Presented by: Shayna Olesiuk, Regional Manager, FDIC Division of Insurance and Research (415)

Transcription

1 Arizona Economic Overview May 2, 2012 Presented by: Shayna Olesiuk, Regional Manager, FDIC Division of Insurance and Research (415) The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Some of the information used in the preparation of this presentation was obtained from publicly available sources that are considered reliable. However, the use of this information does not constitute an endorsement of its accuracy by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

2 Presentation Overview National / Regional Economic Summary Ai Arizona Focus Labor Markets How have local areas performed? What can we learn from current trends? Which h industries i have been hardest hit? Other Topics: Migration and Housing

3 Labor Markets Are Strengthening Nationwide, But the Pace of Job Growth Varies Considerably across the Country Region Share of Lost Jobs Regained (%) Dallas 61.9 New York 38.8 Kansas City 27.5 Atlantat 23.8 San Francisco 21.7 Chicago 17.4 Nation 30.9 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (quarterly data through fourth quarter 2011).

4 Most Western States Employment Remains Well Below Recent Peak Levels Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Map shows 4th quarter 2011 data. Peak-to-Current Employment Change (%) Nation = -4.3 SF Region = to to to to 0.0

5 Hiring Improved in Most Industry Sectors in the West, Except Government Education/Health Business Svcs Leisure/Hospit. Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Trans./Utilities Natural Res. Information Financial Svcs Other Services Construction Government Year-Over-Year Change in Employment (Thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (data are aggregated for the FDIC San Francisco Region states as of fourth quarter of each year).

6 Arizona Has Added Jobs for the Last Five Quarters Employment (Year-over-Year Growth, %) - Arizona Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (quarterly data through fourth quarter 2011).

7 Phoenix and Tucson Job Growth Outpace Other Metros Employment (Year-over-Year Growth, %) -Arizona 10 5 Phoenix and Tucson add jobs 0-5 Arizona Phoenix Tucscon Yuma -10 Flagstaff Prescott Other metros report job losses Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (quarterly data through fourth quarter 2011).

8 Unemployment Declines Throughout the West Unemployment Rate (Percent, Seasonally Adjusted) NV CA OR AZ WA ID AK HI MT UT WY US Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (data as of fourth quarter of each year).

9 Most Arizona Counties Report Declining Unemployment Rates in 2011 La Paz Yuma Cochise Santa Cruz Apache Yavapai Navajo Gila Pima Maricopa Coconino Mohave Pinal Greenlee Graham Unemployment Rate (Year-over-Year Change, bps) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (annual data through 2011).

10 However, Unemployment Rates Remain Above Average Yuma Santa Cruz Apache Navajo Pinal Graham Gila Mohave La Paz Greenlee Cochise Yavapai 2011 Pima Maricopa Coconino 20 Years Average Unemployment Rate (%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (annual data through 2011).

11 Higher Unemployment Levels May Be Straining the State s Major Metros Most Yavapai Pinal Mohave Pima Maricopa Navajo Yuma Gila Graham Apache Santa Cruz Cochise La Paz Coconino Greenlee Unemployment Rate (Difference between 2011 and 20-Year-Average, bps) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (annual data through 2011).

12 Discouraged and Marginally-Attached Workers Remain Prevalent in Arizona Total Unemployment (Four-quarter average,% of labor force) Arizona Nevada California US Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (data through fourth quarter 2011). Note: Total unemployment is defined as "U6" from the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey, which includes discouraged and marginally-attached workers, as well as those working part-time for economic reasons.

13 A Shrinking Labor Force May Be Masking Additional Weakness Labor Force (Difference year-to-year, in thousands, seasonally-adjusted) Tucson 20 Metro Area Phoenix Metro Area Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Shaded areas are national recessions.

14 Arizona s Manufacturing, Construction, and Information Sectors Have Lost Jobs During the Last Decade Employment (Thousands) Manufacturing Construction Information Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (annual data through 2011).

15 Migration to Phoenix Slowed in 2010 and Turned Negative Elsewhere in the State, But Forecasts Are Positive Net Migration (thousands of people) Phoenix Rest of Arizona Source: Moody s Economy.com (annual data through 2010 are historical, 2011 are forecast).

16 House Prices Are Still Falling, but Declines Have Moderated in Most Western States House Price Index (Percent change) 6 NV WA CA HI UT AZ OR ID WY MT AK US Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Purchase-Only House Price Index.

17 Home Prices Have Fallen Sharply From Recent Peak Levels across Arizona House Price Index (Indexed to First Quarter 1995) Tucson Flagstaff Phoenix Prescott Yuma Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index. Note: Phoenix Metro Area represents the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale Metro Division.

18 Residential Construction Remains Near Record Low Levels Housing Permit Issuance (Units, Four-Quarter Trailing Sum) - Arizona 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 One-to-Four Family Building Permits 50,000 40, ,000 20,000 Multifamily (5+) Building Permits 10, Source: Census Bureau (quarterly data through fourth quarter 2011).

19 In Summary Labor markets across Arizona have strengthened, but are still far from a full recovery. Migration flows are increasing perhaps both a positive and a negative. The pace of the housing market recovery will The pace of the housing market recovery will likely continue to influence the labor market.