The U.S. Economic Outlook
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- Judith Brittney Jacobs
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1 The U.S. Economic Outlook November, Economic Club of Sheboygan George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
2 Outlook themes Growth has rebounded following a soft first quarter. Labor markets continue to heal, and slack is diminishing. Measures of inflation remain below the % goal, but are forecasted to rise. Growth momentum across major economies has diverged. The Federal Reserve is preparing for policy normalization.
3 Real GDP grew. percent in Q. % chg Real GDP rose % chg.% in Q q/q (saar) y/y Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
4 Growth in Q was broadly balanced. % % C BFI Res NX G Inv - Private domestic final sales Contribution to real GDP growth rate - Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
5 Employment is rising at a robust pace. m/m chg, m ma m/m chg, m ma Nonfarm payroll employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
6 The unemployment rate is likely to reach its longer-run level in late. %, sa %, sa Midpoint of longer-run unemployment rate (FOMC - Sep. ) FOMC projections (Sep. ) Unemployment rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics
7 Job openings are at a -year high, but quits have remained flat. Mn Mn 8 Job openings Quits Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
8 The number of unemployed workers per job opening is at its lowest since the recession Unemployed workers per job opening Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics 7
9 Initial claims for unemployment insurance are at their lowest since the recession. Ths, sa 7 Ths, sa 7 8 Initial claims for unemployment insurance (weekly average) Source: Department of Labor, Haver Analytics 8
10 Retail sales are growing at a moderate pace. m % chg, sa - - m % chg, sa Retail Sales Core Retail Sales Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics 9
11 Consumer sentiment continues its upward trend. Index (98-Q=) 8 Index (98-Q=) Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (left) University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Index (right) Source: University of Michigan, Conference Board, Haver Analytics
12 The service sector is expanding rapidly, which bodes well for consumption spending. m % chg - Correlation =.88 Index Personal consumption expenditure (left) ISM nonmanufacturing index (right) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Institute for Supply Management, Haver Analytics
13 Business fixed investment has recently moved higher. %, sa %, sa Private nonresidential fixed investment, as a % of GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NBER, Haver Analytics
14 Industrial production has reached new highs. Index, sa (7=) Index, sa (7=) Industrial Production Index Industrial Production: Manufacturing Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics
15 Spending on capital equipment appears poised to further increase. $ Bn, mma, sa Nondefense capital goods ex. aircrafts $ Bn, mma, sa 7 7 Orders Shipments 8 Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics
16 Residential investment remains a relatively low share of economic activity. % (sa) % (sa) Residential fixed investment, as a % of GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
17 The housing recovery is expected to gather pace despite mixed recent data. Mn Mn Existing-home sales (left) Housing starts (right) Source: National Association of Realtors, Census Bureau, Haver Analytics
18 Growth momentum has diverged. Index (Jan- = ) US Manufacturing PMI China Manufacturing PMI Index (Jan- = ) 9 Euro Area Manufacturing PMI Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, ISM, Markit Economics, Haver Analytics 7
19 Growth is stalling in Europe. q/q %, saar Eurozone Spain - Italy Germany - 8 q/q %, saar IMF WEO Q/Q Projections Source: Eurostat, IMF, Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, Statistisches Bundesamt 8
20 And inflation is falling. m % chg, sa m % chg, sa - Eurozone Spain Italy Germany Source: Eurostat, Statistisches Bundesamt, Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, CPER 9
21 Inflation is picking up in Japan, but growth continues to stagnate. q/q %, saar Real GDP growth, left Inflation, right - 8 m % chg, sa IMF WEO Projections - Sources: Cabinet Office of Japan, IMF, and Haver Analytics
22 Monetary policies have also diverged. % % Federal Reserve Assets/GDP ECB Assets/GDP Bank of Japan Assets/GDP Sources: Bank of Japan, BEA, Cabinet Office of Japan, ECB, Eurostat, Federal Reserve Board, and Haver Analytics
23 The US Dollar has recently strengthened against major currencies. US$.... Stronger US$ Yen Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- US$ per Euro (left) Yen per US$ (right) Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics
24 Lower oil and gas prices will support consumer spending and dampen inflationary pressure. $/barrel $/gallon Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- WTI domestic spot price (left) Retail gasoline price (right) Source: Energy Information Administration/Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Haver Analytics
25 Inflation is projected to return gradually towards %. m % chg m % chg FOMC projections (Sep. ) Headline PCE price index Core PCE price index Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics
26 The slide in core inflation in - stemmed from weaker goods prices. m % chg - m % chg Core PCE price index: goods Core PCE price index: services - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FAME
27 The Federal Reserve s balance sheet continues to grow. Tn $ Assets Short term lending, targeted lending programs, and rescue operations MBS & agency debt Other Currency Reserves Treasury securities and other assets Liabilities 8 9 Tn $ Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics
28 The federal funds rate target remains near zero. % % Federal Reserve discount rate Federal funds target rate Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics 7
29 Most FOMC participants expect liftoff in Number of participants 8 Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming 8 Source: Federal Reserve Board 8
30 But there is a divergence of views about the pace of normalization. % Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End % 7 Longer run Source: Federal Reserve Board 9
31 Monetary Policy Normalization Principles and Plans The federal funds rate will remain the target, but new tools will be used to influence the funds rate. Holdings of US Treasury and agency-mbs securities will be reduced in a gradual and predictable manner. In the long-run, the FOMC plans on holding only the amount of securities necessary to efficiently and effectively implement policy.
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