CBER-LIED Report on Housing-Market Conditions

Transcription

1 CBER-LIED Report on Housing-Market Conditions CBER and Lied Institute Report Volume 59, 2nd, Housing Markets Remained Downbeat in Second United States: Growth of the U.S. economy picked up to a slow pace in second quarter, but indicators of national housing-market conditions improved only slightly. The seasonally adjusted national S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose by less than 0.1 percent from first to second quarter. a The nonseasonally adjusted index rose by 3.6 percent. At a value of , the index was 5.9 percent below a year earlier and at levels seen in early Weakness in housing prices remains widespread throughout the United States. The 10- city and 20-city composite indexes for second quarter were both 0.2 percent below their first quarter values. At a value of during second quarter, the 10-city composite index was 3.8 percent below its value of a year earlier. At a value of , the 20-city composite index was 4.5 percent below its value of a year earlier. a Default risk continues to overhang the U.S. housing market. During second quarter, 22.5 percent, or 10.9 million, of all U.S. residential properties with a mortgage had negative equity, and 5.0 percent, 2.4 million, had less than 5 percent equity. These figures indicate a slight improvement over first quarter when 22.7 percent of all residential mortgages had negative equity, and 5 percent had less than 5 percent equity. b For the second quarter of, the total number of foreclosure filings was 608,235, a decline of 11 and 32 percent from the first quarter of and the second quarter of, respectively. During second quarter, foreclosed homes accounted for 31 percent of all residential sales in the United States, down from 36.0 percent in first quarter. c Nevada: Nevada housing market conditions slightly improved from first to second quarter. In second quarter, loan-to-value ratios averaged 112.7, which was down from the average for first quarter. b Residential building permits took a one-month surge in June. As a result, second quarter building permits were 48 percent higher than in the first quarter and 14.1 percent higher than a year earlier. Despite improvement, Nevada led the nation in negative equity mortgages. In Nevada, 60.4 percent of the residential properties had negative equity, and 4.9 percent had

2 Housing-Market Conditions Housing-Market Conditions Cont d less than 5 percent equity. These figures indicate a slight improvement in comparison to first quarter when 62.6 percent of all residential mortgages had negative equity, and 4.8 percent had less than 5 percent equity. b Foreclosure filings (at about 53,217) during the first six months of were down by 17 percent in comparison to the previous six months and the first half of. During second quarter, foreclosed homes accounted for 65.4 percent of sales in Nevada, up from 53.0 percent in first quarter. c Las Vegas: Las Vegas housing-market conditions weakened from first to second quarter. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Las Vegas fell by 2 percent from the end of first quarter to the end of second quarter. At a value of 95.67, the index was 6 percent below a year earlier and at levels seen in a A CBER/Lied Institute calculation, using CoreLogic data, shows the median home price fell from $130,000 in first quarter to $128,000 in second quarter. At 63.3 percent, the Las Vegas metropolitan area led the nation in the percentage of homes with negative equity in second quarter, even though the figure represents an improvement from the 66 percent value posted in first quarter. Las Vegas is followed by Phoenix at 53.7 percent and Orlando at 53.1 percent. In the second quarter, Las Vegas also led the nation in terms of loan-to-value ratio. The loan-to-value ratio averaged 119.7, which was down from the average for first quarter. The national ratio was b Other statistics also point to slight improvements in the Las Vegas real estate market. The Las Vegas metropolitan area saw a decline in foreclosure filings from 26,275 units (3.2 percent of all housing units) in first quarter to 17,669 units (2.2 percent) in second quarter. In addition, the average time on the market of single-family residential units that sold declined slightly. c The CBER/Lied Institute estimate of excess housing supply at 10,336 in the Las Vegas metropolitan area for second quarter represents a 1.3 percent increase from first quarter. The apartment vacancy rate was nudged downward to 10.4 percent. The vacancy rate for single-family residences rose from 2.4 percent in first quarter to 2.5 percent in second quarter. (Although the vacancy rates for single-family residences reflect only vacancies in listings with the Multiple Listing Service, the direction is indicative.) Building permits for single-family residences increased by 42 percent from first to second quarter, and permits for multifamily units increased by 36 percent. Permits Page 2

3 Housing-Market Conditions Housing-Market Conditions Cont d for commercial units were down by 9 percent. In addition, Clark County redeemed drivers licenses were 14,645 in second quarter representing a 2.7 percent increase over first quarter and a 23.7 percent increase over second quarter. Stephen P. A. Brown, PhD Professor of Economics Director, Center for Business and Economic Research Nasser Daneshvary, PhD Professor of Economics Director, Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies Sources: a S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ( b CoreLogic ( c RealtyTrac ( com) Table 1 Estimated Excess Supply of Housing Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area by Housing Type: Q2 Type of Housing Unit 1 Vacant Units 2 the Greater Las Normal Vacancy Estimated Units in Assumed Percent Vegas Area Rate (%) Estimated Normal Vacant Inventory Estimated Excess Supply 3 Single-family detached 11, , ,111 4,802 Condominium 1,822 89, ,147 (1,325) Townhouse 1,064 39, Apartment 17, , ,418 6,590 Total 31, , ,471 10,336 1 Excludes mobile homes and multiplex l units 2 Vacant units listed for sale on Multiple Listing Service. Analysis provided by Residential Resources. 3 Estimated excess supply = vacant units less estimated normal vacancy inventory Page 3

4 Permits: A Future Market Indicator 2,000 Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit 1 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, nd, Total: 1,667 3rd, Total: 1,094 4th, Total: 1,128 1st, Total: 1,344 2nd, Total: 1,848 Commercial Units Multifamily Units Single-Family Units 1,306 1, ,222 Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority 1 1,200 1, nd, Total: 1,598 3rd, Total: 1,035 4th, Total: 1,073 1st, Total: 1,274 2nd, Total: 1,784 Uninc. Clark County ,037 City of Las Vegas City of North Las Vegas Henderson Boulder City Mesquite Page 4

5 Single-Family Housing Market: Details 6,000 Distribution of House Size in Square Feet 2 5,000 4,685 4,890 5,007 4,906 4,766 4,000 3,000 2,297 2,294 2,303 2,296 2,288 2,000 1,807 1,789 1,806 1,794 1,796 1,489 1,470 1,478 1,468 1,468 1, nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, Distribution of Sales Price 2 $700, $600,000 $635,100 $650,000 $658,390 $631,300 $619,150 $500,000 $400, $300,000 $200,000 $100, $203,500 $199,000 $189,000 $180,000 $176,111 $150,000 $140,000 $135,000 $130,000 $128,000 $112,000 $104,800 $99,900 $94,500 $92,500 $0 $27,490 $7,513 $18,119 $25,000 $26,000 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, Note: The boxplots is a graphical presentation of the distribution of values. Each plot includes the minimum, the first quartile, the median or second quartile, the third quartile, and the maximum values. The box in the middle represents the range of the middle 50 percent of values, from the first quartile to the third quartile. The line inside the box shows the value of the median. The lower and upper 25 percent of the values are represented by the lines connecting the minimum and maximum values to the box from below and above, respectively. To avoid the effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market, the distributions are based on the middle 98 percent of the actual data. Note that all distributions are right-skewed, due to a few high values. Page 5

6 Single-Family Housing Market: Details $200 Distribution of Price per Square Foot 2 $180 $187 $187 $180 $175 $172 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $99 $82 $67 $94 $78 $64 $91 $88 $86 $74 $72 $71 $60 $58 $58 $40 $20 $0 $20 $21 $15 $16 $4 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, $500, Distribution of Total Mortgage Value 2 $450,000 $446,559 $400,000 $417,000 $417,000 $417,000 $417,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $189,994 $186,929 $180,000 $175,437 $170,905 $150,000 $144,000 $134,093 $131,853 $126,704 $122,580 $100,000 $50,000 $109,125 $102,629 $100,000 $45,048 $44,000 $40,000 $94,194 $91,915 $32,000 $31,500 $0 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, Note: The boxplots is a graphical presentation of the distribution of values. Each plot includes the minimum, the first quartile, the median or second quartile, the third quartile, and the maximum values. The box in the middle represents the range of the middle 50 percent of values, from the first quartile to the third quartile. The line inside the box shows the value of the median. The lower and upper 25 percent of the values are represented by the lines connecting the minimum and maximum values to the box from below and above, respectively. To avoid the effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market, the distributions are based on the middle 98 percent of the actual data. Note that all distributions are right-skewed, due to a few high values. Page 6

7 Single-Family Housing Market: Details MLS Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units 3 23,500 $149,000 22,500 $145,000 21,500 $141,000 20,500 19,500 $137,000 18,500 $133,000 17,500 October November December January February March April May June Available units (left axis) 22,570 22,624 21,656 22,010 22,307 22,184 22,443 22,767 22,702 Median list price (right axis) $139,900 $139,000 $135,000 $134,900 $132,000 $130,000 $130,000 $129,900 $129,900 $129,000 Percent Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market 3 100% 90% 18.3% 19.4% 20.2% 18.7% 17.7% 15.3% 80% 70% 60% 50% 10.6% 11.0% 8.9% 15.5% 13.8% 14.0% 21.0% 20.8% 19.6% 8.0% 12.5% 21.0% 7.4% 12.3% 19.2% 74% 7.4% 10.7% 21.4% 40% 30% 20% 10% 34.6% 35.0% 37.4% 39.8% 43.3% 45.2% 0% January February March April May June 0-30 days days days days 120+ days Page 7

8 Single-Family Housing Market: Details Number of Single-Family Homes Sold, 2 nd, Number of Sales Q Page 8

9 Apartment Market Details ZIP CODE Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area 4 UNIT RATES Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath 3 Bed AVERAGE RATES Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Rent Vacancy * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 763 * * * 920 * % * * * 751 * * * 930 * % * * * 680 * 769 * 819 * % * * * 590 * 676 * 742 * % * * * 520 * 584 * 627 * % * * * * * * * 850 * % * * * 674 * * * 824 * % * * * 820 * 951 * 1023 * % * * * 757 * * * 917 * % * * * 695 * * * 851 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 700 * * * 840 * % * 604 * 648 * % * 518 * 577 * 623 * 723 * % * 560 * 641 * 692 * 794 * % * 440 * 521 * 607 * 652 * % * * * 562 * 596 * 713 * % * 491 * 569 * 612 * 705 * % * 495 * 633 * 628 * 763 * % * 478 * 602 * 609 * 735 * * % * * * 574 * 596 * 691 * % * * * 793 * * * 989 * * % * * * 549 * 554 * 652 * % * * * 741 * * * 869 * % * * * 710 * * * 857 * % * 611 * 768 * % * * * 638 * * * 744 * % * 484 * 573 * 633 * 710 * % * * * 614 * 739 * 764 * % * * * 737 * * * 879 * % * * * 699 * * * 799 * % * * * 664 * * * 852 * % * * * 606 * * * 726 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 945 * * * 1126 * * % * * * 821 * * * 999 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 582 * * * 681 * % 9.4% * * * 882 * * * 1026 * % * * * 786 * * * 928 * % * * * 629 * 606 * 775 * % * * * 757 * * * 893 * % * * * 830 * * * 970 * % * * * 768 * * * 1131 * % * * * * * * * 749 * % * * * 782 * * * 1049 * % * 578 * 657 * % * * * 779 * * * 908 * % METRO LV * * % * Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes. Page 9

10 Apartment Market Details Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area Rent Q2 Data suppressed Vacancy Q Vacancy Q2 Data suppressed Data suppressed Page 10

11 Local Population and Unemployment Indicators 70,000 Clark CountyRedeemed Drivers' Licenses 4 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, nd, rd, th, st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, ly 16,101 17,461 14,715 11,919 11,842 14,604 12,783 14,257 14,645 Year-to-Date 32,498 49,959 64,674 11,919 23,761 38,365 51,148 14,257 28,902 35% Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories 4 Unemployment 6 Las Vegas Q2 15.1% Q3 15.6% Q4 14.9% Q1 13.6% Q2 12.7% U.S. Q2 9.6% Q3 9.6% Q4 9.6% Q1 8.9% Q2 9.1% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2nd, rd, th, st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, Percent from California 31.4% 31.1% 32.0% 31.7% 32.1% 31.6% 30.0% 33.2% 31.5% Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 12.6% 11.4% 12.8% 13.9% 14.5% 14.4% 15.5% 14.4% 14.3% Page 11

12 Housing Market: Regional Comparisons $600,000 Median Home Prices in Selected Western Counties 5 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, Clark County, NV $148,000 $140,000 $137,900 $129,900 $129,900 Maricopa County, AZ $150,000 $145,900 $140,000 $132,000 $134,900 Salt Lake County, UT $217,500 $220,000 $211,644 $200,000 $199,749 Los Angeles County, CA $345,000 $347,500 $335,000 $320,000 $329,000 Orange County, CA $520,000 $520,000 $495,000 $485,000 $500, % ly Increase in Median Home Price 5 4.0% 20% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, Clark County, NV 3.6% -5.4% -1.5% -5.8% 0.0% Maricopa County, AZ 2.0% -2.7% -4.0% -5.7% 2.2% Salt Lake County, UT 2.0% 1.1% -3.8% -5.5% -0.1% Los Angeles County, CA 4.9% 0.7% -3.6% -4.5% 2.8% Orange County, CA 3.0% 0.0% -4.8% -2.0% 3.1% Page 12

13 National Housing Market Conditions 7 Latest quarter Previous quarter % change Same quarter from previous previous year quarter % change from last year HOUSING PRODUCTION Permits Starts Under construction Completions Manufactured (mobile) home shipments HOUSING MARKETING New homes sold New homes for sale Month's supply of new homes Existing homes sold Existing homes for sale Month's supply of existing homes Median new home price Average new home price Constant house quality new home price Median existing home price Average existing home price Composite housing affordability index Fixed-rate housing affordability index Apartments completed Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months Median asking rent Manufactured (mobile) home placements Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars) Builders housing market index Builders current sales activity Builders future sales expectations Builders prospective buyer traffic HOUSING FINANCE Conventional fixed-rate 30 year Conventional ARMs Conventional lfixed-rate 15 year FHA applications received FHA total endorsements FHA purchase endorsements VA certificates PMI certificates HOUSING INVESTMENT GDP (in billions of dollars) Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars) RFI percent of GDP HOUSING INVENTORY All housing units Occupied units Owner occupied Rental vacancy rate Page 13

14 Housing-Market: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Figure 1 Case-Shiller Home Price Index: January 1987 to June Ho ome Price Index Las Vegas, NV Base month, January 2000 = Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices < U.S. (10 city composite) Sources: 1 Local building permit-issuing agencies. 2 CBER/Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions RealQuest data based on new and existing recorded home sales. 3 Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes sold by local builders. 4 CBER. 5 First American CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions data based on recorded home sales. These statistics may differ from CBER/Lied Institute calculations based on the same data (reported on page 13) because First American CoreLogic uses raw estimates. 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics and Nevada Department of Training and Rehabilitation. 7 U.S. Housing Market Conditions 1st, ( Note: As of the 1st, 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect only single-family housing. Copyright Report on Housing-Market Conditions Report on Housing-Market Conditions is intended for subscribers. Subscribers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Send address changes to: The Center for Business and Economic Research, UNLV, Box , 4505 S. Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, Phone: (702) Fax: (702) cber@unlv.nevada.edu. Web page: Page 14