U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook
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1 U.S. and Montana Economic Outlook Patrick M. Barkey, Director Bureau of Business and Economic Research University of Montana
2 Is the Story of the U.S. Economy Changing? Old Story Better growth next year Where have all the workers gone? Inflation? What inflation? Real estate sellers market Central banks printing money 2018 Story U.S. growth expected to surge in 2 nd quarter of 2018 to > 4% Labor force finally registering meaningful growth Consumer price index up 2.8% in June from year ago levels Housing inventories creeping upward Europe, yes. U.S. monetary policy starting to look normal
3 U.S. Economic Growth in Context Second quarter surge in U.S. economy is temporary, impacted by one-time increases in exports to avoid new tariffs Normal U.S. growth is now stronger Signs point to global growth weakening Rhetoric of U.S. trade policy is harsh, reality is not as bad yet. Some tariffs have been good for U.S. industries. Labor markets are very tight will wage increases spark inflation?
4 Growth Much Slower Than Past Cycles Real GDP Index Apr '60 - Dec '69 Jul 90 Mar Nov 73 Jan 80 Jul 81 Jul Jan 80 Jul 81 Dec 69 Nov 73 Mar 01 Dec 07 Dec 07 - Now Source: U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis Years
5 Do Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions?
6 Wage Growth Remains Subdued Contributions by Source, Percentage Points Percent Inflation expectations Productivity Labor Share Slack Other Source: Standard and Poor
7 Montana s Economic Growth: Where Is The Sizzle? Job Growth Strong, Labor Markets are Tight Construction Cranes are Everywhere Eastern third of the state is suffering Agriculture producers and feeling pain State tax revenue growth improves, but below forecasts
8 Montana General Fund Revenue Collections, FY15-FY17, $ Millions Source: Montana Department of Revenue Fiscal Year FY2016/FY Change Pct. Change Individual Income Tax % Estimated Payments % Refunds % Withholding % Property Tax % Corporation Tax % Oil and Gas Prod. Tax % Coal Severance Tax % General Fund Revenues %
9 Montana General Fund Revenue Collections, FY15-FY18, $ Millions Fiscal Year FY2017/FY Change Pct. Change Individual Income Tax % Estimated Payments % Refunds % Withholding % Property Tax % Corporation Tax % Oil and Gas Prod. Tax % Coal Severance Tax % General Fund Revenues % Source: Montana Department of Revenue
10 Relationship Between Tax Receipts and Personal Income Far From Perfect Source: BBER
11 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
12 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
13 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
14 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
15 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
16 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000 Western Montana Job Growth Strongest Growth in Jobs, 2017 and 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
17 Flathead: 3.6% Fallon: -3.7% Gallatin: 5.1% Yellowstone: -0.3%
18 Valley County vs. Montana Real Payroll Wages Index, 2012Q3 = 100
19 Richland County vs. Montana Real Payroll Wages Index, 2012Q3 = 100
20 Flathead County vs. Montana Real Payroll Wages Index, 2012Q3 = 100
21 Yellowstone County vs. Montana Real Payroll Wages Index, 2012Q3 = 100
22 Gallatin County vs. Montana Real Payroll Wages Index, 2012Q3 = 100
23 Silver Bow County vs. Montana Real Payroll Wages Index, 2012Q3 = 100
24 Lewis & Clark County vs. Montana Real Payroll Wages Index, 2012Q3 = 100
25 Cascade County vs. Montana Real Payroll Wages Index, 2012Q3 = 100
26 Missoula County vs. Montana Real Payroll Wages Index, 2012Q3 = 100
27 Missoula: 25.2% Richland: -18.0% Gallatin: 9.4% Yellowstone: -10.1%
28 Montana Labor Market Still Tightening Unemployment Insurance Claims, ,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10, ,000 6,000 4, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry
29 Montana s Key Industries Agriculture producers battered by prices, drought Wood products companies encouraged by prices, salvage sales Tech expansion, construction healthy in western Montana Uncertainties in DC weigh on land use, health care Labor shortages impacting construction Real estate, financial institutions performing well
30 Growth in Nonfarm Earnings, Montana, Percent Actual Projected Source: BBER and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: BBER and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
31 Questions?
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