July Municipal Auction Rate Securities 2010 update. Volume V. New York n Washington

Transcription

1 Research REPORT July 21 Municipal Auction Rate Securities 21 update Volume V No. 14 New York n Washington

2 Municipal Auction Rate Securities MUNICIPAL AUCTION RATE SECURITIES Auction rate securities (ARS) are long-term debt instruments typically sold by municipalities (municipal ARS) and by closed-end mutual funds as adjustable-rate preferred stock (ARPS) and are also sold by special purpose entities and others. The rates on ARS are set at periodical auctions based on the bids of potential buyers. This report concerns itself with only municipal ARS. As of the end of July 21, the auction rate market stood at an estimated $66.8 billion, with over 1,35 CUSIPs outstanding. Since the collapse of the municipal ARS market in February 28 there have been no new municipal ARS issuances, according to Thomson Reuters data. With a rolling three-month average of $1.2 billion retired per month since January 29, the market is currently shrinking by $15 billion annually; at the current rate and assuming no new issuance, the entire municipal ARS market would be retired in less than five years. Texas, Pennsylvania, and New York had the most municipal ARS outstanding, with $7. billion, $6.7 billion, and $5.1 billion outstanding, respectively, end-july 21. Of the $66.8 billion total of municipal ARS outstanding, 97.9 percent are revenue-based issuances, with relatively few general obligation issues remaining. By tax status, taxable bonds accounted for $27. billion, followed by alternative minimum tax (AMT) bonds ($23.4 billion), and finally tax-exempt bonds ($16.4 billion). SIFMA Special Report: Municipal Auction Rate Securities 1

3 Municipal ARS Outstanding & Retired Issues 1 Jan Jul. 21 9, $ Millions 85, 8, 75, 7, 65, 6, Number of CUSIPs Retired (right) Outstanding Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 1 Data from EMMA is spotty January 29 and prior months Sources: MSRB EMMA, FINRA TRACE, SIFMA , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, VRDO and ARS Issuance :Q2 $ Millions ARS VRDO Source: Thomson Reuters, SIFMA Traditionally, student loan issuers were a significant part of ARS market share, representing a third of all municipal ARS issuance in the ten year period from 1998 to 27, as well as a third of the total outstanding amount at end However, post-crisis student loan issuers are by far the largest category of municipal ARS outstanding, at $47. billion on 954 CUSIPs, or 7.4 percent of the market as of end-july, having retired at a far slower rate than other municipal ARS. Less of 2 percent of their January 29 outstanding amount was retired by July 21. By comparison, all other categories of municipal ARS have experienced substantial amounts retired since January 29; the transit, education, and utilities sectors have retired their municipal ARS issues the most quickly, with decreases of $3.1 billion (36.8 percent of their January 29 balance), $667.3 million (46.1 percent of their January 29 balance), and $15.1 million (55.6 percent of their January 29 balance) respectively. The market has retired principally through ARS-to-VRDO conversions (predominantly in 28, although also 29 and 21 to a much lesser extent), bond tenders, and calls % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Municipal ARS Breakdown by Sector Jan Jul. 21 General Nursing Utlities Education Transit Water Medical Other Student Jan. 129 Jul. 229 Jan Jul. 421 Municipal ARS Auctions 1 Jan Jun. 21 # of Auctions Sources: MSRB EMMA, SIFMA 25% 2% 15% 6, 5, 4, 3, 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Municipal ARS: Retirement by Sector Since January 29 Jul. 21 Percentage of January 29 Balance Utilities Transit Nursing Education Medical General Water Student Other ARS Outstanding Final Maturity Schedule Jul. 31, 21 USD Millions Sources: MSRB EMMA, SIFMA Set by Auction Maximum Rate All Hold Rate % Set by Auction (right) 1% 5% 2, 1, 1/1/29 5/1/29 9/1/29 1/1/21 5/1/21 1 Data from EMMA is spotty January 29 and prior months. Sources: MSRB EMMA, FINRA TRACE, SIFMA % Sources: MSRB EMMA, SIFMA 1 Merrill Lynch (now Bank of America-Merrill Lynch) estimates suggest a similar representation outstanding at end-27, with $86 billion estimated for student loan ARS and $166 billion for municipal, non-student loan ARS. Song, Han; Li, Dan. Liquidity Crisis, Runs, and Security Design: Lessons from the Collapse of the Auction Rate Municipal Bond Market SIFMA Special Report: Municipal Auction Rate Securities 2

4 Auction Rate Securities Interest Rate Results Jan Jun. 21 Percentage Municipal ARS Auction Summary Maximum Rate Set by Auction All Hold Rate 1/1/29 3/2/29 5/1/29 6/3/29 8/29/29 1/28/29 12/27/29 2/25/21 4/26/21 6/25/21 If CUSIPs have multiple auctions in a single month, the last auction result was plotted for the month. Sources: MSRB EMMA, FINRA TRACE, SIFMA Maximum Rate: Indicates that the interest rate is set at the highest rate allowable under the auction rate security program documents, typically as a result of a failed auction. Set By Auction: Indicates that the interest rate reflects the lowest interest rate at which all of the securities that have been offered for sale by current holders of the securities cleared the market, also known as the clearing rate. All Hold Rate: Indicates that all existing holders in an auction decided to hold at any rate. An all hold rate typically is a multiple of a specific market index as specified under the auction rate security program documents. Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Number of Auctions At All Hold Rate Number of Auctions Set to Maximum Rate Number of Auctions Set by Auction Minimum Rate (At All Hold) Minimum Rate (At Maximum Rate) Minimum Rate (At Set By Auction) Maximum Rate (At All Hold) Maximum Rate (at Maximum Rate) Maximum Rate (At Set by Auction) Sources: MSRB EMMA, SIFMA SIFMA Special Report: Municipal Auction Rate Securities 3

5 Municipal ARS Outstanding By Industry Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Industry Airport 1, , , , , , ,168. 1, , , , , , , , , , Other Development Education Facilities 1, , , , , ,27.3 1, ,163. 1, , , , ,11.1 1,51.4 1,51.4 1,51.4 1,51.4 1,51.4 1,32.1 1,32.1 General 2, , , , ,12.8 2,45.8 1, , ,75.5 1,75.5 1,75.5 1, , , , , , , , ,586.7 General Obligation 1, , , , , , ,692. 1, , , , , , , ,581. 1, ,53.5 1, ,524. 1,518.4 Higher Education 1,26.1 1,25.7 1, , , , , Housing Medical 1, , , , , , , , , ,68.8 7, , ,21.9 6, , ,14.2 5, , ,36.7 5,31.5 Multifamily Housing Nursing Pollution 3, , , , , , ,56.5 3, ,223. 3, , , , , , , , , ,35.2 3,29.3 Power 2,71.4 2,71.4 2, ,61.8 2,61.3 2,55.8 2,39.7 2,38.2 2, , , , , , , , , , , ,271.4 Student Loan 56, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,79.4 5, , ,48.1 Transportation 1, , , ,76.4 1, , , , , , , , Utilities Water 2,26.1 2,26.1 2,255. 2, , , , , ,11.3 2,83.6 1, , , , ,626. 1, , , , ,613.9 Grand Total 87, , , , , , ,916. 8, , ,3.4 77, , , , ,1.6 72, , , , ,88.9 Number of CUSIPs 1,767 1,766 1,753 1,729 1,75 1,671 1,645 1,626 1,6 1,578 1,558 1,538 1,51 1,486 1,476 1,465 1,456 1,431 1,386 1,37 of which are: Airport Other Development Education Facilities General General Obligation Higher Education Housing Medical Multifamily Housing Nursing Pollution Power Student Loan 1,132 1,132 1,129 1,124 1,118 1,96 1,94 1,93 1,86 1,71 1,63 1,6 1,44 1,34 1,3 1,26 1,25 1, Transportation Utilities Water SIFMA Special Report: Municipal Auction Rate Securities 4

6 Municipal ARS Outstanding By Issue Type Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Issue Type General Obligation 1, ,593. 1,586. 1,561. 1,561. 1,561. 1,56.9 1, , , , , , , ,451. 1, , , , ,422.2 Revenue 86, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,3.1 71, , , , , ,386.6 Grand Total 87, , , , , , ,916. 8, , ,3.4 77, , , , ,1.6 72, , , , ,88.9 Number of CUSIPs 1,767 1,766 1,753 1,729 1,75 1,671 1,645 1,626 1,6 1,578 1,558 1,538 1,51 1,486 1,476 1,465 1,456 1,431 1,386 1,37 of which are: General Obligation Revenue 1,738 1,737 1,724 1,71 1,677 1,643 1,617 1,598 1,572 1,55 1,531 1,511 1,474 1,459 1,449 1,438 1,431 1,46 1,361 1,345 Municipal ARS Outstanding By TaxableType Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Taxable Status AMT 29, , , , , ,61. 28, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,441.1 Tax Exempt 26, , , , , ,88. 22, ,9.3 21, ,23.9 2, , , , , , , , , ,41.2 Taxable 31,76. 31, , , , , ,24.9 3, ,135. 3,7.9 29, , ,7.7 28, , , , , , ,966.6 Grand Total 87, , , , , , ,916. 8, , ,3.4 77, , , , ,1.6 72, , , , ,88.9 Number of CUSIPs 1,767 1,766 1,753 1,729 1,75 1,671 1,645 1,626 1,6 1,578 1,558 1,538 1,51 1,486 1,476 1,465 1,456 1,431 1,386 1,37 of which are: AMT Tax Exempt Taxable SIFMA Special Report: Municipal Auction Rate Securities 5

7 Municipal ARS Outstanding By State Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 State AK AL 2,33.3 2, ,39. 2, , , , , , ,29.6 2, , ,86.8 2,59.8 1, ,765. 1,765. 1,765. 1,765. 1,759.1 AR AZ 1, , , , , , , CA 4, ,1.5 4,91.4 4,87.2 3, , , ,33.2 3,57.7 2,974. 2, , , , , , , ,55.1 2, ,519.2 CO 1, , , , , ,52.3 1,52.3 1,43.6 1, , , , , , , , , CT 1,11.5 1,11.5 1,11.5 1,11.5 1,11.5 1,11.5 1,11.5 1, DC DE 3, , , , , ,29.6 3,27.4 3,25.7 3,25.7 3,25.7 2, , , ,38.6 2,38.6 2,38.6 2,38.6 2,38.6 2,38.6 2,38.6 FL 2, , , , , , , , , ,26.7 2,26.5 2, , , , , , , ,23.7 2,23.7 GA HI IA 3, , , , , , , , , , , , ,98.8 2,98.8 2,98.8 2,98.8 2,98.8 2,98.8 2, ,949.3 IL 1, , , , , , ,627. 1, , , ,623. 1, , , , ,51.7 1, ,17.4 1,15.8 1,15.8 IN 2, , , , , , ,25.4 2,22.1 2,22.1 2, , ,64.5 2,64.5 2,48.5 2,21.6 2,21.6 1, , , ,981.1 KS KY 2,76.8 2,76.8 2,76.8 2, , , , , , , , , ,52.2 2,52.2 2,52.2 2, , , , ,519.6 LA 1, , , , , , , , , ,35.2 1,35.2 1,27.8 1, , , ,16.6 1,16.6 1,16.6 1,16.6 1,16.6 MA 2, , , , , , , , , , , , ,338. 2, , , , , , ,882.2 MD ME MI 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,193. 2, , ,187. 2,183.8 MN MO 4, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,351.9 MS 1,4.7 1,4.7 1,4.7 1,4.7 1,4.7 1,4.7 1, , , ,284. 1,264. 1,264. 1,264. 1,264. 1,264. 1,264. 1,264. 1,264. 1,264. 1,249.9 MT 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,268.8 NC 2, , , , , , ,34.8 2,34.8 2,34.8 2,21.9 2,8.1 1,994. 1,984. 1, ,93.1 1,93.1 1,91.9 1, , ,42.7 NE NH 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,571.2 NJ 2, , , , , , , ,195. 2,195. 2,195. 2, , , ,89.9 1,89.9 1,89.9 1,89.9 1,8.9 1,8.9 1,697.8 NM NV NY 6, , , ,11.1 6,11.1 6,11.1 6,9.8 5, ,93.4 5,93.4 5,89.5 5,52.3 5, , , ,83.4 5,78. 5,78. 5,76.6 5,76.6 OH 1,89.1 1, , , , , ,818. 1, , ,6.6 1, , , , , , ,42.2 1,42.2 1, ,355.7 OK OR PA 8,12.7 8,98.6 8,98.6 7, , , ,75.6 7, , , , , , , , , , , , ,687. PR RI SC 1, , , , ,636. 1, ,53.8 1, , , ,29.2 1,29.2 1,28.8 1,28. 1,28. 1,255. 1, ,21.6 1,21.6 1,2.3 SD TN 3,33. 3, , , , , , , ,199. 3, , ,48.9 3,38.7 2, , , , , , ,957.2 TX 8,12.1 8,92.9 8,28.9 8,6.4 7, ,49.5 7, , , ,43.1 7, , , , , , ,19.2 7,8.6 7,19.8 6,964.7 UT 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,616.1 VA VT 1, , , , , , ,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 1,65.8 WA WI WV Grand Total 87, , , , , , ,916. 8, , ,3.4 77, , , , ,1.6 72, , , , ,88.9 Retired ,331. 1, , , , , , , , Number of CUSIPs Outstanding 1,767 1,766 1,753 1,729 1,75 1,671 1,645 1,626 1,6 1,578 1,558 1,538 1,51 1,486 1,476 1,465 1,456 1,431 1,386 1,37 Number of CUSIPS Retired SIFMA Special Report: Municipal Auction Rate Securities 6

8 SIFMA RESEARCH Kyle Brandon Managing Director, Director of Research Sharon Sung Research Analyst INTERNS Jonathan White Summer Intern, Research Christella Dolmo Summer Intern, Municipal Division Anna Wu Summer Intern, Municipal Division SIFMA MUNICIPAL DIVISION Leslie Norwood Managing Director, Associate General Counsel, Co-Head of the SIFMA Municipal Division Michael Decker Managing Director, Co-Head of the SIFMA Municipal Division For more information, please visit The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) prepared this material for informational purposes only. SIFMA obtained this information from multiple sources believed to be reliable as of the date of publication; SIFMA, however, makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of such third party information. SIFMA has no obligation to update, modify or amend this information or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any such information becomes outdated, inaccurate, or incomplete. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) brings together the shared interests of hundreds of securities firms, banks and asset managers. SIFMA's mission is to support a strong financial industry, investor opportunity, capital formation, job creation and economic growth, while building trust and confidence in the financial markets. SIFMA, with offices in New York and Washington, D.C., is the U.S. regional member of the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA). For more information, visit SIFMA Special Report: Municipal Auction Rate Securities 7