Construction Spending, Labor & Materials Outlook
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1 Construction Spending, Labor & Materials Outlook AGC National & Chapter Leadership Conference Washington, DC, September 30, 2013 Ken Simonson Chief Economist, AGC of America
2 12 month % change 12 month % change Billion $ Billion $ Construction spending (seasonally adjusted annual rate SAAR ) Total construction, 1/08-7/13 (billion $) Private nonres, residential & public, 1/08-7/13 $1,200 $450 $800 Public $300 $400 Private Nonres Private Residential $150 Private Residential Private Nonres Public Latest 1-month change: 0.6% Latest 1-mo: (0.6%) (1.3%) (-0.3%) 12-month % change, 1/11-7/13 12-month % change, 1/11-7/13 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% -10% -10% Private Residential Private Nonres Public Latest 12-month change: 5.2% Latest 12-mo: (17.2%) (2.0%) (-3.7%) Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 2
3 Construction is growing, but unevenly 3 trends helping many sectors and regions: Shale gale Panama Canal expansion Residential revival 3 trends holding down construction growth: Government spends less on schools, infrastructure Consumers switch from stores to online buying Employers shrink office space per employee Source: Author 3
4 One (or many) bright spot(s): the shale gale Cody Baxter-Mancos Mancos Mowry Bakken Gammon Niobrara Antrim Marcellus/ Devonian/Utica Lewis Barnett- Woodford Pierre Woodford Barnett Eagle Ford Mulky New Albany Fayetteville Floyd-Neal Haynesville Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2008 to 2011
5 Shale s direct and indirect impacts on construction Onsite: Each well requires access road, site prep, pad, storage pond, support structures, pipes Nearby: Products, water require trucking, rail, pipeline, processing Local spending by drilling firms, workers, royalty holders Upstream: orders for fracking sand, rigs, compressors, pumps, pipe, tanks, trucks, railcars, processing facilities Downstream: Petrochemical, power, steel plants; LNG export terminals, fueling stations; LNG-powered vehicles Losers: coal; maybe wind, solar, nuclear & suppliers Source: Author 5
6 U.S. Post-Panamax Ready Ports Seattle & Tacoma Columbia River at Mouth, OR & WA Oakland Los Angeles/ Long Beach San Diego (with tide) Mobile New York-New Jersey Baltimore Norfolk Charleston (with tide) Savannah Jacksonville Miami Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 6
7 Panama Canal expansion s impacts on construction Ports: investing in dredging, piers, cranes, land access Nearby: Storage, warehouse, trucking, rail facilities Bridge, tunnel, highway improvements Inland: possible changes in distribution, manufacturing Source: Author 7
8 Private residential spending is still rising for now 12-month percent change in private single- and multifamily spending, 1/11-7/13 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% Multifamily Single-family Latest 12-mo: MF: 39% SF: 29% -15% -30% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 8
9 Housing outlook SF: rising for now but tight credit, selective labor shortages may limit increases MF: Upturn should last into and maybe through Vacancy rates near multi-year lows in most cities - Preference for urban living, fear of lock-in add to demand - Condo market has been slower to revive than rentals - Government-subsidized market likely to worsen Improvements: should benefit from rising SF sales Source: Author 9
10 Nonres totals (billion $, SAAR), share & 12-month change 7/13 Total Share 7/12-7/13 Nonresidential $560 billion 100 % -1 % Power (incl. oil & gas structures, pipelines) Educational Highway and street Commercial (retail, warehouse, farm) Manufacturing Transportation Health care Office Sewage and waste disposal Communication Lodging Other (amusement; water; public safety; conservation; religious): 8% of total -7 Source: Census Bureau construction spending report 10
11 Thousands Construction spending: public works (billion $, SAAR) $90 Highways (99.9% public) $30 Sewage/waste (98% public) $60 $20 $30 Public $10 Public Latest 1-mo. change: -1.1%, 12-mo.: -4% Latest 1-mo. change: 4.6%, 12-mo.: 4% $30 Amusement & recreation (57% public) $30 Water supply (96% public) $20 $20 $10 Public $10 Public Private Latest 1-mo. change: -2.7%, 12-mo.: -13% Latest 1-mo. change: 1.9%, 12-mo.: 10% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 11
12 Thousands Thousands Construction spending: institutional (private + state/local) $30 Total private education $30 State & local higher education $20 $20 $10 $10 Latest 1-mo. change: 2.6%, 12-mo.: -2% Latest 1-mo. change: 1.3%, 12-mo.: 7% $60 Hospitals (80% private) $60 State & local prek-12 education $40 $40 $20 Private State/local $20 Latest 1-mo. change: 0.4%, 12-mo.: -1% Latest 1-mo. change: -3.9%, 12-mo.: -19% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 12
13 Thousands Thousands Construction spending: industrial, heavy (billion $, SAAR) Power (87% private) $120 $90 $60 $30 Private transportation facilities Private $40 $30 $20 $10 Manufacturing (98% private) $120 $90 $60 $30 Latest 1-mo. change: 0.1%, 12-mo.: 6% Latest 1-mo. change: 3.3%, 12-mo.: 0% Public transportation facilities $40 $30 $20 $10 Latest 1-mo. change: -1.8%, 12-mo.: 3% Latest 1-mo. change: 4.1%, 12-mo.: 15% Private Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 13
14 Construction spending: developer-financed (billion $, SAAR) Retail (private) $80 $60 $40 $20 Warehouse (private) $40 $30 $20 $10 Office (private) $80 $60 $40 $20 Latest 1-mo. change: 3.4%, 12-mo.: 1% Latest 1-mo. change: 1.6%, 12-mo.: 5% Lodging (private) $40 $30 $20 $10 Latest 1-mo. change: -3.5%, 12-mo.: 11% Latest 1-mo. change: 6.1%, 12-mo.: 33% Source: Census Bureau construction spending reports 14
15 State construction employment change (U.S.: 3.0%) 8/12 to 8/13: 35 states up, 1 unchanged, 14 + DC down Over -10% -5.1% to -10% -0.1% to -5% 0% 0.1% to 5% 5.1% to 10% Over 10% 5% 5% 1% 2% 4% 6% 2% -4% 13% 3% 9% 5% 0.5% -1% -1% -1% 4% 7% 8% -1% 5% -0.1% -8% -2% 1% 12% -3% 2% -3% 3% 1% -3% 0.3% 5% -2% 3% 4% CT 7% DE -2% MD 2% NH 6% VT 0% MA 4% RI -4% NJ 4% DC -3% 4% HI 9% 4% 8% 6% Shading based on unrounded numbers Source: BLS state and regional employment report 15
16 Construction employment, July 2013 vs. peak US: construction -25% (-1.9 million); private nonfarm -1% (-1.4 million) States: only LA & ND at new peak, 46 states more than 10% below Metros: only 19 of 339 at new July peak, not seasonally adjusted Peak Off less than 10% Off more than 10% F Source: Author, from BLS national and state & area employment data ( 16
17 12-Month Percent Change in State Construction Employment (seasonally adjusted), January 2010-June 2013 Legend Over -10% -5.1 to -10% -0.1% to -5% 0% 0.1% to 5% 5.1% to 10% Over 10% State Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware* District of Columbia* Florida Georgia Hawaii* Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland* Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska* Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota* Tennessee* Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
18 Percentage of firms having a hard time filling key professional & craft worker positions all prof. & craft 21% Some prof. & craft 24% prof. only 7% no trouble 11% not hiring 8% craft only 28% Source: AGC Worker Shortage Survey, Aug
19 Hardest positions to fill (% of respondents that are having trouble filling) Professional - any 53% Project managers/supervisors 49 Estimators 35 Engineers 15 No trouble/not hiring 47 Craft - any 74% Laborers 35 Carpenters 34 Equipment operators 31 No trouble/don t employ crafts 26 Source: AGC Worker Shortage Survey, Aug
20 Construction vs. overall (un)employment, 8/10-8/13 Private sector added jobs since 2010, construction only since 1/11 Construction unemployment fell faster than industry added jobs Thus, workers are leaving for other sectors, school, retiring 25% 20% Unemployment rates (August 2010-August 2013) Construction Total Change in unemployment & employment (Not seasonally adjusted, August 2010-August 2013) Const. unem. -725,000 15% 17.3% Const. empl. 266,000 10% 5% 11.3% 9.1% 7.3% Nonfarm empl. 6,233,000 0% August '10 August ' In Millions Source: BLS employment, unemployment reports 20
21 % change 1/11-7/13 % change 1/11-7/13 Construction spending, labor & prices, 1/11-7/13 Spending +19% but jobs only +7%. How do they do it? Contractors charging slightly more: PPI +6% (industrial buildings) More hours per worker: aggregate hours +10% (+3% per employee) Implication: further spending growth will trigger bigger pickup in hiring 20% 15% 10% 5% 19% 7% 20% 15% 10% 5% 19% total 6% price change 12% real 10% 0% Spending Employment 0% Spending Total hours worked Source: Author, from Census Bureau (spending), BLS (employment, hours, PPI) 21
22 December 2010 = 100 Material & labor costs vs. office & highway bid prices, 12/10-8/ NHCCI PPI for materials 106 PPI for offices 104 ECI / Source: Author, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics for Producer Price Indexes (PPIs) and Employment Cost Index (ECI); Federal Highway Administration for National Highway Construction Cost Index (NHCCI) 22
23 Producer price indexes for key inputs, 1/11-8/13 (January 2011=100) 140 Steel mill products 140 Copper & brass mill shapes Gypsum products 140 Lumber & plywood Source: Author, based on BLS producer price index reports 23
24 Producer price indexes for key inputs, 1/11-8/13 (January 2011=100) 130 No. 2 diesel fuel 130 Concrete products Asphalt paving mixtures & blocks Prepared asphalt & tar roofing & siding materials Source: Author, based on BLS producer price index reports 24
25 Summary for 2013 Private nonres spending +5 to +10% (vs. 16% in 12): more manufacturing, warehouse, data centers; remodels of hotels, office, retail; flat power, health care, private ed Res +15% to +20% (vs. 15% in 12): MF very strong, SF?? Public: -3 to -6% (vs. -3% in 12): highways 0%, ed -5%; federal spending-down; states-level; local-small decline Total construction spending: +5 to +10% (vs. 9% in 12) Materials costs: +1 to +3% Dec.-Dec. (vs. 1.4% in 12) Labor costs: +2% to +3.5% Dec.-Dec. (vs. 1.6% in 12) Labor supply: limited craft, professional shortages Source: Author 25
26 Trends: Total construction spending: +6% to +10% per year - less SF housing, retail; declining public spending - new drivers: shale-based gas & oil; Panama Canal widening; more elderly & kids, fewer young adults Materials costs: +3% to +8% (vs. 2% to 3% for CPI) Labor costs: +2% to + 4% Labor supply: widespread shortages possible due to retirements, competition from other sectors, fewer vets Source: Author 26
27 AGC economic resources ( The Data DIGest: weekly 1-page (subscribe at: 5 monthly press releases: national, state, metro employment; spending; PPI State and metro data, fact sheets Website: 27
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