Virginia Economic Indicators

Transcription

1 Virginia Economic Indicators Volume 47, Number 3

2 Please address your comments to: Timothy O. Kestner, Director Economic Information Services Division Virginia Employment Commission P.O. Box 1358 Richmond, Virginia (804) For additional information or explanation of the contents of this document, you may contact the Economic/Operations Research section at (804) or For updates on upcoming issues of the Virginia Economic Indicators and other related information, follow us on Twitter at: This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner. ii

3 Virginia Economic Indicators Foreword...iv United States Economic Assessment 3rd Quarter...1 Virginia Indicators for 3rd Quarter...2 Table and Graphs Data: January September Employment Indicators... 8 Unemployment Insurance Indicators... 8 Goods Producing Employment Trade Employment Transportation, Information, and Finance Employment Service Employment Government Employment Manufacturing Production Worker Indicators Business Indicators Historical Summary Publication Staff: Timothy O. Kestner, Editor; Joan McDorman, Assistant Editor; Linda Simmons, Graphic Design/Layout The Virginia Employment Commission is an equal opportunity employer/program. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities. iii

4 Foreword For those who are interested in studying the business cycle, the Virginia Economic Indicators publication is designed to depict the movement of the key economic indicator series readily available in Virginia. Most of these series are published elsewhere; but here, they are brought together in both graphic and tabular form, under one cover, and grouped so that they may be analyzed and interpreted easily. All but five of the series currently used are produced in-house by the Economic Information Services (EIS) Division of the Virginia Employment Commission and are comparable to similar national series produced by the U.S. Department of Labor. The five business indicators are provided by sources outside of the agency (see the Historical Summary at the back of this publication for data sources) and should prove useful to the student of business cycle development in Virginia. All series published in the Indicators have been seasonally adjusted to minimize regular seasonal fluctuations in the data in order to show only activity related to the business cycle. The Virginia Economic Indicators is the only seasonally adjusted publication of some of the Virginia series. From time to time, new series will be added to this report as the data becomes available and is collected and tested. Also, series presently provided, if necessary, may be discontinued. Historical graphs are published in the back of the fourth quarter issue for each year. This publication provides a narrative analysis update of the U.S. economy and narrative analysis of recent changes in Virginia. Occasionally, feature articles dealing with some currently important aspects of the Virginia economy are presented. Feature articles are written in-house or by guest authors knowledgeable on particular economics-related subjects. This publication is normally produced quarterly by April, June, September, and January, but data in the series is provided on a monthly basis. There is a time lag of one quarter before all the data series are available for publication and analysis. With the 2002 benchmarks in 2003, all states were required to switch to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes which replace the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes formerly used. The NAICS codes were updated in The NAICS conversion affects the factory employment series and the four hours-and-earnings series in that, where data has been revised to NAICS, data prior to this time is still on the old SIC basis with more manufacturing industries. This means a slight break in these series when comparisons are made with periods prior to The main change to manufacturing is that, under NAICS, newspapers and publishing houses are no longer included in manufacturing, and so their employment and earnings are no longer included in data after The U.S. forecast analysis is based on the IHS Global Insight projections which the state purchases. Virginia estimates use the state model with enhancements from VEC data for the areas. iv

5 United States Economic Assessment Timothy O. Kestner, Director, EIS 3rd Quarter The Bureau of Economic Analysis has reported that the United States economy grew at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2015 as measured by the third estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP). GDP had risen to 3.9 percent annual growth in the second quarter. The fundamental components of the economy continue to grow albeit modestly. While decelerating in the third quarter, consumer spending was strong and is predicted to accelerate in There was a mixed bag of change in private investment in the third quarter that pulled the sector into negative territory, yet this should reverse itself as we move into the first part of the new year. On the international front, exports of U.S. goods especially manufacturing goods were stymied by the strong dollar and restrained foreign growth, while international sales of U.S. services grew. The deceleration of total imports was due entirely to the decreased demand in foreign goods. The importation of services, however, grew in the third quarter. Total government grew in the third quarter, but had declined somewhat because of weakness in all sectors except federal nondefense, which was very strong relative to the second quarter. Expectations for fourth quarter GDP are lukewarm at best, with predictions leaning towards 1.5 percent, or less, as consumer spending especially the all-important services side continues to be weak. On the bright side, as 2016 progresses, consumer spending in both goods and services are likely to recover as is private investment. The 292,000 jobs added to U.S. payrolls in December was better than expected by many analysts. Professional and business services, construction, health care, and food services saw the largest growth in employment. Manufacturing and retail had little change over the month, and mining lost jobs in December a trend throughout most of The official unemployment rate held strong at 5.0 percent in December, as it had for November and October what one would expect as the median natural unemployment rate. The 7.9 million unemployed in December was statistically unchanged. However, there is cause for concern about the workforce, as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen stated in her December 16 press conference that involuntary parttime employment is higher than one would wish, and the growth of wages remains irregular. In a manner that mimics the measured release of a patient from her doctor s care and oversight, the Federal Reserve s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the interest rate on loans that depository institutions lend one another formally known as the federal funds rate from near zero to 0.25 percent, thereby saying the U.S. economy is well enough to be slowly returning to full form. Seemingly, there is sentiment within the Committee that would push the rate 1.0 percent higher by the end of 2016, bringing the target range to percent. Financial markets are ill at ease, largely as a result of the remaking of China s economy it s evidence of an everincreasing global relationship, the likes of which China seems to misread. Truly, the spread of globalization especially with regards to international financial obligations is still a novelty to most nations, but those with long histories in capitalism and democracy are better prepared to comprehend the impacts of such relationships. 1

6 James P. Wilson, Senior Economist ² ² Nonfarm employment had a net loss of 4,500 jobs, or 0.1 percent. ² ² However, the total unemployment rate fell every month, ending the quarter at its lowest level since September ² ² The average insured unemployment rate was unchanged from last quarter, but it remains about 68 percent below the peak level attained in Second Quarter 2009 as claimants have either found work or dropped out of the labor force. ² ² Average initial claims declined 2.3 percent from the second quarter and are now about 67 percent below the recessionary highs reached in the first quarter of September s level set a new record low. The average duration of unemployment for unemployment insurance claimants declined slightly from 16.0 to 15.8 weeks. ² ² Final payments for regular unemployment insurance fell about 9.5 percent for the quarter and are now about 75 percent below the recessionary highs reached in Third Quarter However, the percentage Virginia Indicators James.Wilson@vec.virginia.gov of claimants who exhausted their benefits was still about 41 percent. ² ² Mining and Logging employment set a new record low in July, falling 200 jobs, or 2.4 percent, and remained there for the rest of the quarter. Compared to Third Quarter 2014, Virginia coal production fell 15.0 percent from million tons to million tons, while national production fell 9.0 percent. The U.S. Department of Energy s Energy Information Administration reinstated state-level coal production data in ² ² Construction employment experienced a net loss of 1,800 jobs, or 1.0 percent, and is now 67,200 jobs below its prerecession peak. ² ² Reversing last quarter s gain, Manufacturing employment had a net loss of 600 jobs, or 0.3 percent, returning it to the level of March ² ² Total production hours in Manufacturing increased about 1.1 percent as the average number of production workers fell about 0.1 percent, but the average weekly hours for production workers rose 1.2 percent. 3rd Quarter ² ² Nominal and inflation-adjusted Average Hourly Earnings fell 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. Nominal and inflation-adjusted Average Weekly Earnings increased 0.8 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. The nominal series for both average hourly and weekly earnings set new record highs in September. ² ² Wholesale Trade s employment decreased 400 jobs, or 0.4 percent, in July and stayed there for the rest of the quarter, putting it 11,500 below its prerecession peak. Retail Trade, experienced a net loss of 2,000 jobs, leaving it 15,000 jobs below its pre-recession high. Total nominal and inflationadjusted taxable retail sales increased 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, from last quarter. Nominal taxable retail sales set a new record high in September. ² ² Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities employment recorded a net gain for the quarter of 1,900 jobs, or 1.6 percent, and is now 4,000 below its all-time high set in ² ² Information employment gave up all of last quarter s gain of 1,500 jobs, or 2.1 percent, 2

7 returning it to the level of March ² ² Finance employment set a new record high in July, but ended the quarter with a net gain of only 100 jobs, or 0.1 percent. ² ² Professional and Business Services employment set a new record high in August, but ended the quarter with a net loss of 4,600 jobs, or 0.7 percent. ² ² Private Education and Health Services posted a net gain of 1,600 jobs, or 0.3 percent. ² ² Leisure and Hospitality s employment had a net increase of 1,500 jobs, or 0.4 percent, setting a new record in September. ² ² Employment in Miscellaneous Services posted a net loss of 200 jobs, or 0.1 percent. ² ² Federal Government employment experienced a net loss of 800 jobs, or 0.5 percent, so it is now only 6,200 above the average for 2008 and ² ² State Government employment set a new record high in August and had a net gain of 2,800 jobs, or 1.7 percent. Local Government employment experienced a net decrease of 300 jobs, or 0.1 percent, and is now 11,000 jobs below the prerecession record set in August ² ² Single family building permits rose 3.5 percent from second quarter s total, but are still about 60 percent below the average monthly pre-recession high of 4,300. ² ² New business incorporations rose 5.2 percent from last quarter, but remain over 40 percent below the 1,730 peak monthly average attained in ² ² New vehicle registrations were 7.4 percent higher than last quarter s total. The third quarter average was 5.6 percent below the pre-recession high of almost 45,000 per month. Around the State Because the metropolitan data are not seasonally adjusted, over-the-year analysis (Third Quarter 2015 versus Third Quarter 2014) is used. Totals may not add due to rounding. Statewide there were 38,700 jobs gained, or 1.0 percent of nonfarm employment. The Private sector grew by 38,600 jobs, or 1.2 percent. The biggest increases occurred in Private Education and Health Services (8,700 or 1.8 percent), Leisure and Hospitality Services (6,500 or 1.7 percent), Construction (6,300 or 3.5 percent), and Professional and Business Services (6,300 or 0.9 percent). Other industries with large gains were Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (3,800 or 3.2 percent), Manufacturing (3,300 or 1.4 percent), Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (3,100 or 1.6 percent), and Miscellaneous Services (2,800 or 1.4 percent). Smaller gains were posted in State Government (1,200 or 0.8 percent), Retail Trade (700 or 0.2 percent), and Federal Government (100 or 0.1 percent). Losses were recorded in Information (1,100 or 1.5 percent), Local Government (1,100 or 0.3 percent), Mining and Logging (1,000 or 10.6 percent), and Wholesale Trade (700 or 0.6 percent). The state s unemployment rate fell from 5.3 percent to 4.4 percent, while the national rate fell from 6.2 percent to 5.2 percent. Single family building permits increased 5.9 percent from 5,232 to 5,542. The state s increase was lower than the national increase of 9.4 percent. Taxable retail sales increased 4.1 percent from $28.50 billion to $29.66 billion. Northern Virginia MSA gained 31,200 jobs, or 2.3 percent of nonfarm employment, and provided about 81 percent of statewide total job growth. The Private sector grew by 28,000 jobs, or 2.4 percent. Ten of the 14 sectors grew, with three of them increasing by at least 6,000 jobs. Two sectors declined and two were unchanged. Those sectors with the largest increases were Private Education and Health Services (8,100 or 5.5 percent), Leisure and Hospitality Services (7,000 or 5.1 percent), and Professional and Business Services (6,400 or 1.7 percent). Health Care and Social Assistance provided over 80 percent of the growth in Private Education and Health Services. Permanent layoffs in engineering, custom computer programming, and human resources consulting services reduced growth in the Professional and Business Services sector. Accommodation and food services provided over 80 percent of Leisure and Hospitality s growth. Smaller gains were registered in Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (3,500 or 9.5 percent), Local Government (3,400 or 2.8 percent), Retail Trade (2,300 or 1.7 percent), and Miscellaneous Services (1,000 or 1.3 percent). Growth in Transportation and Retail was reduced by permanent layoffs in truck transportation and general merchandise stores, respectively. The other increases occurred in Wholesale Trade (500 or 1.5 percent), State Government (200 or 1.0 percent), and Manufacturing (200 or 0.8 percent). The two neutral sectors were Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate; and Mining, Logging, and Construction. For the former sector, the gain in finance and insurance was offset by the loss in 3

8 the real estate and rental and leasing. The declining sectors were Information (1,000 or 2.4 percent) and Federal Government (600 or 0.7 percent). The area s unemployment rate, which is the lowest of the MSAs, declined from 4.4 percent to 3.6 percent, but its percentage point advantage over the state decreased from 0.9 to 0.8. Single family building permits for the entire Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC- VA-MD-WV MSA decreased 5.9 percent from 3,413 to 3,211. Taxable retail sales rose 6.3 percent from $11.01 billion to $11.70 billion. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Virginia/North Carolina MSA gained 7,500 jobs, or 1.0 percent of nonfarm employment, and provided about 19 percent of statewide total job growth. The Private sector grew by 8,600 jobs, or 1.4 percent. Six sectors grew, five declined, and three were unchanged. The largest gain was in the Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (2,300 or 6.0 percent) sector. About three-fourths of the sector s gain occurred in finance and insurance and the remainder in real estate and rental and leasing. Next with 1,800 additional jobs each were Mining, Logging, and Construction (5.1 percent) and Leisure and Hospitality Services (2.0 percent). In the latter, accommodation and food services provided all of its sector s growth. Other large gains were registered in the Miscellaneous Services (1,700 or 4.7 percent) and Professional and Business Services (1,500 or 1.4 percent) sectors. In the latter sector, growth in the Administrative and Support Services subsector occurred despite a permanent layoff and was partly offset by a decline in professional and technical services. The smallest gain occurred in Private Education and Health Services (300 or 0.3 percent). Growth in private education services (1,300 or 7.6 percent) was partially offset by the loss in health care and social assistance (1,000 or 1.1 percent). The three neutral sectors were Manufacturing, Retail Trade, and State Government. The gain in Durable Goods Manufacturing was offset by the loss in Non-durable Goods, but both had permanent layoffs: in transportation equipment and nonmetallic mineral products, respectively. The Transportation Equipment industry group grew (100 or 0.3 percent), but the Ship and Boat Building industry fell (300 or 1.1 percent). The largest loss occurred in the Local Government (1,000 or 1.2 percent) sector. Losses of 300 each were posted in the Information (2.7 percent) and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (1.3 percent) sectors. Most of the loss in the latter occurred in transportation and warehousing, which included a permanent layoff in air passenger transportation services. The smallest losses were recorded in the Federal Government (200 or 0.4 percent) and Wholesale Trade sectors (100 or 0.5 percent) sectors. The area s unemployment rate fell from 5.8 percent to 4.8 percent, and the spread with the state narrowed from 0.5 to 0.4 percentage point. Single family building permits for the whole MSA (which includes two counties in North Carolina) decreased 4.4 percent from 1,036 to 990. Taxable retail sales increased 4.4 percent from $5.41 billion to $5.65 billion. Charlottesville MSA gained 2,200 jobs, or 2.0 percent of nonfarm employment. The Private sector increased by 300 jobs, or 0.4 percent. Six sectors gained employment, while three lost employment and five were unchanged. The largest increase occurred in State Government (1,700 or 7.5 percent). Smaller gains were posted in Leisure and Hospitality Services (600 or 4.7 percent) and Private Education and Health Services (200 or 1.6 percent). Gains of 100 each were recorded in Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (2.2 percent), Miscellaneous Services (1.8 percent), and Local Government (1.2 percent). The following sectors were neutral: Federal Government; Manufacturing; Information; Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. Losses occurred in the Professional and Business Services (300 or 2.1 percent); Retail Trade (200 or 1.9 percent); and Mining, Logging, and Construction (100 or 1.9 percent) sectors. The area s unemployment rate fell from 4.8 percent to 3.9 percent and its percentage point advantage over the state remained at 0.5. Single family building permits rose 13.9 percent from 122 to 139. Taxable retail sales increased 7.0 percent from $735.0 million to $786.8 million. Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford MSA gained 2,100 jobs, or 2.8 percent of nonfarm employment. The Private sector grew by 1,000 jobs, or 2.0 percent. The largest gains occurred in the State Government (1,000 or 6.2 percent) and Private Service- Providing (600 or 1.6 percent) sectors. The smallest gains were posted in the Goods-Producing sector (300 or 2.2 percent), composed of Mining, Construction, and Manufacturing, and the Local Government (100 or 1.3 percent) sector. Federal Government was unchanged. The area s unemployment rate fell from 5.8 percent to 4.5 percent, and the gap with the state average improved from 0.5 4

9 percentage point to 0.1. Single family building permits totaled 154. (Building permit data was not available for this MSA until 2015.) Taxable retail sales rose 4.8 percent from $477.6 million to $500.8 million. Winchester Virginia/West Virginia MSA gained 1,600 jobs, or 2.7 percent of nonfarm employment. The Private sector grew by 1,700 jobs, or 3.4 percent. The Private Service-Providing sector rose 1,600, or 3.9 percent, with the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities subsector contributing 900 jobs (7.4 percent) to the growth. The Goods-Producing sector, which consists of Mining, Construction, and Manufacturing, rose by 100, or 1.0 percent. Both State and Local Government were neutral. Federal Government fell by 100, or 4.8 percent. The area s unemployment rate dropped from 4.9 percent to 4.1 percent, but its percentage point advantage over the state decreased from 0.4 to 0.3. Single family building permits for the whole MSA (which includes a county in West Virginia) decreased 14.7 percent from 177 to 151. Taxable retail sales rose 3.6 percent from $532.1 million to $551.3 million. Harrisonburg MSA gained 900 jobs, or 1.4 percent of nonfarm employment. The Private sector grew by 900 jobs, or 1.7 percent. The Private Service- Providing sector had an increase of 1,100, or 2.8 percent. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities increased by 400, or 3.1 percent, while Retail Trade grew by 500, or 7.5 percent. Federal Government rose 100. Local Government was unchanged. State Government fell by 200, or 3.7 percent. The Goods-Producing sector, which is composed of Mining, Construction, and Manufacturing, declined by 200, or 1.5 percent. The area s unemployment rate fell from 5.4 percent to 4.5 percent, but its gap with the state was unchanged at 0.1 percentage point. Single family building permits decreased 3.3 percent from 91 to 88. Taxable retail sales increased 1.2 percent from $485.7 million to $491.6 million. Richmond MSA gained 500 jobs, or 0.1 percent of nonfarm employment. The Private sector fell by 400 jobs, or 0.1 percent. Seven sectors gained employment, while six lost employment, and one was unchanged. The largest increase was posted in Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (1,200 or 6.0 percent). Other large gains were recorded in the Local Government (900 or 1.8 percent) and Leisure and Hospitality Services (800 or 1.3 percent) sectors. The latter s gain was reduced by losses in the Accommodation and Food Services subsector (900 or 1.8 percent). The remaining positive sectors increased by 500 or less: Miscellaneous Services (500 or 1.6 percent), Mining, Logging, and Construction (400 or 1.2 percent), Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (400 or 0.8 percent), and Federal Government (200 or 1.2 percent). Wholesale Trade was neutral. The largest losses were posted in Retail Trade (1,700 or 2.4 percent) and Professional and Business Services (1,000 or 1.0 percent). The loss in the latter sector was about evenly split between professional, scientific, and technical services (600 or 1.6 percent) and administrative and support services (400 or 1.0 percent). Losses of less than 500 each occurred in Manufacturing (400 or 1.3 percent), Private Education and Health Services (400 or 0.4 percent), Information (300 or 3.8 percent), and State Government (100 or 0.3 percent). The area s unemployment rate fell from 5.7 percent to 4.7 percent, and the spread with the state decreased from 0.4 to 0.3 percentage point. Single family building permits increased 18.9 percent from 821 to 976. Taxable retail sales rose 2.4 percent from $4.66 billion to $4.77 billion. Lynchburg MSA gained 100 jobs, or 0.1 percent of nonfarm employment. The Private sector rose by 200 jobs, or 0.2 percent. Three sectors gained employment, while four lost employment, and seven were 5

10 unchanged. The largest gain was in Leisure and Hospitality Services (1,100 or 11.5 percent). Smaller gains were posted in Retail Trade (200 or 1.6 percent) and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (100 or 3.8 percent). The following sectors were neutral: Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate; Government (Federal, State, and Local); Information; Miscellaneous Services; and Wholesale Trade. The largest losses were registered in Professional and Business Services (600 or 4.8 percent) and Mining, Logging, and Construction (400 or 6.8 percent). The other two declining sectors lost 100 jobs each: Manufacturing (0.7 percent) and Private Education and Health Services (0.6 percent). The area s unemployment rate fell from 5.8 percent to 4.9 percent, but the percentage point spread remained at 0.5. Single family building permits rose 2.0 percent from 98 to 100. Taxable retail sales rose 0.4 percent from $735.1 million to $738.0 million. Staunton-Waynesboro MSA lost 200 jobs, or 0.4 percent of nonfarm employment. The Private sector declined by 300 jobs, or 0.7 percent. A loss was posted in the Goods-Producing sector (500 or 5.2 percent), which is composed of Mining, Construction, and Manufacturing. Gains occurred in the Private Service-Providing (200 or 0.7 percent) and Government (100 or 1.2 percent) sectors. (A breakout of Government employment into Federal, State, and Local is not available at this time.) The area s unemployment rate fell from 4.9 percent to 4.2 percent, but its advantage over the state decreased from 0.4 to 0.2 percentage point. Single family building permits rose 13.2 percent from 53 to 60. Taxable retail sales rose 8.5 percent from $351.1 million to $381.1 million; it had the largest percentage increase among the MSAs. Roanoke MSA lost 800 jobs, or 0.5 percent of nonfarm employment. The Private sector rose by 500 jobs, or 0.4 percent. Seven sectors gained employment, while four lost employment, and three were unchanged. The largest loss occurred in Local Government (1,100 or 8.5 percent). Other large losses were posted in Retail Trade (700 or 3.9 percent) and Professional and Businesses Services (500 or 2.3 percent). Contributing to the latter s decline was a permanent layoff in call center services. The smallest loss occurred in Federal Government (100 or 2.3 percent), which had a permanent layoff in the postal service. The three neutral sectors were: Information; Mining, Logging, and Construction; and State Government. The largest gain was in Private Education and Health Services (600 or 2.3 percent). Smaller increases were posted in Leisure and Hospitality Services (400 or 2.8 percent) and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (200 or 2.3 percent). Gains of 100 each occurred in the Wholesale Trade (1.4 percent), Miscellaneous Services (1.3 percent), Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (1.2 percent), and Manufacturing (0.6 percent) sectors. The area s unemployment rate fell from 5.4 percent to 4.4 percent, and its gap with the state average improved from 0.1 percentage point to zero. Effective January 2015, monthly building permit data was no longer available for this area. Taxable retail sales rose 3.6 percent from $1.11 billion to $1.15 billion. 6

11 7

12 Tables and Graphs Data: January September rd Quarter Employment Indicators* Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment Total Unemployment Rate (Percent) 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January 3, , February 3, , March 3, , April 3, , May 3, , June 3, , July 3, , August 3, , September 3, , October 3, , November 3, , December 3, , January 3, , February 3, , March 3, , April 3, , May 3, , June 3, , July 3, , August 3, , September 3, , *These series have been adjusted to First Quarter 2014 benchmarks. Unemployment Insurance Indicators Average Weekly Initial Claims Insured Unemployment Rate (Percent) Unemployment Insurance Final Payments 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January 6,605 4, ,808 4,380 February 4,443 4, ,534 4,607 March 4,084 4, ,342 4,899 April 3,767 4, ,729 4,117 May 3,963 4, ,050 4,181 June 4,324 4, ,374 4,808 July 4,112 4, ,898 3,581 August 3,678 4, ,607 3,698 September 3,361 3, ,950 4,045 October 3,536 3, ,341 3,496 November 3,797 3, ,146 3,730 December 5,825 4, ,977 4, January 5,181 3, ,580 3,262 February 3,758 3, ,717 3,777 March 3,191 3, ,201 3,852 April 3,057 3, ,516 3,061 May 3,307 3, ,020 3,118 June 3,505 3, ,180 3,496 July 3,367 3, ,997 2,753 August 3,061 3, ,205 3,285 September 2,888 3, ,652 2,716 8

13 Employment Indicators Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment Unemployment Insurance Indicators Average Weekly Initial Claims 3,823 4,600 3,813 4,400 3,803 4,200 3,793 3,783 4,000 3,773 3,800 3,763 3,600 3,753 3,400 Total Unemployment Rate (Percent) Insured Unemployment Rate (Percent) Unemployment Insurance Final Payments 5,000 4,600 4,200 3,800 3,400 3, January September ,600 9

14 Mining and Logging Employment Goods Producing Employment* Construction Employment Manufacturing Employment 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September Trade Employment* Wholesale Trade Employment Retail Trade Employment 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September *These series have been adjusted to First Quarter 2014 benchmarks. 10

15 Goods Producing Employment Trade Employment Mining and Logging Employment Wholesale Trade Employment Construction Employment Retail Trade Employment Manufacturing Employment January September

16 Transportation, Information, and Finance Employment* Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Employment Information Employment Finance Employment 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September Service Employment* Professional and Business Services Employment Private Education and Health Services Employment 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September *These series have been adjusted to First Quarter 2014 benchmarks. 12

17 Transportation, Information, and Finance Employment Service Employment 126 Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Employment 688 Professional and Business Services Employment Information Employment 510 Private Education and Health Services Employment Finance Employment January September

18 Service Employment* (Continued) Leisure and Hospitality Services Employment Miscellaneous Services Employment 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September Federal Government Employment *These series have been adjusted to First Quarter 2014 benchmarks. Government Employment* State Government Employment Local Government Employment 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September

19 Service Employment (Continued) Government Employment 380 Leisure and Hospitality Services Employment Federal Government Employment Miscellaneous Services Employment State Government Employment Local Government Employment January September

20 Manufacturing Production Worker Indicators* Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings (Dollars) Deflated Average Hourly Earnings ( Dollars) 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September Total Production Hours Average Weekly Earnings (Dollars) Deflated Average Weekly Earnings ( Dollars) 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January 7,282 7, February 6,949 7, March 7,366 7, April 7,421 7, May 7,506 7, June 7,536 7, July 7,541 7, August 7,532 7, September 7,647 7, October 7,538 7, November 7,568 7, December 7,544 7, January 7,454 7, February 7,272 7, March 7,386 7, April 7,545 7, May 7,526 7, June 7,528 7, July 7,523 7, August 7,724 7, September 7,854 7, *These series have been adjusted to First Quarter 2014 benchmarks. 16

21 Manufacturing Production Worker Indicators 43.5 Average Weekly Hours 7.8 Total Production Hours (Millions) Average Hourly Earnings (Dollars) 900 Average Weekly Earnings (Dollars) Deflated Average Hourly Earnings ( Dollars) 390 Deflated Average Weekly Earnings ( Dollars) January September

22 Business Indicators Single Family Housing Permits New Business Incorporations New Vehicle Registrations 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January 1,413 1,612 1,070 1,006 36,995 36,991 February 1,538 1,604 1,038 1,025 28,614 35,412 March 1,729 1,604 1, ,221 33,749 April 1,861 1,610 1, ,620 36,360 May 1,759 1,527 1,130 1,074 42,495 37,107 June 1,800 1,649 1,031 1,015 44,997 39,850 July 1,850 1,690 1,007 1,005 42,218 39,840 August 1,706 1, ,826 36,464 September 1,676 1, ,001 40,055 40,355 October 1,713 1,794 1,011 1,057 38,734 40,227 November 1,185 1, ,050 29,158 36,859 December 1,370 1, ,050 32,915 40, January 1,404 1,601 1,120 1,053 53,230 53,225 February 1,173 1, ,717 36,778 March 1,816 1,684 1,204 1,053 41,117 37,281 April 2,028 1,754 1,114 1,016 46,324 40,468 May 1,698 1, ,402 36,153 June 2,067 1,894 1,054 1,037 47,407 41,983 July 1,866 1,704 1,049 1,047 45,307 42,755 August 1,640 1, ,028 40,822 39,354 September 2,036 2, ,004 44,932 45,267 Taxable Retail Sales (Millions of Dollars) Deflated Taxable Retail Sales (Millions of Dollars) 2014 Unadjusted Adjusted Unadjusted Adjusted January 8,120 9,262 3,530 4,004 February 8,092 9,104 3,505 3,937 March 9,321 9,228 4,008 3,972 April 9,286 9,210 3,978 3,959 May 9,634 9,476 4,113 4,067 June 9,762 9,253 4,159 3,959 July 9,391 9,510 4,004 4,065 August 9,488 9,482 4,054 4,065 September 9,625 9,689 4,110 4,155 October 9,766 9,758 4,187 4,183 November 9,464 9,588 4,087 4,119 December 11,171 9,541 4,859 4, January 8,312 9,481 3,641 4,129 February 8,204 9,230 3,576 4,017 March 9,806 9,708 4,244 4,206 April 9,710 9,630 4,194 4,174 May 10,053 9,888 4,316 4,268 June 10,343 9,804 4,424 4,211 July 9,817 9,941 4,199 4,262 August 9,782 9,776 4,192 4,203 September 10,064 10,131 4,326 4,372 18

23 Business Indicators 2,200 Single Family Housing Permits 10.2 Taxable Retail Sales (Billions of Dollars) 2, , , , , ,100 New Business Incorporations 4.4 Deflated Taxable Retail Sales (Billions of Dollars) 1, , New Vehicle Registrations 54,000 51,000 48,000 45,000 42,000 39,000 36,000 33, January September

24 Historical Summary Performance of Indicators Over the Business Cycle For those interested in studying the business cycle in Virginia, this publication includes several of the economic time series for which data is readily available on a monthly basis. From time to time, new series will be added and, if necessary, others presently included will be discontinued. Business Cycle Turning Points The beginning of a recession is defined as the month when aggregate economic activity in the U.S. reaches a cyclical high, from which it begins to turn down, and the end as the month when it reaches a cyclical low, from which it begins to turn up. On November 26, 2001, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced a recession had begun in March On July 17, 2003, NBER announced the recession ended in November The NBER announced on December 1, 2008, that a recession had begun in December On September 20, 2010, the NBER announced the recession had ended in June Seasonal Adjustment To correlate changes in a time series and changes in the business cycle, it is desirable to eliminate, insofar as possible, the effect of irrelevant factors from the data comprising the series. All series currently published in the Virginia Economic Indicators have been adjusted to minimize regular seasonal fluctuations in the data in order to show only activity related to the business cycle. Historical Graphs Historical graphs are published in the back of the fourth quarter issue for each year. Data Sources The data source for all series in this publication is the Virginia Employment Commission (VEC), except the following: U.S. Census Bureau: Single Family Housing Permits Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles: New Vehicle Registrations Virginia Department of Taxation: Deflated Taxable Retail Sales Taxable Retail Sales Virginia State Corporation Commission: New Business Incorporations 20