Outlook for the Texas Economy. Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. June 29, 2016
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1 Outlook for the Texas Economy Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. June 29, 2016 Research Economist Texas Gas Association
2 Contents 1. Economic Outlook 2. Housing Market 3. Challenges and Issues
3 During the last two years, economic conditions have deteriorated U.S. and advanced nations are stuck in a slow recovery, emerging economies are decelerating, and global trade is stagnant The medium-term outlook is for low commodity prices Doubts and concerns on monetary policy and divergences among developed countries are present Worries over China persist, while uncertainty is rising on geopolitical issues Heightened risk aversion is causing volatility in financial markets and discouraging business investment
4 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 In this difficult environment, Texas has maintained moderate growth Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index (Index Jan 2007 = 100) Business Cycle Index Leading Index (Right Axis) Note: Composite Index of 3 Coincident Indicators (1987=100). Composite Index of 8 Leading Indicators (1987=100). Shaded area refers to recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
5 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Texas major MSAs are showing signs of slowing, especially Houston Major Metros Business Cycle Index (Year-over-Year Percent Change) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown San Antonio Note: Seasonally adjusted. Composite Index of 3 Coincident Indicators (1987=100). Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
6 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-12 May-13 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 May-16 Recent Texas growth has been driven by the service sector Good-Producing and Service-Providing Employment (Year-over-Year Percent Change) Goods-Producing Service-Providing Note: Seasonally adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
7 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-12 May-13 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 May-16 Mining and manufacturing job losses continue and have spread to construction and transportation and warehousing Employment Growth Rate (Year-over-Year Percent Change) Mining & Logging Manufacturing Construction Trade, Transportation & Utilities Note: Seasonally adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Texas manufacturing will continue to falter in the short run Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Index) Expansion United States Contraction Texas Note: Seasonally adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas Index
9 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-12 May-13 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 May-16 while Texas services are expected to grow Services Sector Outlook Survey (Index) 50 United States Texas Expansion Contraction Note: Seasonally adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas Index
10 Slowdown in employment growth is broad based across sectors from March to May with exception of financial activities and other services Employment by Sector (y-o-y % change March-May 2016 ) May-16 Apr-16 Mar-16 Leisure & Hospitality Educational & Health Services Financial Activities Other Services Trade, Transp & Utilities Government Professional & Business Svc Construction Information Manufacturing Mining & Logging Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-12 May-13 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 May-16 Texas job growth to lag U.S. Employment Growth Rate (Year-over-Year Percent Change) United States Texas Notes: Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-12 May-13 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 May-16 Slow growth in labor market causes wages to decrease Average Hourly Earnings, All Employees: Total Private (y-o-y % change) United States Texas Average Hourly Earnings May-16 U.S. $25.7 Texas $ Note: Seasonally adjusted. Deflated with Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers: All items. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
13 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-12 May-13 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 May-16 Wages are falling in DFW and Houston MSAs that have more mining and manufacturing jobs Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change) Average Hourly Earnings May-16 Austin $27.1 Dallas $26.9 Fort Worth $25.3 Houston $27.2 San Antonio $22.0 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown San Antonio-New Braunfels Note: Seasonally adjusted. Deflated with Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers: All items. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
14 Contents 1.Economic Outlook 2. Housing Market 3. Challenges and Issues
15 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-12 May-13 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 May-16 Texas residential construction is slowing Residential Construction Coincident Index (Index Jan 2007 = 100) Texas Coincident Index United States Coincident Index Texas Leading Index Note: Seasonally adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University & Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
16 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-12 May-13 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 May-16 Single-family housing construction was constrained by a shortage of developed lots and skilled labor Single-Family Permits (Index Jan 2007=100) United States Texas Note: Seasonally adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
17 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 May-12 Sep-12 May-13 Sep-13 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 May-16 Even with the slowdown DFW, Houston and Austin led the nation in the number of single-family permits issued Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits (Index Jan 2007=100) 100 Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels Note: Seasonally adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
18 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Housing demand expanded in the face of supply limitations, declining home affordability and tight market credit conditions Housing Sales (Index 2007=100) United States Texas Note: Seasonally adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
19 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Austin, DFW, and San Antonio continue to post solid home sales, while Houston s slow Major Metro Housing Sales (Index 2007=100) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels Note: Seasonally adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
20 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Home inventories remain low, below the balanced number of around 6.5 months of inventory Months of Inventory (No. of months) United States Texas Note: Seasonally Adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
21 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Low inventories in DFW, Austin and San Antonio reflect strong market, while Houston showing signs of softening Months of Inventory (No. of months) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels Note: Seasonally Adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
22 Housing prices have risen dramatically in Texas since 2011 Housing Price Index (Index 2007=100) United States Texas 140 Average Price May 2016 All(New and Existing) $256,074 Existing $245,243 New $342, I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Note: Seasonally Adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.
23 Constrained supply, in conjunction with strong demand have accelerated price gains, Houston exhibits softening in price growth Housing Price Index (Index 2007=100) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels Average Price May 2016 All(New and Existing) Austin $361,676 DFW $302,982 Houston $296,606 San Antonio $246, I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Note: Seasonally Adjusted. Shaded area refers to recession. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.
24 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 New home prices exceed existing. Price differentials result because of increases home size and construction and land cost Texas Existing and New Average Sales Price ($) Existing Home Average Sales Price New Home Average Sales Price 350, , , , , , , , , ,000 Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.
25 With rapid appreciation, Texas affordability continues to fall relative to the U.S., especially in the major MSAs Housing Opportunity Index (Index) United States Austin Dallas Fort Worth Houston San Antonio Affordable I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo
26
27 Contents 1.Economic Outlook 2. Housing Market 3. Challenges and Issues
28 ❶Weak energy sector Challenges and Issues Price of oil has flattened close to $50 per barrel? Rig counts appeared to have reached a trough Oil production continues to fall and expected to decline more forcefully going forward ❷ Strong dollar and lackluster global growth (uncertainty) Texas is the number one exporting state in the nation and one of the top regions in the world Texas exports will be expensive facing weak global demand
29 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Challenges and Issues Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count (Rigs, Millions of Barrels) 1,200 1,100 1, Production of Crude Oil (Right Axis) Number of Operating Rigs Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration
30 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Challenges and Issues Exports (All Commodities) (Year-over-Year Percent Change) Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar (Index January 2007 = 100) United States Texas United States Texas Appreciation Depreciation Note: Adjusted for inflation with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. Source: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division and U.S. Census Bureau Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
31 Challenges and Issues ❸ Monetary unwinding best way to normalize monetary policy Goal of monetary policy is to manage exit from low interest rates so economy converges to full employment with stable prices while avoiding financial instability With current economic conditions and global volatility, can it be done?
32 Challenges and Issues ❹U.S. mid- and long-term economic growth prospects Medium-term potential growth forecast to average just above 2 percent for the next several years, significantly below historic average growth rate of 3 percent Downgrade reflects effects of labor force participation declining and modest prospects for productivity growth Distribution of income and wealth (increasing poverty levels) Boost long-term growth through: investment in infrastructure, raising educational outcomes, improving tax structure (e.g. corporate tax), and developing and expanding a skilled labor force (immigration reform and job training).
33 U.S. economy will continue to grow in 2016 while forecast for Texas suggests moderate expansion The U.S. economy is expected to grow around 2.2% in Household disposable income is growing Housing markets appear solid Household and corporate balance sheets are in relatively good shape (aided by historically low interest rates) Wages appear to be rising possible sign of reaching full employment Headwinds are weak energy and non-energy investment, drag from net exports, and slowing consumer demand.
34 Moderate 2016 outlook for Texas economy and housing market ❶ Employment growth will slow Dallas Federal Reserve: Initial forecast, Texas % most recent %, currently standing at 1.3% Houston employment expected to fall by less than 1% ❷ Low mortgage rates ❸ Positive home-price appreciation Low inventory levels (supply)
35 U.S. economy has been characterized by slow growth and uncertainty, and now Texas economy faces the same issues Some uncertainty continues to pose downside risk to Texas economic outlook: Duration of low oil prices Strength of the U.S. economy Federal Reserve s exit strategy U.S. shale role of swing producer (cyclical behavior) Growth in world economy
36
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