The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook
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- Brittany Cameron
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1 The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & The views, opinions, forecasts and estimates herein are those of the CoreLogic Office of the Chief Economist, are subject to change without notice and do not necessarily reflect the position of CoreLogic or its management. The Office of the Chief Economist makes every effort to provide accurate and reliable information, however, it does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, timeliness or suitability for any particular purpose. CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
2 Household Mobility & Mortgage Market Trends Household Trends: Millenniums have added to housing need: renters today, owners tomorrow Homeowners (primarily Baby Boomers) are staying in their homes longer Interstate buyers driven by affordability, jobs, weather Mortgage Trends: Home-price growth & lessened mobility prompts more home-improvement High LTV & debt-to-income products are in market, but need good credit While overall credit risk remains low, fraud risk increases
3 Population in 2015 (Millions) Large Demographic Tailwind Has Arrived Largest Age Cohort Average Age First-time Homebuyer Average Age Repeat Buyer Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population as of July 1, 2015 Age in
4 Source: CoreLogic (purchase loan applications, Jan-Oct 2016) Millennial Share of Buyers Lower in Expensive Markets 20% Share of Purchase-Money Applicants Aged Under 30 16% 12% 8% 4%
5 Americans Are Keeping Their Homes Longer Number of Years A Home Is Owned (Median) Owner Occupants Home Sellers Source: American Housing Survey for the United States, various years (difference between survey year and median year owner-occupant moved into unit), CoreLogic public records for United States (length of time between recorded sales on same home).
6 States in Green are Top 2 Sources States in Red are Top 2 Destinations Source: CoreLogic (purchase loan applications, Jan-Oct 2016) Interstate Buyers Seek Affordability, Jobs and Warmth 4 NY, NJ NC, CA, CO VA, CA, CO CA, CA, TX CA, OR NY, PA Ratio of Buyers Moving In to Moving Out All Ages, KY VA, NJ, MD,, IN TX, NV Ratio of Buyers Moving Out to Moving In NJ,
7 Millennials: Affordability & Jobs Baby Boomers: Affordability & Warmth Ages Ages 55 and Older State in Green is Top Source State in Red is Top Destination NC NY VA CA AZ CA OR NY KY VA NJ GA MD IN TX NJ NY NC CA CA NY AZ NJ AZ Source: CoreLogic (purchase loan applications, Jan-Oct 2016)
8 New-Home Sales Levels Highest in the South Monthly Number of New Sales (Average) New Home Sale Share ,000 1,500 2,000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Based on the Top 100 Metros for Home Sales Houston TX Dallas TX Atlanta GA Phoenix AZ Austin TX Charlotte NC Washington DC San Antonio TX Orlando Tampa Denver CO Nashville TN Riverside CA New York NY Raleigh NC Las Vegas NV Jacksonville Raleigh NC Austin TX Charleston SC San Antonio TX Provo UT Houston TX Columbia SC Dallas TX Charlotte NC Jacksonville Naples Lakeland Baton Rouge LA Boise ID Nashville TN Orlando Las Vegas NV Source: CoreLogic. Left: average monthly new homes sold Oct 2015 to Sept 2016; Right: new-home share of sales Oct 2015 to Sept 2016; top 100 CBSAs based on new and existing home sales.
9 Highest Growth New-Home Markets (top 100 metros) Metros with: good affordability, good job growth, good weather have had the highest growth in new-home sales over the last year Source: CoreLogic, percent change, number of new-home sales Oct 2015-to-Sept 2016 vs. Oct 2014-to-Sept 2015, based on 100 largest metros for new home sales. Boise ID Port St. Lucie Sacramento CA Daphne AL Anaheim CA Salt Lake City UT Colorado Springs CO Phoenix AZ Knoxville TN Des Moines IA San Diego CA Dallas TX Atlanta GA Portland OR Greeley CO Pensacola Tampa Deltona Nashville TN Tucson AZ Highest Growth New-Home Metros 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
10 U.S. Home Prices: Price to Moderate to 4.7% in 2017 CoreLogic Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Forecast % % Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (December 6, 2016 release)
11 HELOC Volume Up in 2016 Approved HELOCs (Billions of Dollars) $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Source: CoreLogic public records, second-lien HELOCs placed more than 60 days after first lien. (Through September, Annualized)
12 Less Risk More Risk 2016 Loans Have Less Credit Risk Than Pre-2009 Loans CoreLogic Housing Credit Index (2001 = 100) Benchmark mean +1 s.d Source: CoreLogic Housing Credit Index (through 2016Q3)
13 Mortgage Credit Risk Along Six Dimensions First-Lien Home Purchase Originations Credit Score Less Than 640 Low & No Doc Share LTV Share 95 And Above DTI Share 43 And Above Condo Co-op Share Benchmark (2001 and 2002 Originations) Source: CoreLogic Housing Credit Index Non-Owner 37 Occupancy Share Current (2016:Q3)
14 Beginning 2009, Excellent Loan Performance Serious Delinquency Rate by Origination Cohort Source: CoreLogic: March
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