A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND. A Closer Look at Gross Domestic Product by MSA

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1 December Summary Economic reports on s economy were slightly positive in recent months. Despite a slight decline in payroll employment, the unemployment rate edged lower and housing market reports were generally upbeat. Labor Markets: Payroll employment in declined.1 percent in October as employers in the state cut,8 jobs, on net. The largest job loss was reported in the trade, transportation, and utilities industry, which lost, jobs (.3 percent). Professional and business services followed with a loss of 1,6 jobs, while the government sector, leisure and hospitality, and financial activities firms also cut jobs in the month. On the positive side, job gains were reported in other services (9 jobs), education and health services (7 jobs), and construction (4 jobs). Additionally, firms in mining and logging and information added 1 jobs, each. Compared to a year earlier, total employment in rose.9 percent. Educational and health services continued to report the largest absolute gain (14,7 jobs) and the fastest growth rate (.7 percent) since last October. The next largest job gain came from professional and business services, which added 1, jobs. Household Conditions: The unemployment rate in edged down.1 percentage point to 3.6 percent in October. Unemployment rates were unchanged or slightly higher in October in every MSA except Charlottesville and Winchester, where rates edged lower to 3.1 percent and 3. percent, respectively. In the third quarter of 17, the share of mortgages with payments 9 or more days past due rose.1 percentage point to 1.1 percent. The delinquency rate for fixed rate conventional loans also rose in the third quarter to.8 percent while the delinquency rate for adjustable rate loans was unchanged at. percent. In the second quarter of 17, real personal income in rose.6 percent and increased 1. percent since the second quarter of 16. Housing Markets: issued,9 new residential permits in October, up 9. percent from the prior month and up 7.6 percent from October 16. At the metro level, however, only the Charlottesville MSA saw more permits added in the month than in September. Housing starts in totaled 34, in October, up 1.4 percent from the prior month and up 49. percent on a year-over-year basis. According to CoreLogic Information Solutions, home values depreciated.3 percent in September but appreciated 3. percent since September 16. Home prices declined in every MSA except Harrisonburg and Lynchburg in the month but increased in every MSA except Danville and Roanoke on a yearover-year basis. A Closer Look at Gross Domestic Product by MSA Richmond Roanoke Lynchburg Charlottesville Beach Winchester Blacksbrg Staunton Harrisonburg Real GDP Per Capita in 16 by MSA (9$) Value Rank $1, Blacksburg $33,334 8 Charlottesville $48,418 3 Harrisonburg $,787 Lynchburg $31,713 9 Richmond $4,6 1 Roanoke $4,77 Staunton $3,7 7 Beach $47,11 4 Winchester $4, Real GDP Growth in 16 (YoY%)

2 Labor Market Conditions Payroll Employment (SA) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change in October 17 - Total October 147, Fifth District - Total October 14, Total October 3, Logging and Mining October Construction October Manufacturing October Trade, Transportation, and Utilities October Information October Financial Activities October Professional and Business Services October Education and Health Services October Leisure and Hospitality October Payroll Employment Performance Other Services October Total Employment Performance Government October Year-over-Year Percent Change in October 17 Metro Payroll Employment (NSA) Period Level (s) YoY % Change Blacksburg MSA - Total October Charlottesville MSA - Total October Lynchburg MSA - Total October Northern - Total October 1, Richmond MSA - Total October Roanoke MSA - Total October Beach-Norfolk MSA - Total October Winchester MSA - Total October Total Logging and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality (SA) Fifth District (SA) (SA) Blacksburg MSA Charlottesville MSA Lynchburg MSA Northern Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Beach-Norfolk MSA Winchester MSA Other Services Government

3 Labor Market Conditions Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (SA) October 17 September 17 October 16 Through October Fifth District Blacksburg MSA Charlottesville MSA Lynchburg MSA Northern (NSA) Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Beach-Norfolk MSA Winchester MSA Civilian Labor Force (SA) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change October 16, Fifth District October 16, Labor Force October 4, Year-over-Year Percent Change through October 17 3 Blacksburg MSA October Charlottesville MSA October Lynchburg MSA October Northern (NSA) October 1, Richmond MSA October Roanoke MSA October Beach-Norfolk MSA October Winchester MSA October Initial Unemployment Claims (NSA) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change October 1,4, Fifth District October 6, October 11,

4 Household Conditions Real Personal Income Real Personal Income (SA) Period Level ($mil) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q:17 Q:17 14,6, Fifth District Q:17 1,41, Q:17 48, Median Family Income Period Level (s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Beach-Norfolk MSA Non-Business Bankruptcies Period Level QoQ % Change YoY % Change Q3:17 189, Fifth District Q3:17 1, Q3:17, Mortgage Delinquencies Mortgage Delinquencies (% 9+ Days Delinquent) Q3:17 Q:17 Q3:16 Percent 9+ Days Delinquent through Q3:17 All Mortgages Conventional - Fixed Rate Conventional - Adjustable Rate All Mortgages Conventional - Fixed Rate Conventional - Adjustable Rate

5 Real Estate Conditions New Housing Units Permits: New Private Housing Units (NSA) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through October 17 October 114, Fifth District October 14, October, Charlottesville MSA October Harrisonburg MSA October Lynchburg MSA October Richmond MSA October Beach-Norfolk MSA October Winchester MSA October Total Private Housing Starts (SAAR) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change October 1, Housing Starts Fifth District October Thousands of Units (SAAR) October 17 October

6 Real Estate Conditions House Price Index (CoreLogic) House Price Index (=1) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through September 17 September Fifth District September September Blacksburg MSA September Charlottesville MSA September Danville MSA September Harrisonburg MSA September Lynchburg MSA September Richmond MSA September Roanoke MSA September Beach-Norfolk MSA September Winchester MSA September Median Home Sales Price - NAR (NSA) Period Level ($s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Beach-Norfolk MSA Median Home Sales Price (NAR) Richmond MSA Q3: Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q3:17 1 Beach-Norfolk MSA Q3: Median Home Sales Price - NAHB Period Level ($s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Richmond MSA Q3: Beach-Norfolk MSA Q3:

7 Real Estate Conditions Richmond MSA Office Vacancy Rate Housing Opportunity Index (%) Q3:17 Q:17 Q3:16 Through Q3:17 Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Beach-Norfolk MSA Commercial Vacancy Rates (%) Q3:17 Q:17 Q3:16 Office Vacancies Norfolk Richmond Industrial Vacancies Northern Richmond Richmond MSA Industrial Vacancy Rate Through Q:17 8 7