Construction Spending, Labor and Materials Outlook

Transcription

1 Construction Spending, Labor and Materials Outlook 2018 Realtors Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo Washington, DC, May 18, 2018 Ken Simonson Chief Economist, AGC of America

2 2 Construction spending & employment, Total spending, Feb. 06 (peak) Mar. 18 trillion $, seasonally adjusted annual rate $1.50 3/18 Total: $1.28 trillion (7% above 06 peak) $1.20 $0.90 $0.60 $0.30 Private residential (2 below 06 peak) Private nonresidential (9% above 08 peak) Public (9% below 09 peak) $ Mar Mar. 2018: total 3. private res., private nonres., public Total employment, Apr. 06 (peak) Mar million millions, seasonally adjusted 3/18 Total: 7.2 million (7% below peak) Nonresidential ( below 08 peak) Residential (19% below 06 peak) Mar Mar. 2018: total 3. residential 4., nonresidential 2.7% Source: spending--u.s. Census Bureau; employment--bureau of Labor Statistics

3 3 Construction spending & employment, month % change 1 10% 0% - -10% Construction spending 12-month % change: Jan Mar /17 3/18 Private res: Total: 4% Total public: Private nonres: 12-month % change 7% 4% 0% Construction employment 12-month % change: Jan Mar /17 3/18 Residential: 4% Total: Nonres: Source: spending--u.s. Census Bureau; employment--bureau of Labor Statistics

4 4 Private residential spending: steady single-family growth, slower multifamily annual total, ; monthly (seasonally adjusted annual rate), 1/16 3/18; billion $ Dollars (in billions) 12-month % change $600 30% $500 $400 $300 $200 Private total (2 below Feb 06 peak) Single-family (40% below Feb 06 peak) 12 month % change 2 20% 1 10% 3/17 3/18: Single-family: 10% Private total: Improvements: 4% $100 $0 '06 '15 Improvements (8% below Feb 18 peak) Multifamily (9% below Apr 17 peak) '16 '17 '18 0% - -10% Multifamily: -8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau construction spending report

5 5 Residential spending forecast--2018: 6-9% growth (1 in 2017) SF: 8-10% growth in 2018 (9% in 2017); rising interest rates, tax law changes, student debt will limit number of potential buyers MF: near 0 change in 2018 (4% in 2017) occupancy rates, rents have leveled off; but permits are rising, implying rebound in 2019 millennials are staying longer in cities and denser suburbs where MF construction is bigger share of market than in outer suburbs nearly all MF construction is rental, not condo; more high-rises Improvements: 10-1 growth in 2018 (1 in 2017); unpredictable because Census lacks reliable data source; post-storm reconstruction may boost totals Source: Author

6 6 Population change by state, July 2016 July 2017 (U.S.: 0.7) decrease % % % 1.+ Top 5 ID 2. NV 2.0% UT 1.9% WA 1.7% FL 1. Bottom 5 HI -0. AK -0. IL % 1.4% 2.0% % % % % 0.7% % % % % -0.04% % % % % CT 0.0% DE 1.0% MD 0. NH 0. VT 0.0% MA 0. RI 0. NJ 0. DC 1.4% WV -0.7% WY -1.0% AK % -0.04% 1. HI -0. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7 7 State construction employment change (U.S.: 3.) 3/17 to 3/18: 38 states and DC up, 12 down Top 5 Over -10% -5. to -10% -0. to - 0% 0. to 5. to 10% Over 10% WV 1 NV 9% ID 9% MA 8% NM 8% Bottom 5 5 states - NE -4% KS -4% 7% 9% 9% 9% - 8% 7% % -4% -4% % - 1 4% - CT DE 4% MD NH VT MA 8% RI NJ - DC IA - ND Shading based on unrounded numbers HI - Source: BLS state and regional employment report

8 8 Metro construction employment change (U.S.: 3.) 3/17 to 3/18: 245 metros up, 46 unchanged, 67 down Over -10% -5. to -10% -0. to - 0% 0. to 5. to 10% Over 10% Top 5 Weirton- Steubenville, WV-OH 29% Merced, CA 2 Wenatchee, WA 2 Midland, TX 2 Lawrence-Methuen Town-Salem, MA-NH NECTA Division 2 Bottom 5 5 metro areas -9% Columbia, SC -1 Portland-South Portland, ME NECTA -1 Monroe, MI -17% Auburn-Opelika, AL -34% Source: BLS state and regional employment report

9 9 Construction workforce indicators (not seasonally adjusted) Construction hires, Mar Mar , , , , , ,000 0 '01'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Job openings, Mar Mar , , , , , ,000 0 '01'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Unemployment, Mar Mar % Production and nonsupervisory employees: avg. hourly earnings, 12-mo. % change, 3/01 3/18 500,000 0 '01'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 0% '01 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

10 10 Producer price indexes for key inputs, 4/17 4/18 Diesel fuel 4 Lumber & plywood Copper & brass mill shapes 1 10% Gypsum Steel mill products Ready-mix concrete Prepared asphalt and tar roofing 8% 7% 7% Flat Glass 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11 11 Labor & materials costs are rising faster than bid prices 12 month % change 4% 0% Average hourly earnings for all residential building employees 12-month % change, not seasonally adjusted: Jan March 2018 PPI for final construction demand PPI for residential construction 3/17 3/ % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

12 summary, 2018 forecast 2016 actual 2017 actual 2018 forecast Total spending 4% 2-7% Private residential % nonresidential 8% 1- Public to Goods & services inputs PPI 4% 4- Employment cost index % 3-4% Source: actuals: Census, BLS; forecasts: Author s estimates

13 13 AGC economic resources ( The Data DIGest: weekly 1-page (subscribe at monthly press releases: spending; PPI; national, state, metro employment yearly employment & outlook surveys, state and metro data, fact sheets: