The Economic Outlook. Will the real economy please stand up? March 2019
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- Marylou Thomas
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1 The Economic Outlook Will the real economy please stand up? March 2019 Christopher Thornberg, PhD Founding Partner, Beacon Economics Director, UCR SoBA Center for Economic Forecasting and Development Beacon Economics beaconecon.com
2 A Market Tantrum Beacon Economics
3 Real Estate Uncertainties Beacon Economics
4 A look back NBER says U.S. recession began December 2007 Mon Dec 1, 12:20 pm ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) The U.S. economy slipped into recession in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle dating committee announced on Monday. Beacon Economics
5 Current Headlines Miserabilism Beacon Economics 5
6 Will the Real Economy Please Stand Up? Why so glum? 2018 Growth: 3.2% with.75% fiscal stimulus after-burner Labor markets, consumer spending, business investment, wages, exports, energy, debt levels still all on steady sustainable paths Interest rates still low, inflation still constrained 2019: back to a steady pace of 2 to 2.5% growth Still a low chance of recession in next 24 months WSJ Next Recession Poll 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% It isn t the when, it s the why Beacon Economics 6
7 Will the Real Economy Please Stand Up? Brakes and Imbalances Labor shortages impacting employers Local Housing Shortages Recent market volatility / rising long term rates An overly aggressive Fed, flat yield curve Sharp growth in government deficits The federal government shutdown Global trade / security worries Political Dysfunction Little effort to deal with underinvestment in infrastructure, rising wealth inequality, healthcare cost inflation, pension and entitlement issues, etc etc etc The great disconnect between economic realities and political discourse Beacon Economics 7
8 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 2018Q1 GDP: % Year over Year Real GDP Growth (yoy) GDP Growth Consumption Goods Services Fixed investment Structures Equipment IPP Residential Inventories Trade Exports Imports Government Federal State and local Beacon Economics
9 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-96 Jul-97 Jan-99 Jul-00 Jan-02 Jul-03 Jan-05 Jul-06 Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11 Jul-12 Jan-14 Jul-15 Jan-17 Jul-18 % Growth Rate Consumer Spending Real Consumer Spending Growth (Y-o-Y) Personal Savings Rate Source: FRED Beacon Economics 9
10 03:Q1 03:Q4 04:Q3 05:Q2 06:Q1 06:Q4 07:Q3 08:Q2 09:Q1 09:Q4 10:Q3 11:Q2 12:Q1 12:Q4 13:Q3 14:Q2 15:Q1 15:Q4 16:Q3 17:Q2 18:Q Consumer Debt Loads Household Debt / DPI Ratio Financial Obligations Ratio Beacon Economics 10
11 03:Q1 03:Q4 04:Q3 05:Q2 06:Q1 06:Q4 07:Q3 08:Q2 09:Q1 09:Q4 10:Q3 11:Q2 12:Q1 12:Q4 13:Q3 14:Q2 15:Q1 15:Q4 16:Q3 17:Q2 18:Q1 Jan-95 Aug-96 Mar-98 Oct-99 May-01 Dec-02 Jul-04 Feb-06 Sep-07 Apr-09 Nov-10 Jun-12 Jan-14 Aug-15 Mar-17 Oct-18 An Auto Problem? Consumer Debt Delinquencies (90 day +) Auto / Light Truck Sales AUTO CC Beacon Economics 11
12 Industrial Production Industrial Production YoY Growth Total index 3.8 Major market groups Final Products 1.6 Consumer goods 0 Business equipment 3.8 Nonindustrial supplies 1.9 Construction 5.3 Materials 6.3 Major industry groups Manufacturing 2.9 Mining 15.3 Utilities -5.6 Source: Board of Governors Fed Reserve, BEA Beacon Economics 12
13 Source: US EIA Beacon Economics US Crude Oil Production (TB/D) Oil Production / Prices WTI Oil Prices ($/B)
14 Exports Exports of goods, Real Country Exports Gr Imports Gr Total % % China % % Canada % % Mexico % % Japan % % Germany % % Korea, South % % United Kingdom % % France % % India % % Italy % % Taiwan % % Netherlands % % Source: Board of Governors Fed Reserve, BEA Beacon Economics 14
15 Jan-93 Sep-94 May-96 Jan-98 Sep-99 May-01 Jan-03 Sep-04 May-06 Jan-08 Sep-09 May-11 Jan-13 Sep-14 May-16 Jan Q1 1996Q2 1997Q3 1998Q4 2000Q1 2001Q2 2002Q3 2003Q4 2005Q1 2006Q2 2007Q3 2008Q4 2010Q1 2011Q2 2012Q3 2013Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2017Q3 Twin Deficits Trade Deficit Net federal government saving Source: BEA Beacon Economics 15
16 Beacon Economics 16
17 The China Syndrome $200,000 $100,000 $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 United States Goods Trade with China (Millions) *As of October 2018 Value US Exports to China as % of GDP: 0.75% Exports Imports Balance Exports ($, Billions) Share Imports ($, Billions) Total 1,389 2,122 Share China % % Value China Exports to US as % of GDP: 4.0% Canada % % Mexico % % Japan % % UK % % Germany % % S. Korea % % Netherlands % % Brazil % % Hong Kong % % France % % Singapore % % Source: US Census, Wiser Beacon Economics 17
18 Year over Year % Growth Exchange Rate U.S / China Comparisons 20 Industrial Production Growth 7.2 Yuan to Dollar China US Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Board of Gov. Fed. Reserve Beacon Economics 18
19 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17 Jan-18 Sep-18 Jan-01 Dec-01 Nov-02 Oct-03 Sep-04 Aug-05 Jul-06 Jun-07 May-08 Apr-09 Mar-10 Feb-11 Jan-12 Dec-12 Nov-13 Oct-14 Sep-15 Aug-16 Jul-17 Jun-18 Labor Markets Change Non Farm Payrolls (Smoothed) Unemployment and Job Openings 4.8% 3.8% Job Opening Rate Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, JOLTS Beacon Economics 19
20 Sep-02 Jul-03 May-04 Mar-05 Jan-06 Nov-06 Sep-07 Jul-08 May-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Jul-13 May-14 Mar-15 Jan-16 Nov-16 Sep-17 Jul-18 Consequences 5 Real Wage Gains for Continuously Employed FT Workers $45,000 Real Median Income- Males 4 $40,000 3 $35,000 2 $30, $25,000-1 $20,000 $15,000 Median Average Source: Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker, Census Beacon Economics 20
21 Quality of Life Life Expectancy Infant Mortality 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% % 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Total Crime Rate in the U. S % % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% % of Population With College Diploma or Higher Beacon Economics 21
22 Quality of Life Source: Countryeconomy.com. Statista. Beacon Economics 22
23 Which Inequality? Gini Coefficients Based on Market Income Based on Income After Transfers and Taxes Real Average Net Worth by Bracket < 25 $(1) $0 $(12) 0% 0% 0% $43 $60 $45 3% 3% 2% $166 $227 $204 12% 11% 7% $422 $612 $659 18% 17% 14% $2,317 $3,748 $5,336 67% 70% 77% Top 1% $10,407 $17,772 $26,645 30% 33% 39% Beacon Economics
24 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over Workforce Growth US Labor Force Growth (Smoothed) Population by Age (Millions) -1 Source: BLS Beacon Economics 24
25 A Demographic Collapse US Population Forecast Current ,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, New Estimates: Debt and Deficit Total Deficit Net Debt % GDP Source: DOF, ACS Beacon Economics 25
26 The Cure for Secular Stagnation Beacon Economics 26
27 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-03 Dec-03 Nov-04 Oct-05 Sep-06 Aug-07 Jul-08 Jun-09 May-10 Apr-11 Mar-12 Feb-13 Jan-14 Dec-14 Nov-15 Oct-16 Sep-17 Aug-18 % Growth Housing Markets: Slightly Slowing Home Sales Median Price YoY Growth Source: FRED Beacon Economics 27
28 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Does this look the same? Then Now Sales SAAR Months Supply Sales SAAR Months Supply Beacon Economics
29 Jan-92 Jul-93 Jan-95 Jul-96 Jan-98 Jul-99 Jan-01 Jul-02 Jan-04 Jul-05 Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11 Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-16 Jul-17 Jan-19 Builder Confidence and Market Stability 12.0 Months Supply Existing Homes (NAR) Source: Wells Fargo Beacon Economics 29
30 Jan-90 Nov-91 Sep-93 Jul-95 May-97 Mar-99 Jan-01 Nov-02 Sep-04 Jul-06 May-08 Mar-10 Jan-12 Nov-13 Sep-15 Jul Pace of Construction Housing Starts SAAR Housing Starts per New Household Beacon Economics 30
31 Q1-85 Q4-86 Q3-88 Q2-90 Q1-92 Q4-93 Q3-95 Q2-97 Q1-99 Q4-00 Q3-02 Q2-04 Q1-06 Q4-07 Q3-09 Q2-11 Q1-13 Q4-14 Q3-16 Q2-18 Q1-85 Q1-87 Q1-89 Q1-91 Q1-93 Q1-95 Q1-97 Q1-99 Q1-01 Q1-03 Q1-05 Q1-07 Q1-09 Q1-11 Q1-13 Q1-15 Q1-17 Vacancy Rates 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Vacant Units Ownership Rates 3.5% % % For Sale / Rent Held Off Market Beacon Economics
32 03:Q1 03:Q4 04:Q3 05:Q2 06:Q1 06:Q4 07:Q3 08:Q2 09:Q1 09:Q4 10:Q3 11:Q2 12:Q1 12:Q4 13:Q3 14:Q2 15:Q1 15:Q4 16:Q3 17:Q2 18:Q1 99:Q2 00:Q2 01:Q2 02:Q2 03:Q2 04:Q2 05:Q2 06:Q2 07:Q2 08:Q2 09:Q2 10:Q2 11:Q2 12:Q2 13:Q2 14:Q2 15:Q2 16:Q2 17:Q2 18:Q2 Credit Conditions Delinquencies (90 day +) Mortgage Origination by Credit Score MORTGAGE Median 25th percentile 10th percentile Source: CensusORi, NY Fed Beacon Economics 32
33 Rising Rates Mortgage Rates (30 Year Fixed) Mortgage Rates (30 Year Fixed) Source: Freddie Mac Why higher? Economic Growth Federal Borrowing Strong Equity Market Not Inflation Fed Policy Lack of Capital Beacon Economics 33
34 Value ($, Millions) Construction Spending National 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 Value of Nonresidential Construction Oct to Oct Value by Type (Nonresidential) October 2018 Value (Millions) Year over Year % Growth Total 459, % Commercial 84, % Manufacturing 66, % Office 66, % Health Care 32, % Communication 23, % Source: Census Beacon Economics 34
35 6/1/05 6/1/06 6/1/07 6/1/08 6/1/09 6/1/10 6/1/11 6/1/12 6/1/13 6/1/14 6/1/15 6/1/16 6/1/17 6/1/ National Trends in Real Estate 25.0% 20.0% Bank Debt: Y-o-Y Growth 12 Loan Delinquencies: All Commercial Banks 15.0% % 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% % -15.0% -20.0% % C&I Comm RE Residential Commercial Consumer Source: Real Capital Analytics Beacon Economics 35
36 2013:04: :01: :02: :03: :04: :01: :02: :03: :04: :01: :02: :03: :04: :01: :02: :03: :04: :01: :02: :03: :04:00 Lending Markets? SLOS: Tightening Standards Increasing Demand Development Multifamiy Development Multifamiy Senior Loan Officer Survey: Net Percent of Respondents saying yes Beacon Economics
37 National Trends in Real Estate US Capital Trends Oct 2018 Transacti on Volume (Billions) Year over Year % Change Volume Prices Cap Rate Total $ % 6.4% Industrial $ % 6.1% 6.4% Apartme nt $ % 9.6% 5.5% Office $ % 7.3% 6.6% Retail $ % 2.4% 6.5% Hotel $ % 5.4% 8.6% Source: Real Capital Analytics Beacon Economics 37
38 Inflation 3.0 Core Inflation 14.0 M2 Growth (Y-o-Y) Beacon Economics
39 Jan-57 Oct-60 Jul-64 Apr-68 Jan-72 Oct-75 Jul-79 Apr-83 Jan-87 Oct-90 Jul-94 Apr-98 Jan-02 Oct-05 Jul-09 Apr-13 Inflation Risks? 15.0% 13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% -1.0% -3.0% -5.0% Growth in Bank Loans Unemployment and Inflation 0.0 Beacon Economics 39
40 Federal Reserve Policy Federal Funds Rate Year 3 Month Spread Source: Board of Governors Fed Reserve, Federal Reserve St Louis Beacon Economics 40
41 Beacon Economics
42 Source: Business Insider/Census Bureau Beacon Economics 42
43 California fact versus fiction Beacon Economics 43
44 /1/88 2/1/90 3/1/92 4/1/94 5/1/96 6/1/98 7/1/00 8/1/02 9/1/04 10/1/06 11/1/08 12/1/10 1/1/13 2/1/15 3/1/17 Booms and Busts 10.0% Growth in Real Output 14.0 US Unemployment 8.0% % 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% United States California CA US Beacon Economics
45 State Economic Performance Gross State Product Q Year 5 Year Washington 4.3% 3.7% California 3.5% 3.7% Utah 3.7% 3.4% Colorado 4.5% 3.4% Oregon 3.4% 2.9% Florida 2.3% 2.8% Texas 4.2% 2.8% Idaho 3.2% 2.8% Georgia 2.5% 2.8% Nevada 4.0% 2.7% South Carolina 2.0% 2.5% Arizona 4.2% 2.5% Rk State 5 Year Payroll Employment # Ann Gr Share US 1 Nevada % 1.7% 2 Utah % 1.7% 3 Florida % 9.8% 4 Oregon % 2.0% 5 Idaho % 0.7% 6 Colorado % 2.6% 7 Washington % 3.3% 8 California % 16.3% 9 Georgia % 4.3% 10 South Carolina % 1.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis Beacon Economics 45
46 1981:Q1 1982:Q4 1984:Q3 1986:Q2 1988:Q1 1989:Q4 1991:Q3 1993:Q2 1995:Q1 1996:Q4 1998:Q3 2000:Q2 2002:Q1 2003:Q4 2005:Q3 2007:Q2 2009:Q1 2010:Q4 2012:Q3 2014:Q2 2016:Q1 2005:Q1 2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 2012:Q1 2013:Q1 2014:Q1 2015:Q1 2016:Q1 2017:Q1 2018:Q1 California Economic Engine 14.5% California Share National Personal Income 15.0% California Share US GDP 14.0% 14.5% 13.5% 14.0% 13.0% 12.5% 12.0% 13.5% 13.0% 11.5% 12.5% 11.0% 12.0% Beacon Economics 46
47 Myth Busting California's economy recently grew to become the world's fifth-largest economy if it were its own country. Sounds like great news, but that wealth mostly benefits the very rich in the tech sector. "Almost all the income growth and high-end job growth took place in Silicon Valley, Joel Kotkin, professor of Urban Studies at Chapman University May 18, 2018 Share New FT Employees Tot Ch < 50k Ch k Ch 100k+ County Total 12, % Coast SC 5, % Bay 2, % Balance 4, % Inland SC 1, % North Inland 1, % North Coast % Central Coast % Central Valley % Beacon Economics 47
48 Median Income ($) Households Median Household Income Income Brackets OC HH Income 2017 Total HH s (000 s) 3-Year Change Share LA IE OC Less Than 50K % K % Inland Empire Orange County Los Angeles California 100K or More % Source: American Community Survey Beacon Economics 48
49 Revenue ($, SA, Billions) Sales Tax Revenue Total Sales Tax Revenue, Orange County Category Q Sales Tax (Millions) Year over Year Change Total % Autos & Transportation % Building & Construction % Restaurants & Hotels % Business & Industry % Food & Drugs % General Consumer Goods % Fuel & Service Stations % Source: HDL Beacon Economics 49
50 Q1-95 Q2-96 Q3-97 Q4-98 Q1-00 Q2-01 Q3-02 Q4-03 Q1-05 Q2-06 Q3-07 Q4-08 Q1-10 Q2-11 Q3-12 Q4-13 Q1-15 Q2-16 Q3-17 State NR Construction California NR Permits (Nom $) Q3-18 Alts 0.3% 4.5% 3,150,029 Retail 17.8% 14.4% 1,131,900 Office 23.3% -8.5% 691,167 Other -8.3% -1.1% 662,133 Hotel 54.5% 30.0% 517, Industrial 10.2% 46.8% 478,486 Garage 13.3% 1.8% 433,022 Beacon Economics
51 Permit Value ($, Millions) Nonresidential Real Estate Permits O.C. Nonresidential Permits Property 2017 (Millions) 2018 (Millions) IE LA OC IE LA OC 2000 Hotel $73.8 $89.0 $169.6 $65.3 $213.3 $ Industrial $917.2 $132.0 $74.0 $945.3 $91.5 $24.3 Office $82.7 $497.6 $81.2 $123.7 $434.7 $257.6 Non Res Alterations Commercial Retail $521.6 $688.1 $213.8 $431.0 $762.3 $194.9 Source: CIRB Beacon Economics 51
52 Nonresidential Rents & Vacancies Property Type Cost of Rent, Q Year over Year Change Los Angeles Inland Empire Orange County Los Angeles Inland Empire Orange County Warehouse $7.8 $5.6 $ % 4.1% 2.2% Office $38.9 $22.9 $ % 1.9% 4.0% Retail $33.4 $23.0 $ % 1.5% 1.2% Flex/R&D $12.8 $8.6 $ % 2.9% 2.0% Property Type Vacancy Rate, Q Year over Year Change Los Angeles Inland Empire Orange County Los Angeles Inland Empire Orange County Warehouse 4.7% 8.5% 6.6% 0 pp 2.2 pp 0.4 pp Office 14.5% 16.8% 15.9% -0.1 pp -0.2 pp 0.6 pp Retail 6.6% 9.2% 5.2% 0.4 pp -0.4 pp 0.1 pp Flex/R&D 2.9% 5.1% 4.2% 0.3 pp -0.2 pp -0.1 pp Source: CIRB Beacon Economics 52
53 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 State Job Growth 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% California Non Farm Payroll Growth (yoy) Jan-19 San Francisco 1,167, % 3.8% Fresno MSA 360, % 3.2% Santa Barbara MSA 187, % 2.8% Sacramento 1,014, % 2.7% San Jose 1,139, % 2.4% Bakersfield MSA 270, % 2.3% Inland Empire 1,512, % 1.7% San Diego 1,495, % 1.5% East Bay 1,187, % 1.3% Stockton 242, % 1.2% Santa Rosa MSA 209, % 1.1% Orange County 1,657, % 1.0% Ventura 310, % 0.8% Los Angeles 4,529, % 0.7% Modesto MSA 179, % 0.7% Beacon Economics
54 Employment (000 s, SA) Employment Comparisons Orange County Total Nonfarm Industry Jan (000 s) % Change CA % Change Total Nonfarm 1, Admin Support Logistics Education/Health Prof, Sci &Tech Hospitality Wholesale Trade Government Retail Trade Information Other Scvs Manufacturing Construction Financial Source: California EDD Beacon Economics 54
55 California Labor Markets California Unemployment Rate Source: U.S. Census Beacon Economics 55
56 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 California Labor Markets 1.50% Net Migration as a % of Pop 1.6% California Labor Force Growth (LR) 1.30% 1.10% 0.90% 0.70% 0.50% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.30% 0.6% 0.10% 0.4% -0.10% -0.30% -0.50% 0.2% 0.0% Source: U.S. Census Beacon Economics 56
57 Q1-99 Q3-00 Q1-02 Q3-03 Q1-05 Q3-06 Q1-08 Q3-09 Q1-11 Q3-12 Q1-14 Q3-15 Q1-17 The Housing Exodus California Home Prices Relative to US 160.0% % 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Beacon Economics
58 Q1-95 Q1-96 Q1-97 Q1-98 Q1-99 Q1-00 Q1-01 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18 New Housing Supply New Home Permits How Much Housing Needed? Housing Needed to maintain 2% State Job Growth Method 1 Total 722,022 Per Year 206,674 Current 111,185 Shortfall 100, Single-family Multi-family Method 2 Total 911,001 Per Year 263,667 Current 111,185 Shortfall 157,482 Source: CIRB Beacon Economics 58
59 How Much of a Backlog? Units Vacancy Rk Gr% Rk Ch Texas 10, % 28 34% 4 2,776 Florida 9, % 6 29% 6 2,139 California 14, % 52 16% 21 1,963 N Carolina 4, % 17 31% 8 1,099 Georgia 4, % 34 30% 9 1,001 Arizona 2, % 7 37% Washington 3, % 44 27% New York 8, % 39 8% Virginia 3, % 46 21% Colorado 2, % 35 32% Backlog Avg Growth 291 Avg Vacancy 676 Total 967 High Growth 1,408 Avg Vacancy 676 Total 2,084 Texas Growth 1,849 Avg Vacancy 676 Total 2,525 Beacon Economics
60 Housing Units/Population California = 2 nd Lowest Housing Unit to Population Ratio Housing Units per Capita (2017) - Top 5 and Bottom 5 States) Maine (1) 0.54 Vermont (2) North Dakota (3) West Virginia (4) Montana (5) New Jersey (46) Texas (47) Hawaii (48) California (49) US Average: Utah (50) - In 2017, California ranked 49 th (2 nd Lowest) in housing units to population ratio. - The ranking has been unchanged for several years. - But the gap between California and Utah has narrowed. - At current trajectory, California would overtake Utah to becoming the state with the lowest housing units per capita in the next decade. Note: Ranking denoted in parenthesis. Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau Beacon Economics
61 Children Living with Parents by Age Group (Indexed to 2008 Values) The Percentage of Adult Children Living With Their Parents Are Rising Rapidly Percent of Adults by Age Group Living With Parents - California 35% 30% 25% 23% 25% 24% 26% 28% 28% 30% 30% 31% 33% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 13% 14% 14% 15% 15% 16% 17% 11% 12% 12% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years Note: Children include biological, adopted, or step children. Source: Beacon Economics tabulation of data from the ACS PUMS Beacon Economics
62 Q1-95 Q2-96 Q3-97 Q4-98 Q1-00 Q2-01 Q3-02 Q4-03 Q1-05 Q2-06 Q3-07 Q4-08 Q1-10 Q2-11 Q3-12 Q4-13 Q1-15 Q2-16 Q3-17 Housing = Economic Development Residential Permits LA County 2% Job Growth 90,000 Jobs 1.5 Jobs / HH 60,000 24,400 Single Famile Multi-Family Beacon Economics
63 (Index at Dec-03 = 100, SA & MA) (%, SA & MA) Labor Force and Unemployment Labor Force Unemployment Rate Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange County Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange County Source: California EDD Beacon Economics 63
64 Q1-95 Q1-96 Q1-97 Q1-98 Q1-99 Q1-00 Q1-01 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18 Residential Permitting Region Number of Permits 2018 Multi Family Single Family Year over Year Growth Multi Family Single Family IE Housing Permits Inland Empire 2,842 10, % 4.1% San Diego 6,190 3, % -14.9% Los Angeles 16,633 5, % 2.9% Orange County 4,233 3, % -22.9% RV SF SB SF RV MF SBMF Source: CIRB Beacon Economics
65 Median Home Prices ($, Thousands) Residential Real Estate - Cost of Housing 900 Median Home Prices Orange County Home Sales Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange County Source DataQuick, REIS Beacon Economics 65
66 The Real OC: Young, Rich, and Smart Years in Home Homeowner Median Income Share of Homeowners Median Age Educational Attainment Less than 5 Years 5 to 9 Years 10 Years or More Less than 5 years $139, % 36 5 to 9 years $131, % years or more $120, % 53 All Owners $126, % 46 > High School 4.0% 6.8% 7.9% High School 7.3% 8.3% 13.6% Some College 22.4% 25.1% 30.4% Bachelor s 38.1% 33.6% 27.9% Grad/Prof. 28.2% 26.2% 20.4% Source: ACS/PUMS Beacon Economics 66
67 Number of Permits Issued Residential Real Estate Permits Orange County Residential Permits Region Number of Permits 2018 Multi Family Single Family Year over Year Growth Multi Family Single Family Inland Empire 2,842 10, % 4.1% San Diego 6,190 3, % -14.9% Los Angeles 16,633 5, % 2.9% 0 Multifamily Single-family Orange County 4,233 3, % -22.9% Source: CIRB Beacon Economics 67
68 Cost of Rent ($) Residential Real Estate - Cost of Housing Location Rent Q4-18 Vac. Q Year Chg 5 Year Chg Rent Vac. Rent Vac Apartment Cost of Rent 1500 LA $ 2, % 6.2% % IE $ 1, % 4.4% % OC $ 1, % 3.5% % 1.0 Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange County Source DataQuick, REIS Beacon Economics 68
69 6/1/04 3/1/05 12/1/05 9/1/06 6/1/07 3/1/08 12/1/08 9/1/09 6/1/10 3/1/11 12/1/11 9/1/12 6/1/13 3/1/14 12/1/14 9/1/15 6/1/16 3/1/17 12/1/17 The Upside of Labor Shortages Numbe r (Mil) Median Income Change Unemp Change Total , % 5.5% -3.0% No High School , % 8.2% -3.7% High School , % 7.0% -4.0% Median Wage Growth West VS US Some College , % 5.5% -3.4% Bachelor plus , % 3.6% -1.6% Beacon Economics 69
70 Median Rent (% of Income) Don t Just Focus on Affordable Rentals Median Rent as % of Income 2005 to 2017 Inland Empire Orange County Los Angeles San Diego Share Households > 30% Income Renter Ch Fresno 54.8% 57.5% 2.7% Los Angeles 57.0% 55.4% -1.6% San Bernardino 54.7% 55.4% 0.7% Riverside 58.8% 54.8% -4.0% San Diego 53.7% 54.7% 1.0% Orange 55.5% 54.1% -1.4% Sacramento 52.9% 52.1% -0.9% Alameda 50.8% 47.2% -3.6% Santa Clara 47.2% 46.2% -1.1% San Francisco 42.8% 36.8% -6.0% Beacon Economics 70
71 The Big Picture Positives: It will be a good year Negatives: Problems Growing GDP Growth Outlook for 2019: 2%+ Labor shortages will be an issue Labor markets to remain tight Local housing supply tightening Rising wages to put pressure on profits The Inverted Yield Curve? Exports, business investment continue Equity markets behaving oddly to grow Federal deficit widening sharply Inflation to remain constrained Interest Rates Still Low Bank lending still constrained Lending constrained, but commercial Political uncertainty to dominate markets steady headlines Debt Levels still safe Critical Policy Issues Remain OC: more to fear from housing Undiscussed shortages than housing fundamentals Miserabilism warping our sense or reality Beacon Economics 71
72 Thank You
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