Was it all for N 0 u g h t? The 00 Decade and the Year Ahead. Tony Pierson Cornerstone Real Estate Advisers LLC. Real Estate Conference

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1 Disclaimer This presentation is not intended to be and does not constitute investment advice. This is provided as an accommodation and shall not be relied upon as investment advice. This presentation includes data from third parties. No representation is made with respect to the accuracy of any such information. Slides are for entertainment only and definitely not informative. Excess laughter can be damaging to your cheek bones and is not the responsibility of Tony Pierson or his present employer. In addition, the opinions expressed here may be changed at any time.

2 Was it all for N 0 u g h t? February 18, 2010 UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Center for Real Estate Development Real Estate Conference The 00 Decade and the Year Ahead Tony Pierson Cornerstone Real Estate Advisers LLC

3 In a nutshell Today s Topics Economy was bad. It is getting better. BUT don t t downplay the risk Aren t t you thrilled to have lived through something your grandchildren will study in history and economics? Staged recovery GDP Recovery then Employment Gains Apartments: Good relative to other property types But, still face a long recovery time! Past investment performance isn t t guaranteed Which is great given how crummy the decade was Values and transaction volume look to be bottoming, so Second decade of 21 st Century should be better than first!

4 For making a little financial mess out of a BIG ONE! Alan Abelson

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7 GDP Growth Signals Recovery Ahead 8 Annualized Growth Rate % Forecast Source: Cornerstone, Economy.com

8 The Purchasing Managers (ISM) Survey Points to Improving Conditions 60 Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Source: ISM Survey

9 and Not Just in USA Source: WSJ

10 Consumer Confidence Rebounds but Dec-09 Jun-09 Dec-08 Jun-08 Dec-07 Jun-07 Dec-06 Jun-06 Dec-05 Jun-05 Dec-04 Jun-04 Dec-03 Jun-03 Dec-02 Jun-02 Dec-01 Jun-01 Dec-00 Jun-00 Source: The Conference Board

11 with a Severe Employment Recession Total Employment (Millions) /1/ /1/2000 6/1/ /1/2001 6/1/ /1/ /1/2004 6/1/ /1/2003 6/1/ /1/2005 6/1/ /1/2007 6/1/ /1/ /1/2008 6/1/ /1/2009 6/1/2009 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

12 Green Shoots in Job Market? Total change in non-farm employment from previous month (000 s) To work for what you get is the honorable thing to do; But it doesn t follow that honor is lacking if one doesn t work because the jobs aren t there Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Cornerstone Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

13 Jobless Claims Green Shoots? 700 Moving 4 week average (000s) Feb-00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Source: Employment and Training Administration

14 Where Will Employment Recover First? Forecast quarter for initial job growth U.S.=2010Q Q Q Q4 Source: Economy.com s Employment Forecast

15 Recovery in Job Creation average annual job growth forecast (%) US Orlando Houston Raleigh Austin Dallas Charlotte Denver Seattle Los Angeles Orange County San Francisco Portland Nashville Chicago Minneapolis Atlanta San Diego Boston Washington DC New York % Average Annual Growth Rate Source: Economy.com

16 The Economy hits Bottom and Recovery Begins Global recession ends U.S. employment losses cresting at historic levels Leading indicators, consumer sentiment improves Aggressive stimulus flows through world economies Flood of liquidity spurs economic growth Slack labor markets diminish near-term inflation concerns U.S. business cycle shows signs of recovery Baseline forecast: 2010 GDP recovery; 2011 employment recovery Texas and Tech markets lead; California, Florida, and Arizona lag U.S. GDP 1.1% -2.5% 2.4% 3.8% 5.1% Employment Growth -0.4% -3.7% -0.7% 1.7% 3.3% Source: Economy.com, Cornerstone Research

17 Major Hangovers Projected 2011 Deficit as a Percentage of GDP 12.5% 9.4% 7.6% U.K U.S. OECD

18 Terrorism Anxiety Keeps Morphing

19 Apartment Markets A Year Ago: A Mixed Bag 2008Q4 Apartment Occupancy Change Versus Rent Growth 10% Rents Rise and Rents and Occupancy Rise 5% Occupancy Drops Houston Rent Change 0% -5% Salt Lake City Charlotte Phoenix US Raleigh Riverside, CA -10% -15% DANGER ZONE -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Occupancy Change Rents Drop and Occupancy Rises Source: Axiometrics, Cornerstone Research

20 Apartment Markets Show Wear and Tear 2009Q3 Apartment Occupancy Change Versus Rent Growth 10% 5% Rent Change 0% -5% -10% -15% DANGER ZONE Las Vegas US Charlotte Seattle Raleigh Riverside -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Occupancy Change Source: Axiometrics, Cornerstone Research

21 Apartment Markets - Signs of Recovery? 2009Q4 Apartment Occupancy Change Versus Rent Growth 10% 5% Rent Change 0% -5% -10% -15% US Providence, RI Raleigh Houston Charlotte Las Vegas Seattle Rents Drop and Occupancy Rises -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Occupancy Change Source: Axiometrics, Cornerstone Research

22 Office Markets also a Mixed Bag a Year Ago 2008Q4 Office Occupancy Change Versus Rent Growth 20% Houston 10% Charlotte % Rent Change 0% -10% Riverside US Raleigh Toledo Pittsburgh -20% -30% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% % Occupancy Change Source: CBRE-EA, Cornerstone Research

23 Office Markets today: Sharp Deterioration 2009Q4 Office Occupancy Change Versus Rent Growth 20% Rents and Occupancy Rise 10% % Rent Change 0% -10% -20% -30% San Jose DANGER ZONE Charlotte San Francisco US Raleigh Hartford Rents Drop and Occupancy Rises -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% % Occupancy Change Source: CBRE-EA, Cornerstone Research

24 A Crazy Decade for Investment Returns 30% Total Returns Ending 4 th Quarter 2009 Past Performance is no Guarantee of Future Results Thank Heavens for That! 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Real Estate Stocks Bonds 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Source: NCREIF

25 Apartment Returns Lose some of their Luster Rank of all One-Year Returns 1999 Q4 to 2009 Q4 Apartments Industrial Office Retail First Second Third Fourth Source: NCREIF

26 Metro Area Ten Year Apartment Returns period ending 2009 Q4 The Best! Washington, DC San Diego, CA Bethesda, MD Santa Ana, CA Ft. Lauderdale, FL USA The Worst! Denver, CO Kansas City, MO Atlanta, GA Raleigh, NC Charlotte, NC Return 11.6% 10.6% 10.5% 10.3% 9.9% 6.9% 5.6% 5.0% 4.6% 3.7% 3.3% Rank Source: NCREIF, Cornerstone Research

27 Commercial Real Estate Sales Activity Monthly Sales Volume By Property Type 75 Billions of US$ Apartments Industrial Office Retail Hotel Source: Real Capital Analytics

28 Equity Transactions Billions of $ Apartments Peak Industrial Office Retail Total Source: Real Capital Analytics

29 Mortgage Maturities May Lead to Opportunity Historical maturities Increasing pressure on distressed owners to sell Decreasing pressure may accommodate real estate recovery 200 $ Billions Source: Federal Reserve Board, Foresight Analytics, Cornerstone Research. *Includes both multifamily and commercial mortgages originated by banks, insurance companies and CMBS lenders.

30 Real Estate Investment Dynamics: Pricing Property Valuations and Transaction Prices Down Sharply 2.3 NCREIF Property Index (NPI)* 2.0 MIT Transaction-Based Index (TBI) Indices (Jan =1) Moody's/REAL Property Price Index 1.0 NCREIF decline slowing, TBI index hints at bottoming * Denotes equally weighted cash flow based NCREIF appreciation return component. Notes: NCREIF and TBI are quarterly indices through 3Q09. Moody s/real is a monthly index extending through September Sources: Cornerstone Research based on data from NCREIF, MIT Center for Real Estate, and Moody s Investors Service.

31 So in Conclusion : Recession ended during the second half of 2009 GDP recovery first then Employment Gains Employment encourages Migration and Household Formation New Supply is constrained Pricing is close to bottom and financing is available So, Apartments Recover First and Attract Investors who anticipate 2012 income growth But, given experience of the last decade we need to acknowledge great risk to forecasts (and Economists)