Outlook for the Economy & Construction

Transcription

1 Outlook for the Economy & Construction UALR Economic Outlook Conference Little Rock, November 2, 2011 Ken Simonson Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors of America VP, National Association for Business Economics

2 Current economy and construction outlook GDP, personal income, jobs: weak gains should improve Continuing problems for office, retail Power, mfg., warehouse/distribution, hospitals will grow Apartments should boom; single family still a mystery Federal, state, local cuts will continue Little inflation; price spikes for oil, metals should fade Source: AGC 2

3 Federal funding sources and outlook Stimulus, base realignment, Gulf Coast hurricane work: all ending or tapering off Highway, transit funding OK until early 2012, then?? Debt ceiling agreement implies more spending cuts but no disruption of interest rates or credit availability American Jobs Act: $50 billion for transportation (+ $10 billion Infrastructure Bank); $30 billion for schools but enactment appears unlikely Source: AGC 3

4 Construction spending: trend, latest level, 12 mo. change Seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), March 2006 September 2011 $1,400 $700 $1,200 $600 (Billion $, SAAR) $1,000 $800 $600 $400 (Billion $, SAAR) $500 $400 $300 $200 $200 $100 $ $ Total construction Public: $285 billion, 9% September 2011: $787 billion September 2010 September 2011: 1% Private nonres: $274 billion, 7% Private residential: $228 billion, 0% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 4

5 Single vs. multi family, , seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) $48 Multi family construction spending $240 Single family & improvements spending Billion $ Thousands $36 $24 $ Latest 1 mo. change: 0%, 12 mo.: 6% Multi family permits & starts 80 Permits (1 mo 14%, 12 mo 11%) Starts (1 mo 51%, 12 mo 55%) Billion $ $180 $120 $60 SF(1 mo 1%, 12 mo 0%), Imp(1 mo 0%, 12 mo 7%) Thousands Single family permits & starts 160 Permits (1 mo 0%, 12 mo 3%) Starts (1 mo 2%, 12 mo 5%) Source: Census Bureau construction spending, housing starts reports 5

6 Housing outlook SF: starts, permits should rise gradually by late 11 MF: Upturn has begun, should accelerate in 12 - Rental demand should rise as more people get jobs or move to military base realignment sites - Condo market continues to have large overhang - Government subsidized market likely to worsen Source: Author 6

7 Nonres totals (billion $, SAAR), share & 12 month change 9/11 Total Share 9/10 9/11 Nonresidential (priv.+federal+state/local) $551 billion 100% 1 Power (incl. oil & gas struc., pipelines) Educational Highway and street Commercial (retail, wholesale, farm) Health care Manufacturing (incl. data centers) Transportation Office Sewage and waste disposal Communication Amusement and recreation Other (water, public safety; lodging; conservation; religious): 8% of total Source: Census Bureau construction spending report 7

8 Construction spending: public works (billion $, SAAR) $90 Highways (99.96% public) $27 Sewage/waste (98% public) $80 $24 $70 $21 $60 $18 Latest 1 mo. change: 1.4%, 12 mo.: 6% Latest 1 mo. change: 1.8%, 12 mo.: 13% $36 Public transportation facilities $18 Water supply (96% public) $32 $16 $28 $14 $24 $12 Latest 1 mo. change: 4.7%, 12 mo.: 19% Latest 1 mo. change: 2.4%, 12 mo.: 12% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 8

9 Construction spending: institutional (private + state/local) $40 Hospitals (81% private) $40 Higher education (26% private) $35 $35 $30 $30 $25 Latest 1 mo. change: 4.8%, 12 mo.: 1% $25 Latest 1 mo. change: 2.7%, 12 mo.: 2% $64 PreK 12 education (94% state/local) $15 Public safety (98% public) $56 $13 $48 $11 $40 $9 Latest 1 mo. change: 1.2%, 12 mo.: 6% Latest 1 mo. change: 4.9%, 12 mo.: 9% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 9

10 Construction spending: industrial, heavy (billion $, SAAR) $132 Power (87% private) $66 Manufacturing (97% private) $108 $54 $84 $42 $60 $30 Latest 1 mo. change: 0.2%, 12 mo.: 19% Latest 1 mo. change: 0.3%, 12 mo.: 5% $33 Communication (99% private) $33 Amusement & recreation (43% private) $27 $27 $21 $21 $15 $15 Latest 1 mo. change: 2.2%, 12 mo.: 0% Latest 1 mo. change: 1.1%, 12 mo.: 12% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 10

11 Construction spending: developer financed (billion $, SAAR) $60 Nonautomotive retail $60 Office (private) $44 $44 $28 $28 $12 $12 Latest 1 mo. change: 1.4%, 12 mo.: 5% Latest 1 mo. change: 0.8%, 12 mo.: 4% Warehouses $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Lodging (private) $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Latest 1 mo. change: 3.0%, 12 mo.: 38% Latest 1 mo. change: 2.8%, 12 mo.: 21% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 11

12 Economic impact of nonresidential construction Jobs: 28,500 per $1 billion 1/3 direct, onsite construction 1/6 indirect (quarries, mfg., services) 1/2 induced by spending from higher earnings of construction, indirect workers and owners GDP: $3.4 billion Personal earnings: $1.1 billion Source: Prof. Stephen Fuller, George Mason University 12

13 Construction and total private employment, 2008 September 2011 Millions Total private Millions Total construction Latest 1 mo. change: 0.1%, 12 mo.: 1.7% Latest 1 mo. change: 0.5%, 12 mo.: 0.7% Heavy & civil engineering construction Building + specialty trade contractors Millions Millions Latest 1 mo. change: 0.7%, 12 mo.: 1.2% 2.0 Nonresidential Residential 1 mo: 0.9%, 12 mo: 1.5% 1 mo: 0.2%, 12 mo: 0.6% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 13

14 State construction employment change (U.S.: 1%) 9/10 to 9/11 (seasonally adjusted) 4% 2% 5% 3% 2% 8% 0% 10% or worse 5.0% to 9.9% 0.1% to 4.9% 0% to 4.9% 2% 2% 9% 4% 23% 1% 2% 0% 8% 1% 4% 0% 2% 5% 4% 8% 7% 5% 5% 4% 2% 4% 9% 1% 2% 3% 3% 0% 5% or better 1% 1% CT 2% DE 5% MD 2% NH 6% VT 2% MA 1% RI 3% NJ 3% DC 3% 3% HI 2% 6% 4% 4% Source: BLS state and regional employment report 14

15 Construction Employment Change from Year Ago 1/08 9/11 (not seasonally adjusted) 12 month % change 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Little Rock North Little Rock Conway, AR 2% 120 out of 337 Arkansas 2% 20 out of 51 U.S. 1% 20% Source: BLS 15

16 In thousands 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 In thousands U.S. Construction Employment, 1/90 9/11 (seasonally adjusted; shading = recessions) Jun Arkansas Construction Employment, 1/90 9/11 (seasonally adjusted; shading = recessions) Oct Source: BLS 16

17 Employment Change by Metro (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Metro area or division 9/10 9/11 Rank (out of 337) Statewide* (const/mining/logging) 2% Fayetteville Springdale Rogers, AR MO* 0% 146 Fort Smith, AR OK* 8% 26 Little Rock North Little Rock Conway* 2% 120 Memphis, TN MS AR* 12% 14 Texarkana, TX Texarkana, AR* 9% 21 *The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports employment for construction, mining and logging combined for most metro areas and some states in which mining and logging have few employers. To allow comparisons between states and their metros, the table shows combined employment change. Source: AGC rankings, calculated from BLS state and area employment reports 17

18 Construction materials costs vs. new offices, highways, CPI PPI for materials March 2009= CPI PPI for offices 90 NHCCI 85 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Source: Author, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (consumer & producer price indexes monthly), Federal Highway Administration (National Highway Construction Cost Index quarterly) 18

19 Producer price indexes for key inputs, 1/08 9/11 (January 2008=100) Fuel 50 No. 2 diesel fuel Latest 1 mo. change: 3.3%, 12 mo.: 39% Metal products 50 Copper & brass mill shapes 1 mo: 0.7%, 12 mo: 15% Steel mill products 1 mo: 0.6%, 12 mo: 14% Concrete products 1 mo: 0.2%, 12 mo: 0% Highway materials Asphalt paving mixture & block 1 mo: 0.1%, 12 mo: 8% Lumber & plywood 1 mo: 1.3%, 12 mo: 0% Building materials Gypsum products 1 mo: 1.7%, 12 mo: 5% Source: Author, based on BLS producer price index reports 19

20 Outlook for materials Industry depends on specific materials that: are in demand worldwide have erratic supply growth are heavy, bulky or hard to transport Construction requires physical delivery Thus, industry is subject to price spurts, transport bottlenecks, fuel price swings Expect periods of 6 to 9% PPI increases Source: Author 20

21 Summary for 2011 Real GDP growth: Q4 2 3% (Q3 2.5%, Q2 1.3%, Q1 0.4%) Unemployment rate in Dec.: % (Sept. 9.1%) Inflation Dec. 10 Dec. 11: CPI 2%, PPI 4% (Sept. 4%, 7%) Total construction spending 2011 vs. 2010: 1 to 3% Source: Author 21

22 Forecast for 2012 Real GDP growth 11Q4 12Q4: 3% (2011: 1.7%) Unemployment rate in Dec.: 8% (Dec. 2011: %) Inflation Dec. 11 Dec. 12: CPI 2%, PPI 3% (2011: 2%, 4%) Total construction spending 2012 vs. 2011: +1 to +3% Home prices, sales, construction improve Fewer wars, natural disasters; shale aids growth, prices But gov. paralysis, spending cuts act as drag on incomes Source: Author 22

23 AGC economic resources ( The Data DIGest: weekly 1 page (subscribe at: PPI tables: ed monthly State and metro data, fact sheets 23

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