C I T Y O F B O I S E

Transcription

1 C I T Y O F B O I S E D E P A R T M E N T O F F I N A N C E A N D A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Office of Budget Development & Monitoring Economic Brief Shannon Cade, Financial Analyst & Brent Davis, Budget Manager Volume 8 Quarter 1 (CY) 2016 (January 1 - March 31) Quarterly Summary Employment Construction The labor force in Boise continues to grow and the unemployment rate remains low at 3.6. Single family permit revenue is up 28.2 over last year, which is a strong indicator of continued economic activity. Special Points of Interest Boise s unemployment rate remains low at 3.6 Housing Sales Tax Airport Traffic Inventory is 11.4 above this time last calendar year. This is the result of increased construction activity and increased housing demand (sellers environment). Inventory will be closely watched to monitor if or when supply begins to out pace demand (buyers environment). Sales tax receipts increased by $19.7 M, or 5.3, over last year. Sales tax revenue is expected to remain strong. air passenger traffic continues to post substantial year over year gains and is a strong indicator for a stable economic environment. Construction permits increased by 10.5 Inside this issue: Quarterly Summary 1 Employment Data 1-4 Construction Activity 5-6 Housing Trends 7 State Sales Tax 7 Airport Data 8 CY = Calendar Year Q = Quarter YOY = Year Over Year MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area 100 basis points = 1 NOTE: Signs indicate a general economic outlook compared to the previous quarter and/or year. Employment Data employment as of March 2016 is up 2,693 jobs, or 2.3, compared to last year. Comparing QR4 end (Dec.) to QR1 end (Mar.) total employment rose by 713 jobs, or 0.6. When compared with the prior year, the unemployment rate for Boise in the first quarter is down 50 basis points, from 3.9 to 3.4. When compared to the prior quarter end (Dec), the unemployment rate for Boise increased 50 basis points from 3.1 to 3.6. Relative to comparable cities in the western United States, Boise continues to post low unemployment numbers. Boise s unemployment rate for March was 40 basis points below the Boise MSA, equal to Ada County, 80 basis points below Idaho, and 160 basis points below the United States. The unemployment rate measure includes jobless individuals who are available and have been actively looking for work in the past four weeks. Since this statistic does not include discouraged or underemployed workers, parts of the employment picture may be missing. Underemployment is a complex and difficult statistic to measure; however, the Bureau of Statistics (BLS) created a measure (called U-6) designed to more broadly measure unemployment by counting unemployed (including long-term job seeking), temporary workers, and part-time workers (those that are part-time for economic reasons). The average U-6 measurement (4-quarter moving average), decreased from 9.8 in CY 2015 to 8.4 in CY This measure ranked 14th among all states and was well below the national average of 10.1 NOTE: This quarterly brief is based on the calendar year, not the fiscal year, unless otherwise stated.

2 Employment (continued) Jan '16 (Revised) Jan (Actual) Area Boise City 119, ,238 4, , ,180 4, Ada County 220, ,229 8, , ,597 9, Boise MSA 327, ,427 14, , ,199 15, Idaho 796, ,830 37, , ,291 40, United States Feb '16 (Revised) Feb (Actual) Area Boise City 119, ,572 4, , ,645 4, Ada County 220, ,845 7, , ,453 8, Boise MSA 328, ,659 13, , ,802 14, Idaho 798, ,960 36, , ,258 38, United States Mar '16 (Preliminary) Mar (Actual) Area Boise City 120, ,157 4, , ,938 4, Ada County 221, ,921 7, , ,994 8, Boise MSA 329, ,770 12, , ,086 14, Idaho 801, ,795 33, , ,404 37, United States CY Q1 '16 (Average) CY Q1 (Average) Area Boise City 119, ,656 4, , ,588 4, Ada County 220, ,998 7, , ,348 8, Boise MSA 328, ,952 13, , ,696 14, Idaho 799, ,195 35, , ,984 38, United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Statistics, data through March (not seasonally adjusted)

3 Employment (continued) Employment 125, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,221 March Unemployment Rate Boise City Ada County Boise MSA Idaho United States March Unemployment Rate - Comparative Cities Aurora, CO Fort Collins, CO Boise, ID Eugene, OR Reno, NV Salem, OR Salt Lake City, UT Spokane, WA Tacoma, WA Source: US Bureau of Statistics, data through March (not seasonally adjusted)

4 Employment (continued) Boise MSA Non-Farm Employment Sector Information The Boise MSA has 54 different employment sectors that respond differently to current economic conditions. The following table highlights the 4 best and worst performing industries compared to both last quarter and last year. During the first quarter, Specialty Trade Contractors had the largest percentage increase of jobs, at 19.1, compared to last year. Business Support Services, once again, had the largest decrease, 17.4, compared to last year, however showed the strongest gain when compared to the prior quarter. Quarter over Quarter - Average Jobs Change Year over Year - Average Jobs Change Gains Gains Business Support Services 1, Specialty Trade Contractors 2, State Government Education Mining, Logging, and Construction 2, Administrative & Support Services 2, Goods Producing 3, Other General Merchandise Stores Employment Services 1, Losses Losses Services to Bulidgins & Dwellings (467) -8.8 Administrative & Support Services 2, Mining, Logging, and Construction (1,900) -9.2 Local Government Education Construction of Builiding (533) Computrer & Peripheral Manufacturing (600) -9.1 Computrer & Peripheral Manufacturing (400) Business Support Services Data through March (not seasonally adjusted) Boise Non-farm Employment Sector YOY Changes - Quarter Specialty Trade Contractors Mining, Logging, and Construction Goods Producing Employment Services Administrative & Support Services Local Government Education Computrer & Peripheral Manufacturing Business Support Services Source: Idaho Department of (not seasonally adjusted)

5 Construction Activity Construction activity in Boise was positive in the first quarter and continued to do well when compared to the prior year. Comparisons are focused on the prior year due to the seasonality of the data set. Compared to the first quarter of calendar year 2015, total permit revenue increased by $775.8k, or 45.2, total permit value increased by $82.3M, or 65.4, and total permit volume increased by 424 permits, or permits for the dwellings category (including single, duplex, and multiple family units) increased by 105 permits, or 61.8 compared to the prior year. Single family unit permits increased by 40 permits, or 28.2, compared to last year. The year over year growth in the single family permits is a reoccurring trend. Multiple family permits decreased by 57 permits, or 203.6, compared to last year. The dwellings other category (including remodels, additions, and garages) increased by 31 permits, or 9.5. Dwellings Source: Boise Construction - Quarter 1 Type of Permits Jan Jan '16 Feb Feb '16 Mar Mar '16 Single Family Duplex Multiple Dwellings Dwellings Other Commercial Construction Trade Permits 1,153 1,208 1,185 1,322 1,362 1,594 3,700 4,124 Q1 Q1 '16

6 Construction Activity (continued) Permit Revenue - Quarterly 2,800,000 2,400,000 2,493,658 2,615,799 2,465,768 2,000,000 2,343,065 2,234,752 2,146,999 1,906,031 1,600,000 1,717,849 1,573,267 1,663,921 1,726,607 1,200,000 1,429,771 1,365,496 Permit Value - Quarterly 250,000, ,040, ,636, ,229, ,000, ,946, ,000, ,000, ,389, ,997, ,779, ,538, ,606, ,387, ,382, ,788, ,534,682 50,000,000 Permit Volume - Quarterly 5,500 5,695 5,671 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 4,988 4,515 3,911 3,693 4,869 4,573 5,021 4,879 4,900 4,429 4,402 Source:

7 Number of Homes Housing Trends (latest available data) According to the latest Corelogic home price index (HPI) report in March, home prices for Idaho increased by 7.3 over last year, which is above the national average of 6.7. inventory increased by 11.4 over last year after a brief reduction during the slower winter period. Foreclosures remain at a reasonable level. Housing Trends 1, ,469 1,544 1,576 1,650 1,704 1,699 1,563 1,637 1,694 1,514 N/A 1,088 1, N/A 100 Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Foreclosures Inventory Source: and State Sales Tax The City shares sales tax revenue with the State and receives its portion on a quarterly basis. A total of 11.5 of gross sales tax collections is shared with cities across Idaho. The cities share of revenue is a function of relative property value and proportionate population. The chart below reflects the gross sales tax collected by the State. Gross sales tax collected in the first quarter increased by $19.7M, or 5.3, when compared to last year. Compared to the prior quarter, gross sales tax decreased by $8.5M, or 2.3, which is due to seasonality and is consistent with historical trends. The gross sales tax collection amount remains consistently higher than previous years. Gross Sales Tax - Quarterly 430,000, ,988, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,301, ,560, ,641, ,793, ,992, ,195, ,385, ,176, ,793, ,765, ,242, ,891, ,000,000 Source: Idaho State Tax Commission

8 Airport Passenger Traffic The number of air passengers can be a strong indicator of the global and local economic environment. During the first quarter, total passenger traffic increased by 83,298 passengers, or 12.9, compared to last year. Compared to the prior quarter, total passenger traffic decreased by 59,334, or Since the prior quarter includes normal holiday travel, a decrease between these quarters is seasonally typical. passenger traffic remains positive and has been positive on a year over year comparison since the quarter ending September ,000 Passenger Traffic - Quarterly 750, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Passenger Traffic - Monthly 280, , , , , , ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Department of Aviation, City of Boise