The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook
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1 /8/ The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University November 8, Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* 98-Q 99-Q -Q 9-Q *in 99 or 9 Chained Dollars Quarters After Trough Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2 /8/ Contributions to Post Recession Recoveries Average Growth After Quarters Avg % Chg..7 GDP Personal Consumption Residential Investment Exports Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Q 99-Q -Q 9-Q Recession. Percent of GDP.%.%.% 8.%.%.%.% 9.% 8.9%.% Increasing Role of Exports % of GDP Quarters Post-Recession.%.7% 7.8%.% 98-Q 99-Q -Q 9-Q.%.% Quarters After Start of Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3 /8/ Percent of GDP Decreasing Role of Residential Investment % of GDP Quarters Post-Recession 7.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.7% 98-Q 99-Q -Q 9-Q.% Quarters After Start of Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 /8/ U.S. Coincident Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg N-Mfg Source: Institute for Supply Management GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5 /8/ (s) Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year Oct = +.7M (s) 7 US Payroll Job Change Month-to-Month Oct = Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6 /8/ U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Oct Oct Ranked by Size in Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Information Federal Govt. (s) Total =, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Sep Oct Ranked by Size in Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Information Federal Govt. (s) Total = Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 /8/ (s) 7 Initial Claims for Unemployment -Week Moving Average Nov 7 7 Source: Department of Labor (s) Initial Claims for Unemployment -Present -Week Moving Average Nov 7 7 Source: Department of Labor GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 /8/ U.S. Unemployment Rate % Oct =. IHS FCST Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics November $/barrel Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > Source: IHS Economics November GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 /8/ Consumer Confidence 8 Expectations Current Situation Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Consumer Prices - Forecast > > > Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics November GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 /8/ Interest Rates - 8 Forecast > > > 7 -Yr -Yr Treas Fed Source: IHS Economics November U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (s),,,,,,,,, Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 /8/ % Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics November U.S. Economic Performance % Forecast > > > > > > GDP Non-Res: Structures Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr Residential Fixed State & Local Federal Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics November GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 /8/ % U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 7 Forecast Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics November Annual Change in US Employed Workers* (s) Oct = +.8 M *employed workers include full-time, part-time, self-employed and contract workers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 /8/ U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Sep 8 Sep RECESSION L.I. C.I. 8. Sep-8 Sep-9 Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Source: The Conference Board The Washington Economy GMU Center for Regional Analysis
14 /8/ Washington MSA Leading Economic Index.% Month-Over-Year Percent Change.%.% -.%.% -Month Moving Average.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index.% Month-Over-Year Percent Change.%.% -.%.% -Month Moving Average.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 /8/ (s) Annual Job Change MOTYC Washington MSA (s) 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC District of Columbia GMU Center for Regional Analysis
16 /8/ (s) 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC Suburban yland (s) 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC Northern Virginia GMU Center for Regional Analysis
17 /8/ (s) Largest Job kets Job Change: Sep Sep Washington +, 8.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Largest Job kets Job Change: Sep Sep Washington +.7% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
18 /8/ Annual Job Change Washington MSA, - Annual Data (s) Annual Month over Year 8 8 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Sep Sep Washington MSA (s) Total =, (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
19 /8/ Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug Sep Washington MSA (s) Total = 7,7 (.) (.) Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 9 Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun 8 Sep Total: 7.8 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
20 /8/ - - Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 9 Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun Dec Sep Jun 8 Sep Total:.7 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change District of Columbia, - Annual Month over Year GMU Center for Regional Analysis
21 /8/ Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Sep Sep District of Columbia (s) Total 7, (.) (.) -... Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug Sep District of Columbia - (s) Total, (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 /8/ (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Suburban yland, - Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Sep Sep Suburban yland (s) Total 8,7 (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
23 /8/ Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug Sep Suburban yland - - (s) Total,8 (.) (.) (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, - Annual Month over Year GMU Center for Regional Analysis
24 /8/ Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Sep Sep Northern Virginia (s) Total 7, (.) (.) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug Sep Northern Virginia (s) Total -, (.) (.) -... GMU Center for Regional Analysis
25 /8/ Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC. U.S.. SMD. MSA. - NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) % Largest Job kets Ranked by Unemployment Rate Sep. US. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
26 /8/ (s) Metro Washington Annual Change in Employed Residents Month-Over-Year Annual Change Residents Employed Washington MSA (s) Annual Data - Annual Month over Year 9 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
27 /8/ WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 8-Feb Feb -Sep (s) Total 8 Total (s) Largest Job kets Job Change: 8 Washington +9, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
28 /8/ (s) Largest Job kets Job Change: 8 Washington + 8, (s) 8 Largest Job kets Job Change: Washington + 8,9 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
29 /8/ Housing ket Trends (.) (.) (.) Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year, MSA Oct = +.9% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
30 /8/, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Oct,,, -Month Moving Average 8,,,, Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Total Listings Per Sale Oct Each Year PW PG - LDN ARL DC MONT FFX Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
31 /8/ (s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $7.K Oct Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % - Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
32 /8/ % 8 9 Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % - Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban yland All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
33 /8/ % Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Detached % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Jul Nov Jul Nov Jul Nov Jul Nov Jul Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Oct % : DC = +7.; SM = -.; NV = +. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
34 /8/ Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Attached % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Jul Nov Jul Nov Jul Nov Jul Nov Jul Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Oct % : DC = +.9; SM = +.7; NV =. Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Condos % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Jul Nov Jul Nov Jul Nov Jul Nov Jul Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Oct % : DC = -.; SM = -.; NV =.9 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
35 /8/,,,,,,,, Washington MSA Building Permits, -Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8 Total Active Listings Per Sale Oct Each Year Metro Area Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
36 /8/ % - Economic Outlook (GRP), 7- Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: September Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) * D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change 99- =, Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (August ); *estimated based on first half-year performance. NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
37 /8/ % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 7 (Annual % Change) U.S. - Washington - Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: September Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
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