HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS - ALASKA

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1 HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS - ALASKA May 2011 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2 National Trends

3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010 Unemployment dips below 9% 12 U.S. Unemployment Rate 10 Unemployment Rate Recession

4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2010 Recovery, particularly in labor market, remains elusive Months Since Start of Recession to Employment Recovery 0% Percent Decline in Employment from Peak -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% %

5 Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index Case-Shiller Index shows continued softness in housing market Case-Shiller National House Price Index (2000 = 100, Quarterly)

6 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), includes refinancing and is not seasonally adjusted FHFA House Price Index Dips Again at End of FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) 160 FHFA House Price Index 2000=

7 Nationally, delinquencies drop in 2010, but still more than 4.5 million homes in distress 6,000,000 5,000,000 Number of Mortgages 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey Loans in Foreclosure

8 Despite improvement, high rates of delinquency remain concentrated in western and southern states Source: Lender Processing Service Inc. Applied Analytics, November 2010

9 Source: HAMP Service Performance Report Through January 2011 HAMP modifications down; borrowers still face challenges in obtaining permanent modifications 120, ,000 80,000 Modifications 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 February March April May June July August September October November December January 2011 New HAMP Trials Started New Permanent Modifications Started

10 Composition of distressed sales 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Arizona and Nevada California Florida Industrial Midwest Pacific NW South Northeast Rocky Mountain Damaged REO Move-In Ready REO Short Sale Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011

11 Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties 100% 90% 80% Who Is Buying Properties? February 2011 Percent of Property Type 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Investor First-Time Homebuyer Current Homeowner 0% Damaged REO Move-In Ready REO Short Sale Non-Distressed Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011

12 Financing for home purchases 100% Percent of Buyer-Side Transactions 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 28% 4% 19% 20% 30% 16% 18% 5% 14% 55% 11% 5% 2% 75% All Other Financing VA Fannie/Freddie FHA Cash Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011

13 Source: Data from Center for Budget and Policy Priorities Many states within 12 th District face severe budget shortfalls Total End-of-Year Shortfall as Percentage of 2010 Budget

14 Alaska Trends

15 Unemployment rate in Alaska still below national average Unemployment Rate United States Alaska Recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 Unemployment rates in Alaska by county Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2011

17 Alaska s real estate market remains stable 170 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) Alaska 160 FHFA House Price Index 2000= United States Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

18 House price changes at the metro level 180 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000 = 100, quarterly) Anchorage FHFA House Price Index 2000= Fairbanks Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

19 Alaska foreclosures and delinquencies fell in last quarter of ,000 5,000 Number of Mortgages 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

20 Alaska Foreclosure Data Maps

21 Alaska Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

22 Alaska Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

23 Conclusion

24 For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events