New Mexico Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook. Senate Finance Committee January 10, 2018
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1 New Mexico Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook Senate Finance Committee January 10, 2018
2 New Mexico Economic Narrative For most of post-recession, the state s economic narrative has been driven by external factors oil boom & bust, Obamacare, even Intel job losses and uncertainty at national labs. In recent months, the state s economic narrative is less and less about external factors oil prices and production are relatively stable, the economic gains due to Obamacare are largely absorbed (and now the state is beginning to pay its share). Where does the state on its own?
3 New Mexico Economic Current Situation QCEW says NM lost 537 jobs (-0.1%) in 2017Q1 after a loss of 2,500 (-0.3%) First loss in two consecutive quarters since CES shows +0.7 for both 2016Q4 & 2017Q1, and +0.9% and 0.7% for 2017Q2 and Q3; BBER estimates 0.2% for 2017Q2 and Q3. Changing pattern in 2017Q1 Mining -1,390 jobs, Healthcare +1,480 (in 2016, Mining -5,700 jobs and Healthcare +4,625 jobs). Personal income growth weak (2.0% in 2017Q1 & Q2). Compared to past two years, wage & salaries less of a drag (1.9%; 2016=0.5%) and transfers no longer a positive factor (-0.1%; =8.6%). Pressure on public finances less severe Gross Receipts up 6.9% in 2017Q2; oil prices & production up.
4 Recent employment data based on surveys is strong. BBER is more cautious. 2.0% 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1.5% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% BBER Estimates -0.5% CES (Survey) QCEW (Actuals) Sources: CES data available at time of FOR-UNM forecasts (pre-benchmarked); QCEW data current. 4
5 New Mexico s employment comparisons are improved. 2015Q4 Growth y/y Rank 2016Q4 Growth y/y Rank 2017Q4 Growth y/y Rank Total Nonfarm 0.3% % % 18 Total Private 0.5% % % 12 Mining -19.4% % % 37 Construction 0.0% % % 10 Manufacturing -0.1% % % 38 Wholesale Trade -0.5% % % 35 Retail Trade 0.6% % % 12 Transportaion & Utilities -0.3% % % 8 Financial Activities 0.5% % % 2 Professional & Business Services 1.0% % % 23 Education & Health Services 4.4% 5 3.9% 6 1.3% 35 Leisure & Hospitality 2.4% % % 6 Total Government -0.2% % % 46 Local Government 0.2% % % 47 State Government -1.1% % % 40 Federal Government 0.6% % % 16 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES. 5
6 Gains/Losses in Healthcare and Mining are moderating. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. 6
7 Only recently are signs positive in both Albuquerque and Non-Metro regions 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000-6,000 Albuquerque Farmington Las Cruces Santa Fe Non Metro Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 7
8 General Fund benefitting from higher Gross Receipts and oil revenues (FY18 v FY17, through October) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 Gross Receipts Compensating Tax $6.6 $114.0 Selective Sales * Personal Income Tax Corporate Income Tax $22.8 $22.2 $24.2 Oil & Gas Revenues * $81.1 License Fees $1.0 Investment Income $22.0 Millions $ Source: NM Legislative Finance Committee 8
9 Increased drill rig activity and oil production with WTI prices near $60/barrel Source: EIA, Baker Hughes, ONGARD, IHS Global Insight. 9
10 Gain/Loss in Medicaid Transfers (Millions $) Health Care Employment Growth % Sharp decline in Medicaid transfers, slowing job growth in Healthcare in New Mexico $1, % $1,500 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 $0 -$300 -$ % 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Increase in Medicaid Transfers - Left Healthcare job growth -- Right Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table SQ35. 10
11 Residential Sales Units permitted for Construction Increased residential sales, but no growth in new home building 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Bernalillo Co Santa Fe Co Dona Ana Co San Juan Co Oil Patch Other Building Permits (Right) Source: NM Realtors Association; BBER 11
12 Economic Outlook
13 New Mexico Economic Outlook: Weaker near term forecast due to disappointing 2017Q1 QCEW employment data, slow single family housing construction, and weaker IHS Global Insight forecast, especially for incomes. Jobs forecast gain 4,500 (0.6%) jobs in 2017Q4, closing the year +1,750 jobs (0.2%). Jobs forecast gain 6,900 jobs (0.9%) 2018, and 8,725/yr (1.1%/yr) in This forecast is ~ 1,600 jobs (-0.2%) lower July forecast. Income forecast marked down further 2.7% in 2018, average 4.2% in This forecast marked down -0.8% in 2018 and -0.3% due to weaker jobs forecast, lower investment/proprietors incomes (from IHS Global Insight) and very weak transfers. Oil production to increase gradually, given slightly weaker price outlook. Impacts of pessimistic (20%) greater than optimistic (15%) scenario.
14 US Employment Forecast 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% January 2018 October 2017 Global Insight, January 2018 and October
15 New Mexico Employment Forecast 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% January 2018 October 2017 Source: BBER FOR-UNM, January 2018 and October
16 Job Growth by Sector, 2018 Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transport. & Warehsng. Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Leasing Prof.& Tech. Svs. Admin. & Waste Mgmt. Educ. Svs. Healthcare & Soc. Asst. Arts & Recreation Accom. & Food Svs. Local Govt. State Govt. Fed. Govt. (1,000) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transport. & Warehsng. Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Leasing Prof.& Tech. Svs. Admin. & Waste Mgmt. Educ. Svs. Healthcare & Soc. Asst. Arts & Recreation Accom. & Food Svs. Local Govt. State Govt. Fed. Govt. -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: BBER FOR-UNM, January
17 Annual Job Growth by Sector, Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transport. & Warehsng. Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Leasing Prof.& Tech. Svs. Admin. & Waste Mgmt. Educ. Svs. Healthcare & Soc. Asst. Arts & Recreation Accom. & Food Svs. Local Govt. State Govt. Fed. Govt. (3,000) 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transport. & Warehsng. Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Leasing Prof.& Tech. Svs. Admin. & Waste Mgmt. Educ. Svs. Healthcare & Soc. Asst. Arts & Recreation Accom. & Food Svs. Local Govt. State Govt. Fed. Govt. -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% Source: BBER FOR-UNM, January
18 New Mexico Employment Gains/Losses by Region, Source: BBER FOR-UNM, January
19 New Mexico Income Forecast 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% January 2018 October 2017 Source: BBER FOR-UNM, January 2018 and October
20 Millions $ New Mexico Income growth by component 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 Private Wages & Salaries Dividends/Interest/Rent Nonfarm Proprietors' Income Other Labor Income Government Wages & Salaries Transfer Payments Farm Proprietors' Income Social Security Adjustment Source: BBER FOR-UNM, January
21 New Mexico Employment Forecast, Alternative Scenarios 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% Baseline Scenario Pessimistic Scenario Optimistic Scenario Source: BBER FOR-UNM, January
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