Arkansas Economic Outlook

Transcription

1 Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference 2011 Arkansas Economic Outlook Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR November 2, 2011

2 Arkansas Experience Arkansas fared relatively well during the recession Coincident Indexes of Economic Activity 100 Index, 2007Q4= U.S. Arkansas Source: Federal Reseve Bank of Philadelphia... but the recovery has been faltering.

3 Arkansas Experience Economic conditions in the U.S. and Arkansas appear to be deteriorating in 2011 Waning consumer confidence Political uncertainty Gasoline price spike Spring storms and flooding, summer drought

4 Topics Output/GDP Personal Income Retail Sales Real Estate Labor Markets

5 GDP by State, 2010 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

6 GDP by MSA Real GDP by Metropolitan Area, Percent change * 2010 Rank* Fayetteville Springdale Rogers, AR MO Fort Smith, AR OK Hot Springs, AR Jonesboro, AR Little Rock North Little Rock Conway, AR Memphis, TN MS AR Pine Bluff, AR Texarkana, TX Texarkana, AR *Advance statistics Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

7 Personal Income

8 Personal Income 106 Personal Income (Seasonally Adjusted) Index, 2008:Q2= Arkansas U.S :Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

9 Personal Income 26% 24% 22% Transfer Receipts as Percent of Personal Income Arkansas 20% 18% 16% U.S. 14% 12% 10% (Dashed lines include ARRA transfers.) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

10 Personal Income 106 Personal Income less Transfer Receipts (Seasonally Adjusted) Index, 2008Q3= Arkansas U.S :Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

11 Personal Income Personal Income In Arkansas Metropolitan Areas Area Percent change from preceding period Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Percent change ranking p p Metropolitan portion of the United States Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers Fort Smith Hot Springs Jonesboro Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway Memphis Pine Bluff Texarkana

12 Taxable Sales 13.0 Arkansas Taxable Sales (Seasonally Adjusted) Quarterly, Billions of Dollars Percent Changes: 2010Q2: +2.6% 2010Q3: +0.7% 2010Q4: 0.6% 2011Q1: +0.4% 2011Q2: 0.6% Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Constructed by the Institute for Economic Advancement using data on sales and use tax collections from the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration.

13 Taxable Sales 4.50 Arkansas Gasoline Price Dollars per gallon Source: Oil Price Information Service

14 Taxable Sales Introducing: Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) 14.0 Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (Seasonally Adjusted) Quarterly, Billions of Dollars Including Gasoline Not Including Gasoline Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

15 Taxable Sales Introducing: Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) 14.0 Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (Seasonally Adjusted) Quarterly, Billions of Dollars Including Gasoline Not Including Gasoline Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

16 Taxable Sales Index, 2005= U.S. Retail Sales and ATSIG (Seasonally Adjusted) U.S. Retail Sales Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Source: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Institute for Economic Advancement.

17 Home Sales 3,200 2,800 Homes sold in Arkansas by Realtors (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Nov Apr ,400 2,000 1,600 1, Jul Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Source: Arkansas Realtors Association

18 Home Sales 3,200 Homes sold in Arkansas by Realtors (Seasonally Adjusted) 2,800 Nov Apr ,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 Jul Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Sources: Arkansas Realtors Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.

19 Home Sales 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 Homes sold in Arkansas by Realtors (Quarterly Data, Seasonally Adjusted) Sources: Arkansas Realtors Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.

20 Home Prices 110 FHFA House Prices (All Transactions Indexes) 105 Index, 2006:Q1= U.S. Arkansas :Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

21 Home Prices 110 FHFA House Prices (All Transactions Indexes) 105 Index, 2006:Q1= U.S. Arkansas Little Rock Fayetteville :Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

22 Home Prices FHFA House Price Changes (All Transactions Indexes) Percent Changes* 1 quarter 1 year 2 years 5 years Fayetteville Springdale Rogers Fort Smith Hot Springs Jonesboro Little Rock N. Little Rock Conway Memphis Pine Bluff Texarkana Arkansas United States *Percent changes to 2011:Q2. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

23 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

24 Employment Arkansas Nonfarm Payroll Employment - September 2011* Employment changes (thousands of jobs) from: Month Ago Year Ago Feb Dec Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Services Financial Services Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Services Other Services Government TOTAL * Seasonally adjusted data. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

25 Employment Employment Changes in Arkansas Metro Areas, September 2011 Percentage change from: Month ago Year ago Feb 2010 Dec 2007 Fayetteville Springdale Rogers Fort Smith Hot Springs Jonesboro Little Rock N. Little Rock Conway Memphis Pine Bluff Texarkana Arkansas U.S (Seasonally adjusted data) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

26 Employment 1,220 Arkansas NFPE Forecasted Revisions 1,210 1,200 Thousands 1,190 1,180 1,170 1,160 1,150 1,140 As Published Expected Revision 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Institute for Economic Advancement

27 Unemployment Rates 11 Unemployment Rates, Arkansas and U.S. 10 Percent U.S. Arkansas 5 4 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

28 Unemployment Rates Unemployment Rates for Arkansas Metro Areas, Jan Sep (Seasonally Adjusted*) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement. Pine Bluff Memphis Hot Springs Fort Smith Texarkana Jonesboro Little Rock Fayetteville

29 Economic Outlook "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Niels Bohr, Nobel prize winning physicist.

30 Real GDP Arkansas Real GDP Growth 4% 3% 2.7% 2.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8% 2% 1% 0.7% 0% 0.1% 1% 2% 1.5% * 2012* 2012* * Forecasts

31 Personal Income 115 Arkansas Personal Income (Seasonally Adjusted) Q4/Q4 Growth (%) Quarterly, Billions of dollars (SAAR) Actual Forecast Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

32 Sales 15.0 Arkansas Taxable Sales (Including Gasoline) (Seasonally Adjusted) Q4/Q4 Growth (%) Quarterly, Billions of dollars (SAAR) Actual Forecast Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

33 Home Sales Sales (Pct. Change) K 0.4% 23.6K 4.4% 23.4K 0.8% 26.3K +12.6% 27.5K +4.3% Quarterly Sales 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Homes sold in Arkansas by Realtors Actual Forecast

34 Employment Q4/Q4 Growth M 4.1% +0.70M +0.5% +1.37M +1.1% +1.26M +1.0% Millions U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Seasonally Adjusted) M +1.7% 126 Actual Forecast Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

35 Employment Q4/Q4 Growth K 3.2% +15.1K +1.3% +4.6K +0.4% +15.3K +1.3% Thousands 1,220 1,210 1,200 1,190 1,180 1,170 1,160 Arkansas Payroll Employment (Seasonally Adjusted) K +1.5% 1,150 Actual Forecast 1, Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

36 Employment Q4/Q4 Growth K 3.1% +9.1K +0.8% 1.4K 0.2% +15.3K +1.3% Thousands 1,220 1,210 1,200 1,190 1,180 1,170 1,160 Arkansas Payroll Employment (Seasonally Adjusted) Including expected revision in K +1.5% 1,150 Actual Forecast 1, Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

37 Unemployment 11 U.S. Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) End of Year (Q4) Percent Actual Forecast Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

38 Unemployment 9 Arkansas Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) End of Year (Q4) Percent Actual Forecast Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

39 Arkansas Economist For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist: