US Economic Briefing: Consumer Confidence

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1 US Economic Briefing: Consumer Confidence ember 8, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1 Consumer Optimism Consumer Confidence 3- Consumer Confidence & Unemployment 7-8 Consumer Confidence & Employment 9-11 Consumer Sentiment 1 Consumer Confidence By Region 13- Consumer Optimism Index 1 Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation 17 Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 18-1 ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

3 Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1 Figure CONSUMER SURVEYS Consumer Confidence Index (1985=, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) CURRENT CONDITIONS Consumer Confidence Index (1985=, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) EXPECTATIONS Consumer Confidence Index (1985=, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center Page 1 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

4 1 Figure. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* Consumer Optimism CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTATIONS * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa). Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. 3 Page / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

5 Consumer Confidence 5 15 Figure 3. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=, sa) Total (19.5) Source: The Conference Board. 5 1 Figure. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=, sa) Consumer Confidence Index (19.5) Current Conditions Component (3.9) Expectations Component (113.3) Source: The Conference Board. Page 3 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

6 Consumer Confidence 1 1 Figure 5. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=, sa) Current Conditions Component (3.9) Expectations Component (113.3) Source: The Conference Board. 1 Figure. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=, sa) Consumer Confidence Index (19.5) Current Conditions Component (3.9) Expectations Component (113.3) Source: The Conference Board. Page / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

7 Consumer Confidence 1 1 Figure 7. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS (1985=, sa) Age Group Under 35 (139.8) 35-5 (15.7) 55+ (19.8) Source: The Conference Board. 1 1 Figure 8. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* Total (11.) Present (133.7) Expectations (11.1) * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. Page 5 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

8 Figure 9. Consumer Confidence CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABLITY (percent saying so) Jobs Plentiful* (37.1) Jobs Hard To Get* (1.9) * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board Figure 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: CURRENT CONDITIONS & JOBS AVAILABILITY Jobs Plentiful Minus Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) (.) Current Conditions Index (3.9) * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Source: The Conference Board. Page / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

9 Consumer Confidence & Unemployment 1 Figure 11. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & JOBS AVAILABILITY 75 1 Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) Unemployment Rate (percent) * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 75 Figure 1. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & CONFIDENCE (sa) Jobs Hard To Get (percent saying so) U- Unemployment Rate* (percent) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. * Total unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus all attached workers. Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor. Page 7 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

10 Figure 13. Consumer Confidence & Unemployment CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (sa) Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, -week ma) Jobs Hard To Get (percent saying so) 11/ Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor Figure 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS & JOBS AVAILABILITY (sa) Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, sa, -week ma) / * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor. Page 8 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

11 1 Figure. Consumer Confidence & Employment EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER SENTIMENT Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-19=, nsa) Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Consumer Confidence Index (1985=, sa) Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER OPTIMISM 8 1 Consumer Optimism Index* - Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa). Source: The Conference Board, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and US Department of Labor. - Page 9 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

12 Figure 1. Consumer Confidence & Employment CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS (sa) Percent Expecting More Jobs Months From Now Percent Expecting Fewer Jobs Months From Now Source: The Conference Board Figure 17. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS (sa) Percent Expecting More Jobs Minus Percent Expecting Fewer Jobs Consumer Confidence Expectations Index Source: The Conference Board. Page 1 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

13 9 Figure 18. Consumer Confidence & Employment CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: BUSINESS CONDITIONS (sa) Business Conditions Months Ahead Better Worsen Same Source: Conference Board. 1 1 Figure 19. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: HOME 1 1 Plans to Buy Within Months: Home (% of respondents, sa) Source: Conference Board. Page 11 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

14 13 1 Figure. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (Q1-19=, nsa) Consumer Sentiment Consumer Sentiment Index (98.5) Current Conditions (113.5) Expectations (88.9) Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center Figure 1. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (Q1-19=, nsa) Current Conditions (113.5) Expectations (88.9) Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center. 5 Page 1 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

15 Consumer Confidence By Region Figure. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=, sa) New England* Current Conditions New England* Expectations Middle Atlantic* Middle Atlantic* Current Conditions Expectations South Atlantic* South Atlantic* Current Conditions Expectations * New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont); Middle Atlantic (New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania); South Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida). Source: The Conference Board Page 13 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

16 Consumer Confidence By Region Figure 3. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=, sa) East North Central* East North Central* Current Conditions Expectations East South Central* East South Central* Current Conditions Expectations West North Central* West North Central* Current Conditions Expectations * East North Central (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin); East South Central (Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi); West North Central (Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas). Source: The Conference Board Page 1 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

17 Consumer Confidence By Region Figure. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=, sa) West South Central* West South Central* Current Conditions Expectations Mountain* Mountain* Current Conditions Expectations Pacific* Pacific* Current Conditions Expectations * West South Central (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas); Mountain (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada); Pacific (Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii). Source: The Conference Board. Page / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

18 17 Figure 5. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* Consumer Optimism Index Total Current Conditions Expectations * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa). Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center Figure. NFIB: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL (sa) NFIB: Firms with One or More Job Openings (1-month average, percent) (31.8) Oct Jobs Plentiful (percent saying so) (37.1) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business. 1 5 Page 1 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

19 Figure 7. Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL (sa) ECI: Wages & Salaries Private Industry (yearly percent change) Jobs Plentiful* (percent saying so) Q * Every other month from 197 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July Seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Conference Board. Page 17 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

20 Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 1 1 Figure 8. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Sep Consumer Optimism Index (11.) - Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (3.) CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Sep 5 7 Consumer Sentiment Index (19=) (98.5) 5 Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (3.) CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Confidence Index (1985=) (19.5) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (3.) Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Sep Page 18 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

21 Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 1 1 Figure 9. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Sep Consumer Optimism Index: Present Situation (133.7) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (3.) CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES 1 9 Sep 5 7 Consumer Sentiment Index: Current Conditions (19=) (113.5) 5 Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (3.) CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Confidence Index: Current Conditions (1985=) (3.9) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (3.) Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Sep Page 19 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

22 Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 1 1 Figure 3. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Optimism Index: Expectations (11.1) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (3.) CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Consumer Sentiment Index: Expectations (19=) (88.9) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (3.) Sep CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES Sep Consumer Confidence Index: Expectations (1985=) (113.3) Wages & Salaries (yearly percent change (3.) Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis Page / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

23 Figure 31. Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Present Situation Component (1985=, sa) (3.9) Oct - 5 Payroll Employment (yearly percent change) (1.) Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - - Figure 3. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT Present Situation Component (1985=, sa) (3.9) Oct - 5 Household Employment (yearly percent change) (1.3) Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. - - Page 1 / ember 8, 17 / Consumer Confidence www.

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