A summary of regional economic indicators for the state of Colorado

Transcription

1 THE ECONOMIC DATABOOK A summary of regional economic indicators for the state of JULY 24, 217 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of KANSAS CITY SUMMARY OF CURRENT COLORADO ECONOMIC CONDITIONS In, the unemployment rate was 2.3 percent in June, and total payroll employment grew 2.1 percent compared to the previous year. Employment growth was broad-based across industries, with the strongest gains in the transportation and warehousing and other services sectors. nominal personal income grew 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 217 compared to the previous year, with workplace earnings up 4.3 percent. Home prices increased 1.7 percent in the first quarter of 217 compared to a year ago, while single-family and multifamily permits recorded a 12.1 and 2.5 percent change, respectively, year-to-date through May 217. In April 217, crude oil production was down.6 percent over last year, while rig counts were above year-ago levels. exports were 9.9 percent higher in the first quarter of 217 compared to the same period last year. This databook provides current economic indicators to help monitor trends and allow comparison of past information. These indicators include: employment; employment by industry; county and state unemployment; personal income; home prices; housing indicators; manufacturing activity; oil, gas and coal production; and exports. These indicators can be found on the following pages. Alison Felix is Vice President and Denver Branch Executive. In this role, Felix is the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City s regional economist and lead officer in, Wyoming and northern New Mexico. She is responsible for briefing the Kansas City Fed s President on the economy in these states and the Tenth District. 1

2 June 217 Unemployment Rates Unemployment Rates REGIONAL LABOR MARKET INDICATORS June 217 Unemployment Rate 4.4% 2.3% Unemployment Rate, Last Year 4.9% 3.4% 12% 1% 8% Unemployment Rates, 1 Over 6% 5 to 6% 4 to 5% 3 to 4% Under 3% 6% 4% 2% % Note: Gray bars indicate recession. June 217 Payroll Employment, Year-over-Year Percent Change Payroll Employment June 217 Jobs (Thousands ) 146,44. 2,647. Change from Last Year 1.6% 2.1% Over 3% 2 to 3% 1 to 2% to 1% Under % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Payroll Employment, Year-over-Year Percent Change -8% Note: Gray bars indicate recession. 1 2

3 May 217 Unemployment Rates & Civilian Labor Force COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT Over 5% 4 to 5% 3 to 4% 2 to 3% Under 2% Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) 4.3% 159, Garfield , Custer Huerfano Weld Saguache Dolores Rio Grande Denver Conejos Arapahoe Fremont Crowley Pueblo Jefferson Otero Logan Rio Blanco Elbert Mesa La Plata Las Animas Larimer Delta Boulder Montezuma Broomfield Costilla Chaffee Alamosa Clear Creek Teller Bent San Juan Morgan Montrose Park El Paso Sedgwick Moffat Douglas Adams Lincoln Ouray Hinsdale Archuleta Gilpin Pitkin San Miguel Prowers Mineral Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 3

4 COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT May 217 Unemployment Rates & Civilian Labor Force Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) Percent Unemployed Labor Force (Thousands ) 51 Lake Baca Washington Yuma Gunnison Grand Kiowa Routt Cheyenne Eagle Kit Carson Jackson Phillips Summit Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 4

5 SELECTED EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS 12 Payroll Employment Ten-Year Index of Growth Payroll Employment Jun '7 Jun '9 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun '17 Jobs (Thousands ) 146,44. 2,647. Change from Last Year 2, (Thousands) June 217 Share of U.S. Employment 1.8% 118 Labor Force Dynamics Ten-Year Index of Growth, Employed (Household Survey) Unemployed Jun '7 Jun '9 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun ' Jun '7 Jun '9 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun ' Labor Force Unemployment Insurance Claims Jun '7 Jun '9 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun ' Jun '7 Jun '9 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun '17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Department of Labor/Haver Analytics 5

6 SELECTED EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS Payroll Employment by Industry Trans. & Warehousing Other Services Leisure & Hospitality Healthcare & Social Assist. Retail Trade Prof. & Business Services State Government Financial Activities Wholesale Trade Federal Government Information Educational Services Manufacturing Local Government Construction Utilities Mining & Logging June 217 Percent Change Year-over-Year -.2% -.4% -1.2% -4.3% 5.6% 3.8% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 2.9% 2.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5%.4%.3%.1% Ten-Year Index of Growth 115 Construction Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 Share of Jobs 4.7% 5.8% 11 Manufacturing 19 Mining & Logging Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 Share of Jobs %.5% 1 5.4% 7 Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17.8% 115 Retail Trade Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 11 Wholesale Trade % 4.% % 9 Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 4.% 115 Utilities 12 Transportation & Warehousing Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17.4% % 9.3% 8 Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 2.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 6

7 SELECTED EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS Payroll Employment by Industry Ten-Year Index of Growth, Information Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 15 Financial Activities Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 13 Professional & Business Services Share of Jobs 12 Share of Jobs % 14.1% 1 2.7% 9 Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun ' % 16 Healthcare & Social Assistance % 13.3% % 1 Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun ' % 16 Private Educational Services 13 Other Services Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 13 Leisure & Hospitality Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun ' % 3.9% 1 1.5% 9 Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 4.1% 13 Federal Government % 1.9% % 9 Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 2.1% 145 State Government 115 Local Government Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun ' % 9.9% 1 4.4% 95 Jun '7 Jun '12 Jun '17 9.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 7

8 WAGE & INCOME INDICATORS 15% Nominal Personal Income Growth Contributions to Percent Change Year-over-Year, 15% 1% 1% 5% 4.2% 5% % % -5% '12Q1 '13Q1 '14Q1 '15Q1 '16Q1 '17Q1 Contributions to Social Insurance Transfer Payments Dividends, Interest & Rent Residence Adjustment Earnings by Place of Work Total Personal Income 217Q1 Percent Change Year-over-Year Total Personal Income 3.7% 4.2% Share of Personal Income Earnings by Place of Work 3.8% 4.3% 71.8% 73.7% Social Insurance Contributions* -4.2% -4.9% -7.8% -7.9% Residence Adjustment 1.3%.2% Dividends, Interest & Rent 3.6% 4.8% 18.6% 2.5% Transfer Payments 3.9% 3.2% 17.5% 13.4% -5% *Subtracted from personal income. $29 $28 $27 Real Average Hourly Wage Current Dollars, $29 $28 $27 June 217 Average Hourly Wage $26.23 $26.73 $26 $25 $26 $25 Real Change from Last Month.1% -1.5% Last Year.8% -1.8% $24 $24 $23 $23 Jun '12 Jun '13 Jun '14 Jun '15 Jun '16 Jun '17 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 8

9 SELECTED HOUSING INDICATORS FHFA Purchase-Only Home Price Index Ten-Year Index of Growth, % 12% Rental Vacancy Rates 15% 12% 9% 9% 1 1 6% 6% 6 6 '7Q1 '9Q1 '11Q1 '13Q1 '15Q1 '17Q1 3% 3% '7Q1 '9Q1 '11Q1 '13Q1 '15Q1 '17Q Housing Permits Ten-Year Index of Growth, Summary Statistics Prices (217Q1)* 6.% 1.7% Vacancy Rates (217Q1) 7.% 4.4% Permits (Year-to-Date )* Single Family 1.5% 12.1% Multifamily -.8% 2.5% May '7 May '9 May '11 May '13 May '15 May '17 *Percent change year-over-year. Top 1 Counties for Permit Activity Year-to-Date through May Denver El Paso Douglas Arapahoe Larimer Weld Jefferson Adams Boulder Mesa 217 Single Family Multifamily 216, Year-to-Date 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 4, 4,5 5, 5,5 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) & Census Bureau/Haver Analytics 9

10 SELECTED ENERGY INDICATORS Energy Activity Oil & Gas Rig Counts 14 Number of Active Drilling Rigs Jun '7 Jun '9 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun '17 June 217 Rig Count Change from Last Month 38 5 Last Year Share of U.S. Activity 3.9% 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, Crude Oil Production Thousand Barrels per Month, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, April 217 Production 272,94 9,537 Change from Last Month -.5% 6.4% Last Year 1.6% -.6% 2, 2, Apr '7 Apr '9 Apr '11 Apr '13 Apr '15 Apr '17 Share of U.S. Activity 3.5% 4, 3, 2, Coal Production Thousand Short Tons, 4, 3, 2, June 217 Production 68,888 1,74 Change from Last Month.9% 9.4% Last Year 12.6% -5.8% 1, 1, Share of U.S. Activity 1.6% Jun '7 Jun '9 Jun '11 Jun '13 Jun '15 Jun '17 Source: Baker Hughes & Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration/Haver Analytics 1

11 Global Exports Ten-Year Index of Growth, Q1 Exports (Millions) $383,451.4 $2,54.9 Change from SELECTED TRADE INDICATORS Last Quarter 3.3% 7.% Last Year (year-to-date ) 7.3% 9.9% 1 1 Share of U.S. Activity.5% '7Q1 '9Q1 '11Q1 '13Q1 '15Q1 '17Q1 216 Exports as a Percent of GDP 7.8% 2.3% Exports Year-to-Date through 217Q1 Percent Change Year-over-Year Over 1% 5 to 1% 25 to 5% to 25% -25 to % Below -25% Not Applicable Top Markets Share Top Exports Share 1 Mexico 17.1% 1 Computers & Electronics 23.7% 2 Canada Food China* Chemicals & Rare Earth Metals 1. 4 Japan Machinery (except Electrical) South Korea Misc. Manufactures Malaysia 4. 6 Transportation Equip Germany Fabricated Metal Products Netherlands Electronic Equip. & Appliances Switzerland Plastics & Rubber Products United Kingdom Primary Metals 1.9 *Includes Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macao. Source: Census Bureau, WISERTrade & Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 11

12 NOTES Pages 2-4: County unemployment rates typically lag state data releases by one month. Gray bars show recessionary periods as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The "official" and most commonly reported unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. These data are reported from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey, or commonly called the "Household" survey. Pages 2 and 5: Nonfarm employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey are commonly called "Payroll" employment data. Estimates from this survey are revised throughout the year and a major revision or "benchmark" of the data occurs in March of each year. "Payroll" and "Household" surveys are released monthly, providing the most current estimates of employment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Because methodologies differ between surveys, employment estimates also differ. For more information, visit: Initial claims show monthly applications for initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits. Pages 6 and 7: Payroll employment by industry is shown for each of the major two-digit North American Industrial Classification System industries. Data Revisions Most data are revised periodically to correct for errors and incorporate additional information as it becomes available. Data shown in this report are subject to change. Seasonal Adjustments Most data are seasonally adjusted to remove variance caused by seasonal fluctuations in economic activity. Data in this report show the seasonal adjustments of data publishers where available. In other cases, Census X- 12 adjustments were applied. Regional Economic Analysis Sign up to receive The Economic Databook and other publications each month via using the link below: For regional economic analysis on the state of, read the latest issues of The Rocky Mountain Economist. Page 8: Personal income provides a measure of all income received by residents of a given geographic area. Data shown are in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation). Transfer payments include social benefits such as unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Medicaid. Contributions to social insurance are subtracted from personal income. These contributions include taxes paid by businesses and employees that support social insurance programs such as unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Medicaid. The residence adjustment adds income received outside of a recipient's state of residence and makes a corresponding subtraction from the area where this income was earned or received. Real average hourly wages are calculated as total earnings divided by total employment for a given geographic area. Data are adjusted for inflation using the consumer price index for all urban areas (CPI-U) and are indexed to the most current month of data. Page 9: Home price indices estimate regional growth in home values based on repeat sales data for detached single family residential properties. Monthly single and multifamily housing permits data are not revised, and therefore, may not sum to published year-end totals. Page 1: The active rig count is the number of rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. Rig counts provide an indicator of new drilling activity and potential for expanded crude oil or natural gas production. Coal production is shown as production during a given month. Additional Resources Available Agricultural Surveys Manufacturing Survey Energy Survey Regional Economic Analysis Speeches Visit: Banker Resources Economic Indicators Economic Research Educational Tools Page 11: Exports measure the total physical movement of a given product from the to a foreign country. 12