Emerging National [Flood Risk] Issues Affecting New Jersey Communities. John A. Miller, P.E., CFM, CSM Former United States Senate Fellow

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1 Emerging National [Flood Risk] Issues Affecting New Jersey Communities John A. Miller, P.E., CFM, CSM Former United States Senate Fellow

2 Agenda National Flood Insurance Program Credit Rating and Future Risk Higher Building Standards Disaster Recovery Reform Act Local Responsibilities Final Words [New Jersey FIT]

3 REFORM AND REAUTHORIZATION 8 th Extension for two weeks in short-term spending bill yesterday Fema.gov

4 Where the NFIP has been deficient Anticipation that housing stock would turn over and be mitigated Repetitive Loss properties a major drag on the program

5 2017 Hurricane Season Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria

6 2018 Hurricane Season Hurricanes Florence and Michael Hurricane Florence Rainfall weather.com/

7 Several bill packages have been introduced House passed

8 Reauthorization Tensions Private Market Insurance Inland States Ideology Affordability/Mitigation Coastal States Practicality

9 Pulled in many directions

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11 Credit Rating and Future Risk

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13 New Orleans, LA, Galveston, TX, Toms River and Seaside Heights, NJ and Rockport, TX credit ratings were downgraded due to residual economic effects of major storms.

14 Penn credit downgrade Miller

15 Inflection points in the consideration of climate change in municipal bond rating March 6, 2015 Moody s Questionnaire returned by Virginia Beach June 18, 2015 Moody s issues report on Hampton Roads, Virginia municipalities September 16, 2015 Fitch: sea level rise may play greater role in rating October 17, 2017 Standard & Poor s issues FAQ on municipal ratings and climate change November 28, 2017 Moody s issues report describing how climate change is evaluated in rating January 8, 2018 Breckinridge Capital issues press release on sea level rise score

16 Credit Downgrade Threat as a Non-Regulatory Driver for Flood Risk Mitigation and Sea Level Rise Adaptation

17 Key Credit Rating Findings Credit rating companies are beginning to look at the climate change threats to municipal revenue; interest will increase especially in coastal areas; Investors are asking questions about climate change as a material risk and will be driving transparency, detail and refinement in climate change risk evaluation; expect investors to demand more detailed assessments; Local government must start planning and being proactive in adaptation; they should have answers for credit agencies and investors questions on vulnerability and climate change impacts on property value and revenue.

18 Higher Building Standards

19 Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (EO 13690) Utilizing best-available, actionable data and methods that integrate current and future changes in flooding based on science, Two or three feet of elevation, depending on the criticality of the building, above the 100- year, or 1%-annual-chance, flood elevation, or 500-year, or 0.2%-annual-chance, flood elevation.

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21 H.R. 5515, the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2019

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24 Disaster Recovery Reform Act

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26 Local Responsibilities

27 Deductible for FEMA s Public Assistance Program Supplemental advance notice of proposed rulemaking

28 Bottom Line: commons.wikimedia.org Federal government is expecting a larger role (expense) for states and locals; and to beef up standards

29 Final Words

30 Final Words NFIP is pulled in too many directions what will Reform look like? Credit downgrades are coming Need to do more at the local level with standards and planning (e.g. integrate Hazard Mitigation Plans with Master Planning) Move Mitigation (Adaptation) to Predisaster The Big Hurt (Climate Change) is now upon us and need community action

31 New Jersey FEMA Integration Team

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33 NJ FIT Design New Jersey State OEM Director & FEMA Regional Administrator Jointly identified support and technical assistance needs Outcome: Preparedness: Support CERT, Provide Community Outreach, Foster Individual Preparedness, Build Resilience Hazard Mitigation: assess risk, develop risk reduction strategies and plans, and enhance statewide resiliency Response/Operational Planning: Incident Management Plans, State Plans, synchronize State/FEMA plans Recovery: Mass Care Plans, Evacuation Plans

34 FEMA Integration Team Implementation Salem, OR Sacramento, CA Olympia, WA Carson City, NV Boise, ID Salt Lake City, UT Phoenix, AZ Helena, MT Cheyenne, WY Denver, CO Santa Fe, NM Bismarck, ND Pierre, SD Lincoln, NE Topeka, KS Oklahoma City, OK Saint Paul, MN Des Moines, IA Springfield, IL Madison, WI Indianapolis, IN Lansing, MI Columbus, OH Waterbury, VT Albany, NY Harrisburg, PA Charleston, WV Augusta, ME Concord, NH Cranston, RI Hartford, CT Trenton, NJ Reisterstown, MD Richmond, VA Virginia Jefferson Frankfort, KY Beach, VA City, MO Raleigh, NC Nashville, TN Little Rock, AK Jackson, Columbia, SC MS Atlanta, GA Framingham, MA Dover, DE Honolulu, HI Austin, TX Baton Rouge, LA Montgomery, AL Tallahassee, FL In Place Projected FY18 Targeted FY19 Targeted FY20 Juneau, AK San Juan, PR Hagatna, Guam Pago Pago, American Samoa

35 Emerging National [Flood Risk] Issues Affecting New Jersey Communities John A. Miller, P.E., CFM, CSM Emergency Management Specialist Mitigation New Jersey FEMA Integration Team