Construction Spending, Labor & Materials Outlook

Transcription

1 Construction Spending, Labor & Materials Outlook Colorado Chapters, AGC Denver, October 17, 2013 Ken Simonson Chief Economist, AGC of America org

2 Construction spending (seasonally adjusted annual rate SAAR) $1,200 Total construction, Jan /13 (billion $) Billion $ 12 month n% change $800 $ month % change, Jan /13 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% Public Private Nonresidential Private Residential Private Residential Total Private Nonresidential Public 2

3 Construction is growing, but unevenly 3 trends helping many sectors and regions: Shale gale Panama Canal expansion Residential revival 3 trends holding down construction growth: Government spends less on schools, infrastructure Consumers switch from stores to online buying Employers shrink office space per employee Source: Author 3

4 One (or many) bright spot(s): the shale gale Cody Baxter Mancos Mancos Mowry Bakken Gammon Niobrara Antrim Marcellus/ Devonian/Utica Lewis Barnett Woodford Pierre Woodford Barnett Eagle Ford Mulky New Albany Fayetteville Floyd Neal Haynesville Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2008 to

5 Shale s direct and indirect impacts on construction Onsite: Each well requires access road, site prep, pad, storage pond, support structures, pipes Nearby: Products, water require trucking, rail, pipeline, processing Local spending by drilling firms, workers, royalty holders Upstream: orders for fracking sand, rigs, compressors, pumps, pipe, tanks, trucks, railcars, processing facilities Downstream: Petrochemical, power, steel plants; LNG export terminals, fueling stations; LNG powered vehicles Losers: coal; maybe wind, solar, nuclear & suppliers Source: Author 5

6 U.S. Post Panamax Ready Ports Seattle & Tacoma Columbia River at Mouth, OR & WA Oakland Los Angeles/ Long Beach San Diego (with tide) Mobile New York New Jersey Baltimore Norfolk Charleston (with tide) Savannah Jacksonville Miami Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 6

7 Panama Canal expansion s impacts on construction Ports: investing in dredging, piers, cranes, land access Nearby: Storage, warehouse, trucking, rail facilities Bridge, tunnel, highway improvements Inland: possible changes in distribution, manufacturing Source: Author 7

8 Private residential spending is still rising for now 12 month percent change in private single and multifamily spending, 1/11 7/13 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% 15% Multifamily Single family Latest 12 mo: MF: 39% SF: 29% 30% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 8

9 Housing outlook SF: rising for now but tight credit, selective labor shortages may limit increases MF: Upturn should last into and maybe through 2014 Vacancy rates near multi year lows in most cities Preference for urban living, fear of lock in add to demand Condo market has been slower to revive than rentals Government subsidized market likely to worsen Improvements: should benefit from rising SF sales Source: Author 9

10 Nonres totals (billion $, SAAR), share & 12 month change 7/13 Total Share 7/12 7/13 Nonresidential $560 billion 100% 1% Power (incl. oil & gas structures, pipelines) Educational Highway and street Commercial (retail, warehouse, farm) Manufacturing Transportation Health care Office Sewage and waste disposal Communication Lodging Other (amusement; water; public safety; conservation; religious): 8% of total 7 Source: Census Bureau construction spending report 10

11 Construction spending: public works (billion $, SAAR) $90 Highways (99.9% public) $30 Sewage/waste (98% public) $60 $30 Public $20 $10 Public $30 Amusement & recreation (57% public) $30 Water supply (96% public) $20 $20 $10 Public Private $10 Public Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 11

12 Construction spending: institutional (private + state/local) $30 Total private education $30 State & local higher education $20 $20 $10 $10 Latest 1 mo. change: 2.6%, 12 mo.: 2% Latest 1 mo. change: 1.3%, 12 mo.: 7% $60 Hospitals (80% private) $60 State & local prek 12 education $40 $40 $20 State/local Private Latest 1 mo. change: 0.4%, 12 mo.: 1% $20 Latest 1 mo. change: 3.9%, 12 mo.: 19% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 12

13 Construction spending: industrial, heavy (billion $, SAAR) Power (87% private) $120 $90 $60 Private $30 Latest 1 mo. change: 0.1%, 12 mo.: 6% Private transportation facilities $40 $30 $20 $10 Latest 1 mo. change: 1.8%, 12 mo.: 3% Manufacturing (98% private) $120 $90 $60 $30 Private Latest 1 mo. change: 3.3%, 12 mo.: 0% Public transportation facilities $40 $30 $20 $10 Latest 1 mo. change: 4.1%, 12 mo.: 15% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 13

14 Construction spending: developer financed (billion $, SAAR) Retail (private) $80 $60 $40 $20 Latest 1 mo. change: 3.4%, 12 mo.: 1% Warehouse (private) $40 $30 $20 $10 Latest 1 mo. change: 3.5%, 12 mo.: 11% Office (private) $80 $60 $40 $20 Latest 1 mo. change: 1.6%, 12 mo.: 5% Lodging (private) $40 $30 $20 $10 Latest 1 mo. change: 6.1%, 12 mo.: 33% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 14

15 State construction employment change (U.S.: 3.0%) 8/12 to 8/13: 35 states up, 1 unchanged, 14 + DC down Over 10% 5.1% to 10% 0.1% to 5% 0% 0.1% to 5% 5.1% to 10% Over 10% 5% 5% 1% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 13% 3% 9% 5% 0.5% 1% 1% 1% 4% 7% 8% 1% 5% 0.1% 8% 2% 1% 12% 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 3% 0.3% 5% 2% 3% 4% CT 7% DE 2% MD 2% NH 6% VT 0% MA 4% RI 4% NJ 4% DC 3% 4% HI 9% 4% 8% 6% Shading based on unrounded numbers Source: BLS state and regional employment report 15

16 Construction employment, Aug. 13 vs. peak US: construction 25% ( 1.9 million); private nonfarm 1% ( 1.4 million) States: only LA & ND at new peak in 2013, 47 states more than 10% below Metros: only 19 of 339 at new Aug. peak, not seasonally adjusted Peak in 2013 Within 10% of peak >10% below peak F Source: 16

17 12 Month Percent Change in State Construction Employment (seasonally adjusted), January 2010 June 2013 Legend Over 10% 5.1 to 10% 0.1% to 5% 0% 0.1% to 5% 5.1% to 10% Over 10% State Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware* District of Columbia* Florida Georgia Hawaii* Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland* Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska* Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota* Tennessee* Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming 17

18 In thousands In thousands 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Construction Employment in United States, 1/90 8/13 (seasonally adjusted; shading = recessions) Jun Construction Employment in Colorado, 1/90 8/13 (seasonally adjusted; shading = recessions) Dec Source: BLS

19 Construction Employment Change from Year Ago 1/08 8/13 (seasonally adjusted) 12 month % change 10% 0% 10% 20% Colorado 8.8% 3 out of 51 U.S. 3.0% 30% Source: BLS 19

20 Change in construction employment, 8/12 8/13 not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Metro area or division 12 mo. empl. change (NSA) Rank (out of 339) Statewide* (Const/mining/logging) 6% Boulder* 9% 323 Colorado Springs* 2% 163 Denver Aurora Broomfield* 7% 61 Fort Collins Loveland* 1% 182 Grand Junction* 7% 61 Greeley* 6% 78 Pueblo* 0% 195 *The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports employment for construction, mining and logging combined for most metro areas and some states in which mining and logging have few employers. To allow comparisons between states and their metros, the table shows combined employment change. Source: AGC rankings, calculated from BLS state and area employment reports 20

21 Construction employment change by CO metro, 8/12 8/13 Over 10% 5.1% to 10% 0.1% to 5% 0% 0.1% to 5% 5.1% to 10% Over 10% Shading based on unrounded numbers Source: BLS state and regional employment report 21

22 Construction spending, labor & prices, 1/11 7/13 Spending +19% but jobs only +7%. How do they do it? Contractors charging slightly more: PPI +6% (industrial buildings) More hours per worker: aggregate hours +10% (+3% per employee) Implication: further spending growth will trigger bigger pickup in hiring 20% 19% 20% 19% total % change 1/11 7/13 15% 10% 5% 0% Spending 7% Employment % change 1/11 7/13 15% 10% 5% 0% 6% price change 12% real Spending 10% Total hours worked Source: Author, from Census Bureau (spending), BLS (employment, hours, PPI) 22

23 Construction vs. overall (un)employment, 8/10 8/13 Private sector added jobs since 2010, construction only since 1/11 Construction unemployment fell faster than industry added jobs Thus, workers are leaving for other sectors, school, retiring 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Unemployment rates (August 2010 August 2013) Construction Total 17.3% 11.3% 9.1% 7.3% August '10 August '13 Change in unemployment & employment (Not seasonally adjusted, August 2010 August 2013) Const. unem. Const. empl. Nonfarm empl. 725, ,000 6,233, In Millions Source: Author, from Census Bureau (spending), BLS (employment, hours, PPI) 23

24 Percentage of firms having a hard time filling key professional & craft worker positions all prof. & craft 21% Some prof. & craft 24% prof. only 7% no trouble 11% not hiring 8% craft only 28% Source: AGC Worker Shortage Survey, Aug

25 Hardest positions to fill (% of respondents that are having trouble filling) Professional any 53% Project managers/supervisors 49 Estimators 35 Engineers 15 No trouble/not hiring 47 Craft any 74% Laborers 35 Carpenters 34 Equipment operators 31 No trouble/don t employ crafts 26 Source: AGC Worker Shortage Survey, Aug

26 Material & labor costs vs. office & highway bid prices, 12/10 8/13 December 2010 = NHCCI ECI PPI for materials PPI for offices / Source: Author, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics for Producer Price Indexes (PPIs) and Employment Cost Index (ECI); Federal Highway Administration for National Highway Construction Cost Index (NHCCI) 26

27 Producer price indexes for key inputs, 1/11 8/13 (Jan. 2011=100) 140 Steel mill products 140 Copper & brass mill shapes Latest 1 mo. change: 0.1%, 12 mo.: 3% Latest 1 mo. change: 4.4%, 12 mo.: 1% 140 Gypsum products 140 Lumber & plywood Latest 1 mo. change: 0.2%, 12 mo.: 14% Latest 1 mo. change: 1.8%, 12 mo.: 9% Source: Author, based on BLS producer price index reports 27

28 Producer price indexes for key inputs, 1/11 8/13 (Jan. 2011=100) 130 No. 2 diesel fuel 130 Concrete products Latest 1 mo. change: 2.3%, 12 mo.: 2% Latest 1 mo. change: 0.0%, 12 mo.: 3% Asphalt paving mixtures & blocks Prepared asphalt & tar roofing & siding materials Latest 1 mo. change: 0.8%, 12 mo.: 1% Latest 1 mo. change: 0.8%, 12 mo.: 5% Source: Author, based on BLS producer price index reports 28

29 Summary for 2013 Private nonres spending +5 to +10% (vs. 16% in 12): more manufacturing, warehouse, data centers; remodels of hotels, office, retail; flat power, health care, private ed Res +15% to +20% (vs. 15% in 12): MF very strong, SF?? Public: 3 to 6% (vs. 3% in 12): highways 0%, ed 5%; federal spending down; states level; local small decline Total construction spending: +5 to +10% (vs. 9% in 12) Materials costs: +1 to +3% Dec. Dec. (vs. 1.4% in 12) Labor costs: +2% to +3.5% Dec. Dec. (vs. 1.6% in 12) Labor supply: limited craft, professional shortages Source: Author 29

30 Trends: Total construction spending: +6% to +10% per year less SF housing, retail; declining public spending new drivers: shale based gas & oil; Panama Canal widening; more elderly & kids, fewer young adults Materials costs: +3% to +8% (vs. 2% to 3% for CPI) Labor costs: +2% to + 4% Labor supply: widespread shortages possible due to retirements, competition from other sectors, fewer vets Source: Author 30

31 AGC economic resources ( The Data DIGest: weekly 1 page (subscribe at monthly press releases: spending; PPI; national, state, metro employment State and metro data, fact sheets Website: Webinar 10/17 w/ AIA, Reed economists 31