of a New Permits Total Non-farm Manufacturing Non-manufacturing Elkhart -Goshen Unemployment Rate Electricity Usage Note: All figures except unemployment rates are seasonally adjusted indexes with the base year of 2002 = using BLS seasonal adjustment program. Page 3

4 in South Bend Metropolitan Area Total Non-Farm Mfg Non-Mfg in Elkhart-Goshen Metropolitan Area Total Non-Farm Mfg Non-Mfg Page 4

5 Percentage Unemployment Rate South Bend Elkhart-Goshen Industrial Electricity Usage South Bend Elkhart-Goshen Page 5

6 400 Single-Family Housing in St. Joseph County Number of New Permits Total Value of New Permits Average Value of New Permits Page 6

7 REFERENCES (1): Labor Force Estimates and Unemployment Rates (3) Indiana Housing Market Update (2) by industries: Monthly Current Statistics (CES) Michiana Bureau of Business and Economic Research BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH STAFF: Dr. Hong Zhuang, Director Michiana Business is published quarterly by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at Indiana University South Bend under the generous sponsorship of 1st Source Bank Subscriptions are available at no charge. For information, contact the BBER at Mishawaka Ave. P.O. Box 1700 South Bend, Indiana Page 7

MICHIANA BUSINESS. The Bureau of Business and Economic Research Presents: Page 1

MICHIANA BUSINESS. The Bureau of Business and Economic Research Presents: Page 1 The Bureau of Business and Economic Research Presents: MICHIANA BUSINESS 1 st Quarter 2016 Judd Leighton School of Business & Economics Indiana University South Bend Page 1 INSIDE THIS ISSUE Introduction