Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators. June 2012

Transcription

1 Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators June 212 Regional Economic Research Institute Lutgert College Of Business Phone Florida Gulf Coast University 151 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL

2 Table of Contents Introduction: National and Regional Background... 3 Airport Activity... 6 Chart 1: RSW Traffic Trend... 6 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Traffic Trend... 7 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Traffic Trend... 7 Tourism Tax Revenues... 8 Chart 4: Lee County Tourism Tax Revenues... 8 Chart 5: Collier County Tourism Tax Revenues... 9 Chart 6: Charlotte County Tourism Tax Revenues... 9 Single-Family Building Permits... 1 Chart 7: Lee County... 1 Chart 8: Collier County Chart 9: Charlotte County Taxable Sales Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties Chart 12: Lee County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier Chart 13: Collier County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier Chart 14: Charlotte County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Chart 15: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 16: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 17: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 18: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 19: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Sales of Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Chart 2: Lee County Chart 21: Collier County Chart 22: Charlotte County Consumer Confidence Index... 2 Chart 23: Consumer Confidence Index... 2 Consumer Price Index Chart 24: CPI Annual Percentage Change Chart 25: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Population Chart 26: Coastal Counties Growth 199 to Chart 27: Inland Counties Growth 199 to Chart 28: Projections by County

3 Contact Information: Dr. Gary Jackson, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support Phone: Introduction: National and Regional Background The most recent estimate for the first quarter U.S. Real GDP growth was released on June 28th and is 1.9 percent. Fourth quarter 211 growth was 3. percent while the third quarter grew more slowly at 1.8 percent. First quarter real personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.5 percent, compared to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 211. The national unemployment rate increased from 8.1 percent in April 212 to 8.2 percent in May 212. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) is 5.4 million or 42.8 percent of all unemployed. The May Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by only 69,, which was smaller than the April increase of 77,. The increases included 46, in education and health services, 35,6 in transportation and warehousing, 15, in wholesale trade, and 12, in manufacturing. Employment declined by 28, in construction, 13, in government, and 9, in leisure and hospitality. The national consumer price index for May 212 increased by only 1.7 percent over May 211, primarily driven by an increase of 4.4 percent in apparel costs, 3.9 percent in medical expenses, and a 2.8 percent in food prices. All items, less food and energy, rose by 2.3 percent. The latest statement of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) was issued on June 2 th, and is summarized below While the economy has been expanding moderately this year, growth in employment has slowed in recent months; The unemployment rate remains elevated; Business fixed investment has continued to advance; Household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year; Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed; Inflation has declined, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and the Committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability; Economic growth is expected to remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up very gradually; The unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate; Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks; 3

4 Percent The Committee decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities, as announced last September; The Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy, and to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at to ¼ percent; and The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 214. The next meeting of the FOMC is scheduled for July 31 st through August 1 st. The FOMC released its latest forecast on June 2, 212 and is shown below in the "box and whiskers" charts. The red boxes are the central tendency forecast and the full range of uncertainty is reflected in the whiskers, or vertical lines. The chart below shows that recovery started in 29, but it is expected to be several years before the economy returns to a more normal long-run trend ( LR ). Real GDP growth projections for 212, 213, and 214 show a recovery but there remains considerable uncertainty as to how strong the recovery will be, as shown by the wide range of forecasts. For 212, the overall projected range is 1.6 to 2.5 percent with a central tendency (red bar) range of 1.9 to 2.4 percent growth. For 213, the overall projected range is 2.2 to 3.5 percent with a central tendency range of 2.2 to 2.8 percent growth. For 214, the overall projected range is 2.8 to 4. percent with a central tendency range of 3. to 3.5 percent growth. The long-run trend for Real GDP has a range of 2.2 to 3. percent growth with a central tendency of 2.3 to 2.5 percent. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year Growth of U.S. Real GDP Longer run Year Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, June 2, 212. As shown in the chart below, the 212 national unemployment rate is expected to be lower than in 211, but remain historically high, in a range of 7.8 to 8.4 percent, with a central tendency of 8. to 8.2 percent. For 213, the overall projected range for the national unemployment rate is 7. to 8.1 percent with a central tendency range of 7.5 to 8. percent. For 214, the overall projected range for the national unemployment rate is 6.3 to 7.7 percent with a central tendency range of 7. to 7.7 percent. 4

5 Percent Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 4.9 to 6.3 percent with a central tendency of 5.2 to 6. percent. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year. 11. Unemployment Rate LR 4.9 Year Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, June 2, 212. The Southwest Florida economy continues to show some year-over-year gains in tourism and consumer purchases which are positive signs. Regional taxable sales rose by five percent from March 211 to March 212. Although tourism tax collections decreased by two percent in Lee County, they increased by six percent in Collier County, and by two percent in Charlotte County from April 211 to April 212. However, April 212 passenger traffic at Southwest Florida International Airport decreased by 13 percent from April 211. This reflects higher airline ticket prices and fewer flights. Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates have fallen from prior year levels, but remain high and show little change from the prior month of April 212. Lee County's unemployment rate declined from 11.3 percent in May 211 to 9.2 percent in May 212. Collier County's unemployment rate declined from 1.4 percent in May 211 to 8.4 percent in May 212. Charlotte County's unemployment rate has fallen from 11. percent in May 211 to 9.2 percent in May 212. National economic growth is expected to be positive this year but below the long-term growth rate of three percent. Issues related to the Federal budget, state budgets, European sovereign debt issues, income and estate tax uncertainties, and oil prices are likely to create some headwinds. RERI thanks all of the individuals and organizations that have helped to bring together the regional information for this report. These include the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the REALTORS of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 5

6 Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Airport Activity Airport passenger activity is defined as the sum of arrivals and departures for each of Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. Total passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports declined to 934,94 in April 212, down 23 percent from March 212 and 14 percent lower than April 211. Chart 1 shows RSW passenger activity of 79,322 in April 212, a 23-percent drop from March 212 and 13 percent lower than April 211. Sarasota passenger activity was 135,275 in April 212, a decrease of 21-percent from the prior month and six percent below April 211, as shown in Chart 2. Punta Gorda Airport s April 212 passenger activity of 9,343 represented a 65-percent decrease from March 212, and a 74-percent decrease from the April 211 figure, as shown in Chart 3. These decreases are primarily attributable to the discontinuation of service by Direct Air. 11 Chart 1: RSW Traffic Trend RSW (SW Florida International) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 6

7 Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 225 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Traffic Trend SRQ (Sarasota Bradenton Int'l) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 5 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Traffic Trend PGD (Punta Gorda Airport) Passenger Arrivals plus Departures Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 7

8 Tax Revenue - $ Thousands Tourism Tax Revenues Tourism tax revenues for the three coastal counties are shown in Charts 4, 5, and 6, based on month of occupancy. Lee County revenues for April 212 were $2,383,562, two-percent below April 211. Collier County Tourism tax revenues were $1,437,632, six-percent higher than April 211. Similarly, Charlotte County s tourism tax revenues were $119,23 in April 212, a two-percent increase over April 211. Total tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties in April 212 increased by $33,547 (one percent) over April , Chart 4: Lee County Tourism Tax Revenues Lee County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue , 5, 4, 3, , 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 8

9 Tax Revenue - $ Thousands Tax Revenue - $ Thousands 3, Chart 5: Collier County Tourism Tax Revenues Collier County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue ,5 2, 1, , 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 4 Chart 6: Charlotte County Tourism Tax Revenues Charlotte County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 9

10 22 Av 23 Av 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av May 211 Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Permits Issued (Logarithmic Scale) Single-Family Building Permits Lee County reported 161 single-family building permits issued in May 212, an increase of 37 from April 212, and 39 more than in May 211, as shown in Chart 7 (which employs a logarithmic scale on its y- axis to more clearly portray long-term trends). Collier County issued 125 permits in May 212, up from 94 in April 212, and from 14 in May 211, as shown in Chart 8. Charlotte County permits declined to 22 in May, six fewer than in April 212, and down from the 34 permits issued in May 211, as shown in Chart 9. A total of 38 single-family permits were issued by the three coastal counties in May 212, up 25 percent from the April 212 figure of 246, and 18 percent higher than the 26 total of May 211. Data from Hendry County indicate that 6 single-family building permits were issued between January May 212, compared with 12 permits in the first five months of 211. Chart 7: Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 1 Permits Trend 1 1 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. 1

11 22 Av 23 Av 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av May 211 Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Permits Issued 22 Av 23 Av 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av May 211 Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Permits Issued Chart 8: Collier County 35 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend Permits Trend 1 5 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. Chart 9: Charlotte County 25 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend Permits Trend 5 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. 11

12 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Taxable Sales - $ Millions Taxable Sales Taxable sales figures track consumer spending, an important component of the regional economy. The following charts show the latest month of merchants collections (March 212), rather than the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. All three coastal counties reported higher taxable sales in March 212 compared to March 211, a total gain of $12.4 million, or five percent. Coastal County taxable sales trends are shown in Chart 1. Charlotte County s taxable sales of $28.9 million in March 212 were four-percent higher than the March 211 figure. Lee County taxable sales rose to $1,95.1 million in March 212, a five-percent increase over March 211, while Collier County's taxable sales amounted to $686.1 million in March 212, a six-percent increase over March 211. Hendry County s taxable sales of $28.5 million in March were up 11 percent over March 211. Glades County reported March 212 taxable sales of $2.3 million, a two-percent decrease from March 211. Taxable sales trends for Hendry and Glades Counties are shown in Chart 11. Charts 12, 13, and 14 depict changes in taxable sales from the same month a year earlier. Lee County has shown positive year-over-year comparisons for twenty-one consecutive months; Collier County, for the last nineteen months. Charlotte County s taxable sales growth has been positive since October ,2 Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties Coastal County Taxable Sales 22 to Present Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months' Data 1, Lee 1,42 1, Collier Monthly Avg Charlotte Most recent 13 months Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 12

13 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Taxable Sales - $ Millions 4 35 Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties Inland County Taxable Sales 22 to Present Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months' Data Hendry Monthly Avg Glades Most recent 13 months Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 12: Lee County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier 12% Lee County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 13

14 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Chart 13: Collier County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier Collier County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 14: Charlotte County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier 1% Charlotte County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 14

15 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 15, 16, 17, 18, and 19 show total persons employed, unemployed, and the unemployment rate for each county in the region from January 25 to May 212, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Seasonal adjustments show long-term trends more clearly. Unemployment rates above five or six percent generally reflect cyclical unemployment and a slowdown of the economy from long-run trends. May 212 seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates in the five reporting counties all showed improvement, compared to May 211. For the five counties in total, the unemployment rate has declined from 11.1 percent in May 211 to 9.1 percent in May 212. Lee County's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 9.2 percent in May 212, unchanged from April 212, and down from 11.3 percent in May 211. Collier County s unemployment rate declined to 8.4 percent in May 212, down from April s 8.6 percent, and two percentage points lower than May 211. Charlotte County had a May 212 unemployment rate of 9.2 percent, the same figure as April 212, and 1.8 percentage points below the May 211 figure. Hendry s unemployment rate remained steady at 13.8 percent in May, the same figure as reported for April 212, and 1.1 percentage points lower than May 211. The unemployment rate in Glades County was 9.6 percent in May 212, showing no change from April 212, but down from 1.2 percent in May 211. Total employment in the five reporting counties increased by 1,485 persons (two percent) over May 211, while the number of unemployed dropped by 1,487, indicating essentially no change in the size of the total workforce. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the state of Florida has decreased from 1.6 percent in May 211 to 8.6 percent in May 212, its lowest level since December 28. The national unemployment rate has declined from 9. percent in May 211 to 8.2 percent in May 212, which represents a slight increase from the April 212 figure of 8.1 percent. Chart 15: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment 35 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Lee County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate 2.. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 15

16 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 16: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Collier County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 17: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment 8 7 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Charlotte County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 16

17 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 18: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Hendry County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 19: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment 6 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Glades County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate 2.. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 17

18 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Dec 21 Jan 211 Feb 211 Mar 211 Apr 211 May 211 Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Number of Homes Sold by Realtors Median Sale Price - Thousands Sales of Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Combined sales of single-family homes in the coastal counties amounted to 1,938 units in May 212, a decrease of two percent from the prior month, and six percent below the May 211 figure. Median single-family home prices in the three counties continue to show increases, compared to a year ago. There were 1,154 Realtor sales in Lee County in May 212 at a median price of $144,111, down from 1,166 sales in April 212 at a median price of $142,. Sales declined by 14 percent from the 1,338 reported in May 211, although the median price showed a substantial increase from $114,9. Collier County had 468 single-family home sales in May 212, an increase of 9 percent from April 212 and up twelve percent from 417 in May 211. The median price increased to $255, in May 212 from $25, in May 211, but showed a modest decline from $258, in April 212. Charlotte County reported 316 single-family home sales in May 212 at a median price of $124,, up four percent from 35 sales in May 211 at a median price of $11,7, but down 19 percent from 388 sales in April 212 at a median price of $116, Chart 2: Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors $ Lee Homes Sold by Realtors Lee Median Sale Price $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Source: Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. 18

19 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Dec 21 Jan 211 Feb 211 Mar 211 Apr 211 May 211 Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Number of Homes Sold by Realtors Median Sale Price - Thousands Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Dec 21 Jan 211 Feb 211 Mar 211 Apr 211 May 211 Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Number of Homes Sold by Realtors Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 21: Collier County Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors Collier Homes Sold by Realtors Collier Median Sale Price $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR) Chart 22: Charlotte County 45 Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors $ $12 $1 $ Charlotte Homes Sold by Realtors Charlotte Median Sale Price $6 $4 $2 $ Source: Florida Realtors Punta Gorda, Florida MSA ; 19

20 May-9 Aug-9 Nov-9 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Consumer Confidence Index Chart 23 shows monthly data for the last three years, as well as 12-month moving average trend lines for both the Florida Consumer Confidence Index ( CCI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. The national ICS for May 212 rose to 79.3, a 2.9-point increase from April 212, and a five-point increase over May 211. Their May 25 Surveys of Consumers report notes in part: Consumer confidence improved in each of the past nine monthly surveys, rising to its highest level since October 27. More favorable job and wage prospects were the main factors behind the improved outlook. Record numbers of consumers mentioned that they heard of favorable employment trends despite the jobs slowdown recently reported by the Labor Department. The Florida Consumer Confidence Index for May rose to 77, up three points from the April figure, and nine points higher than May 211. This is a welcome turnaround in consumer confidence, said Chris McCarty, the Survey Director. The rise in confidence in May was particularly strong among those under age 6 and those with household incomes above $3,. The largest component to rise was expectations about personal finances a year from now which rose eleven points for higher income households. While some aspects of the economy are showing improvement, this is a strange result given the potential fiscal cliff due at the beginning of 213 that is now being reported in the news. Chart 23: Consumer Confidence Index 1 Florida and US Consumer Confidence Data Most Recent 3 Years and Trend FL CCI US ICS FL CCI Trend US ICS Trend 5 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan 2

21 Change From Year Earlier Consumer Price Index Consumer price indices (CPI) for the nation, the region, and the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area are shown in Chart 24. As reported last month, the most recent release covers data through April 212, and shows some moderation of consumer price growth. From April 211 to April 212, the National CPI increased by 2.3 percent, the Southern Region CPI increased by 2.5 percent, and the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area CPI rose by 2. percent. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee reports that it continues to pay close attention to the inflation rate and inflationary expectations. Chart 24: CPI Annual Percentage Change 8.% Consumer Price Index Monthly Data - Change From Year Earlier Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National 6.% 4.% 2.%.% -2.% Apr-3 Apr-4 Apr-5 Apr-6 Apr-7 Apr-8 Apr-9 Apr-1 Apr-11 Apr-12 Source: BLS The components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending April 212 are shown in Chart 25. The largest increases were shown in the categories of apparel (1.9 percent), transportation (5.1 percent), medical care (3.5 percent), and food & beverage (up 3. percent). 21

22 Chart 25: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending April 212 Apparel Transportation Medical care Food and beverages Housing Education and communication Other goods and services * Recreation * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 12% 14% Source: BLS 12 Month Percentage Change Population The following charts reflect the most recent county population forecasts released by the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Population growth from 199 to 21 is shown in Charts 26 and 27. Collier County grew at an average annual compound growth rate of 3.8 percent from 199 to 21. Lee County s population grew at an annual rate of 3.1 percent. Charlotte, Glades, and Hendry Counties had average annual rates of population growth between 1.8 and 2.7 percent per year. Chart 28 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 215 to 24. The overall rate of regional growth averages 1.6 percent per year for this period, resulting in a 25-year increase of 47 percent. 22

23 Population - Thousands Population - Thousands 7 Chart 26: Coastal Counties Growth 199 to 21 Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties Lee Collier Charlotte Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, January 21 and the Florida Demographic Database, August Chart 27: Inland Counties Growth 199 to 21 Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 4 35 Hendry Glades Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, January 21 and the Florida Demographic Database, August 21 23

24 Populaton (Thousands) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Chart 28: Projections by County Population Projections Glades 13,7 14,7 15,6 16,5 17,3 18, Hendry 4,2 41,5 42,8 44,1 45,2 46,4 Charlotte 167,5 176,3 184,9 192,7 2, 26,7 Collier 35,2 384,4 418, 449,7 479, 56,3 Lee 694,2 779,8 863,3 942,7 1,16,9 1,86,6 Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, January 21 and the Florida Demographic Database, August 21. Updated October