VIRGINIA BUSINESS INDICATORS. 2nd Quarter 2018 ECONOMIC INFORMATION & ANALYTICS. Volume 3, Number 2

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1 ECONOMIC INFORMATION & ANALYTICS Volume 3, Number 2 VIRGINIA Virginia Employment Commission BUSINESS INDICATORS A Publication of the Virginia Employment Commission

2 Virginia Business Indicators (Millions of Dollars) (Millions of Dollars) 2017 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January 8,695 9,952 3,671 4,164 February 8,890 10,057 3,744 4,239 March 10,564 10,464 4,445 4,397 April 9,959 9,930 4,177 4,169 May 10,371 10,144 4,346 4,269 June 11,067 10,523 4,634 4,431 July 10,066 10,162 4,218 4,278 August 10,308 10,362 4,305 4,346 September 10,471 10,492 4,346 4,371 October 10,195 10,021 4,238 4,169 November 10,394 10,574 4,319 4,369 December 12,319 10,513 5,122 4, January 9,079 10,392 3,753 4,256 February 9,058 10,247 3,728 4,221 March 10,783 10,681 4,429 4,381 April 10,237 10,207 4,185 4,177 May 11,021 10,780 4,484 4,405 June 11,253 10,699 4,571 4,370 Single Family Permits New Business Incorporations New Vehicle Registrations 2017 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January 1,704 1,966 1, ,592 40,449 February 1,727 1, ,228 44,878 March 2,226 2,112 1,182 1,043 45,491 42,179 April 1,935 1, ,414 34,001 May 2,146 1, ,040 38,346 June 2,270 2, ,978 40,223 July 2,204 1, ,540 36,768 August 2,148 2,034 1,026 1,090 41,376 40,788 September 1,870 1, ,930 38,239 October 1,992 2, ,005 38,504 39,976 November 1,604 1, ,319 43,417 December 1,717 2, ,036 35,207 41, January 1,791 2,066 1, ,228 40,095 February 1,665 1,757 1,021 1,008 33,585 44,035 March 2,222 2,108 1,140 1,006 44,042 40,835 April 2,094 1, ,326 37,375 May 1,966 1,768 1, ,833 41,726 June 2,048 1, ,424 38,863 2

3 Virginia Business Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted) Total nominal taxable retail sales increased 1.2 percent from last quarter, setting a new record high in May. The total for the inflation-adjusted series increased 0.7 percent from last quarter. 2,300 Single Family Housing Permits Single family building permits fell 9.5 percent from first quarter s total and are now about 58 percent below the average monthly pre-recession high of 4,300. 2,100 New business incorporations fell 5.5 percent from last quarter and are now almost 46 percent below the 1,730 peak monthly average attained in New vehicle registrations were 5.6 percent lower than last quarter s total. The second quarter average was about 13 percent below the pre-recession high of about 45,000 per month. 1,900 1,700 1, (Billions of Dollars) 1,100 New Business Incorporations , , (Billions of Dollars) New Vehicle Registrations , , ,000 38, , , January June 2018 (seasonally adjusted) 3

4 Retail Sales and Building Permits by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (Dollars) Area 2017q2 2018q2 Percent Change Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford MSA (millions) % Charlottesville MSA (millions) % Harrisonburg MSA (millions) % Lynchburg MSA (millions) % Northern Virginia MSA (billions) % Richmond MSA (billions) % Roanoke MSA (billions) % Staunton-Waynesboro MSA (millions) % Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA (billions) % Winchester MSA (millions) % Virginia (billions) % Area Single Family Building Permits 2017q2 Monthly Coverage Percent* 2018q2 Monthly Coverage Percent* Percent Change Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford MSA 14 40% 13 13% -7.1% Charlottesville MSA % % 10.3% Harrisonburg MSA % % 27.2% Lynchburg MSA % 51 53% -51.0% Richmond MSA 1, % 1, % 1.8% Staunton-Waynesboro MSA 57 69% 39 78% -31.6% Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MSA 1,112 99% 1,276 98% 14.7% Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 4,054 99% 3,934 99% -3.0% Winchester, VA-WV MSA % % -11.7% Virginia 6,351 6, % United States 229, , % Monthly building permit data is not available for the Roanoke MSA. *Monthly Coverage Percent: Not all building permit offices are in the monthly survey. For offices that only report annually, no estimate is made of their monthly activity, so the monthly estimate of the metropolitan area total may be missing some data. This column shows the percentage of the most current annual housing units authorized of those places in the monthly survey in this metropolitan area. 4

5 Historical Summary Performance of Indicators Over the Business Cycle For those interested in studying the business cycle in Virginia, this publication includes several of the economic time series for which data is readily available on a monthly basis. From time to time, new series will be added and, if necessary, others presently included will be discontinued. Business Cycle Turning Points The beginning of a recession is defined as the month when aggregate economic activity in the U.S. reaches a cyclical high, from which it begins to turn down, and the end as the month when it reaches a cyclical low, from which it begins to turn up. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced on December 1, 2008, that a recession had begun in December On September 20, 2010, the NBER announced the recession had ended in June Seasonal Adjustment To correlate changes in a time series and changes in the business cycle, it is desirable to eliminate, insofar as possible, the effect of irrelevant factors from the data comprising the series. All series currently published in the Virginia Business Indicators have been adjusted to minimize regular seasonal fluctuations in the data in order to show only activity related to the business cycle. Historical Graphs Historical graphs are published in the back of the fourth quarter issue for each year. Data Sources U.S. Census Bureau: Single Family Housing Permits Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles: New Vehicle Registration Virginia Department of Taxation: Virginia State Corporation Commission: New Business Incorporations For additional information or explanation of the contents of this document, you may contact the Economic/Operations Research section at (804) or James.Wilson@vec.virginia.gov. This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner. 5