Hobart and Wm. Smith Colleges. The Economy of the Washington Metropolitan Area: Its Performance and What Makes It Different
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1 Hobart and Wm. Smith Colleges The Economy of the Washington Metropolitan Area: Its Performance and What Makes It Different Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University November 12, 212 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
2 The Washington Metropolitan Area Is Different It has the 4 th largest economy but only ranks 7 th in number of residents and is 2 nd in the square footage of office space. ($ Bil , Largest Metro Areas 21 GRP Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
3 % Largest Metro Areas GRP Percent Change 27-1 Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Thousands Population Growth by Decade Washington MSA s 1s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s 7s 8s 9s s Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 1s 3 25 Population in the Washington MSA By Sub-State Area, Northern VA 2 15 Suburban MD 1 5 D.C. Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis Growth in Jobs, s District of Columbia 394 Suburban yland 83 Northern Virginia Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 5 4 Changing Job Patterns Washington Metro Area, (Percent Share of Total) SERVICES 3 2 FEDERAL 1 Share of Washington Area Economy % of GRP 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% Northern Virginia Suburban MD D.C. 2% 15% 1% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 How Has the Washington Area Economy Performed Through This Business Cycle? US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
7 1,s 16 Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis WASHINGTON Phoenix Miami Houston Los Angeles Atlanta Philadelphia Minneapolis Dallas-FW Seattle New York Chicago Boston SF-Oakland Detroit Metro Comparisons Job Change Largest Metro Areas (s) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 Annual Data (s) Annual Job Change Washington MSA Dec Annual Month over Year Dec Dec (s) Largest Job kets Job Change Apr 9 Apr 1 Washington + 5, Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 (s) Largest Job kets Job Change May 9 May 1 Washington + 13,2 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Largest Job kets Job Change 9 1 Washington + 15, Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 (s) Largest Job kets Job Change Washington + 11,3 Source: BLS ch 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Largest Job kets Job Change: Washington + 32, Source: BLS ch 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11 New York Houston Los Angeles Dallas Chicago Seattle SF-Oakland Phoenix Boston WASHINGTON Detroit Minneapolis Atlanta Philadelphia Miami Metro Comparisons Job Change () 15 Largest Metro Areas (s) (s) Largest Job kets Job Change: Washington + 41, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
12 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Washington MSA (s) Total = 41, (s) Annual Data Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Tot 211 = 688,7 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12
13 (s) Annual Data Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Nov Jul May Jan Tot 211 = 383,6 Annual Job Change District of Columbia (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Dec Dec Dec GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13
14 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector District of Columbia (s) Total 8, Annual Job Change Suburban yland (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Dec Dec Dec GMU Center for Regional Analysis 14
15 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Suburban yland (s) Total 7, Annual Job Change Northern Virginia (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Dec Dec Dec GMU Center for Regional Analysis 15
16 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Northern Virginia (s) Total 28, Unemployment Rate DC 7.8 U.S. 5.6 SMD 5.3 MSA NVA 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 16
17 % Largest Job kets Ranked by Unemployment Rate US 7.8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) What Explains the Region s Differential Regional Growth Pattern and What are the Economy s Vulnerabilities? GMU Center for Regional Analysis 17
18 Federal Spending Trends in DC, yland and Virginia,2-21 (in billions of dollars) Area 2 21 %Change % Total ** United States $1,637.2 $3, District of Columbia yland Virginia Total Area $136. $ Source: Consolidated Federal Funds Report, 21 ** state population as a percent of US Total Federal and DOD Spending in DC, yland and Virginia, 21 (in billions of dollars) Area Total $s DOD $s % Total % DOD United States $3,276.4 $ District of Columbia yland Virginia Total Area $294.3 $ Source: Consolidated Federal Funds Report, 21 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 18
19 FEDERAL SPENDING WASHINGTON MSA TOTAL & PROCUREMENT $ Billions Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report $ Billions Federal Spending By Type Procurement Wages & Salaries GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19
20 $ Billions Federal Procurement Washington Metro Area TOTAL = $862 Billion < 8-9 = $92 B > > > < 91- = $28 B > < 1 1 = $562 B > Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report $ Billions Federal Procurement Top 1 States VA CA TX MD DC PA FL MA NY GA Source: Census: Consolidated Federal Funds Reports, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
21 s Eisenhower Kennedy Johnson Federal Employment Washington Metro Area + 74 Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush Obama $ Billions Federal Wages & Salaries Top 1 States TX CA DC VA GA NC MD NY FL WA Source: Census: Consolidated Federal Funds Reports, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 21
22 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Other 1.5% Health/Ed. 4.5% Assn 1.8% Int l 3.5% What is the Near-Term Outlook of the Washington Area Economy? GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22
23 The Employment Impact the of Budget Control Act of 211 on the yland-dc-virginia Region State Job Losses* Job Losses* Total Job* DoD Cuts Non-DoD Cuts Losses yland 39,395 75,4 114,795 District of Columbia 15, , ,47 Virginia 136,191 71,38 27,571 Totals 19, ,18 449,773 % U.S. job losses *direct, indirect and induced job losses resulting from BCA-mandated federal spending reductions in FY 213; of the direct job losses totaling 161,161, an estimated 65,189 workers would be federal employees (4.4%) and 95,972 (59.5%) workers would be contractors, suppliers and vendors. Source: The Economic Impact of the Budget Control Act of 211 on DOD and Non-DOD Agencies, Stephen S. Fuller, July 17, 212. Growth Projections for Federal Spending and GRP: (in billions of 21 dollars, annual % change) Year Federal $s WMSA GRP 21 $169. $ % 2.6% % 2.7% 213.% 2.9% % 3.3% % 3.2% 215 $178.5 $491.2 Change 5.6% 15.6% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 23
24 % Economic Outlook (GRP) 216 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Employment Change by Sub-state Region (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36, Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, based on 212 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 5/1/212 NOTE: 211 Total is the sum of subregions and does not agree with the 13, 212 published MSA total. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 24
25 GDP/GRP % Washington U.S Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 215 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 14. % Other Federal 9.5 % Local Serving Activities 34.2% Total Federal 36.3% Fed Wages & Salaries 9.4 % Procurement 17.4% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Other 1.5% Health/Ed. 6. % Hosp. 2.5% Assn 2. % GMU Center for Regional Analysis 25
26 cra.gmu.edu GMU/Cardinal Bank 21 st Annual Economic Forecasting Conference McLean Hilton, Tysons Corner January 11, 213 Revised Washington Metropolitan Area Growth Potential Summary: (in billions of 21 $s,jobs in thousands) Indicator Change GRP Growth $425 b $ % Net Job Growth 3, ,842.7 Replacement Job Growth HH Growth 2,68.1 2, ,53.9/ 27.8% 1, % 554.2/ 26.8% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 26
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Metropolitan Area Statistics (4Q 2012)
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