CRA Roundtable August 19, Megan Williams

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1 CRA Roundtable August 19, 214 Megan Williams Associate Economist and Manager, Oklahoma City Branch Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

2 The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy

3 GDP growth rebounded considerably in the second quarter, including in housing Growth in Components of Real GDP 15 Percent change from the previous period, SAAR Q4 213 Q1 214 Q Total GDP Consumer spending Residential investment Business investment Exports Government spending Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Macroeconomic Advisors

4 And monthly data on U.S. business activity continued to rise in July U.S. Private Payroll Employment and Business Indexes 6 Change from previous month, thousands Index Private Employment (left axis) ISM Manufacturing Index (right axis) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (right axis) Jul-6 Jul-7 Jul-8 Jul-9 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Source: Institute for Supply Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics

5 U.S. unemployment continues to fall and could reach long-term levels by 215 Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted 12 Percent 12 1 Jun. FOMC Forecast Ranges in Yellow Long Term Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FOMC

6 Inflation remains low and is expected to stay relatively subdued through Percent change, year-over-year PCE Inflation Index Jun. FOMC Forecast Ranges in Yellow Long Term Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FOMC

7 Most members of the Fed s monetary policy body expect higher interest rates by Percent Federal Funds Rate Year-end target Long Term Jun. FOMC Forecast Ranges in Yellow (12) (3) (1) Note Number of participants who project the initial increase will occur in the specified year in parenthesis Sources: Federal Reserve Board, FOMC

8 The Fed s balance sheet sits at nearly $4.5 trillion as the taper comes to an end Sources: Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5 4 $Trillions Assets MBS & agency debt Short term lending, targeted lending programs, and rescue operations Treasury securities Currency Reserves Other -3-4 Liabilities

9 The Oklahoma Economy Current and Long Term Trends

10 Oklahoma outpaced the U.S. and all but three other states in 213 GDP growth Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 213 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

11 Employment continues to rise and is back to or above pre-recession levels in the state Level of Payroll Employment Through July Index: Jan-8= OKC Metro Oklahoma Non-Metro OK U.S. Tulsa Metro Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

12 Unemployment is low in most of the state, especially northwest and south central Oklahoma County Unemployment Rates June 214 Source: OK Employment Security Commission

13 In June, hospitality and mfg. were up most from 213, while govt. and services lagged Oklahoma Job Growth by Industry July Percent change year-over-year 14 U.S. 12 OK 1 OKC Tulsa Total Hospitality Mfg. Edc. & Health Constr. Finance Trade & Transp. Energy State & Local Govt. Prof. & Bus. Services Fed. Govt Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 Along with energy employment, Oklahoma oil drilling has picked back up Source: Baker Hughes Oklahoma Active Drilling Rig Count Seasonally Adjusted 25 Number of rigs 25 2 Oil Natural Gas Aug-9 Aug-1 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14

15 Oklahoma housing permits remain stronger than in the nation, and stabilized recently Single-Family Housing Permits Seasonally adjusted 16, Number of permits, 3-month moving avg. 1,6 14, 12, U.S. (left axis) OK (right axis) 1,4 1,2 1, 1, 8, 8 6, 6 4, 4 2, 2 Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 Jun-7 Jun-8 Jun-9 Jun-1 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

16 Oklahoma per capita income relative to the nation is approaching early 198 s highs Oklahoma Per Capita Income as a percent of national average 12 Percent 1982: 99% 213: 93% : 53% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 And for the first time, Oklahomans have as much stock market wealth as the nation Real Per Capita Stock Market Wealth, Oklahoma vs. United States $135, Inflation-adjusted (213 dollars) $12, $15, $9, U.S. Oklahoma $75, $6, $45, $3, $15, $ Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

18 The OK energy sector s share of personal income is now as high as in the early 198 s Energy Sector Share of Personal Income 16 Percent US mining - old series US mining - new series OK mining - old series OK mining - new series Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Oil and gas states grow faster than the nation over time, but are more volatile Growth and Volatility of State Employment, Percent Average Annual Growth Standard Deviation in Growth U.S. Oil & Gas States (8) AK TX ND NM WY OK MT LA States Where Oil & Gas Is > 2.5 Times Bigger Than In the Nation Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 Energy s rise in OK contrasts with US growth in education, health, and business services 1 Percent Change in Personal Income Share by Industry, U.S. OK Mining Constr. Edc. & Health Farm Transp. & Utilities Prof. & Bus. Services Hospitality Finance Info. Govt. Trade Mfg Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

21 Since 22, jobs requiring high school or less have done much better in Oklahoma City Annual Employment Growth by Education/Training Required for Jobs Percent U.S. Actual OKC Metro Total, All Occupations Less than high school -.2 High school diploma Associate's degree or vocational award Bachelor's degree Graduate or professional degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22 Energy-related jobs made up a sizable portion of fast-growing, low education OKC jobs Examples of OKC metro jobs requiring high school education or less, that grew more than 1 percent from Education required Jobs Added Roustabouts, Oil and Gas Less than high school 9 Legal Secretaries High school diploma or equivalent 8 Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas Less than high school 55 Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas Less than high school 52 Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers High school diploma or equivalent 41 Surveying and Mapping Technicians High school diploma or equivalent 25 Pipelayers High school diploma or equivalent 24 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

23 This has kept the middle of the pay scale from dropping as much as in the country 2.5 Percent Annual Employment Growth by Average Pay of Occupations U.S. Actual OKC Metro Total, All Occupations Bottom quintile (<$2K in 22) 2nd-lowest quintile ($2-24K in 22) Middle quintile ($24-32K in 22) 2nd-highest quintile ($32-47K in 22) Top quintile (>$47K in 22) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

24 Summary U.S. economic growth rebounded in Q2, and the outlook appears favorable Oklahoma s economy continues to grow solidly, with low unemployment Oklahoma s reliance on oil and gas is back to historic highs, presenting both benefits and risks to the state

25 Questions and Links For more information about the Oklahoma City Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, visit our website at: For more information about the Oklahoma economy, subscribe to the quarterly Oklahoma Economist at: For Oklahoma economic data, see the new economic databooks: rsdata/regionaldatabook/index.cfm

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