State of the Economy: US, New Mexico

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1 University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research State of the Economy: US, New Mexico New Mexico Women s Agenda Lobbying Workshop Advocates Working Session on Economic Security and Women s Health December 12, 2009 Dr. Lee A. Reynis, Director lreynis@unm.edu UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH 303 Girard Blvd. NE MSC / Onate Hall Albuquerque, New Mexico University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research Data Bank FOR- UNM Economic ing Service Census Project Demographic and economic estimates and projections, economic and fiscal impact analyses, government finance, surveys, policy studies, economic research BBER (505) Fax Data Bank Fax

2 The National Economy The US economy has been officially in recession since 12/07. This has been the deepest recession in decades. 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.9% Annual Growth in US Real Gross Domestic Product Chained 2000 Dollars 3.3% 2.7% 4.0% 2.5% 3.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.8% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 2.1% 2.9% 3.7% 2.9% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% -1.0% % -2.0% -3.0% -2.5% Global Insight,Nov 2009

3 Real Gross Domestic Product rose in the third quarter, consistent with opinions that the recession was over. However Composition of Real GDP Growth Over Previous Period SAAR Contrib : Composition of Real GDP Gross Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables Nondurables Services Residential Fixed Investment Nonresid Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Structures Change in Private Inventories 0.87 Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2009 (Second), Nov 24, 2009 US economy has lost 7.1 million jobs since start of the recession. Unemployment was 10.2% in Oct; now 10.0%. Thousands of persons 139, , , , , , , ,000 US Nonfarm Employment and Unemployment Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm SAAR Unemployment Rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% Unemployment Rate 131, , , % 4.0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

4 Financial markets have been in turmoil, credit difficult or impossible to get, asset prices have fallen. Stock Market Decline Was The Worst Since the 1930s Peak-to-Trough Percent Change in Dow Jones Industrial Average March 9 09 March 9 DJIA below 6,500 from peak of close to 14,000. Recently up over 10, Mar Aug 09 Commercial Paper Spreads Were Off The Charts Crisis in global financial markets is without precedent since Great Depression. Has complicated everything! US Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve took extraordinary efforts to shore up the banking and financial system. The federal funds target is effectively zero. Quarterly Interest Rates FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 3 MONTH T-BILL 10 YEAR T-BOND YEAR MORTGAGE RATE Global Insight, Nov 2009

5 Fed given room to maneuver by lack of inflationary pressures. Annual Rates of Inflation CPI-U and CPI-U CORE (Core Excludes Food and Energy) 4.5% 4.0% CPI-U 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% CPI-U CORE 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 2.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% % -1.0% Global Insight, Nov 09 Run-up in oil & gas prices after 2002 culminating in 2008 spike. After August 08, energy prices and forecasts fell off the butte. Oil Price - West Texas Intermediate Price per Barrel $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Global Insight, Oct 09 Natural Gas Average Wellhead Price Price Per Million BTU $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Global Insight, Oct 09

6 Many of the problems began in the housing industry where low mortgage rates and loose lending standards created a housing bubble. Housing has bottomed out but remains weak Mortgage Rate and US Housing Starts Millions of Units, SAAR Housing Starts (Million units) % Mortgage Rate (%) Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (%) Source: Global Insight, Nov Housing has become more affordable and stimulus package provided an inducement -- an $8,000 housing credit. Prices of Existing Homes in the US Percentage Change Quarter Over Quarter a Year Ago Median Price, Existing Houses FHFA Index Source: Global Insight, Nov 2009

7 Faced with falling home and other asset prices plus declining employment, households retrenched, cutting back on expenditures US Consumption Expenditures % Chg Quarter Over Year Ago And increased their savings -5.0 Global Insight, Nov 09 US Savings Rate Global Insight, Nov 09 Businesses cut back on investment in both equipment and software and structures Non-Residentail Fixed Investment Growth Over Previous Quarter SAAR FORECAST structures equipment & software Global Insight, Nov 2009

8 The rise in the dollar discouraged exports as did the world-wide recession. Exchange Rage with Major US Trading Partners Global Insight, Nov 2009 Dollar is now falling again and, while many US trading partners are in recession, economic recovery is underway in some areas. Real GDP Growth for US Major Trading Parners and Other Important Trading Partners (%) Major Trading Partners Other Important Trading Partners Global Insight, Nov 2009 Both exports and imports fell off sharply. Imports will recover more quickly than exports US Exports and Imports % Chg Over Previous Quarter Exports Imports Global Insight, Nov 09

9 FISCAL POLICY TO THE RESCUE... Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) American Recovery & Reinvestment Act $787 b but stimulus $561 b 09 &10: $143 b personal tax cuts ($48 b trans) $97 b targetted trans (eg extend unemp) $88 b corp tax cuts $149 b trans to states (Medicaid, other) $82 b infrastructure (partly thru states) Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan Comparison of the s US Federal Deficit/Surplus (Unified Basis) In $ Billions (160) (321) (248) (162) (375) (411) (455) -1,000-1,500 Nov-09 Aug-09 (1,417) (1,364) (1,088) (885) (696) -2,000 Assumes: Defense spending slows Gradual increase in income tax burden after 2010 Global Insight, Nov and Aug 09

10 Policies beginning to get traction. Economy turning around, with positive growth in Real GDP, profits up over 50%... However, 145 US Total Nonfarm Employment In Millions SAAR Glonsl Insight, Nov 2009 The New Mexico Economy

11 New Mexico is Not Recession Proof 10.0% 8.0% ANNUAL GROWTH IN NON AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT NEW MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES VERTICAL BARS INDICATE NATIONAL RECESSIONS US NEW MEXICO 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% SOURCE: US AND NM DEPARTMENTS OF LABOR US BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Current job losses in New Mexico virtually unprecedented Annual Growth in Nonfam Employment New Mexico and US 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% -1.0% 0.9% 2.8% 4.1% 5.0% 3.8% New Mexico US 2.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2%1.2% 1.4% 0.3% -0.3% 2.0%1.9% 1.6% % -5.0% -4.3% Source: FOR-UNM, November 2009 Global Insight, November 2009

12 7.0% Annual Growth in Nonfarm Employment US, New Mexico, Albuquerque 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% -1.0% -3.0% Albuquerque MSA New Mexico US -5.0% Source: Global Insight, Nov 09, FORUNM, Nov 09 In 2009, employment in Las Cruces expected to shrink by 2.2%, while Santa Fe experiences a 4.4% decline and Farmington, 3.7%. In 2010, employment should grow by 2.2% in Las Cruces, 1.2% in Santa Fe, but only 0.1% in Farmington. Recession more severe in rural areas. NM Nonfarm Employment Growth Metro and Non-Metro Areas, % Chg 4 Qs 6% 4% 2% 0% % -4% -6% Non Metros Metros -8% FORUNM, Nov 09

13 Quarterly Unemployment Rate US and New Mexico, SAAR New Mexico US Source: Global Insight, Nov 09; BBER FOR-UNM, Nov 09 New Mexico Claims for Unemployment Insurance 3,500 35,000 3,000 30,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Mar-07 Initial Claims Continuing Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

14 Where the jobs have been in Albuquerque and New Mexico COMPOSITION OF NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT, 2008 ALBUQUERQUE MSA, NEW MEXICO, US Albuquerque MSA New Mexico United States % % (1,000's) % Natural Resources & Mining a 20, % % Construction 28, % 57, % 7, % Manufacturing 22, % 35, % 13, % Wholesale Trade 13, % 23, % 5, % Retail Trade 44, % 96, % 15, % Transport, Warehsing & Utilities 10, % 24, % 5, % Information 9, % 16, % 2, % Financial Activities 18, % 34, % 8, % Professional & Business Services 64, % 108, % 17, % Educational &Health Services 51, % 114, % 18, % Leisure & Hospitality 39, % 86, % 13, % Other Services 12, % 30, % 5, % Federal Government 14, % 30, % 2, % State Government 25, % 59, % 5, % Local Government 40, % 107, % 14, % Total Nonfarm Employment 395, % 846, % 137, % a Combined with construction. Source: New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Global Insight Growth in NM Wage & Salary Employment This Decade, HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE LOCAL GOVERNMENT CONSTRUCTION PROF & BUSINESS ACCOMODATION & FOOD SERVICES STATE GOVERNMENT NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING RETAIL TRADE EDUCATIONAL SERVICES OTHER SERVICES ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES WHOLESALE TRADE TRANSP, WHSG & UTILITIES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT MILITARY EMPLOYMENT INFORMATION MANUFACTURING Change in Nonfarm Employment = 102,067-10,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Note: Figures for State & Professional & Business Services adjusted to reflect current ownership of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Source: NM Dept of Workforce Solutions, Bureau of Economic Analysis (military)

15 2009 The Worst Downturn in Decades Change in New Mexico Employment 2008 to 2009 Change in Nonfarm Employment = - 36,079 HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE MILITARY EMPLOYMENT, THOUSANDS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION LOCAL GOVERNMENT EDUCATIONAL SERVICES STATE GOVERNMENT OTHER SERVICES INFORMATION FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES WHOLESALE TRADE TRANSPORTATION, WAREHOUSING AND UTILITIES ACCOMODATION AND FOOD SERVICES NATURAL RESOURCES AND MINING RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES CONSTRUCTION -10,000-9,000-8,000-7,000-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 BBER FOR-UNM, Nov 09 There are hopeful signs. Federal fiscal stimulus (ARRA) is propping up govt spending and also employment However... Change in New Mexico Employment 2009 to 2010 Change in Nonfarm Employment = - 2,545 HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PROF & BUSINESS MILITARY EMPLOYMENT, THOUSANDS ACCOMODATION & FOOD SERVICES OTHER SERVICES ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION WHOLESALE TRADE EDUCATIONAL SERVICES INFORMATION MANUFACTURING FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES STATE GOVERNMENT RETAIL TRADE TRANSP, WHSG & UTILITIES LOCAL GOVERNMENT NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING CONSTRUCTION -10,000-9,000-8,000-7,000-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 BBER FOR-UNM, Nov 09

16 Falling commodity prices have taken a toll on the mining and extractive industry and on State revenues. 22,500 21,500 20,500 New Mexico Mining Employment 19,500 18,500 17,500 16,500 15,500 14,500 13,500 12, Source: BBER FOR-UNM, Nov 09 New Mexico Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing, an important sector with a shrinking workforce 45,000 43,000 41,000 39,000 37,000 35,000 33,000 31,000 29,000 27, % 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Annual % Change in Manufacturing Employment Albuquerque MSA, New Mexico, US Albuquerque New Mexico Source: FOR-UNM, Nov 09 And an industry subject to considerable volatility -20.0% US Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics & NM Dept of Workforce Solutions Global Insight, Nov 09; FORUNM, Nov 09

17 New Mexico Exports to Other Countries Quarterly, in Millions of Dollars TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS Source: MISER Construction The prolonged boom and collapse Construction Employment New Mexico and Albuquerque 70,000 60,000 50,000 New Mexico Albuquerque 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: FOR-UNM, Nov 2009

18 FW Dodge awards for non-building contracts were up 56% in the 9 mos of 09 while non-res building were up 34%. 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, NEW MEXICO DOLLAR VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION AWARDS ($000,000) NON-BUILDING mo NON-RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL NEF $1.4 b SOURCE: FW DODGE 8,000 New Housing Construction City of Albuquerque Housing Units Permitted 7,000 6,000 5,000 New Multifamily 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 New Single Family Source: BBER FORUNM, Nov. 2009

19 Sales of Existing Homes Albuquerque Metropolitan Board of Realtors October 2009 Sales in October Sales Year-to-Date Class % chg % chg R % R % Total % 6,252 6, Average Price, Oct 09 Median Price, Oct 09 Class % chg % chg R1 $ 209,614 $ 224, % $ 170,000 $ 189, % R2 $ 151,745 $ 168, % $ 151,205 $ 166, % Changes in Housing Prices - FHFA Western MSAs, Quarter Over Quarter Year Ago Albuquerque Santa Fe Phoenix Las Vegas Denver Tucson % Change Federal Housing Finance Authority

20 12.0% 10.0% Annual Growth in Personal Income New Mexico and US New Mexico US 9.5% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 7.0% 6.8%6.9%6.9%6.9% 6.0% 6.0% 5.2% 4.8% 2.7% 6.8% 7.2% 6.5% 6.0% 5.0% 3.7% 1.9% 3.2% 4.5%4.4%4.3% 0.0% -2.0% -0.5% % Source: FOR-UNM, Nov 09 Global Insight, Nov 09 NEW MEXICO PER CAPITA INCOME AND WAGES AS A PERCENT OF THE US 100% 95% 90% Energy Boom PER CAPITA INCOME AVERAGE WAGE 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

21 New Mexico Economy Quarterly Nonfarm Employment Growth % Growth Year-Over-Year Source: UNM BBER FOR-UNM, Nov 09 Economic Outlook for New Mexico The New Mexico job growth has been declining since the first quarter of 2006, when y-o-y employment growth was 3.2%, and is now negative. Reflecting the same currents that have sent the US and global economy into a deep recession of undetermined length, the NM economy is now expected to be experience at least 7 quarters of employment declines before recovering in Growth has slowed and all MSAs are now experiencing yoy employment declines. The Albuquerque economy experienced flat or negative growth in 2008, and is expected to sustain a 4.2% loss in wage and salary employment this year. Among the other metros, the contraction is most extreme in Santa Fe, where employment should fall 4.4% this year but grow 1.2% next. The recession appears to be deeper and longer in the non-metro areas. Statewide and in Albuquerque, health care continues to lead in terms of job growth. Local government (tribal,casinos and associated) was strong but no longer. Contributing to the downturn was manufacturing, construction, and mining, where job growth is showing large declines in 2009, but the contractions is now very broad based across industries and geographically. Major new employers include Fidelity Investments (HR services), Hewlett Packard (technical support), & Schott (solar equipment mfg), all building new facilities in the Albuquerque MSA. State and local revenue outlook is dismal. State grapplng with a $650 m shortfall.

22 Current Economic Crisis and Women Percent of Industry Workers Who Are Female, United States New Mexico Total 46.7% 47.0% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining: 18.4% 15.8% Construction 9.3% 9.7% Manufacturing: 29.5% 27.4% Wholesale trade: 29.9% 29.0% Retail trade: 49.4% 51.2% Transportation and warehousing: 25.0% 24.9% Utilities 22.0% 24.6% Information: 43.5% 44.3% Finance and insurance 55.7% 66.4% Real estate and rental and leasing 47.6% 48.0% Professional, scientific, and technical services 44.6% 43.2% Management of companies and enterprises 51.8% 27.3% Administrative & support & waste management services 39.3% 40.1% Educational services 68.7% 68.9% Health care and social assistance: 78.9% 77.6% Arts, entertainment, and recreation 45.9% 47.0% Accommodation and food services 53.7% 55.8% Other services, except public administration: 52.6% 52.6% Public administration 44.8% 43.8% US Census Bureau, American Community Survey,

23 11.0 US Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Women Total J 05 A J O J 06 A J O J 07 A J O J 08 A J O J 09 A J O Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Ages of these people who have lost their jobs US Unemployment Rate by Age Seasonally Adjusted Age Age Age Age 55 and Over Percentage Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

24 Unemployment Rates by Gender and Age US and New Mexico United States New Mexico Male Female Male Female 16 to 19 years: 22.3% 18.6% 17.1% 16.4% 20 to 24 years: 11.7% 10.2% 10.9% 13.0% 25 to 44 years: 4.8% 5.7% 4.2% 5.6% 45 to 54 years: 4.1% 4.4% 3.6% 3.8% 55 to 64 years: 3.1% 3.7% 2.0% 2.8% 65 to 74 years: 4.0% 3.7% 3.4% 4.2% 75 years and over: 3.9% 3.7% 3.8% 0.0% Source: American Community Survey, 2008

25 Women and Men in the US Civilian Labor Force Seasonally Adjusted and Indexed to Jan Women Men 0.90 J 05 A J O J 06 A J O J 07 A J O J 08 A J O J 09 A J O Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

26 Impacts of the Economic Downturn Monthly Stats from the NM Human Services Dept. Government Revenues Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Medicaid TANF Cash Assistance Education Works NM HSD Monthly Statistical Report, Sept 09

1,257 Mineral Taxes 626 440 357 385 Rents & Royalties 610 544 335 407 Source: Presentation by DFA

27 State Revenues: Recurring General Fund (December 09) $Millions FY 08 FY09 FY10 FY 11 Actual Prelim Total $6,015 $5,320 $4,823 $5,121 General Sales 1,923 1,902 1,760 1,815 Income 1,568 1,121 1,150 1,257 Mineral Taxes Rents & Royalties Source: Presentation by DFA Secretary Katherine Miller to the Legislative Finance Committee on the October 2009 Consensus Revenue Estimates.

New Mexico Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook

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