Atlanta Regional Commission Link. Overview of the Greater Washington Region: Trends and Challenges
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1 Atlanta Regional Commission Link Overview of the Greater Washington Region: Trends and Challenges Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University April 19, 212 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
2 The Washington Metropolitan Area Is Different It has the 4 th largest economy but only ranks 7 th in number of residents and is 2 nd in the square footage of office space. ($ Bil , Largest Metro Areas 21 GRP Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
3 % Largest Metro Areas GRP Percent Change 27-1 Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Thousands Population Growth by Decade Washington MSA s 1s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s 7s 8s 9s s Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 1s 3 25 Population in the Washington MSA By Sub-State Area, Northern VA 2 15 Suburban MD 1 5 D.C. Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis Growth in Jobs, s District of Columbia 394 Suburban Maryland 83 Northern Virginia Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 5 4 Changing Job Patterns Washington Metro Area, (Percent Share of Total) SERVICES 3 2 FEDERAL 1 Share of Washington Area Economy % of GRP 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% Northern Virginia Suburban MD D.C. 2% 15% 1% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 How Has the Washington Area Economy Performed Through This Business Cycle? US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
7 1,s 16 Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change Washington MSA s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Dec Oct Aug Jun Apr Source: BLS March 212 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: Washington + 32, Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: Washington + 36, Source: BLS March 212 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Washington MSA Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Total = 32, Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Washington MSA Source: BLS March 212 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Total = 36, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 s Annual Data Annual Job Change District of Columbia Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Apr Source: BLS March 212 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Month over Year Jun Aug Oct Dec Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec s Annual Data Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Apr Jun Source: BLS March 212 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Month over Year Aug Oct Dec Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11 s Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Apr Source: BLS March 212 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Month over Year Jun Aug Oct Dec Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Unemployment Rate DC 8.7 U.S. 6. SMD 5.8 MSA NVA 2 Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
12 % Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate ruary 212 US 8.7 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted What Explains the Region s Differential Regional Growth Pattern and What are the Economy s Vulnerabilities? GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12
13 Federal Spending Trends in DC, Maryland and Virginia,2-21 (in billions of dollars) Area 2 21 %Change % Total ** United States $1,637.2 $3, District of Columbia Maryland Virginia Total Area $136. $ Source: Consolidated Federal Funds Report, 21 ** state population as a percent of US Total Federal and DOD Spending in DC, Maryland and Virginia, 21 (in billions of dollars) Area Total $s DOD $s % Total % DOD United States $3,276.4 $ District of Columbia Maryland Virginia Total Area $294.3 $ Source: Consolidated Federal Funds Report, 21 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13
14 The Importance of DOD Spending in the Commonwealth of Virginia, 28 (in billions of 28 $s) Source GSP* Personal Earnings Jobs Direct Payroll $22.4 $ ,941 Contracting $33.6 $ ,258 Construction $1.4 $1.1 25,786 Totals $57.4 $ ,985 % of State Revenues Expenditures Net Benefit Fiscal Impacts** $1, $ $1,96.4 *gross state product *in millions of dollars FEDERAL SPENDING WASHINGTON MSA TOTAL & PROCUREMENT $ Billions Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report GMU Center for Regional Analysis 14
15 $ Billions 9 Federal Spending By Type Procurement Wages & Salaries 1 $ Billions Federal Procurement Washington Metro Area TOTAL = $862 Billion < 8-9 = $92 B > > > < 91- = $28 B > < 1 1 = $562 B > Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report GMU Center for Regional Analysis 15
16 $ Billions Federal Procurement Top 1 States VA CA TX MD DC PA FL MA NY GA Source: Census: Consolidated Federal Funds Reports, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Eisenhower Kennedy Johnson Federal Employment Washington Metro Area + 8 Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush Obama Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 16
17 $ Billions Federal Wages & Salaries Top 1 States TX CA DC VA GA NC MD NY FL WA Source: Census: Consolidated Federal Funds Reports, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Annual Data Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Source: BLS March 212 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 211 = 383,6 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 17
18 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Other 1.5% Health/Ed. 4.5% Assn 1.8% Int l 3.5% What is the Near-Term Outlook of the Washington Area Economy? GMU Center for Regional Analysis 18
19 % Economic Outlook (GRP) 215 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis % GDP/GRP Washington U.S Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19
20 215 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 14. % Other Federal 9.5 % Local Serving Activities 34.2% Total Federal 36.3% Fed Wages & Salaries 9.4 % Procurement 17.4% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Other 1.5% Health/Ed. 6. % Hosp. 2.5% Assn 2. % What is the Long-Term Outlook of the Washington Area Economy? GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
21 Gross Regional Product Forecasts: Washington Metropolitan Area and Peer Metropolitan Areas (in billions of 2$s) Metro Area Change % Change New York $1,45. $1,489.2 $ % Los Angeles Chicago Washington Dallas-FW Atlanta Source: NPA Data Services, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Washington MSA and Peers Job-to-Population Ratios, Metro Area New York Los Angeles.6.66 Chicago.6.64 Washington Dallas/FW Atlanta GMU Center for Regional Analysis 21
22 Washington MSA and Peers Percent of GRP* Lost To/Or Gained from Commuting, Metro Area GRP Value** New York $3.2 Los Angeles $27.3 Chicago $2.9 Washington $59.8 Dallas-FW $2.4 Atlanta $3.7 * Net of in and out commuting ** in billions of 2 $s (direct impact) 11 Washington Metropolitan Area Economic Growth: Standard Forecast GRP in billions of 21 $ Potential GRP Gain* Lost to Inter-regional Commuting $75 B $122 Billion * Non-resident dependency equivalent to projected large metro area average GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22
23 The Washington area economy could be larger than projected if it built on its competitive advantages If the Washington area economy fully developed its private sector to compete with its peer metropolitan areas by building on its highvalue added and fast growing professional and business service sectors. An additional $33 billion could be added to the Washington area s GRP by 23 with 48, additional jobs. Workforce Development Issues All local jurisdictions will need a greater number of workers than can be generated from within the existing population; The changing skills requirements of future jobs will compound the magnitude of the shortage of workers needed to fill future local jobs; Upskilling the existing workforce and increasing labor force participation at all ages; and, Increasing high school graduation rates and retaining and redeploying older workers. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 23
24 Revised Washington Metropolitan Area Growth Potential Summary: (in billions of 21 $s,jobs in thousands) Indicator Change GRP Growth $425 b $ % Net Job Growth 3, , ,53.9/ 27.8% Replacement Job Growth 1, % HH Growth 2,68.1 2, / 26.8% Washington Metropolitan Area: Major Sources of Workforce Demand Occupation Total Openings % of Total % Change Sales Occupations 163, Office Admin Support 158, Business and Financial 146, Management Occupations 123, Computer, Math and Sci 11, Food Prep & Serving 12, Totals 84, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 24
25 Washington Metropolitan Area: Major Sources of Net New Jobs Occupation Net New % of Total % Change Business and Financial 79, Computer, Math and Sci 68, Sales & Related Occup. 5, Office Admin Support 48, Management Occupations 45, Health Care (all) 43, Education & Training 35, Totals 372, Housing Policy Issues Local jurisdictions are planning for an insufficient amount of housing to accommodate future workers; More housing is needed closer to jobs; There is a need for more multi-family housing and more affordable owner and renter housing units; Local government imposed costs are a major source of increasing housing prices; and, A lack of housing supply across the price spectrum will threaten the area s economic vitality and increase traffic congestion. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 25
26 Demand by Housing Type and Sub-state Region Comparing Current and Forecasted Units Current* Forecast SF MF SF MF District of Columbia 39% 61% 8% 92% Suburban Maryland 7% 3% 4% 6% Northern Virginia 72% 28% 47% 53% Washington REGION 67% 33% 39% 61% *From the 29 American Community Survey Comparing Prices of Current and Forecasted Units Owner-Occupied Units Washington Region Current $4-599K 18% $6K+ 15% <$2K 28% Needed for New Workers $4-599K 26% $6K+ 5% <$2K 25% $2-399K 39% Source: Jan-Aug 211 Sales, MRIS $2-399K 44% 42,3 total owneroccupied units Note: assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work GMU Center for Regional Analysis 26
27 Comparing Rents of Current and Forecasted Units Renter-Occupied Units Washington Region Current $225+ 9% Needed for New Workers $ % $225+ 1% $ % $ % <$125 46% $ % <$125 54% Source: 29 ACS 329,2 total renteroccupied units Note: assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Key Development Challenges for the Washington Region Shortage of workers to fill the region s projected job growth; Growing dependency on non-resident workforce; Shortages of housing in all jurisdictions to house the future workforce; Lack of long-term regional solutions and implementation of public sector investment to support the growth and development of the Washington area economy; Need for local and regional leadership GMU Center for Regional Analysis 27
28 cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 28
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