TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN CALIFORNIA

Transcription

1 TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN CALIFORNIA April 2009 Community Development Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2 Outline of Presentation National Trends Rising foreclosures House price declines Rising unemployment California Trends in foreclosure Housing market softening Rising unemployment Scale of loan modifications still falls short of need

3 National Trends

4 National Trends Foreclosures rose steadily in 2008, with wide repercussions for US economy After a slight decline in the national foreclosure rate in the 3 rd Quarter of 2008, rose again in 4 th Quarter Factors driving foreclosures nationally House price declines Rising unemployment, coupled with turmoil in financial and credit markets, may further influence foreclosure rate going forward

5 National Foreclosure Starts Rose Slightly in 4th Quarter of National Foreclosures Starts Percent of All Loans Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 4th Q 2008

6 Nationally, House Prices Continue to Decline 200 Case-Shiller National House Price Index (2000 = 100, quarterly) Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index, 4 th Q 2008

7 Unemployment Rate Recession Marks Significant Jump in Unemployment U.S. Unemployment Rate Recession Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 California Trends

9 Foreclosures in California are Above the National Average 3 Foreclosure Starts (Percent of All Loans) Alaska Washington Oregon Utah Idaho Hawaii US California Arizona Nevada 4Q Q Q Q 2008 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 4 th Q 2008

10 Percent of All Loans Unlike National Trends, California Saw a Decrease in Foreclosure Starts in 4 th Quarter California: Foreclosure Starts Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 4 th Q 2008

11 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 California Has Seen Significant and Steep Decline in House Prices 250 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) California 200 United States Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), 4 th Quarter 2008

12 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 Northern CA MSAs Experiencing Significant House Price Declines 240 FHFA House Price Index: Northern California (2000 = 100) Sacramento Oakland 180 San Francisco Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), 4 th Quarter 2008

13 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 Central Valley Cities Have Seen Greatest House Price Declines 280 FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO): Central California (2000 = 100, quarterly) Fresno Stockton Visalia Merced Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), 4 th Quarter 2008

14 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 Southern California MSAs also Experiencing Declining House Prices FHFA House Price Index: Southern California (2000 = 100, quarterly) Inland Empire San Diego Los Angeles Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), 4 th Quarter 2008

15 Foreclosure Starts by Type (Percent of All Loans) California s Foreclosures are Concentrated in Subprime ARM Market 12.0 Foreclosure Starts by Loan Type Prime Fixed Prime ARM Subprime Fixed Subprime ARM Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 4 th Q 2008

16 Approximately 1 in 4 California Households Received a High Cost Loan during the Housing Boom 35% Percent of All Borrowers with High Interest Conventional Loans, % 25% 22.7% 23.1% 23.6% 24.3% 25.9% 27.3% 28.0% 28.1% 29.2% 20% 20.4% 15% 10% 5% 0% Hawaii Alaska Oregon Washington Idaho California USA Arizona Utah Nevada Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data, 2005

17 High Cost Lending in California More Prevalent Among Minority Borrowers 70% California: High Cost Conventional Loans by Race, % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% All borrowers White borrowers Asian/Pacific Islander borrowers Native American borrowers Hispanic/Latino borrowers Black borrowers Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data, 2005

18 Employment Rate Unemployment Rate in California on the Rise, May Affect Future Foreclosures 12 Unemployment Rate California United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2009

19 Employment Trends by Industry in CA Total Employed (thousands) Percent Change California February mo.* 3-mo.* 12-mo. Total 14, Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2, Professional & Business Svcs. 2, Educational & Health Srvs. 1, Leisure & Hospitality 1, Manufacturing 1, Financial Activities Construction Other Services Information Government 2, Natural Resources & Mining Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2009; *Annualized.

20 Year-over-year percent change Significant Drop in Construction Employment Industry Employment Growth: Construction (Year-over-year percent change, monthly) California 5 0 United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2009

21 State & Local Data Maps

22 California Data Maps Lending Volumes September 2007 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, September 2007

23 California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures September 2007 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, September 2007

24 California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, April 2008

25 California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, November 2008

26 California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2008

27 Bay Area Data Maps Neighborhoods Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

28 Bay Area Data Maps Neighborhoods at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

29 Bay Area Data Maps Percent Concentration of Loans in of Foreclosure/REO Properties November February Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

30 Sacramento Valley Data Maps Neighborhoods with Concentrations of Foreclosures February 2009 Source: McDash Lender Processing Analytics & Services FRBSF Calculations, Inc. Applied Analytics, November February

31 Sacramento Valley Data Maps Concentration of REO Properties February 2009 Source: McDash Lender Processing Analytics & Services FRBSF Calculations, Inc. Applied Analytics, November February

32 Sacramento Valley Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2009 Source: McDash Lender Processing Analytics & Services FRBSF Calculations, Inc. Applied Analytics, November February

33 San Joaquin Valley Data Maps Neighborhoods with Concentrations of Foreclosures February 2009 Source: McDash Lender Processing Analytics & Services FRBSF Calculations, Inc. Applied Analytics, November February

34 San Joaquin Valley Data Maps Concentration of REO Properties February 2009 Source: McDash Lender Processing Analytics & Services FRBSF Calculations, Inc. Applied Analytics, November February

35 San Joaquin Valley Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2009 Source: McDash Lender Processing Analytics & Services FRBSF Calculations, Inc. Applied Analytics, November February

36 Southern Central California Data Maps Neighborhoods with Concentrations of Foreclosures February 2009 Source: McDash Lender Processing Analytics & Services FRBSF Calculations, Inc. Applied Analytics, November February

37 Southern Central California Data Maps Concentration of REO Properties February 2009 Source: McDash Lender Processing Analytics & Services FRBSF Calculations, Inc. Applied Analytics, November February

38 Southern Central California Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2009 Source: McDash Lender Processing Analytics & Services FRBSF Calculations, Inc. Applied Analytics, November February

39 Los Angeles Metro Region Data Maps Neighborhoods with Concentrations of Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

40 Los Angeles Metro Regional Data Maps Neighborhoods at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

41 Los Angeles Metro Region Data Maps Concentration of REO Properties February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

42 Inland Empire Regional Data Maps Neighborhoods with Concentrations of Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

43 Inland Empire Regional Data Maps Neighborhoods at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

44 Inland Empire Regional Data Maps Concentration of REO Properties February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

45 San Diego Regional Data Maps Neighborhoods with Concentrations of Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

46 San Diego Regional Data Maps Neighborhoods at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

47 San Diego Regional Data Maps Concentration of REO Properties November 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics, February 2009

48 Number (Adjusted for Hope Now Servicers) Loan workouts reach approximately 55,000 borrowers each quarter 35,000 California Loan Workouts 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Repayment Plans Loan Modifications Source: Hope Now Alliance Servicing Data, 4th Quarter 2008

49 Number (Adjusted for Hope Now Servicers) Yet, still more than 300,000 borrowers in California were seriously delinquent on their mortgage in 4 th Qtr ,000 Foreclosure & Delinquencies v. Loan Workouts in California 4th Quarter , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Serious Delinquencies Foreclosure Starts Foreclosure Sales Repayment Plans Loan Modifications Source: Hope Now Alliance Servicing Data, 4 th Quarter 2008

50 Conclusions

51 Conclusions Multi-pronged strategy is needed to stem foreclosure crisis Continued foreclosure prevention efforts are critical Foreclosure Prevention: Borrower Outreach, Refinance and Loan Modification (including principal reduction) Reaching these borrowers now may help to prevent unnecessary foreclosures Encourage borrowers to contact the Hope Hotline by calling (888) 995-HOPE or visiting

52 Conclusions Other strategies that can help to mitigate the negative impacts of foreclosure on families and neighborhoods Addressing vacant properties: ensuring that servicers maintain properties REO property disposition: return REO properties into productive use, affordable housing Ensuring continued access to credit and homeownership: credit repair, financial education, responsible lending

53 For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events