Housing & Mortgage Outlook. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist May 22, 2018

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Housing & Mortgage Outlook. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist May 22, 2018"

Frederica Watts
5 years ago
Views:

1 Housing & Mortgage Outlook Frank Nothaft Chief Economist May 22, 2018

2 Economic & Housing Outlook Effect of higher mortgage rates Inventory-for-sale remains low Less refinance, more purchase & home-improvement HELOCs Tax reform effect on home prices and sales (none so far) 2

3 Short-term Interest Rates Heading Up Federal funds target as of today: 1.50% to 1.75% Federal funds target projected for December 31, 2018 (based on FOMC member projections): Federal Funds Target Number of FOMC Members Same as today % to 2.25% 6 Median 2.25% to 2.50% % to 2.75% 1 FOMC Members projecting 15 Source: Federal Open Market Committee projections released March 21, 2018 (individual FOMC participant s judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of 2018). 3

4 Mortgage Rates Heading Up Rates today at 4.5%; forecast to rise to 4.8% by Dec & 5.1% by Dec % Interest Rate on 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages (percent) Forecast 6% 5% April 2011: 5.1% Sept. 2013: 4.5% Dec. 2019: 5.1% 4% Great Recession 3% Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey ; forecast is an average of MBA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, NAHB, NAR and IHS Markit projections. 4 4

5 Effect of Higher Mortgage Rates Interest rates expected to rise in 2018: Affordability lessens Owner mobility may lessen, for-sale inventory remains lean Adds to home-price pressure: expect 6% national HPI rise in 2018 Single-family originations: less refinance, more purchase, HELOC flat New refi mix: more FHA-to-conventional, cash-out, longer-term New loans: credit box may open up, fraud risk may increase 5

6 Rising Rates A Hurdle for Home Sales Percent of home buyers that sell by length of ownership, % 6% Peak 3-7 Years 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Number of Years Source: CoreLogic 6 6

7 Rising Rates A Hurdle for Home Sales Percent of home buyers that sell by length of ownership, % 6% Rates down 1.5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Rates up 1.5% Number of Years Source: CoreLogic 7 7

8 Percent Difference Between List Price and Sold Price Discount Premium Price Pressures Rapidly Increase As Supply Drops Below 3 Months 6% 4% San Jose San Francisco 2% 0% Seattle Los Angeles -2% -4% Houston -6% -8% Miami -10% -12% Source: CoreLogic (August 2017) Naples Atlantic City Months' Supply 8 8 8

9 Inventory Tighter for Entry-Level Buyers August 2017 August 2016 Months Supply by Price Tier Aug Entry Level Supply Price Tier (Percent of Median Price) Source: CoreLogic, National Association of Realtors 9 9 9

10 Demographic Tailwind Has Arrived Texas Population in 2017 (Millions) 0.43 Peak Millennial Age Average Age Firsttime Homebuyer Average Age Repeat Buyer Age in 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates by state and age 10

11 Expect U.S. HPI Up 6% Per Year, 2018 & 2019 Oct back at 2006 peak, but real (inflation-adjusted) index was 18% below 220 CoreLogic Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Forecast % Source: CoreLogic HPI (May 1, 2018 release), U.S. HPI pre-recession peak occurred April 2006, trough March 2011; CoreLogic HPI Forecast 11 11

12 Expect Houston HPI Up 3% Per Year, 2018 & 2019 Mar nominal 27% above 2007, real (inflation-adjusted) index 8% above CoreLogic Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) 54% Forecast U.S. Houston 48% Source: CoreLogic HPI (May 1, 2018 release), Houston CBSA pre-recession peak occurred June 2007, trough March 2011; CoreLogic HPI Forecast 12 12

13 CoreLogic SFRI Uses Rent of New Tenants; CPI Rent Index Exhibits a 12-Month Lag Percent Change from One Year Ago 6% 4% 2% CPI Rent CoreLogic SFRI 0% -2% -4% -6% Jan-05 Mar-07 May-09 Jul-11 Sep-13 Nov-15 Jan-18 CoreLogic SFRI CPI Rent of Primary Residence Source: CoreLogic Single-family Rental Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI (through February 2018) 13 13

14 Annual SF Rent Growth in Houston CBSA: Energy Jobs, Natural Disaster Affect Market Percent Change from One Year Ago 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% US SFRI Houston -6% Jan-05 Mar-07 May-09 Jul-11 Sep-13 Nov-15 Jan-18 Source: CoreLogic Single-family Rental Index (through February 2018) 14 14

15 Rent Growth Faster in Low-Vacancy Metro Areas Real Rent Growth (percent, 2016Q4 to 2017Q4) 4% Seattle San Francisco 2% San Diego Los Angeles Houston 0% -2% Linear Trend -4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Rental Vacancy Rate (percent, 2017) Source: CoreLogic Single-family Rental Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index less Shelter, U.S. Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey (Table 4), 35 metropolitan areas; line represents a univariate regression 15

16 Average Equity Gain per Homeowner in 2017 U.S.: Average $15,100 per home Houston, TX CBSA: Average $6,500 Source: CoreLogic Equity Report for 2017 Q

17 HELOC Volume Projected to Hold Steady 7.5% growth in home improvement HELOCs projected for 2018 offsets decline in HELOCs for other purposes $400 Approved HELOCs (Billions of Dollars) $350 $300 $250 $200 Forecast $150 $100 $50 $ Source: CoreLogic public records, second-lien HELOCs placed more than 60 days after first lien; Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies LIRA

18 More Purchase, Less Refi in 2018 and 2019 Smaller refi share leads to more stable annual originations forecast after 2017 $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 Single-family Mortgage Originations (Billions of dollars) ---Forecast to 2018: Total: - 7% Refi: - 30% Purch: + 6% Refinance Purchase $ Source: were benchmarked to HMDA. Forecast: 2018 & 2019 are an average of the latest projections released by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and Mortgage Bankers Association. Originations exclude HELOCs

19 When Rates Rise, Refi Credit Scores Fall Refi Credit Scores Dip 10 points For Each 0.6% Rise in Mortgage Rates 30-Year FRM Rates (percent) Refinance Credit Score (mean) Inverse Scale Year Rates (left) Lower Credit Score Refinance Credit Scores (right) Jan 2009 Jul 2010 Jan 2012 Jul 2013 Jan 2015 Jul 2016 Jan 2018 Higher Credit Score Source: CoreLogic TrueStandings Servicing, Freddie Mac (monthly average 30-year FRM led one month) 19 19

20 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017: Impact on Owner-Occupied Housing 1. Lowered maximum loan size for interest deductibility on new first liens to $750, Eliminated interest deductibility on many second liens. 3. Capped annual tax deduction for state and local income and property taxes at $10, Increased standard deduction reduces itemizers; lower marginal rates reduce deductions value for those who do itemize. Source: CoreLogic analysis of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Public Law no

21 High-Cost Areas Price Trend Similar to Prior Years CoreLogic Median Price Index (2-week moving average, June 1 st -2 nd week=100) House Bill Passed Nov. 16 Tax Law Signed Dec. 22 June 2017 to Feb Average Four Prior Years Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Source: CoreLogic, 2-week moving average of MLS median sales price in high-cost area ZIP codes

22 Lower-cost Areas Price Trend Similar to Past Years CoreLogic Median Price Index (2-week moving average, June 1 st -2 nd week=100) House Bill Passed Nov. 16 Tax Law Signed Dec June 2017 to Feb Average Four Prior Years Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Source: CoreLogic, 2-week moving average of MLS median sales price in non-high-cost area ZIP codes

23 Economic & Housing Outlook Effect of higher mortgage rates Inventory-for-sale remains low Less refinance, more purchase & home-improvement HELOCs Tax reform effect on home prices and sales (none so far) 23

24 Where to find more information Look for regular updates to our housing forecast, commentary and data The views, opinions, forecasts and estimates herein are those of the CoreLogic Office of the Chief Economist, are subject to change without notice and do not necessarily reflect the position of CoreLogic or its management. The Office of the Chief Economist makes every effort to provide accurate and reliable information, however, it does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, timeliness or suitability for any particular purpose. CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries

The 2017 Economic Outlook Summit

The 2017 Economic Outlook Summit Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Mount Vernon-Lee Chamber of Commerce Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist April 6, 2017 2017 Market: Less Affordability