Road Map for the Future

Transcription

1 The Rockville Summit Road Map for the Future The City of Rockville, Maryland Current Economic Conditions And Future Directions Stephen S. Fuller, PhD The Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University October 18, 2011

2 Research Objectives Map Rockville s Current and Future Economy Examine Recent Demographic Trends Analyze the City s Economic Base Identify Future Economic Directions Outline Challenges To City s Economic Future

3 The Tale of Two Cities The Residentially Based Economy The Business Based Economy

4 Residential Trends: Characteristics % Change Population 44,835 61, Households 15,660 23, Median Age Average HH Size Median HH Income $52,073 $93,

5 Population Diversity and Education Characteristics % Change Race/Ethnicity White 35,491 36, African American 3,699 5, Asian 4,394 12, Hispanic or Latino 3,863 8, Educational Attainment Bachelor s degree 32.8% Bachelor s degree %

6 Income Growth and Market Capacity Characteristics Number HH Income HHs Moving In Since ,283 $99,551 HHs From Before ,403 $85,213 Income Differential $14,338 Gross City HH Income 2000 $1.174 billion Gross City HH Income 2010 $2.223 billion up 89.4% HH income grew twice as fast as population (36.5%)

7 Resident Workforce: 2010 Characteristics Number Percent Total Workers 32,820 Major Occupations Professional and Bus. Services 7, Education and Health Services 6, Government 3, Total* 18, Place of Work Rockville 22.8 Percent of jobs in city 10.8 Montgomery County 42.8 DC or Virginia 27.8 Other Maryland 6.6 *Retail, Financial Services, Hospitality, Other Services = 9,683 or 29.5%

8 Rockville As A Business Center, 2010 Core Sectors Define City s Economic Base Sector Number of Jobs Percent Professional and Bus. Services* 18, Financial Services* 6, Government 7, Subtotal 24, Education and Health Services 13, Retail Trade 4, Leisure and Hospitality 3, Subtotal 46, Construction 4, Manufacturing 2, *most specialized All Jobs in Rockville 67,693

9 Rockville s Employment Base Salary Structure, 2009 Income Range Jobs in Rockville Percent Less than $50,000 35, $50,000 to $74,999 12, $75,000 or more 19, Total 67, Jobs Held By City Residents Less than $50,000 15, $50,000 to $74,999 6, $75,000 or more 10, Total 32,

10 Economic Forecast, Metric 2020 Increase Percent Gross Regional Product $577.5 b $152.5 b 35.9 Metro Area Job Growth m 503.1k 13.3 Replacement Job Openings 901.4k 23.8 MC Gross County Product $94.0 b $24.5 b 35.2 MC Job Growth 565,133 92, Prof. & Bus. Services 101,149 22, Health Services 65,823 14, Administrative Services 39,677 8, Subtotal* 159,932 46, Other Major Sectors** 141,556 41, *33.8% of job base projected to generate 50.5% of Montgomery County s new jobs. **retail trade, financial services, education services, leisure and hospitality services

11 Rockville s Job Forecasts Core Sectors, Sectors Current Share Increased Share(1) Retail Trade Financial Services Professional Services* 5,805 6,390 Education Services Health Services 2,064 2,406 Leisure & Hospitality State & Local Government 1,070 1,248 Totals 11,047 12,433 (1) reflects faster growing population, higher HH incomes, growing proportion of residents working in city, trend towards centralization of non-resident serving activities due to rising transportation costs. *includes business and administrative services

12 Rockville s future economy will build on the synergies and interdependencies of its core and residentially supporting sectors and will be shaped by its assets and liabilities.

13 The Rockville Economy Government Residential Retail Health & Education Business Activities

14 Rockville s Assets Define Its Competitive Advantages A multi-modal transportation network that focuses a large labor market on its business centers to the benefit of potential employers A concentration of government agencies and services with synergies to professional and business services establishments A high quality workforce and residential community Easily accessible educational and health facilities Developable sites and capacity to grow Substantial investment in infrastructure and mixed-use development with supporting cultural amenities

15 Rockville s Liabilities Define Its Competitive Disadvantages Some liabilities are inherent and the city cannot fundamentally alter these: condition and capacity of transportation services existing land use pattern and availability of land Cost of doing business in the city Higher costs must be justified by more and/or higher levels of services or higher returns on investment

16 Challenges Facing Rockville Having a sufficient supply and quality of labor to support future job growth Having sufficient housing resources in number, variety of types, and range of costs both for renters and owners to house an Increasing share of the city s workforce thereby reducing the economy s dependence on commuters to fill these local jobs making the city more attractive to business location while achieving greater energy and environmental efficiencies

17 Issues for Discussion The city s continuing household growth, its increasing diversity and age, and its economic profile; Growth of the city s housing stock to accommodate changing demand for a wider range of housing unit sizes, styles, densities, prices and tenure choices; Increased density and mix of land uses within the city s business centers to accommodate sufficient market scale and diversity of services to achieve synergy among public and private sectors activities; Growth policies and strategies that reflect the principles of smart growth, encourage workers in the city to live in the city and achieve a fiscally favorable non-residential land use mix within the city.

18 Thank You Questions for me?