The Great Recession. Recovery: Uneven, But Gaining Steam! 2/15/11. Jon Haveman Owner, Compass Economics SPUR January 25, 2010
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1 Recovery: Uneven, But Gaining Steam! Jon Haveman Owner, Compass Economics SPUR January 25, 21 The Great Recession 1-2 Punch of Credit Crisis and Consumer Retrenchment GDP Growth (SAAR) to Q (%) Q1-6 Q2-6 Q3-6 Q4-6 Q1-7 Q2-7 Q3-7 Q4-7 Q1-8 Q2-8 Q3-8 Q4-8 Q1-9 Q2-9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q1-1 Q2-1 Q3-1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 1
2 (%) Jan- 5 US Unemployment Unemployment Rate to November Aug- 5 Mar- 6 Oct- 6 May- 7 Dec- 7 Jul- 8 Source: Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs Feb- 9 Sep- 9 Apr- 1 Nov- 1 (%) ParEcipaEon Rate to November Jan- Mar- 1 May- 2 Jul- 3 Sep- 4 Nov- 5 Jan- 7 Source: Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs Mar- 8 May- 9 Jul- 1 Change in Payrolls (Thousands) Jan- 7 Jun- 7 Nov- 7 Apr- 8 Jobs, Jobs, Jobs NaEonal Change in Payrolls to November Sep- 8 Feb- 9 Jul- 9 Source: Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs Dec- 9 May- 1 Oct- 1 Change in Payrolls by Sector Jan- 3 to Dec- 7 Dec- 7 to Dec Change Total Nonfarm 7,685-8, Prof/Business 2,127-1, EducaVon/Health 2, Admin Support 79-1, Health Care 1, Leisure/Hospitality 1, Manufacturing - 1,141-2, Other Services Retail Trade 612-1,26 7 Transport/Warehouse Wholesale Trade Federal Government State Government UVliVes InformaVon ConstrucVon 787-1, Financial AcVviVes Local Government Source: Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs 2
3 Thousands California: A widespread hit State Labor Markets to Nov. 15,5 15, 14,5 14, 13,5 13, Jan- 98 Dec- 99 Total Nonfarm Nov- 1 Oct- 3 Sep- 5 Aug- 7 Jul (%) Unemployment Rate Source: California Employment Development Department Nov- 1 Peak to Current (%) Inland Empire 1, Santa Rosa Oakland (MD) Stockton Orange County (MD) 1, Modesto Ventura San Francisco (MD) Los Angeles (MD) 3, San Jose Salinas San Diego 1, Bakersfield Santa Barbara Source: California Employment Development Department Why did it happen? Housing Consumers Financial Markets 3
4 Roots of the Great Recession % of GDP Net Wealth of the U.S. to Q3-1 Q1-52 Q2-56 Q3-6 Q4-64 Q1-69 Q2-73 Q3-77 Q4-81 Q1-86 Q2-9 Q3-94 Q4-98 Q1-3 Q2-7 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis % of Disposable Income BEA U.S. Personal Savings Rate to Q Q1-9 Q4-91 Q3-93 Q2-95 Q1-97 Q4-98 Q3- Q2-2 Q1-4 Q4-5 Q3-7 Q2-9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis National Housing Markets Case-Shiller US National Values to Q Index = 1 in Q Q1-87 Q1-88 Q1-89 Q1-9 Q1-91 Q1-92 Q1-93 Q1-94 Q1-95 Q1-96 Q1-97 Q1-98 Q1-99 Q1- Q1-1 Q1-2 Q1-3 Q1-4 Q1-5 Q1-6 Q1-7 Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-1 Source: Standard and Poor s 4
5 (%) National Credit Bubble Household Debt as % of Net Worth to Q3-1 Q1-65 Q1-69 Q1-73 Q1-77 Q1-81 Q1-85 Q1-89 Q1-93 Q1-97 Q1-1 Q1-5 Q1-9 Source: Federal Reserve Board (%) Consumer Debt as % of GDP to Q Q1-52 Q4-56 Q3-61 Q2-66 Q1-71 Q4-75 Q3-8 Q2-85 Q1-9 Q4-94 Q3-99 Q2-4 Q1-9 Mortgage Source: Federal Reserve Board Other Consumer Credit Financial Sector Imbalance Total Debt/GDP to Q RaEo Q1-52 Q2-57 Q3-62 Q4-67 Q1-73 Q2-78 Q3-83 Q4-88 Q1-94 Q2-99 Q3-4 Q4-9 Public Private Financial Source: Federal Reserve Board 5
6 Where do we stand now? Signs of improvement Industrial producvon growing! Signs that the improvement is tenuous Private sector employment growth slowing Consumers are going gangbusters! Index = 1 in US Industrial Production to November Source: Federal Reserve Board 6
7 More: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Thousands Change in Private Nonfarm Payrolls to November Jan- 1 Mar- 1 May- 1 Jul- 1 Source: Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs Sep- 1 Nov- 1 Thousands Change in Government Employment to November Jan- 1 Feb- 1 Federal Mar- 1 Apr- 1 May- 1 Jun- 1 Source: Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs Jul- 1 Aug- 1 Sep- 1 State and Local Oct- 1 Nov- 1 Billions ($), SA Jan- 7 Jun- 7 US Consumer Markets Nominal Retail Sales to November Nov- 7 Apr- 8 Sep- 8 Source: Census Bureau Feb- 9 Jul- 9 Dec- 9 May- 1 Oct- 1 Millions Auto and Light Truck Sales to November, SAAR Jan- 7 Jun- 7 Nov- 7 Apr- 8 Sep- 8 Feb- 9 Jul- 9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Dec- 9 May- 1 Oct- 1 7
8 National Credit Markets Cleared? Rate Bank Por]olio Problems to Q3-1 Q1-87 Q1-89 Q1-91 Q1-93 Q1-95 Q1-97 Q1-99 Q1-1 Q1-3 Q1-5 Q1-7 Q1-9 Losses Delinquencies Source: Federal Reserve Board Billions ($) 1,2 1, US Bank Excess Reserves to November Jan- 8 May- 8 Sep- 8 Jan- 9 May- 9 Sep- 9 Jan- 1 Source: Federal Reserve Board May- 1 Sep- 1 US Housing Market Sales (Millions) NAR Sales Stats to October Jan- 7 Jul- 7 Jan- 8 Jul- 8 Jan- 9 Jul- 9 Jan- 1 Jul Inventory to Sales RaEo Thousands New Single- Family Homes to October, SAAR 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Jan- 6 Aug- 6 Mar- 7 Oct- 7 May- 8 Dec- 8 Jul- 9 Feb- 1 Sep- 1 Sales Months Supply Source: NaEonal AssociaEon of Realtors Permits Source: Census Bureau Sales 8
9 How Many Underwater? as of Q2-1 CBSA Name # Mortgages NegaVve Equity Share Las Vegas- Paradise NV 449, Stockton CA 129, Vallejo- Fairfield CA 92, Phoenix- Mesa- Glendale AZ 966, Bakersfield- Delano CA 153, Riverside- San Bernardino- Ontario CA 861, Fresno CA 153, Visalia- Porterville CA 69, Sacramento- - Arden- Arcade- - Roseville CA 494, Salinas CA 61, Oakland- Fremont- Hayward CA 547, San Jose- Sunnyvale- Santa Clara CA 347, San Francisco- San Mateo- Redwood City CA 324, Source: First American CoreLogic CA Housing Sales to Q3-1 Prices (Thousands) Sales (Thousands) 2 Q1-5 Q2-5 Q3-5 Q4-5 Q1-6 Q2-6 Q3-6 Q4-6 Q1-7 Q2-7 Q3-7 Q4-7 Q1-8 Q2-8 Q3-8 Q4-8 Q1-9 Q2-9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q1-1 Q2-1 Q Median Prices Sales (SAAR) Source: DataQuick 9
10 CA Real Estate Markets California Foreclosure AcEvity to Q3-1 Number of Defaults and Foreclosures 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Q1-2 Q3-2 Q1-3 Q3-3 Q1-4 Q3-4 Q1-5 Q3-5 Q1-6 Q3-6 Q1-7 Q3-7 Q1-8 Q3-8 Q1-9 Q3-9 Q1-1 Q3-1 Source: DataQuick Defaults Foreclosures What comes next? ConVnued Slow Growth? Double- Dip? AcceleraVng Recovery? 1
11 US GDP and Unemployment Forecasts 6 4 Real GDP Growth to Q4-15 Unemployment Rate to Q Percent Percent Q1-8 Q4-8 Q3-9 Q2-1 Q1-11 Q4-11 Q3-12 Q2-13 Q1-14 Q4-14 Q3-15 Q1-98 Q3-99 Q1-1 Q3-2 Q1-4 Q3-5 Q1-7 Q3-8 Q1-1 Q3-11 Q1-13 Q3-14 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Forecast by Beacon Economics Source: Bureau of Labor StaEsEcs Forecast by Beacon Economics What about a Double-Dip? Need some sustained shock to the system There is potenval (worry scale: 1-1): Housing (3) Consumers (3) Deficit/Bond Markets (5) Only through gross negligence on the part of policymakers is this possible Policy signals deficits over the long term 11
12 National Housing Bounce Price Trough to Aug-1 (Case-Shiller) Price Trough to Aug-1 (Case-Shiller) CA-San Francisco 16.3 NY-New York 2.3 CA-San Diego 11. TX-Dallas 2.1 MN-Minneapolis 1.1 IL-Chicago 2. DC-Washington 9.8 CO-Denver 1.8 CA-Los Angeles 8. WA-Seattle 1.7 OR-Portland 6.3 GA-Atlanta.9 MA-Boston 5. FL-Miami.6 OH-Cleveland 4.8 FL-Tampa. AZ-Phoenix 2.5 NC-Charlotte. MI-Detroit 2.4 NV-Las Vegas. National Housing unbounce 1-yr Change to Nov-1 (Case-Shiller) 1-yr Change to Nov-1 (Case-Shiller) CA-San Francisco.4 TX-Dallas -4.2 DC-Washington 3.5 IL-Chicago -7.6 CA-San Diego 2.6 MI-Detroit -7.1 CA-Los Angeles 2.1 FL-Miami -3.5 MN-Minneapolis -4.4 FL-Tampa -4. MA-Boston -.8 GA-Atlanta -7.9 OH-Cleveland -4.4 NC-Charlotte -4.3 CO-Denver -2.5 NV-Las Vegas -3.5 NY-New York -1.7 OR-Portland -7. AZ-Phoenix -6.4 WA-Seattle -4.7 New Lows Source: Standard and Poor s 12
13 National Spending Fumes? Billions ($) Consumer Credit to October Jan- 6 Sep- 6 May- 7 Jan- 8 Sep- 8 May- 9 Jan- 1 Sep- 1 1,65 1,63 1,61 1,59 1,57 1,55 1,53 1,51 1,49 1,47 1,45 Revolving Non- Revolving Source: Federal Reserve Board Billions ($) Billions ($) SAAR Personal Income to October 13, 12,5 12, 11,5 11, 1,5 1, Jan- 6 Aug- 6 Mar- 7 Oct- 7 May- 8 Dec- 8 Jul- 9 Feb- 1 Sep- 1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Attack the Deficit Now? 13
14 Summary The Recession is Over Prognosis Improving Consumer weakness is fading Housing bounce is ending Forecast: Robust , weakness Tax Policy, both short and long run, is crucial Short run svmulus, long run danger Must convince bond markets of long run fiscal sanity Employment growth accelerates in 211 Real estate markets to remain weak CA Summary California has been part of the recession s epicenter Housing, exports, business investment Early employment gains have ceased Should resume in 211, but unemployment will lag Decisions now will affect economy long term Budget EducaVon, infrastructure, regulatory environment Years before recovery is complete Catching up to potenval could be 5+ years 14
15 Bay Area Forecast Employment Taxable Sales Forecast Index = 1 in Dec Total Nonfarm Employment to August Jan- Jan- 1 Jan- 2 Jan- 3 Jan- 4 Bay Area SCAG Jan- 5 Employment Jan- 6 Jan- 7 SACOG SANDAG Jan- 8 Jan- 9 Jan- 1 (%) Jan- Unemployment Rates to August Feb- 1 Mar- 2 Apr- 3 Bay Area SCAG May- 4 Jun- 5 Jul- 6 Aug- 7 SACOG SANDAG Sep- 8 Oct- 9 Source: California Employment Development Department Source: California Employment Development Department 15
16 Nonfarm Employment Dec- 1 Employment Drop from Peak to Trough (%) Increase Since Trough (%) Inland Empire 1, Santa Rosa Sacramento Vallejo East Bay (MD) Fresno Los Angeles (MD) 3, San Francisco (MD) San Jose (MSA) San Diego 1, Source: California Employment Development Department Unemployment Rate and Labor Force Dec- 1 Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate Low to Peak Change Inland Empire Fresno Sacramento San Jose Vallejo Los Angeles (MD) Oakland (MD) San Diego Santa Rosa San Francisco (MD) Source: California Employment Development Department 16
17 Taxable Sales Q2-1 Drop from Peak to Increase since LocaVon (Millions) Trough (%) Trough (%) Bay Area 26, SACOG Region 7, SCAG Region 55, SANDAG Region 1, San Francisco (MD) 7, San Jose (MSA) 7, Oakland (MD) 8, Vallejo 1, Napa Santa Rosa 1, Source: California Board of EqualizaEon Bay Area Forecast (SF, EB, and SJ) Current Level (21 Q2) Peak Level (Various) Return to Peak NF Employment 2,71 2, Q4 Taxable Sales 23,155 26, Q1 Home Prices - San Francisco (MD) 695,93 891,542 9% in 215 Q4 - East Bay (MD) 35, ,658 69% in 215 Q4 - San Jose MSA 552, ,1 98% in 215 Q4 17
18 Bay Area Summary Recovery is starvng to take hold It will strengthen going into 211 and 212 East bay and Napa/Sonoma slower than other regions Fundamentals remain intact, but in jeopardy EducaVonal opportunives Infrastructure Remains an aoracvve region for investment SF Unemployment It s Grim % 12 1 San Francisco (MD) Unemployment Rate to Dec Dec- 85 Nov- 87 Oct- 89 Sep- 91 Aug- 93 Jul- 95 Jun- 97 May- 99 Apr- 1 Mar- 3 Feb- 5 Unemployment (%) LocaVon Dec- 8 Dec- 9 Dec- 1 California Bay Regions San Francisco (MD) San Jose Oakland (MD) Other Regions San Diego Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire Source: California Employment Development Department 18
19 Payroll Employment Manufacturing Prof/Bus Leisure and Hospitality Wholesale Trade EducaVon/Health Trade/UVl Government Total NF Retail Trade Other Services InformaVon Financial AcVviiVes ConstrucVon San Francisco (MD) Employment Growth by Sector Source: California Employment Development Department % Change Year over Year SF(MD) Employment Forecast ConstrucVon Prof/Bus Financial AcVviiVes Other Services Trade/UVl Leisure and Hospitality Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Total NF EducaVon/Health InformaVon Government Manufacturing San Francisco (MD) Employment Growth by Sector % Change Year over Year 211 Forecast 21 19
20 Index = 1 in Q Q1-95 Q2-96 Q3-97 Q4-98 Q1- Manufacturing Beacon Forecast: Manufacturing Employment to Q4-15 as of Q3-1 Q2-1 Q3-2 Q4-3 Q1-5 Q2-6 Q3-7 Q4-8 Q1-1 Q2-11 Q3-12 Q4-13 Q ,632 Jobs (-2.7%) jobs lost from peak to current. - No further job losses are expected. San Francisco (MD) California San Francisco (MD) Forecast California Forecast Source: California Employment Development Department/Beacon Economics Thousands ($) 1, Housing Market Beacon Forecast: Housing SituaEon to Q4-15 as of Q2-1 Q1-95 Q4-96 Q3-98 Q2- Q1-2 Q4-3 Q3-5 Q2-7 Q1-9 Q4-1 Q3-12 Q2-14 Sales Prices Source: DataQuick/Beacon Economics Sales Forecast Prices Forecast 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Sales (Thousands) San Francisco MD: Currently Down $196,449 (-22.%) from peak in Q2-27 Peak to trough decline: $287,599 (-32.3%) by Q1-29 Prices flat to up rising over the next couple of years 2
21 (%) Residential Real Estate Percentage of Single- Family Housing Units in Default Q1-2 Q4-2 Q3-3 Q2-4 Q1-5 Q4-5 Q3-6 Q2-7 Q1-8 Q4-8 Q3-9 Q2-1 (%) Percentages of Single- Family Housing Units in Foreclosure Q1- Q4- Q3-1 Q2-2 Q1-3 Q4-3 Q3-4 Q2-5 Q1-6 Q4-6 Q3-7 Q2-8 Q1-9 Q4-9 San Francisco (MD) San Jose (MSA) San Francisco (MD) San Jose (MSA) Oakland (MD) Los Angeles (MD) Oakland (MD) Los Angeles (MD) Source: DataQuick, Department of Finance Source: DataQuick, Department of Finance Index = 1 in Q Q1-95 Finance & Insurance Beacon Forecast: Finance and Insurance Employment to Q4-15 as of Q3-1 Q2-96 Q3-97 Q4-98 Q1- Q2-1 Q3-2 Q4-3 Q1-5 Q2-6 Q3-7 Q4-8 Q1-1 Q2-11 Q3-12 Q4-13 Q1-15 Late start in SF 1,688 jobs (-15.6%) lost to date No additional job losses are expected San Francisco (MD) California San Francisco (MD) Forecast California Forecast Source: California Employment Development Department/Beacon Economics 21
22 Business & Professional Index = 1 in Q Beacon Forecast: Professional and Business Employment to Q4-15 as of Q3-1 Q1-95 Q1-96 Q1-97 Q1-98 Q1-99 Q1- Q1-1 Q1-2 Q1-3 Q1-4 Q1-5 Q1-6 Q1-7 Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-1 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 2,125 jobs lost (-9.5%) to date 9.9% total decline Currently at bottom Late start, late recovery San Francisco (MD) California San Francisco (MD) Forecast California Forecast Source: California Employment Development Department/Beacon Economics Leisure & Hospitality Index = 1 in Q Beacon Forecast: Leisure and Hospitality Employment to Q4-15 as of Q3-1 Q1-95 Q2-96 Q3-97 Q4-98 Q1- Q2-1 Q3-2 Q4-3 Q1-5 Q2-6 Q3-7 Q4-8 Q1-1 Q2-11 Q3-12 Q4-13 Q1-15 7,168 jobs (-5.6%) lost to date No additional job losses are expected. San Francisco (MD) California San Francisco (MD) Forecast California Forecast Source: California Employment Development Department/Beacon Economics 22
23 The Consumer Billions ($) San Francisco (MD) Taxable Sales Forecast to Q4-15 as of Q2-1 Q1-5 Q4-5 Q3-6 Q2-7 Q1-8 Q4-8 Q3-9 Q2-1 Q1-11 Q4-11 Q3-12 Q2-13 Q1-14 Q4-14 Q3-15 Strong driver of the recession. 19.% decline from peak to trough 13.2% decline from peak to current level Continued pressure on state and local government budgets. Taxable Sales Forecast Source: California Board of Equalization/Beacon Economics Net Affect on the Labor Market Employees (Thousands) 1,1 1,5 1, Beacon Forecast: San Francisco (MD) Employment SituaEon to Q4-15 as of Q3-1 Q1-95 Q3-96 Q1-98 Q3-99 Q1-1 Q3-2 Q1-4 Q3-5 Q1-7 Q3-8 Q1-1 Q3-11 Q1-13 Q (%) Unemployment peak: 9.6% in Q4-29. Trough to Peak: +5.9 % pts Employment trough: 914,17 in Q4-21 Peak to Trough: 86,317 jobs lost. Total Nonfarm Nonfarm Forecast Unemployment Rate Unemployment Forecast Source: California Employment Development Department/Beacon Economics 23
24 Forecast Peak to Current (%) Booom Reached In Recovery Of Peak Home Prices Marin Q1-9 Aper Q4-15 San Francisco Q1-9 Aper Q4-15 San Mateo Q1-9 Aper Q4-15 Taxable Sales Marin Q2-9 Q2-15 San Francisco Q2-9 Q2-14 San Mateo Q2-9 Aper Q4-15 Personal Income Q4-9 Q3-11 Nonfarm Employment Q2-1 Aper Q4-15 Unemployment Rate +5.7 Q4-9 Aper Q4-15 Source: Forecasts by Beacon Economics Forecast Summary Housing has booomed, but growth will be slow Unemployment Rate peaked at 9.7% in Q4-29 Employment booomed out in Q4-21 Exports and business investment will be key drivers of recovery For most aspects of the economy, recovery is 5+ years off Local budgets will be strained for some Vme Region is adaptable and recovery will be robust! 24
25 Venture Capital (%) California s Share of U.S. Venture Capital to Q3-1 Q1-95 Q3-96 Q1-98 Q3-99 Q1-1 Amount Q3-2 Q1-4 Q3-5 Deals Q1-7 Q3-8 Q1-1 Q2-1 Value of All Deals (Millions) % of Total US VC Bay Area 2, California 3,92 56 United States 6,943 Q3-1 Value of All Deals (Millions) % of Total US VC Bay Area 1,75 36 California 2,22 46 United States 4,82 Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers MoneyTree Compass Economics Providing guidance and direction. Ø Regional Analysis Ø Business & Market Analysis Ø Ports & Infrastructure Analysis Ø Economic Impact Analysis Ø Public Policy Analysis Jon@CompassEcon.com
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