MARKET AREA UPDATE Report as of: 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

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1 Market Area (City, State):Greater Seattle, WA MARKET AREA UPDATE Report as of: 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year:2012 Provided by (Company / Companies):Coldwell Banker Bain, Windermere, Prudential NW, John L. Scott What are the most significant trends in your current real estate market? (Attach addenda, charts, graphs, etc. as appropriate) Around March activity spiked causing low inventory, multiple offers!* Define Market Area: Urban (city limit area only) Metro Area (as defined by MSA) Other: Please explain: * Single Family (detached) Condominiums / Townhome (attached) **Sales Price (current) Choose one: Average Median $462,000 $340,000 **Sales Price (same time prior year) Choose one: Average Median $466,000 $336,000 Average Days on Market list to contract (current) Absorption Months of Inventory (last 3 months) Number of active listings divided by the average # of sales per month (for the last 3 months) = # of months needed to sell existing inventory Absorption Months of Inventory (same time prior year) Active Listings Closed ( total last 3 months) #58 Increase Decreasing Stable #2 #2.9 #3.5 #7.1 #1428 #659 #2061 #543 Expired Listings ( total last 3 months if available) #n/a #n/a Change in Home Values %+3.8 %+3.8 Sold LP/SP Ratio (last 3 months) REAL ESTATE MARKET DATA Increase in past 3 months Stable Decreasing in past 3 months % 97 % 94 #91 Increase Decreasing Stabl Increase in past3months Stable Decreasing in past3months **Average = the result by adding all sales prices and dividing by the number of units sold Median = denoting the middle of the range of values GENERAL ECONOMY How would you rate the overall economic conditions in area as defined above: Mixed Stable Healthy Shrinking Depressed Supply of Listings: (Single family) Shortage Oversupply Balanced ~ (Condo/Townhome) Shortage Oversupply Balanced Overall Market Conditions: Active Stable Sluggish Flat Depressed Unemployment Rate:% %7.5Average Please check trend: Increasing Decreasing Same Please describe local economic conditions/climate: (draw upon newspaper articles concerning the coming and going of corporations, layoffs, etc.) Economy is improving, hiring increasing by most of our major employers. Slight decrease in jobs June over July, but Qtrly increased. Private sector has increased jobs while public sector saw a decrease.* RENTAL INFORMATION Is There a Charge for Rental Assistance: Yes No Outsourced Is Home/Condo Rental Information Available in Your MLS: Yes No Single Family Housing Availability: (3+Bedrooms) Shortage Oversupply Balanced Average Rent 3000limited in MLS Condo/Townhome Availability: (2+Bedrooms) Shortage Oversupply Balanced Average Rent 2550 limited in mls Apartment Availability: (2+Bedrooms) Shortage Oversupply Balanced Average Rent $2500 not in mls

2 Monthly Employment Report for July 2012 On a seasonally adjusted basis, preliminary estimates from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicate Washington added 5,000 jobs from June to July BLS estimates the private sector added 6,300 jobs over the month and the public sector lost 1,300 jobs. Employment estimates in this report are generated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Due to changes in the method BLS uses to produce these data, we expect increased volatility in the estimates. BLS data in this report are rounded to the nearest 100. BLS estimates from July 2011 to July 2012 show a total job gain of 57,000 for the state. Over the year, the private sector added an estimated 62,500 jobs, while the public sector lost an estimated 5,500 jobs. Washington s preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July 2012 rose to 8.5 percent. The estimated June 2012 unemployment rate of 8.3 percent was unchanged. The July 2011 unemployment rate was 9.3 percent. BLS estimates of monthly job gains and losses are based on a survey of businesses. Preliminary estimates are subject to revision. July 2012 jobs revisions: June s preliminary estimated gain of 10,200 jobs was revised to a gain of 12,200 jobs. Sectors with the biggest positive revisions were: government (1,500 jobs higher), other services (700 jobs higher), education and health services (400 jobs higher) and retail trade (300 jobs higher). Sectors with the largest downward revisions were professional and business services (1,000 jobs lower), construction (900 jobs lower) and transportation, warehousing and utilities (700 jobs lower). For more information, call Joe Elling at Resident civilian labor force and unemployment, seasonally adjusted The resident civilian labor force is the total number of people in the workforce, employed and unemployed, ages 16 and up. The number of unemployed is the estimated number of people who currently do not have a job, are available for work and have actively looked for work in the last four weeks. The unemployment rate is the ratio of the estimated number of unemployed divided by the civilian labor force. July June July June (Preliminary) (Revised) (Revised) (Revised) United States Unemployment rate 8.3% 8.2% 9.1% 9.1% Washington Unemployment rate 8.5% 8.3% 9.3% 9.3% Resident labor force 3,516,400 3,526,100 3,477,300 3,477,600 Unemployed 298, , , ,000 Seattle/Bellevue/Everett Unemployment rate 7.5% 7.2% 8.5% 8.6% Resident labor force 1,509,700 1,507,100 1,491,000 1,487,700 Unemployed 112, , , ,400 Washington State Employment Security Department Labor Market and Economic Analysis August 2012

3 Unemployment, seasonally adjusted The BLS estimates Washington s preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July 2012 was 8.5 percent. The preliminary June unemployment rate of 8.3 percent was unchanged. U.S., Washington and Seattle unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted July 2007 through July 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 11% 10% According to BLS estimates, the number of jobless people who were actively seeking work increased by about 4,200. At the same time, the number of employed workers fell an estimated 14,000. Overall, this amounted to a decrease of 9,800 people in the labor force. The preliminary July 2012 unemployment rate is 0.8 percentage point below the July 2011 rate of 9.3 percent. Unemployment rate 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 July 2012 preliminary unemployment rates: Jan-09 Jul-09 Washington U.S. Seattle Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 U.S. (preliminary) 8.3% Washington (preliminary) 8.5% Seattle area (preliminary) 7.5% Jul-12 Employment change and moving average, seasonally adjusted Based on BLS estimates, Washington state gained 5,000 jobs from June 2012 to July 2012 and 57,000 jobs from July 2011 to July Recent employment change May 2012: Up 9,700 jobs (revised) June 2012: Up 12,200 jobs (revised) July 2012: Up 5,000 jobs (preliminary) Monthly employment change and three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted Washington state, July 2010 through July 2012 Source: Employment Security Dept./LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Change in employment 16,000 12,000 8,000 4, ,000-8,000 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Washington Oct-11 Jan-12 3-month average Apr-12 Jul-12 2 Monthly Employment Report for July 2012

4 Employment and the unemployment since the start of the recession, seasonally adjusted February 2008 (start of recent employment recession in Washington) Nonfarm employment: 2,976,200 Unemployment rate: 4.6% February 2010 (end of recent employment recession in Washington) Nonfarm employment: 2,770,100 Unemployment rate: 10.2% July 2012 (preliminary) Nonfarm employment: 2,887,800 Unemployment rate: 8.5% Nonfarm employment and unemployment since the start of the recession, seasonally adjusted Washington state, December 2007 through July 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm employment 3,000,000 2,950,000 2,900,000 2,850,000 2,800,000 2,750,000 2,700,000 2,650,000 2,600,000 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Nonfarm employment Unemployment rate Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Unemployment rate 3 Monthly Employment Report for July 2012

5 Industry employment in Washington, seasonally adjusted One-month employment change by industry Based on a BLS survey of businesses, Washington gained an estimated 5,000 jobs over the month, on a seasonally adjusted basis: Overall, nine sectors expanded in July, while three contracted and one was unchanged. Private sector employment is estimated to have risen by 6,300, while government employment fell by an estimated 1,300 jobs. The manufacturing sector added an estimated 1,600 jobs. Aerospace product and parts manufacturing accounted for 1,100 of the increase. Retail trade employment grew by an estimated 400 in July. The largest growth within retail trade came from building materials and garden supply stores, up 400, while the number of jobs in clothing and accessory stores fell by 900. Wholesale trade expanded by 1,200 jobs over the month. Merchant wholesaler employment in nondurable goods increased by 800 and 500 among durable goods wholesalers. Education and health services employment increased by 1,900. The number of education based jobs was up 2,300 while health services jobs fell by 400. State government lost an estimated 1,900 jobs over the month. Federal and local government employment each rose by 300. Estimated one-month employment change by industry, seasonally adjusted Washington state, June 2012 to July 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Total Nonfarm 5,000 Other Services 2,900 Education and Health Services 1,900 Manufacturing 1,600 Wholesale Trade 1,200 Leisure and Hospitality 1,200 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 900 Financial Activities 900 Retail Trade 400 Information 100 Mining and Logging 0 Construction -200 Government -1,300 Professional and Business Services -4,600 4 Monthly Employment Report for July 2012

6 Industry employment in Washington, seasonally adjusted, continued Over the year change by industry Based on a BLS survey of businesses, Washington added an estimated 57,000 jobs over the year: Overall, 11 sectors grew, one sector contracted and another was unchanged. Private sector employment rose 2.7 percent, up an estimated 62,500 jobs. Public sector employment fell 1%, a loss of 5,500 jobs. Professional and business services added an estimated 10,900 jobs over the year. Within the sector, administrative and support services grew by 7,300 jobs over the year, computer systems design and related services by 2,000 jobs, and accounting and bookkeeping services by 1,600 jobs. Manufacturing employment grew by an estimated 14,100 jobs over the year. Durablegoods manufacturers added 11,900 jobs with 7,800 of the increase in aerospace product and parts manufacturing. Nondurable goods manufacturers added 2,200 jobs. Retail trade grew by an estimated 7,700 jobs. Other retail trade contributed 6,300 jobs to the increase. Total government employment fell 5,500 over the year. Local governments cut 2,900 jobs and the state and federal governments each reduced employment by 1,300. Estimated year-over-year employment change by industry, seasonally adjusted Washington state, July 2011 to July 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Total Nonfarm 57,000 Manufacturing 14,100 Professional and Business Services 10,900 Leisure and Hospitality 8,500 Retail Trade 7,700 Wholesale Trade 7,300 Other Services 5,100 Financial Activities 2,800 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 2,600 Construction 1,700 Education and Health Services 1,400 Information 400 Mining and Logging 0 Government -5,500 5 Monthly Employment Report for July 2012

7 Seasonally adjusted employment Seasonally adjusted numbers account for normal seasonal patterns that occur year after year, such as strong seasonal hiring in retail trade around the holidays. Taking into account normal seasonal variations makes it possible to see unusual changes in employment levels. Normal seasonal change is the expected monthly change in employment based on history. Estimated change is the employment change over the month based on BLS survey data. Seasonally adjusted change is change in employment taking into account the normal seasonal movement. Normal, estimated and seasonally adjusted employment Washington state, July 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Industry sector Normal seasonal change Estimated change Seasonally adjusted change Total Nonfarm -13,540-8,540 5,000 Total Private 8,259 14,559 6,300 Construction 3,740 3, Manufacturing 2,029 3,629 1,600 Professional and Business Services 1,983-2,617-4,600 Retail Trade 1,859 2, Leisure and Hospitality 1,829 3,029 1,200 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 1,219 2, Other Services 867 3,767 2,900 Information Wholesale Trade 444 1,644 1,200 Financial Activities 408 1, Mining and Logging Education and Health Services -6,915-5,015 1,900 Government -21,799-23,099-1,300 Based on historical patterns, Washington typically loses 13,500 jobs from June to July. This year, the state had an estimated loss of 8,500 jobs, amounting to a seasonally adjusted increase of 5,000 jobs. Construction typically experiences a gain of 3,700 jobs in July. The unadjusted job gain for this July was 3,500, meaning there was a seasonally adjusted loss of 200 jobs. The leisure and hospitality sector historically adds 1,800 jobs in July. This sector added 3,000 jobs driving a seasonally adjusted increase of 1,200 jobs for the month. Manufacturing employment rose by 3,600 in July. Typically the July increase is 2,000, so on a seasonally adjusted basis manufacturing employment rose 1,600. Government employment normally falls by 21,800 in July. This July it fell by an estimated 23,100 jobs for a seasonally adjusted loss of 1,300 jobs. 6 Monthly Employment Report for July 2012

8 Benchmarking highlights, seasonally adjusted Quarterly benchmarked industry employment Washington state, March 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Revisions to March 2012 employment Industry sector level Total Nonfarm -1,300 Other Services 1,700 Manufacturing 1,400 Financial Activities 700 Professional and Business Services 500 Information 400 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 200 Government 200 Mining and Logging 100 Wholesale Trade 0 Education and Health Services -700 Leisure and Hospitality -900 Construction -1,800 Retail Trade -3,100 Benchmarking is a process that replaces employment estimates with the actual number of job gains or losses. Each month, economists estimate monthly job gains and losses based on a survey of employers. Then, each quarter, economists benchmark the estimates by replacing them with data from employer tax records, before applying seasonal adjustments. Benchmarked employment data are now available through March Employment estimates for July 2012 presented in this report were based on these new data, plus seasonal adjustments. Based on benchmarked March 2012 data: The overall seasonally adjusted employment level at the end of March 2012 was 1,300 lower than initially estimated. Other services had the largest upward revision (up 1,700 jobs, seasonally adjusted), followed by manufacturing (up 1,400 jobs). The sector with the largest downward revision in jobs was retail trade, down 3,100 jobs from earlier estimates. Other sectors with notable downward benchmarking revisions were construction (down 1,800 jobs), and leisure and hospitality (down 900 jobs). Each time employment estimates are benchmarked, estimates for subsequent months are recalculated. Based on benchmarked March 2012 data, employment estimates for April, May and June of 2012 were recalculated. 7 Monthly Employment Report for July 2012

9 Total agricultural employment summary, not seasonally adjusted Statewide from June to July, agricultural employment increased 45.6 percent. Year over year statewide, agricultural employment increased 7.8 percent. This was due primarily to a 13.7 percent increase in cherry harvest. Regionally, over the past year, all six areas had increases in total agricultural employment. The largest increase (4,230 jobs) was in the North Central agricultural reporting area. Total agricultural employment Washington state, July 2012 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA Change Percent change July 2012 June 2012 July 2011 June 11 - July 11 - June 11 - July 11 - Preliminary Revised Revised July 12 July 12 July 12 July 12 Statewide 139,220 95, ,160 43,590 10, % 7.8% Western 16,000 10,820 14,080 5,180 1, % 13.6% South Central 43,740 32,480 42,310 11,270 1, % 3.4% North Central 38,520 19,750 34,210 18,770 4, % 12.6% Columbia Basin 15,680 12,470 14,730 3, % 6.4% South Eastern 23,520 18,510 22,260 5,000 1, % 5.7% Eastern 1,760 1,600 1, % 12.1% Totals may not add due to rounding. We report only agricultural employment covered by unemployment insurance, not adjusted for multiple jobholders. Agricultural employment estimates are developed by the Labor Market and Economic Analysis branch of the Employment Security Department. Estimates are based on a monthly survey of agricultural producers conducted by Employment Security. For agricultural reporting, we divide the state into six areas based on geography and types of agricultural activity. View a map of Washington s agricultural reporting areas at: wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/ reports-publications/industryreports/agricultural-employmentand-wage-report/map-ofwash ingtons-agricultural-areas. 8 Monthly Employment Report for July 2012

10 Contacts Chief Economist: Joe Elling Economists: Bruce Nimmo Alex Roubinchtein, Ph.D Chris Thomas Regional labor economists: Scott Bailey, Southwest Washington Mark Berreth, N. Central Washington Don Meseck, S. Central Washington Desiree Phair, King County ext Elizabeth Scott, Ph.D., Olympic Consortium Ajsa Suljic, Benton-Franklin Paul Turek, Ph.D., Pierce Doug Tweedy, Spokane Anneliese Vance-Sherman, Ph.D., Snohomish Jim Vleming, Pacific Mountain Washington Relay Service: Most of the employment numbers discussed in this report refer to jobs, not persons. For example, if a person holds two positions, these positions are counted as two jobs in the employment series. In the section titled Unemployment, these positions refer to individuals, not jobs. In this case, a person holding two jobs is counted only once. Note: Due to changes in the processing of the monthly employment data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the county level information will be available at 10 a.m., July 24, The publication schedule for 2012 can be found at: The Employment Security Department is an equal-opportunity employer and provider of programs and services. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to people with disabilities. 9 Monthly Employment Report for July 2012 LM

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