TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN IDAHO

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Candice Dennis
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1 TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN IDAHO January 2011 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2 National Trends Even though NBER officially announced the recession s end in June of 2009, pace of recovery remains slow Unemployment rate in November rose to 9.8% from 9.6%, demonstrating continued weakness in the labor market On the more positive side, the private sector has been adding jobs each month, and part of the rise in unemployment is due to an increase in the labor force-that is, the number of people who started looking for work Housing is the one major sector of the economy where we still do not see signs of recovery New and existing home sales remain near historic lows, and inventories of foreclosed homes remain very high Public sector budget crisis in many states is of major concern, and threatens viability of services to LMI communities

3 National Trends

4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010 Unemployment continues to hover around 10% 12 U.S. Unemployment Rate 10 Unemployment Rate Recession

5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010 Recovery, particularly in labor market, remains elusive Months Since Start of Recession to Employment Recovery 0% Percent Decline in Employment from Peak -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% %

6 Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index Case-Shiller Index shows continued softness in housing market Case-Shiller National House Price Index (2000 = 100, Quarterly)

7 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), includes refinancing and is not seasonally adjusted FHFA House Price Index rises slightly in 3 rd Qtr of FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) 160 FHFA House Price Index 2000=

8 Nationally, delinquencies drop in 2010, but still more than 4.5 million homes in distress 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey Loans in Foreclosure

9 Despite improvement, high rates of delinquency remain concentrated in western and southern states Source: Lender Processing Service Inc. Applied Analytics, November 2010

10 HAMP modifications down; borrowers still face challenges in obtaining permanent modifications 120, ,000 80,000 Modifications 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 November December January 2010 New HAMP Trials Started Source: HAMP Service Performance Report Through October 2010 February March April May June July August September October New Permanent Modifications Started

11 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Household debt falling from 2008 peak 12 Total Debt Balance and Composition Mortgage Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan 10 Trillions of Dollars

12 Source: Data from Center for Budget and Policy Priorities Many states within 12 th District face severe budget shortfalls Total End-of-Year Shortfall as Percentage of 2010 Budget

13 Idaho Trends

14 Idaho s unemployment rate rose in second half of Unemployment Rate 6 4 United States 2 Idaho Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Recession

15 Unemployment rates in Idaho vary by county Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2010

16 Idaho seeing continued softening of real estate market 180 FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000=100, quarterly) 170 Idaho FHFA House Price Index 2000= United States Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

17 House prices in Boise and Couer d Alene continue to decline 210 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000 = 100) Couer d'alene FHFA House Price Index 2000= Boise Idaho Falls Pocatello Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

18 Foreclosures rise in 3 rd quarter while delinquent mortgages seem to be stabilizing 30,000 25,000 Number of Mortgages 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

19 Idaho Foreclosure Data Maps

20 Idaho Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures July 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

21 Idaho Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

22 Idaho Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures July 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

23 Idaho Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2010 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

24 Conclusions

25 For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events

TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN OREGON

TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN OREGON January 2011 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco National Trends Even though NBER officially announced the recession