TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN ARIZONA

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Noel Goodman
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1 TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN ARIZONA January 2011 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2 National Trends Even though NBER officially announced the recession s end in June of 2009, pace of recovery remains slow Unemployment rate in November rose to 9.8% from 9.6%, demonstrating continued weakness in the labor market On the more positive side, the private sector has been adding jobs each month, and part of the rise in unemployment is due to an increase in the labor force-that is, the number of people who started looking for work Housing is the one major sector of the economy where we still do not see signs of recovery New and existing home sales remain near historic lows, and inventories of foreclosed homes remain very high Public sector budget crisis in many states is of major concern, and threatens viability of services to LMI communities

3 National Trends

4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010 Unemployment continues to hover around 10% 12 U.S. Unemployment Rate 10 Unemployment Rate Recession

5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010 Recovery, particularly in labor market, remains elusive Months Since Start of Recession to Employment Recovery 0% Percent Decline in Employment from Peak -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% %

6 Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index Case-Shiller Index shows continued softness in housing market Case-Shiller National House Price Index (2000 = 100, Quarterly)

7 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), includes refinancing and is not seasonally adjusted FHFA House Price Index rises slightly in 3 rd Qtr of FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) 160 FHFA House Price Index 2000=

8 Nationally, delinquencies drop in 2010, but still more than 4.5 million homes in distress 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey Loans in Foreclosure

9 Despite improvement, high rates of delinquency remain concentrated in western and southern states Source: Lender Processing Service Inc. Applied Analytics, November 2010

10 HAMP modifications down; borrowers still face challenges in obtaining permanent modifications 120, ,000 80,000 Modifications 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 November December January 2010 New HAMP Trials Started Source: HAMP Service Performance Report Through October 2010 February March April May June July August September October New Permanent Modifications Started

11 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Household debt falling from 2008 peak 12 Total Debt Balance and Composition Mortgage Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan 10 Trillions of Dollars

12 Source: Data from Center for Budget and Policy Priorities Many states within 12 th District face severe budget shortfalls Total End-of-Year Shortfall as Percentage of 2010 Budget

13 Arizona Trends

14 Arizona s unemployment rate holding steady at 9.5 percent Unemployment Rate 6 4 United States Arizona Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Recession

15 Unemployment rates in Arizona vary by county Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2010

16 Arizona seeing continued decline in house prices FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) Arizona 190 FHFA House Price Index 2000= United States Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

17 No signs of stabilization in the major metropolitan areas 230 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000 = 100) 210 Flagstaff FHFA House Price Index 2000= Tucson Phoenix-Mesa Yuma Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

18 Continued decline in number of delinquent mortgages, but number of properties in foreclosure process rises 180, , ,000 Number of Mortgages 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

19 Average household debt in Arizona falling from peak in Thousands of Dollars California Nevada US Average Arizona Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY Household debt includes: mortgage accounts, HE revolving accounts, auto loans, credit cards, and student loans

20 Arizona Foreclosure Data Maps

21 Arizona Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures July 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

22 Arizona Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

23 Arizona Data Maps Areas At Risk Of Additional Foreclosures July 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

24 Arizona Data Maps Areas At Risk Of Additional Foreclosures November 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

25 Phoenix Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures July 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

26 Phoenix Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

27 Phoenix Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures July 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

28 Phoenix Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

29 Oregon Tucson Area Data Data Maps Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures July 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

30 Oregon Tucson Area Data Data Maps Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

31 Tucson Area Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures July 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

32 Tucson Area Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

33 Conclusions

34 For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events

TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN NEVADA

TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN NEVADA January 2011 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco National Trends Even though NBER officially announced the recession