June 2015 Lutgert College Of Business FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL Phone

Transcription

1 Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators June 215 Lutgert College Of Business 151 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL Phone

2 Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background... 3 Airport Passenger Activity... 7 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity... 7 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity... 8 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity... 8 Tourist Tax Revenues... 9 Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties... 9 Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA... 1 Single-Family Building Permits... 1 Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County Taxable Sales Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 2: Consumer Sentiment Index Consumer Price Index... 2 Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Population Chart 23: Coastal Counties Population Growth 199 to Chart 24: Inland Counties Population Growth 199 to Chart 25: Population Projections by County

3 Dr. Chris Westley, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Copyright 215 FGCU - All rights reserved. Introduction: Regional and National Background A revised first quarter real GDP estimate indicated U.S. economic output fell.7 percent, and although there are concerns about data collection problems resulting in weaker-than-average first quarter measures for GDP in recent years, the general consensus is that the higher-than-expected trade deficit contributed to the revision. In the third and fourth quarters of 214, GDP increased 5. and 2.2 percent, respectively. In contrast, the Southwest Florida economy continued to exhibit strong growth in June compared to last year. In general, the regional economic data suggest an economy still in a strong recovery mode as we move into a slower summer season. While the second quarter GDP figures for 215 are expected to show improvement, the national economy continues to exhibit conflicting signals, with strong monthly jobs reports and wage pressure associated with the boom phase of the business cycle, coupled with weak manufacturing output. Meanwhile, statements emanating from the recent Federal Reserve s Open Market Committee meeting (see below) reiterated its intention to begin a slow, calculated process to raise short-term rates and inch away from the zero-bound interest rate policy it has maintained since December 28. Seasonally-adjusted regional taxable sales for March 215 were up 1 percent ($174 million) over March 214. Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues were up nine percent for the region encompassing Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties. April 215 passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports was four percent higher than the April 214 figure. Continuing the positive trend, Realtor sales of existing single-family homes for the three coastal counties in May 215 were up two percent over May 214, along with substantial increases in median prices. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the five-county region was 5.6 percent in May 215 compared to 6.4 percent a year earlier, while Florida s unemployment rate amounted to 5.7 percent in May 215, down from 6.3 percent in May 214. The national unemployment rate in May 215 was 5.5 percent, down from 6.3 percent in May 214. The May 215 national, state, and regional unemployment rates were each.1 points higher than the previous month. The number of long-term unemployed in the U.S. (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) was 2.5 million in May 215, which is a 25.3 percent decrease from May 214 and 28.6 percent of all unemployed. The May Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 28, for the month, an increase of 59, from April. Employment growth nationally averaged 251, per month over the last 12 months. The May employment increases included 74, in education and health services, 63, in professional and business services, 57, in leisure and hospitality, 31,4 in retail trade, 18, in government, 17, in construction, 13,1 in transportation 3

4 and warehousing, 13, in financial activities, 7, in manufacturing, 4,1 in wholesale trade, and 2, for other services. April decreases in employment included 3, in information (media). The national consumer price index (CPI) increased in May by.4 percentage points. The shelter index (rental equivalence measure for homeowner costs) has risen 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. Medical care services increased 2.5 percent, and energy prices decreased 16.3 percent. Core inflation (all items less food and energy) increased by 1.7 percent. National housing prices increased 5. percent for the 2- city composite S & P Case-Shiller Home Price Index in the 12 months ending March 215. The latest statement of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) was issued on June 17th. Its key points included the following: Economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter; Household spending growth has been moderate, and the housing sector has shown some improvement; Inflation continues to run below the Committee s longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, while survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable;; Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term; The Committee anticipates that it will raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2-percent objective over the medium term; When it begins to remove policy accommodation, the Committee will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer-run. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, 215. The FOMC released its latest quarterly forecast for real GDP and the unemployment rate on June 17, 215, as shown in the following "box and whiskers" charts. The red boxes are the central tendency forecast, and the full range of uncertainty is reflected in the whiskers, or vertical lines. The June forecast was similar to the March forecast but reflects slightly less optimistic growth and unemployment estimates for 215. The GDP chart shows the recovery that started in 29 and that the current projections are close to the normal long-run trend ( LR ). For 215, the overall projected range is 1.7 to 2.3 percent with a central tendency range of 1.8 to 2. percent. For 216, the overall projected range is 2.3 to 3. percent with a central tendency range of 2.4 to 2.7 percent. For 217, the overall projected range is 2. to 2.5 percent with a central tendency range of 2.1 to 2.5 percent. The long-run trend for real GDP has a range of 1.8 to 2.5 percent growth with a central tendency range of 2. to 2.3 percent. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year. 4

5 Percent 4. Growth of U.S Real GDP LR Year Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 18, 215. As shown in the following chart, the U.S. unemployment rate has continued to decline. For 215, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 5. to 5.3 percent with a central tendency range of 5.2 to 5.3 percent. For 216, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.6 to 5.2 percent with a central tendency range of 4.9 to 5.1 percent. For 217, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.8 to 5.5 percent with a central tendency range of 4.9 to 5.1 percent. Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 5. to 5.8 percent with a central tendency of 5. to 5.2 percent. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year. 5

6 Percent U.S. Unemployment Rate LR Year Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, June 17, 215. The director and staff of RERI extend their sincere thanks and appreciation to the individuals and organizations who contribute to this report. These include the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the Realtors of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 6

7 Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. In April 215, passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports amounted to 1,16,227, a fourpercent increase over April 214. All three facilities reported year-to-date improvement over the prior period, resulting in a total increase of over 252, passengers (6 percent) in the four-month period ending on April 3. Chart 1 shows Southwest Florida International Airport passenger activity of 92,669 in April 215, a four-percent increase over April 214. Sarasota Bradenton Airport recorded 128,564 passengers in April 215, a six-percent increase over April 214, as shown in Chart 2. Punta Gorda passenger activity rose to 74,994 in April 215, up four percent over April 214, as shown in Chart 3. 1,2 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity SW Florida International Airport (RSW) Passenger Activity 1,1 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 7

8 Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 175 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity Sarasota Bradenton Int'l Airport (SRQ) Passenger Activity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 1 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity Punta Gorda Airport (PGD) Passenger Activity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 8

9 Monthly Tourst Tax Revenue - Millions Tourist Tax Revenues Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties showed substantial gains, increasing by over $417, in April 215 compared to April 214, as shown in Charts 4 and 5. The figures below are based on month of occupancy. Collier County s seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues rose to $1,779,357, an eight-percent increase over April 214. Lee County seasonally-adjusted revenues amounted to $2,989,32 in April 215, up nine percent over April 214. Seasonally adjusted revenues for Charlotte County in April 215 were up 14 percent over April 214. Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties Tourist Tax Revenue 211 to Present: 3 Coastal Counties Total Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 9

10 Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue - $ Millions Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA 4. County Tourist Tax Revenue to present Lee Collier 1..5 Charlotte. Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports Single-Family Building Permits Single-family building permits in the three coastal counties totaled 654 in May 215, an increase of 155 permits (31 percent) over May 214, and 12 fewer than April 215. Lee County issued 347 permits in May 215, up 38 percent over May 214, as shown in Chart 6. In May 215, Collier County reported 252 permits, 25 percent more than May 214, as shown in Chart 7. Charlotte County issued 55 permits in May 215, an increase of 22 percent over May 214, as shown in Chart 8. Hendry County has issued seven permits through May 215, compared to five during the first five months of

11 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Permits Issued 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Permits Issued (Logarithmic Scale) Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 1 Permits Linear Trend 1 1 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County 35 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend Permits Linear Trend Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. 11

12 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Permits Issued Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County 25 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend Permits Linear Trend 5 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending based on the latest month of merchants collections; i.e., one month earlier than the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. Chart 9 shows both seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted taxable sales for the region. The five counties in Southwest Florida had total seasonally-adjusted taxable sales of $1,956.3 million in March 215, an increase of 1 percent (or $174.4 million) over March 214. Charts 1 and 11 show seasonally-adjusted taxable sales for the coastal and inland counties, respectively. Lee County s taxable sales increased from $969.2 million in March 214 to $1,69.5 million in March 215, a 1-percent increase. Collier County s taxable sales increased from $6.5 million to $657. million, an increase of nine percent over the same month last year. Charlotte County s taxable sales grew by eight percent from $182.7 million in March 214 to $197.5 million in March 215. Hendry County s taxable sales were up 11 percent from $25.6 million in March 214 to $28.4 million in March 215. Taxable sales in Glades County fell two percent from March 214 to $3.4 million in March 215. All cited data are seasonally-adjusted. 12

13 Monthly Taxabkle Sales - $ Millions Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Billons Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region 3. Taxable Sales 211 to Present - 5 County Region Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data. Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties 1,2 Coastal County Taxable Sales to Present 1, 8 Lee 6 Collier 4 2 Charlotte All Data Seasonally Adjusted Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 13

14 Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Millions Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties 35 Inland County Taxable Sales to Present 3 Hendry All Data Seasonally Adjusted 1 5 Glades Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts show total persons employed and unemployed, and the unemployment rate, for each county from January 25 to May 215, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for our five-county region was 5.6 percent in May 215, down from 6.4 percent in May 214. The regional improvement is attributed to an increase of 3,826 in the seasonally-adjusted number of employed, and a decrease of 4,18 unemployed from May 214 to May 215. Lee County's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate amounted to 5.4 percent in May 215, down from 6.2 percent in May 214 and.1 point above the April 215 figure, as shown in Chart 12. Collier County s unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in May 215, down from 6.1 percent in May 214 and.1 point above the April 215 level, as shown in Chart 13. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Charlotte County was 6.2 percent in May 215, the same as April 215, and below the 6.9 percent of May 214, as shown in Chart 14. Hendry County s May 215 unemployment rate was 9.4 percent, down from 1.7 percent in May 214, but.5 percent higher than April 215, as shown in Chart 15. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Glades County was 7.1 percent in May 215, compared to 7.4 percent in May 214 and 6.6 percent in April 215, as shown in Chart 16. Florida s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate inched up to 5.7 percent in May 215 from 5.6 percent in April, albeit down from 6.3 percent in May 214. Compared to one year ago, the number of workers employed in Florida grew by 268,5. A similar pattern was observed nationally, as the seasonally- 14

15 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent adjusted unemployment rate has moved from 6.3 percent in May 214 to 5.4 percent in April 215 to 5.5 percent in May 215. Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment 35 Labor Force and Unemployment: Lee County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate 2.. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Labor Force and Unemployment: Collier County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 15

16 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Labor Force and Unemployment: Charlotte County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Labor Force and Unemployment: Hendry County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 16

17 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment 7 Labor Force and Unemployment: Glades County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Existing single-family home sales by a Realtor for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties are shown in Charts The line represents median prices against the scale on the right side, and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. In May 215, 2,196 single-family homes were sold in the three coastal counties, up two percent over May 214, and six percent below the prior month of April 215. Lee County sales amounted to 1,38 units in May 215, an increase of one percent over May 214, along with an 11-percent increase in the median price to $217,25 over the same period. Collier County singlefamily home sales were 43 units in May 215, down from 454 in May 214 and from 496 in April 215. However, the median price in Collier County rose to $427, in May 215, compared to $359, in May 214. Charlotte County reported 458 single-family homes sold in in May 215, up 11 percent over May 214, along with a 1-percent increase in the median price over the same period. 17

18 Jun 213 Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Jun 213 Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 16 $ $ $15 $1 4 2 Lee Homes Sold Lee Median Sale Price $5 $ Source: Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County 6 Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales* by Realtors $ $4 $35 $3 3 2 $25 $2 $15 1 Collier Homes Sold Collier Median Sale Price $1 $5 $ * Does not include Marco Island. Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR) 18

19 Jun 213 Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors Charlotte Homes Sold Charlotte Median Sale Price $2 $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Source: Florida Realtors Punta Gorda, Florida MSA; Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 2 shows monthly data and linear trend lines over the last three years for both the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. Despite declines in May 215, the long-term trend continues to be positive for both indices. The national ICS was down 5.2 points to 9.7 in May 215 compared to April 215, but 8.8 points above the May 214 figure. The May 29, 215 Survey of Consumers noted that Consumer optimism retreated in May as consumers adopted more modest prospects for a rebound following the economy s dismal 1st quarter performance. The decline was widespread among all age and income subgroups as well as across all parts of the country. Despite the May decline, the Sentiment Index has averaged 94.6 during the first five months of 215. The last year that the Sentiment Index was higher was 24, when it averaged The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 87.6 in May 215, down 7.1 points from the April 215 figure, albeit 1.1 points higher than the May 214 figure. In the May 29, 215 Florida Consumer Sentiment Index, it was noted by Chris McCarty, the Survey Director that [m]ost of the pessimism in May stems from expectations about future conditions. Perceptions of current finances remained largely unchanged across age and income groups. But younger and lower income respondents see difficult times over the next year in terms of their personal finances. Meanwhile older and higher income respondents are pessimistic about U.S. economic conditions over the next year. The largest overall decline was in the component measuring 19

20 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years among older respondents. That component fell by more than 2 points. One theory is that consumers are expecting prices to rise over the next year and are anticipating being worse off because of this. Some of this is based on concerns over the money that has been created by the Federal Reserve as an intervention after the Great Recession. Chart 2: Consumer Sentiment Index 1 Florida and US Consumer Sentiment Indices Most Recent 3 Years and Linear Trend FL CSI FL CSI Trend US ICS US ICS Trend 5 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Price Index As reported last month, year-to-year changes in consumer price indices (CPI) through April 215 are shown in Chart 21. As previously noted, consumer price inflation has moderated noticeably. The latest data shows that the April 215 National CPI was.2 percent below the April 214 figure, while the U.S. Southern Region CPI actually decreased by.6 percent in that same 12-month period. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale CPI increased by.5 percent between April 214 and April

21 Change From Year Earlier Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change 8% Consumer Price Index - Percentage Change From Year Earlier 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National -6% Feb-6 Feb-7 Feb-8 Feb-9 Feb-1 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Source: BLS Chart 22 shows the components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending April 215. The largest increase since April 214 was in other goods and services (8.5 percent); housing was up 3.5 percent from the prior year. Lower gasoline prices contributed to an 11.1-percent reduction in the transportation segment, while apparel costs dropped by 5.9 percent. Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending April 215 Other goods and services * Housing Medical care Food and beverages Education and Communication Recreation Apparel Transportation * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. -12% -1% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Source: BLS 12 Month Percentage Change 21

22 Population - Thousands Population As previously reported, the following charts show historic population growth as well as population projections recently updated by the Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR) working with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Regional population growth from 199 to 213 averaged 2.8 percent per year and is shown in Charts 23 and 24. The compound average annual rate of growth for 199 to 213 was 3.5 percent in Collier County, 2.9 percent in Lee, 2.2 percent in Glades County, and 1.7 percent each in Charlotte and Hendry Counties. Chart 25 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 215 to 24. The regional projected population growth averages a slower 1.5 percent per year, resulting in a population increase of 5 percent for the five-county region from 213 to 24. The total 5-county population projection is 1,79,74 for 24. Lee County population is projected to grow an average of 1.8 percent per year, Collier County at 1.4 percent, and Charlotte County at.8 percent per year. Hendry County s population is projected to grow at an average of.3 percent per year and Glades County at.8 percent per year. Chart 23: Coastal Counties Population Growth 199 to Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties Lee Collier Charlotte Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April

23 Populaton (Thousands) Population - Thousands Chart 24: Inland Counties Population Growth 199 to Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 4 35 Hendry Glades Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April , 1,8 Chart 25: Population Projections by County Population Projections ,6 1,4 1,2 1, Glades 12,894 13,478 14,11 14,496 14,89 15,227 Hendry 38,121 39,31 39,741 4,275 4,67 4,892 Charlotte 166,34 174,121 18, , , ,729 Collier 345,1 379,59 411, ,93 47,69 492,533 Lee 673, , , ,479 98,632 1,44,323 Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April