The Washington Area Economy: Repositioning for Renewed Growth
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1 Finance and Administration Roundtable The Washington Area Economy: Repositioning for Renewed Growth Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University May 2, 25
2 The Washington Metropolitan Area from The International Space Station, January 2, 23
3
4 The District of Columbia and Washington Metropolitan Area Economies in 244 (population and employment in millions, GSP/GRP in billions of 29 $s) Metric 24 % 244 % Change Population: DC Metro Area Employment: DC Metro Area GSP/GRP: DC $6. $ Metro Area $ $, Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5 The First 2 Years
6 Population and Federal Employment Growth In the Washington Area, 8-2 Years DC Metro Area Federal Employees 8 8,44 63,653* 3** 86 75,8 4,25* 2,99** 87 3,7 23,8* 6,222** 9 278,78 378,65* 2,834** , ,98 68,5** ,9 967,985 33,645** ,234,452,349 24,77** ,35 4,27,8 355, ,552 4,843,28 326, , 5,64,46 38,2 *DC, Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George s, **in DC only Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 Thousands Population Growth by Decade Washington MSA s s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s 7s 8s 9s s Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
8 s Population in the Washington MSA By Sub-State Area, 9-2 Suburban MD Northern VA D.C. Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
9 Growth in Jobs, 98-2 s District of Columbia Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
10 5 Changing Job Patterns in the Washington Metro Area, 95 2 (Percent Share of Total) 4 3 2
11 $ Billions Federal Spending By Type, Washington Metro Area, Wages & Salaries Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report
12 Share of Washington Area Economy % 45% Northern Virginia 4% 35% Suburban MD 3% 25% D.C. 2% 5% %
13 2 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 2. % Other Federal.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries.% Procurement 9.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
14 From the Recession to the Federal Sequester and Shutdown
15 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 28-Feb 2 Feb 2-Mar (s) Total -8 Total Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
16 The GRP* Effects of Private Sector Job Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Aug 28-March 25 (in 24 $s) Job Change Total GRP Value - 8,3 - $29,44,64, + 223,7 + $22,75,, ,4 - $6,868,964, Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product $6,2 per job contribution to GRP 2 $99,3 per job contribution to GRP
17 Summary of Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, 2-23 Federal Procurement Outlays declined $3.3 billion or 6.% between FY 2 and FY 23. Federal employment has declined since peaking in July 2, losing 2,8 jobs or 5.6%. Federal payroll declined by $2.4 billion or 5.7% between FY 2 and FY 24 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers.
18 (s) Annual Data Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Mar-5 Total: 36.2
19 (s) Annual Data Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Mar-5 Total: 79.2
20 Average Wage and Job Change Washington Metro Area (s) /2-/24 Job Change (left axis) $ Professional & Business Services 48.6 $5.4 Education & Health Services 23 Wage (right axis) 58. $24. Leisure & Hospitality (s of 23 $s $ $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $ $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
21 (s of 23 $s) 72. Average Wages in the Washington Metro Area, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 (s of 23 $s) Average Wage, Washington Metro Area Region D.C. Virginia Maryland Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
23 The Household Income Effects of Structural Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Jurisdiction Median HH Income 23* Change from 29* District (DC) $67,575 $2,99 Frederick Cty 84,38 - $5,856 Montgomery Cty 98,326 - $4,552 Prince George s Cty 72,52 - $4,6 Arlington County 2,5 - $,675 Fairfax County,79 - $249 Loudoun County 6,768 - $7,283 Prince Wm County 95,268 - $2,234 Alexandria City 86,775 $2,985 Total Metro Area $9,49 - $2,287 Source: U.S. Census, ACS -Year; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 23 dollars
24 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.%.%.% -.% -2.% 5 Largest Metro Area Job Markets GRP Percent Change: Washington -.8% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
25 (s) 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% % % % 5 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Washington +.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
26 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.%.5%.%.5%.% 5 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Mar 24 Mar 25 Washington +.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
27 (s) Annual Job Change Washington MSA, Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
28 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 24 Mar 25 Washington MSA (s) Total = 5,7 3 (2.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
29 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 Mar 25 Washington MSA - 2 (s) Total = 7,5 2 4 (2.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
30 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change District of Columbia, Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
31 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 24 Mar 25 District of Columbia - 2 (s) Total,6 (2.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
32 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 Mar 25 District of Columbia - (s) Total 7 (2.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
33 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
34 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 24 Mar 25 Suburban Maryland - - (s) Total 9, (2.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 6
35 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 Mar 25 Suburban Maryland (s) Total, (2.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
36 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
37 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 24 Mar 25 Northern Virginia (s) Total 6,2 3 (2.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6 6
38 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 Mar 25 Northern Virginia - - (s) Total 6,3 3 (2.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
39 2 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 5.5 U.S. 4.6 SMD 4.7 MSA 4. - NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
40 7. % Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate March 25 US 5.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
41 Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area: 24-29
42 Washington Metropolitan Area and U.S. Economic Growth (annual percent real change) Year U.S. WMSA Sources: IHS Economics, Inc. April 25 ; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
43 % 4 2 U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP (Annual % Change) U.S. -2 Washington -4 Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 25
44 % Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) SM NV MSA DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 25
45 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) * D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change 99-2 = 35,98 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 25) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.
46 Principal Sources of Job and GRP Growth in the Washington Area, (in thousands) Growth Job % of Total Average Value Sectors Change Job Change Added per Job* Prof. & Bus. Ser $57,969 Construction $,992 Education/Health $72,62 Hospitality Services $5, State and Local $8,736 Sub-Total $9,749 Overall Total $54,3 Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 24$s
47 Job and GRP Gains and Losses for the Washington Area s Other Sectors, (in thousands) Job % of Total Average Value Change Job Change Added per Job* Federal Gov t $85,84 Retail Trade.5.2 $64,478 Other Services 2.6. $86,5 Financial Services -.. $62,922 Information Services 2..9 $4,37 Manufacturing.. $249,934 Transportation $23,5 Wholesale Trade $25,783 Sub-Totals $97,8 Overall Total $54,3 Sources: IHS Economics, Inc.; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 24 $s
48 29 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 7.6% Other Federal 8.4% Fed Wages & Salaries 7.3% Total Federal 28.8% Procurement 3.% Local Serving Activities 38.2% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
49 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
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