ARIZONA: HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS

Transcription

1 ARIZONA: HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS May 2011 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2 National Trends

3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010 Unemployment dips below 9% 12 U.S. Unemployment Rate 10 Unemployment Rate Recession

4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2010 Recovery, particularly in labor market, remains elusive Months Since Start of Recession to Employment Recovery 0% Percent Decline in Employment from Peak -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% %

5 Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index Case-Shiller Index shows continued softness in housing market Case-Shiller National House Price Index (2000 = 100, Quarterly)

6 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), includes refinancing and is not seasonally adjusted FHFA House Price Index Dips Again at End of FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) 160 FHFA House Price Index 2000=

7 Nationally, delinquencies drop in 2010, but still more than 4.5 million homes in distress 6,000,000 5,000,000 Number of Mortgages 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey Loans in Foreclosure

8 Despite improvement, high rates of delinquency remain concentrated in western and southern states Source: Lender Processing Service Inc. Applied Analytics, November 2010

9 Source: HAMP Service Performance Report Through January 2011 HAMP modifications down; borrowers still face challenges in obtaining permanent modifications 120, ,000 80,000 Modifications 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 February March April May June July August September October November December January 2011 New HAMP Trials Started New Permanent Modifications Started

10 Composition of distressed sales 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Arizona and Nevada California Florida Industrial Midwest Pacific NW South Northeast Rocky Mountain Damaged REO Move-In Ready REO Short Sale Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011

11 Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties 100% 90% 80% Who Is Buying Properties? February 2011 Percent of Property Type 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Investor First-Time Homebuyer Current Homeowner 0% Damaged REO Move-In Ready REO Short Sale Non-Distressed Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011

12 Financing for home purchases 100% Percent of Buyer-Side Transactions 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 28% 4% 19% 20% 30% 16% 18% 5% 14% 55% 11% 5% 2% 75% All Other Financing VA Fannie/Freddie FHA Cash Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011

13 Source: Data from Center for Budget and Policy Priorities Many states within 12 th District face severe budget shortfalls Total End-of-Year Shortfall as Percentage of 2010 Budget

14 Arizona Trends

15 Arizona s unemployment rate holding steady at 9.6 percent Unemployment Rate 6 4 United States 2 Arizona Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Recession

16 Unemployment rates in Arizona vary by county Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2011

17 Arizona seeing continued decline in house prices FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) Arizona FHFA House Price Index 2000= United States Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

18 Flagstaff prices appear to steady; no signs of stabilization in other major metropolitan areas 230 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000 = 100) 210 FHFA House Price Index 2000= Tucson Flagstaff Yuma 130 Phoenix-Mesa Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

19 Continued decline in number of delinquent mortgages and properties in foreclosure process 180, , ,000 Number of Mortgages 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

20 Arizona Data Maps

21 Arizona Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

22 Arizona Data Maps Areas At Risk Of Additional Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

23 Arizona Data Maps Change in House Prices Since 2007 February 2011 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index and FRBSF CD Calculations

24 Phoenix Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

25 Phoenix Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

26 Oregon Tucson Area Data Data Maps Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

27 Tucson Area Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

28 Conclusions

29 For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events