Virginia in the Global Economy: Current Trends and Outlook Virginia International Business Council - February 27, 2013
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1 Virginia in the Global Economy: Current Trends and Outlook Virginia International Business Council - February 27, 2013 Ann Battle Macheras Vice President, Regional Research
2 Overview I. National Economic Trends II. Virginia Economic Trends III. Global Trends How important is the rest of the world to the US? Which countries or regions matter most? Importance of trade to Virginia s economy IV. World Outlook GDP Projections Trade Projections Commodity Prices
3 National Trends
4 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
5 Industrial Production Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics
6 Nonfarm Payroll Employment Average Monthly Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
7 Nonfarm Payroll Employment Average Monthly Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
8 Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
9 Personal Income and Consumption Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics
10 Virginia Trends
11 Virginia Employment Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
12 Virginia Employment Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
13 Virginia Employment Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
14 Virginia Employment Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
15 Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
16 State Personal Income Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
17 Global Trends: U.S.
18 U.S. Exports & Imports of Goods and Services Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
19 U.S. Current Account Balance Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
20 Components of U.S. Current Account Balance Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
21 Major U.S. Goods Exported 2012 Exports (Thous. $) 2011 Exports (Thous. $) YoY% Change Total United States Exports 1,545,553,000 1,479,523, Share of Total in 2012 Rank Transportation Equipment 247,881, ,928, % 1 Computers and Electronic Products 203,690, ,165, % 2 Chemical Manufactures 197,600, ,139, % 3 Machinery 165,721, ,983, % 4 Petroleum & Coal Products 111,554, ,851, % 5 Primary Metal Manufacturing 77,793,190 76,472, % 6 Misc. Manufacturing Commodities 72,042,832 69,693, % 7 Agricultural Products 71,213,187 71,977, % 8 Food & Kindred Products 64,683,641 59,941, % 9 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 45,834,719 42,177, % 10 Source: WISER/Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
22 Major U.S. Trading Partners Note: Data for both goods and services Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
23 Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar. Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
24 Financial Flows Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
25 U.S. Direct Investment Abroad by Region Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
26 Foreign Direct Investment in U.S. by Region Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
27 Global Trends: Virginia
28 Virginia Total Export Value Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
29 Virginia Top Export Products 2012 Exports 2011 Exports YoY% (Thous. $) (Thous. $) Change Total State Exports 18,238,803 18,088, Share of Total in 2012 Chemical Manufactures 3,019,090 2,960, % 1 Transportation Equipment 2,368,053 2,000, % 2 Computer and Electronic Products Rank 2,362,983 2,230, % 3 Machinery 1,765,240 1,752, % 4 Food & Kindred Products 1,166,368 1,102, % 5 Agricultural Products 1,116, , % 6 Paper Products 995, , % 7 Fabricated Metal Products 675, , % 8 Electrical Equipment Applications & Computers Plastics & Rubber Products 548, , % 9 516, , % 10 Source: WISER/Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
30 Top Export Destinations for Virginia Goods Source: WISER/Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
31 Virginia Top Export Destinations 2012 Exports 2011 Exports YoY% (Thous. $) (Thous. $) Change Total State Exports 18,238,803 18,088, Share of Total in 2012 Rank Canada 3,112,871 2,924, % 1 China 2,039,543 1,754, % 2 UK 1,075,611 1,088, % 3 Mexico 1,057, , % 4 Germany 921, , % 5 Brazil 801, , % 6 Japan 476, , % 7 Australia 449, , % 8 Singapore 428, , % 9 Belgium 386, , % 10 Source: WISER/Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
32 Trade-Related Survey Questions
33 Fifth District Responses to Trade Related Survey Question Volume of Import Orders Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
34 Fifth District Responses to Trade Related Survey Question Volume of Export Orders Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
35 Fifth District Responses to Trade Related Survey Question Have you diverted cargo or made other shipping changes as a result of the potential for a US East Coast dockworkers strike? Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
36 Global Prospects
37 Global GDP Growth Source: International Monetary Fund, WEO Update, January 23, 2013
38 Projected Output Growth Advanced Economies Source: International Monetary Fund, WEO Update, January 23, 2013
39 Projected Output Growth Brazil, Russia, India and China Source: International Monetary Fund, WEO Update, January 23, 2013
40 Projected World Trade Volume World Trade Volume Goods and Services IMPORTS f 2014f Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies EXPORTS Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies Source: International Monetary Fund, WEO Update, January 23, 2013
41 Challenges and Opportunities Ahead Some pick-up in world GDP growth but, as in the U.S., 2013 looks much like 2012
42 Challenges and Opportunities Ahead Some pick-up in world GDP growth but, as in the U.S., 2013 looks much like 2012 Uncertainty around forecasts (domestic and global) related to U.S. fiscal uncertainties
43 Challenges and Opportunities Ahead Some pick-up in world GDP growth but, as in the U.S., 2013 looks much like 2012 Uncertainty around forecasts (domestic and global) related to U.S. fiscal uncertainties Financial markets have improved, allowing for more investment as demand solidifies
44 Challenges and Opportunities Ahead Some pick-up in world GDP growth but, as in the U.S., 2013 looks much like 2012 Uncertainty around forecasts (domestic and global) related to U.S. fiscal uncertainties Financial markets have improved, allowing for more investment as demand solidifies European sovereign debt and banking issues confidence has improved
45 The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.
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Global/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June 11-12 2015 2015/SFOM13/002 Session: 1 Global/Regional Economic and Financial
61.0% (June: 61.7%) 41.8 (June: 42.3) 1.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 8.5% Manufacturing Outlook. Expected Growth Rate Over the Next 12 Months
Manufacturing Outlook PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS POSITIVE IN THEIR OWN COMPANY S OUTLOOK 61.0% (June: 61.7%) Small Manufacturers: 48.7% (June: 56.1%) Medium-Sized Manufacturers: 64.0% (June: 64.2%) Large